ACC

[nelsonmuntz]

People are amusing to no end. A new contributor joins the conversation and has the AUDACITY to present a differing viewpoint from two "more established" posters ideas on life in the college realignment landscape... Does so with insight and logic... But he must be wrong, because he's new? Because whoever this person is doesn't have better things to do with his time than make up stories to rile Carl and Nelson's views on life? Surely it can't be that they had erred in their analysis to begin with... That would be inconceivable!

My only problem is that he has presented himself as if he had the ear of God and half the board believes him. He then makes a ridiculous assertion about an OOC series driving expansion decisions. I actually don't agree with most of what he says (I haven't read all his posts), but it is amusing how easy it is for someone to represent they are an " insider" and get the sheep to follow.

 

[FromTheInside]

My only problem is that he has presented himself as if he had the ear of God and half the board believes him. He then makes a ridiculous assertion about an OOC series driving expansion decisions. I actually don't agree with most of what he says (I haven't read all his posts), but it is amusing how easy it is for someone to represent they are an " insider" and get the sheep to follow.

Ok, let me see if I can follow nelsonmuntz logic.........

You don't believe "most" of what I say, but you admit you haven't read all of what I've said. On top of that, you don't believe it, but you haven't offered anything even remotely refuting one single comment I've made over 10 pages of this thread. And then the cherry on top..........I responded to your "doubting" post about ND driving the ACC expansion bus with further insight, and you conveniently have chosen not to respond to it.

Literally, your entire contribution to this thread is about a dozen "I don't believe him" posts. As for "having the ear of God"........I've never claimed anything close to that. I simply explained what I do for a living. How do you think networks, conferences, sports teams, sports entities (PGA, NBA, etc), events (World Cup, Olympics), etc come up with the values they're willing to pay/accept for television, radio, and internet broadcasts. You think every one of them employes a staff of quantitative, qualitative, analytical, and statistical experts??? Please. They hire consultants that specialize in that field. I simply work as an analyst for the top company in that industry niche. So, I hear, see, and read a lot about the inner workings of conferences, realignment, etc. I don't know all, and I've been very clear about my limitation. I have very little exposure to the Pac-12, Fox, and the Big East. I have really strong insight on the Big XII and ACC, and decent insight on the SEC and Big Ten. That's what I've got. Nothing more, nothing less.

As for people "following" me, nobody's following, and I'm not leading. I just think those who are interested, are excited to learn something beyond what's been shared on the board previously. Maybe you should actually read what I write rather than run around shouting "I actually believed you really were an insider" until I put down Carl. Like I've said, I won't be here permanently. I don't need any "cred" or "followers". I'm a Longhorn. I just stopped by to talk realignment. I enjoy discussing the topic with others, and I've tried to be respectful in my approach (though I agree I was harsh with Carl).

 

[tzznandrew]

Ok, let me see if I can follow nelsonmuntz logic.........

You don't believe "most" of what I say, but you admit you haven't read all of what I've said. On top of that, you don't believe it, but you haven't offered anything even remotely refuting one single comment I've made over 10 pages of this thread. And then the cherry on top..........I responded to your "doubting" post about ND driving the ACC expansion bus with further insight, and you conveniently have chosen not to respond to it.

Literally, your entire contribution to this thread is about a dozen "I don't believe him" posts. As for people "following" me, nobody's following, and I'm not leading. I just think those who are interested, are excited to learn something beyond what's been shared on the board previously. Like I've said, I won't be here permanently. I don't need any "cred" or "followers". I'm a Longhorn. I just stopped by to talk realignment.

Keep posting. Whether or not we believe everything you've said, it has been logical and entertaining. I've read and been interested in your posts far more than some of the others.

 

[Dann]

is this a test to see if our fanbase is good enough or redneck enough for the b12?

 

[Mr Blueskin]

Ftinside, I agree, keep posting...i need numbers, in your opinion, what are UConn' s chances of getting into the ACC in the next two years?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Ok, let me see if I can follow nelsonmuntz logic.........

You don't believe "most" of what I say, but you admit you haven't read all of what I've said. On top of that, you don't believe it, but you haven't offered anything even remotely refuting one single comment I've made over 10 pages of this thread. And then the cherry on top..........I responded to your "doubting" post about ND driving the ACC expansion bus with further insight, and you conveniently have chosen not to respond to it.

Literally, your entire contribution to this thread is about a dozen "I don't believe him" posts. As for "having the ear of God"........I've never claimed anything close to that. I simply explained what I do for a living. How do you think networks, conferences, sports teams, sports entities (PGA, NBA, etc), events (World Cup, Olympics), etc come up with the values they're willing to pay/accept for television, radio, and internet broadcasts. You think every one of them employes a staff of quantitative, qualitative, analytical, and statistical experts??? Please. They hire consultants that specialize in that field. I simply work as an analyst for the top company in that industry niche. So, I hear, see, and read a lot about the inner workings of conferences, realignment, etc. I don't know all, and I've been very clear about my limitation. I have very little exposure to the Pac-12, Fox, and the Big East. I have really strong insight on the Big XII and ACC, and decent insight on the SEC and Big Ten. That's what I've got. Nothing more, nothing less.

As for people "following" me, nobody's following, and I'm not leading. I just think those who are interested, are excited to learn something beyond what's been shared on the board previously. Maybe you should actually read what I write rather than run around shouting "I actually believed you really were an insider" until I put down Carl. Like I've said, I won't be here permanently. I don't need any "cred" or "followers". I'm a Longhorn. I just stopped by to talk realignment. I enjoy discussing the topic with others, and I've tried to be respectful in my approach (though I agree I was harsh with Carl).

I am not going to read this whole post. I meant to say I don't DISAGREE with most of what you said. Double negatives are a little tricky with my auto-correct.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I'm still not convinced.

Ok, let me see if I can follow nelsonmuntz logic.........

You don't believe "most" of what I say, but you admit you haven't read all of what I've said. On top of that, you don't believe it, but you haven't offered anything even remotely refuting one single comment I've made over 10 pages of this thread. And then the cherry on top..........I responded to your "doubting" post about ND driving the ACC expansion bus with further insight, and you conveniently have chosen not to respond to it.

Literally, your entire contribution to this thread is about a dozen "I don't believe him" posts. As for "having the ear of God"........I've never claimed anything close to that. I simply explained what I do for a living. How do you think networks, conferences, sports teams, sports entities (PGA, NBA, etc), events (World Cup, Olympics), etc come up with the values they're willing to pay/accept for television, radio, and internet broadcasts. You think every one of them employes a staff of quantitative, qualitative, analytical, and statistical experts??? Please. They hire consultants that specialize in that field. I simply work as an analyst for the top company in that industry niche. So, I hear, see, and read a lot about the inner workings of conferences, realignment, etc. I don't know all, and I've been very clear about my limitation. I have very little exposure to the Pac-12, Fox, and the Big East. I have really strong insight on the Big XII and ACC, and decent insight on the SEC and Big Ten. That's what I've got. Nothing more, nothing less.

As for people "following" me, nobody's following, and I'm not leading. I just think those who are interested, are excited to learn something beyond what's been shared on the board previously. Maybe you should actually read what I write rather than run around shouting "I actually believed you really were an insider" until I put down Carl. Like I've said, I won't be here permanently. I don't need any "cred" or "followers". I'm a Longhorn. I just stopped by to talk realignment. I enjoy discussing the topic with others, and I've tried to be respectful in my approach (though I agree I was harsh with Carl).

Did you know that all UConn football games weren't available to our own local DMA until fall of 2010? The current station that carries that tier of rights, for football and basketball, is based out of NYC, broadcasts to NYC, and in 2011, put in plans to expand it's coverage and braodcasting in the region based on the UConn numbers, and is looking at the possibility of expanding into New Jersey and New York.

It all hinges on being competitive and winning. UConn football against Cincinatti in 2010 drew a 6.1 rating in our DMA. That was a home game, and it invovled an opponent that i promise you....ZERO.....uconn football fans interest in watching on television in spring of 2005, five years earlier, IF....they even had a chance to watch it.

I can't tell you what the ratings were for that game in Cincinatti on TV. I don't know who carried it, or if it was even on......

which is why football programs have been bolting the Big East for other television contract agreements for years.

The big east, I'm confident, is going to get it fixed this time around.

As always, it will hinge on being competitive on the field. If the programs suck, nobody will watch. But again, there is a 10 year track record, starting with UConn, of showing how multiple programs can elevate to national relevance and rankings based on the Big East model of competition. No reason to think that the current incoming programs won't do the same.

 

[Pudge]

MY JOB ... forces me to Value real estate (Institutional) for a living. Further, I teach Finance/Corporate Strategy/Case Study at UAlbany - where we often get into Valuation by taking Free Cash Flow & applying PV discounting on all kinds of assets. I have read this interesting FTI commentary & have thought all along that one key element was missing ... that is YOUR discussion of what is "GOING" to happen. You can apply past history all you want. But, past history is not all that great as a predictor of future performance.

As Carl correctly stated with UConn Football, its just NOT relevant to look at our OOC from 2002-2007 & think we weren't doing what lots of Real Estate players do: Stabilizing an Emerging Development.

And with that ... keep on with this. I am enjoying the dialogue.

 

[Pudge]

What amazes me is that from what I remember, Business Lawyer and I were the only posters who were in favor of the ND series with our home games at NFL stadiums in the northeast instead of the Rent. Today none of the posters who jumped all over the two of us are thumping their chest in this thread.

Not true. I was also in favor. (*where is that miscreant Palatine ... think he talked Hathaway & the Governor out of it)

 

[Rumrunner]

A couple of observations.

First, the fiduciary duty owed to one's firm as well as clients usually trumps one's desire to disseminate "insider" information

Second, since anyone with a computer, a feeble mind and a few moments, can find a UCLA law and MBA degree recipient that currently works in media relations who got his undergrad degree at Texas. That isn't rocket science. For what it's worth, only a few Texas grads per year attend UCLA.

I lied. I have more than a couple of observations. My third obsevation is that anyone smart enough to obtain their mba and jd from ucla would not be foolish enough to violate their obligations found in observation one.

 

[tzznandrew]

A couple of observations.

First, the fiduciary duty owed to one's firm as well as clients usually trumps one's desire to disseminate "insider" information

Second, since anyone with a computer, a feeble mind and a few moments, can find a UCLA law and MBA degree recipient that currently works in media relations who got his undergrad degree at Texas. That isn't rocket science. For what it's worth, only a few Texas grads per year attend UCLA.

I lied. I have more than a couple of observations. My third obsevation is that anyone smart enough to obtain their mba and jd from ucla would not be foolish enough to violate their obligations found in observation one.

Maybe true, but at least this board has been more fun to read.

 

[FromTheInside]

A couple of observations.

First, the fiduciary duty owed to one's firm as well as clients usually trumps one's desire to disseminate "insider" information

Second, since anyone with a computer, a feeble mind and a few moments, can find a UCLA law and MBA degree recipient that currently works in media relations who got his undergrad degree at Texas. That isn't rocket science. For what it's worth, only a few Texas grads per year attend UCLA.

I lied. I have more than a couple of observations. My third obsevation is that anyone smart enough to obtain their mba and jd from ucla would not be foolish enough to violate their obligations found in observation one.

First rule of sharing anything confidential online, never give enough to get your butt in trouble. Second, always cover your tracks. I haven't said anything that would even remotely violate our non-disclosure contracts. And, I've covered my tracks. If you think doing a Texas/UCLA/Media Relations cross reference is going to find me, you're going to be looking a long, long, long time.

 

[Marty Jackson]

The OOC scheduling, especially during the early years when we just moved up, were intended to protect our program and prevent getting blown out. Losing 56-0 doesn't bring in a lot of new fans.
at the same time, not many teams of the ND, Michigan, or Ohio State level are going to schedule a home and home with Uconn. So, in order for Uconn to schedule home games, they've had to look at the regional and lesser 'brands' to play at The Rent...
Can't argue with your facts about Uconn's competition, but this was a specific strategy to help the program grow. Seems that the level of competition is getting better with Michigan and Tennessee signing home and homes.

 

[Rumrunner]

I believe you, which was my point. Which is another way of saying you haven't given us teat-sucklers very much tasty, fresh milk. Certainly nothing from the inside, by your admission. Opinions, sure. Unfortunately as you can tell, opinions matter very little, even though some matter more than others. Maybe one day the boneyard will get our very own Robert Gates.

First rule of sharing anything confidential online, never give enough to get your butt in trouble. Second, always cover your tracks. I haven't said anything that would even remotely violate our non-disclosure contracts. And, I've covered my tracks. If you think doing a Texas/UCLA/Media Relations cross reference is going to find me, you're going to be looking a long, long, long time.

 

[FromTheInside]

The OOC scheduling, especially during the early years when we just moved up, were intended to protect our program and prevent getting blown out. Losing 56-0 doesn't bring in a lot of new fans.
at the same time, not many teams of the ND, Michigan, or Ohio State level are going to schedule a home and home with Uconn. So, in order for Uconn to schedule home games, they've had to look at the regional and lesser 'brands' to play at The Rent...
Can't argue with your facts about Uconn's competition, but this was a specific strategy to help the program grow. Seems that the level of competition is getting better with Michigan and Tennessee signing home and homes.

You & Pudge make great points.

 

[FromTheInside]

I believe you, which was my point. Which is another way of saying you haven't given us teat-sucklers very much tasty, fresh milk. Certainly nothing from the inside, by your admission. Opinions, sure. Unfortunately as you can tell, opinions matter very little, even though some matter more than others. Maybe one day the boneyard will get our very own Robert Gates.

I've given plenty of inside information, but nothing that would get me in trouble. A number of years ago, I learned that lesson the hard way when I said too much on a message board and it spread like wildfire, ending up as a lead in story on ESPN, and talked about for a week and a half nationwide. Not going to make that mistake again. Ha ha. I've given plenty of opinions, but I've given a lot of insight: how TV contracts are valued, how teams are valued, how various teams are valued in relation to others, what teams various conferences are interested in, etc.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Insider - you also said that Notre Dame would make more money in television revenue than they do now, by joining the ACC, and that should ND join a conference, the ACC was in the lead - by a lot....I believe were close to the exact words...not looking bcak to check.....I don't remember if you were specific to just football or if you meant all braodcasting rights....but either way.

You might be, MIGHT be correct that ND may earn more on a yearly basis from television revenue alone with the ACC/ESPN contract - if they were to accept it and give up all tiers of broadcasting rights to ESPN (not happening)....but if so - then they MIGHT make more annually through television revenue alone, than they do currently in 2012, with their multiple deals around broadcasting with the Big East and independantly in football with NBC - and I emphasize....MIGHT. But assuming that would be the case........it doesn't change the fact that the big 10 and big east are both more valueable to ND than the ACC for the non-football athletic deaprtment, and the closest they've ever come to parking their football program in a conference, was the big 10, and it wasn't even close, and the big 10 is more valueable to them than the ACC. When the Big 10 was pitching for ND 12 years ago, the leadership at Miami, and Syracuse, and the like in teh Big EAst, was pitching the Big EAst leadership to go after Notre Dame too......never mind....not going there.

That's just TV revenue too, but you've failed time and again to provide any numbers for what you're saying, so I won't either.... I'll just say that Notre Dame as of right now in 2012, ranks right behind Texas - as the second most valueable college football product out there. Texas ranks #1 because they landed the deal with ESPN - individually. Until then, Notre Dame was #1 in overall value. Notre Dame ranks #2, because they've been negotiating individually for broadcasting rights since 1990, and are still indpendant and keep 100% of any profit they earn in football, and are part of the most valueable (by far) NON-football revenue generating sports conference. Notre Dame only de-values their own product by joining a conference, and they're not going to do it unless they're forced to.

I disagree with you about your analysis of markets and college football broadcasting, in general, because I think that that product that the Big EAst can put out on television in the future, has a much greater potential to generate NEW viewership in a very wide and large range of demographics.

It will not happen overnight, and it will depend on fielding competitive football programs, but the potential for new viewership in the Big East with football coast to coast, and now big east basketball further into florida and now texas, is far greater than any other conference can boast in generating NEW viewership, and you yourself have admitted, that new viewership is the grail.

Have a nice day.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

As for people "following" me, nobody's following, and I'm not leading. I just think those who are interested, are excited to learn something beyond what's been shared on the board previously. Maybe you should actually read what I write rather than run around shouting "I actually believed you really were an insider" until I put down Carl. Like I've said, I won't be here permanently. I don't need any "cred" or "followers". I'm a Longhorn. I just stopped by to talk realignment. I enjoy discussing the topic with others, and I've tried to be respectful in my approach (though I agree I was harsh with Carl).

I find conference realignment in general to be very entertaining as well as pretty stressful being a fan on the outside looking in.

Insider or not, a lot of points you are making seem to be very within reason and certainly great fodder for message board discussions. Hope you continue to post as a lot of us appreciate your insights.

 

[JohnUnitas]

Carl, how many times did you have to repeat the idea that the NBE is going to flourish into the mirror before you started to actually believe it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Ok, let me see if I can follow nelsonmuntz logic.........

You don't believe "most" of what I say, but you admit you haven't read all of what I've said. On top of that, you don't believe it, but you haven't offered anything even remotely refuting one single comment I've made over 10 pages of this thread. And then the cherry on top..........I responded to your "doubting" post about ND driving the ACC expansion bus with further insight, and you conveniently have chosen not to respond to it.

Literally, your entire contribution to this thread is about a dozen "I don't believe him" posts. As for "having the ear of God"........I've never claimed anything close to that. I simply explained what I do for a living. How do you think networks, conferences, sports teams, sports entities (PGA, NBA, etc), events (World Cup, Olympics), etc come up with the values they're willing to pay/accept for television, radio, and internet broadcasts. You think every one of them employes a staff of quantitative, qualitative, analytical, and statistical experts??? Please. They hire consultants that specialize in that field. I simply work as an analyst for the top company in that industry niche. So, I hear, see, and read a lot about the inner workings of conferences, realignment, etc. I don't know all, and I've been very clear about my limitation. I have very little exposure to the Pac-12, Fox, and the Big East. I have really strong insight on the Big XII and ACC, and decent insight on the SEC and Big Ten. That's what I've got. Nothing more, nothing less.

As for people "following" me, nobody's following, and I'm not leading. I just think those who are interested, are excited to learn something beyond what's been shared on the board previously. Maybe you should actually read what I write rather than run around shouting "I actually believed you really were an insider" until I put down Carl. Like I've said, I won't be here permanently. I don't need any "cred" or "followers". I'm a Longhorn. I just stopped by to talk realignment. I enjoy discussing the topic with others, and I've tried to be respectful in my approach (though I agree I was harsh with Carl).

UConn could have schedule 10 games at a site of ND's choosing, and given ND the right to pick 5 players of their choice off UConn's roster every year for the next 10 years, thrown $50 million of cash in the deal, and UConn still would NOT have made the ACC. I like your data, but like a lot of analysts, your conclusions do not make sense.

First off, we have the BCU AD who said on the record that UConn was the first choice for the ACC, but he killed it.

Second, does any conference make major long-term realignment decisions based on a handful of non-conference games? Has that ever happened before? Was Nebraska loading up on Big 10 games or Utah on Pac 12 games prior to those moves? If that was a driver, than ULL would be in the SEC, since they basically play half an SEC schedule every year (sarcasm intended).

The Big East was raided because ESPN wanted to kill it. Notre Dame had little to nothing to do with that. The Big East was on the verge of a big deal with NBC, was adding TCU, and was looking very strong, and ESPN would not tolerate a competitor getting a viable property, so they killed it. BCU's AD said as much.

Now the Big East is a shell of what it was, and the ACC is the next victim because like the Big East before it, the ACC is locked into a long-term TV deal that is well below market. UConn's problem is that the ACC is the only viable conference upgrade, but the ACC is in no position to do anything because of its lousy TV deal. In hindsight, the Big East and ACC would have been better merging and putting their TV contract out to bid, but ESPN pre-empted that, and now both leagues are screwed.

A game against Notre Dame in the Meadowlands of Foxboro (you seem to have forgotten that part of the deal) or the moon was not going to change any of the facts I laid out above.

See, that is how you take apart someone's argument without attacking the poster.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Carl, how many times did you have to repeat the idea that the NBE is going to flourish into the mirror before you started to actually believe it.

The NNBE will be fine, just not in the same class with the other leagues. Since neither you, nor anyone else that likes to bash the Big East has any solutions other than "beg harder", there is no point about complaining about it.

 

[FrostyNuggets]

we have the BCU AD who said on the record that UConn was the first choice for the ACC, but he killed it.

BC has one vote. Who else was against UConn? I doubt Flipper has as much sway as he proclaims.

 

[Carl Spackler]

One vote was all it took to keep Penn State out of the Big East. That's the beauty of democracy.

 

[FrostyNuggets]

One vote was all it took to keep Penn State out of the Big East. That's the beauty of democracy.

Do you believe BC was the sole dissenter? (you only need 2 or 3 letters to answer)

 

[CTMike]

The Big East was raided because ESPN wanted to kill it.

If FTI can comment on this specifically, I'd be very interested to hear his thoughts. No offense Nelson, but it's a little too conspiracy theorist for me.