ACC

Discussion in 'Conference Realignment Board' started by HuskyfanDan, Mar 7, 2012.

  1. HuskyfanDan

    HuskyfanDan #BleedRed

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    stuff everywhere the past couple days about moves
    -fsu thinking about b12
    -clemson would follow fsu
    -gt not hot on the b12 but has been talking to b10
    -ncst/md to the sec
    -uva worried about vt to the sec
    -b10 would be interested in uva/md
    -acc trying to add nd and ruty, full court press

    i think the acc is now realizing that the cuse/pitt add didn't help tv wise much but thats not the issue. the issue is there are going to be 4 big boys a 5th conf that involeves smaller schools who mostly are not big publics then a 6th which is a messy marriage of teams. the acc clearly isn't going to give in so there willing to make sure they have a 16 team league to keep up with others.

    if any 1 team from the southern acc area does make a move, uconn is in good shape imho. if all hell breaks lose and something wild happens then a worst case for uconn is being in the acc which would be the 5th best fball conf but the best bball conf. if something wild does happen the worst would be something like miami/duke/wake/pitt/cuse/bc among others in the acc and uconn would be a easy add for them. that would put us with teams we can live with fball wise and all other sports would be fine.

    what seems to be floating around is that fsu/clem/lville/byu to the b12 with gt possibly going with a tulane type to give them 16 and a east/west division setup. in that case the sec will match 16 quick grabbing ncst and 1 of vt/md. then we are gold for the acc but can still hold out hope for that chance the b10 wants to go east.

    i think this summer were going to see some fireworks!
  2. Fishy

    Fishy Your Cruise Director

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    We're not going to the Big Ten. If by some miracle we did, I will name all of your first born children after whichever UConn official made it happen - if you'd already named your first born, I would rename them and you'd have to live with it.

    Florida State and Clemson are not going to the Big 12. If their presidents so much as mentioned that it might be a good idea, they'd find themselves held over for a 72-hour observation period at the nut hut.

    There are weird rumors about Georgia Tech, Virginia and the Big Ten - that is message board nonsense.

    Maryland is not going to the SEC.

    If the Big Ten is interested in anyone, you'd likely find out about it the day the Big Ten wanted you to find out.

    Virginia would never be worried about Virginia Tech going anywhere because they never wanted Virginia Tech in the ACC to start with - if Virginia Tech wanted to go to the SEC, Virginia would help them pack.

    Nothing is on the front burner right now and I don't expect any fireworks or even those lil sparkler things this summer. It's deep breath time for the conferences and expansion will stop for the time being.

    Louisville will eventually end up in the Big 12. That's really the next domino to fall - and maybe the last for a while, at least in terms of impact to us.

    Some day, the SEC will add two teams. The ACC, other than Virginia, will probably have a very bad day when that happens. I will be seriously entertained by the carnage.
    Jericho and UCFBfan like this.
  3. CTMike

    CTMike Mullet Powered

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    While I'd love for Uconn to find its way out of this NNBE clusterflock... it would be a shame to go ACC only to see it get torn apart.
  4. ZooCougar

    ZooCougar Popular Poster

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    It would be kind of funny if we ended up in an ACC that ultimately had Rutgers, Miami, Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh and others. We could just rename it the Big East or something.
    UConnDan97 likes this.
  5. Fishy

    Fishy Your Cruise Director

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    I don't give a s*** if it loses two schools to the SEC as long as we don't have to see Southern Methodist or Central Florida or Temple or any of the other mid-major s*** tacos that we're gonna start seeing soon.
  6. Butch

    Butch Balto's keeper

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    This reminds me of sports fans.

  7. gioff23

    gioff23 Popular Poster

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    The problem with those rumors is that they completely ignore the Pac12, who will not stand still or be cut off at the border. The b12 is in panic mode, not the ACC. The members of that interim conference all know UT and OU have their eyes elsewhere and they are trapped in a prisoners dilemma. Anyone recall a few months ago BU and ISU reaching out to the BE? While I agree the movement towards a superconference is seemingly unstoppable - OU would go west before being trapped in that conference, and Larry Scott would be more than willing to oblige. And I also agree that FSU and Clemson are not moving to play football in tornado alley. Next rumor.
  8. nelsonmuntz

    nelsonmuntz Popular Poster

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    I think the Pac 12 train wreck on the field and on the court will cause them to revisit expansion sooner than later. They need more quality programs, because the LA schools can not carry basketball (UCLA) and football (USC) by themselves. Oregon is an entertaining novelty, but even with all the millions from their TV deal the Pac 12 continues to suck and has no national following, in a large part because people in LA, San Fran and Arizona don't give a s*** about college sports because they are too busy enjoying the fact that it doesn't snow, ever.

    The Pac 12 could expand at any time, because unlike the ACC or SEC, they don't need a network's permission to add teams. Oklahoma and Texas solve a lot of inventory problems that Utah and Colorado did not, and if OU and UT want to bring their little brothers along, no big deal, and they would pay for themselves immediately. It really is just a question of how much autonomy Texas needs.
  9. mattp

    mattp Popular Poster

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    personally i think the ACC added Cuse and Pitt because they expect to lose some teams and wanted to be proactive. if they lose say FSU and Clemson to the SEC b/c they're ramping up their numbers, the ACC might have been in a position where they had to compete with the B1G for Cuse or Pitt. now they don't have to and if they lose two teams they'll still have 12.
    CTMike likes this.
  10. Nostical

    Nostical Popular Poster

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    Hey Fishy, please name my daughter Susan.
  11. freescooter

    freescooter Popular Poster

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    Fishy if I had a son, I'd name him Susan if she gets us into the Big 10!
  12. vowelguy

    vowelguy AEIOU

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    As oppposed to all those days when there hasn't been stuff everywhere about moves. (And by the why, just which days were those?)

    There have been about a zillion different proposed moves that we're "just about to happen." 99.9999% of them have not come to fruition.
  13. husky10

    husky10 Popular Poster

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    Too bad I like the rumors of UCONN going somewhere better
  14. HuskyHawk

    HuskyHawk Popular Poster

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    Johnny Cash would approve
  15. Murph

    Murph Popular Poster

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    It shows you where we are in the pecking order when we're trying to get into a conference that others considering leaving.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
  16. ConnHuskBask

    ConnHuskBask Shut Em Down!

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    Where, 1a and 1b with Rutgers? For every Rutgers and ND to ACC/Big10 there's a UConn and ND one to go with it.

    I hope UConn goes somewhere with Rutgers ultimately. I want to keep our football rivalry going.
  17. FromTheInside

    FromTheInside Popular Poster

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    Florida State & Clemson are far more realistic than you realize. I'm a valuations analyst, and have worked with every network in the business on determining the value of teams, sports, conferences, etc to networks..everything from the SEC for CBS to the Olympics for NBC. The ACC is essentially a pretty gazelle, feeding along the banks of the Okavongo river delta, unaware that as they drink, crocodiles are sneaking up on them under the murky water. "Fans" look at the Big XII and think they're weak and vulnerable. Far from it. They "were" vulnerable, but they're not anymore. They are one of only 2 conferences that has signed over all of their Tier 1 and Tier 2 TV rights to their conference (the Pac-12 is the other). If any team leaves the conference in the next 6 years, the conference retains the revenue and TV rights from all of their home games. And, there's talk of extending that to 10 years. So, nobody's leaving, b/c they'd forfeit all of their TV revenue for 6 years.

    Further, as it stands, the Big XII makes more than the ACC, and that's not changing. Staring this year, the ACC will make just under $13M per team. It's actually less than that, b/c they're on an accelerated plan, which increases the payout year after year for the 12 year contract with ESPN/ABC. At best, with Pitt & Syracuse in the fold, that number will move to $15M per team. The Big XII on the other hand, is slated to make $15M per team. But, they will be signing a new contract with ABC or NBC in the next couple of years (to start in 2016), and that contract WILL BE in the $100M - $125M per year range (based on 19 games purchased per year for football). That will put their total Tier 1 & Tier 2 payout at $19M - $25M per team per year. But, where the Big XII really hurts the ACC is in the fact that the ACC payout is for Tier 1, 2 & 3.. The Big XII will get $19M - $25M per team for just Tier 1 & Tier 2. On top of that number, all teams have the right to sell their Tier 3, as Texas did w/ the Longhorn Network. Texas brings in $15M per year (also and escalating contract), with $5M per year going to academics (so $10M net). Kansas will make over $8M this year. Oklahoma State will make approximately $7M. Iowa State will make $3M. You get the picture. So, on top of the $19M - $25M, all Big XII teams will make at least $1M more, and up to $10M more, just on Tier 3.

    Presently, the Big XII's Fox Sports contract is undervalued. If they add any teams, they can open up that contract as well. Now, take all of that and imagine adding the Florida and South Carolina markets to their contracts. I can tell you, based on both team's valuation, it will put the conference in the $28M - $34.5M per team per year range. So, tell me again how crazy the FSU and Clemson Presidents would be to listen to the Big XII..

    I have no inside info on if the Big XII has contacted or will contact those teams. That's not the side of the business I'm on. But, I can tell you that if they do......they would be able to make an offer that literally no other conference could make, aside from possibly the SEC. And, the reason I say possibly the SEC is b/c they're currently working with ESPN and CBS to rework their contracts. I think it's possible they could get into the upper $20M range with those additions, and if both networks are being fair (which they don't have to be, b/c they have no competition with the SEC is under contract), that number will be in the low $30M range. I realize it sounds absurd that the Big XII could make an offer that no one else could make (save for maybe the SEC once their TV contracts are reworked), especially giving the turmoil in that conference and the defections they've faced. But, the SEC can't add Florida or South Carolina, b/c they already own it. And, Big Ten sure isn't coming calling. So, FSU's value & Clemson's value isn't as high to the SEC as it would be to the Big XII. If there were some sort of 3-4 team package of Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State, etc.....the Big XII absolutely would hit the $30M per team per year mark. Absolutely zero question about it.

    The ACC is a crocodile meal; they just don't know it yet. B/c, there isn't a single team in the country they can add, other than Notre Dame, that will put their annual revenue into the realm of the Big Ten or SEC, or the Big XII once their Tier 1 deal is done. So, unless they put up a monumental buy out (which they tried and was shot down by....Florida State, Clemson, Maryland, and Miami), or they convey their TV rights to the conference for a lengthy period of time (it's already been proposed and shot down), there is nothing that will prevent the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII from poaching them. If Notre Dame suddenly decides they want to join a conference, then the ACC is safe, b/c the TV payouts will come up. That is literally the only thing that can save them from poaching, unless there's a change of heart on signing over media rights or raising the buyout to $40M+.
    huskymedic likes this.
  18. CTMike

    CTMike Mullet Powered

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    Really excellent insights. On a selfish note, I hope you will tell us that UConn will be okay, but regardless I hope you continue to contribute.
    UConnDan97 likes this.
  19. MilliniumPrince

    MilliniumPrince Popular Poster

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    I agree, I think the Big 12 is fine. I believe the Big 10 will look to add a southern school or two because of demographic and population trends. I think FSU and Clemson will receive offers they can't refuse from someone outside the ACC at some point.
  20. uconndogs

    uconndogs Popular Poster

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    Wow! That's a great post and certainly appears knowledgable.

    I hope it is, because it is promising for UCONN.
  21. FromTheInside

    FromTheInside Popular Poster

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    I think UConn will end up in the ACC eventually if Notre Dame doesn't. But, if ND doesn't, the ACC is the new Big East. Unfortunately for UConn, it doesn't have a strong TV draw outside it's market, even for basketball. Fans may not realize it, but Hathaway epically screwed the program when he cancelled the series with Notre Dame. You want presence in Manhattan? You want TV appeal that will make conferences do a double-take? Play an annual series with Notre Dame, with every other game in New York City (or w/in its reaches). That seriously was a classic example of putting ego ahead of sense. Of course, UConn didn't realize trouble was brewing on the realignment landscape. But regardless, that is a series that would have landed them in the ACC ahead of Syracuse had they kept it. UConn & Syracuse have very similar valuations. The reason Syracuse went in over UConn is b/c Notre Dame has scheduled a series with them, and they have talked about cancelling one of their Big Ten annual rivalry games to extend it. Syracuse is a carrot. UConn could have been that carrot, but the powers that be thought they were too big to be a carrot. So, now they're stuck in a dying conference that they could have gotten out of.
  22. Carl Spackler

    Carl Spackler this time, we didn't forget the gravy

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    Interesting. I agree that the ACC is not the shiny happy place that it is made out to be. I also think that Neinas went into the Big 12 as commissioner and really did a good job of stabilizing that conference as far as revenue streams around television are concerned. Which should not come as a surprise if you know anythign about Chuck Neinas and college football broadcasting.

    I don't think that any of the power players in that conference are going to be happy with West Virginia once they actually get to the real business of athletic competition among all the sports that a 1-A athletic department needs to field. But they're married now, for a good amount of time.

    I hope that John Marinatto has learned quite a bit in the past 3 years, because he'll need to do a hell of a job at the negotiating table starting in a few months.

    I also agree that Notre Dame is the keystone holding up the current state of affairs in college football. Notre Dame joins a conference, and things will change dramatically from coast to coast, as long as they remain independant, combined with no TRUE playoff for a national title - involving all 1-A conference champions....the college football landscape will continue to be dictated by the flow of broadcasting revenue contracts, as has been teh case since 1984.

    I'm curious though, based on what you've written and what you say your insight is into all of this..... - what your opinion is of the Big East conference's ability, starting in 2013, to schedule football games in all four time zones,? Which - clearly - means that Big East football games (and also games in the new merged in discussion of non-AQ BCS programs) can be scheduled and broadcast without overlapping broadcasting windows for marquee matchups.

    No other current AQ conference, can schedule for broadcasting purposes with that kind of flexibility and potential viewership reach.

    I see this as a distinct advantage for the big east in television negotiations, and as somethign that will also be desireable for television networks.
  23. MattMang23

    MattMang23 General Pain in the Ass

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    Oh god, the boneyard's resident author of odyssean posts responded to the longest post ever.
    AJC88 likes this.
  24. FrostyNuggets

    FrostyNuggets Popular Poster

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    There were a lot of people here who thought we were too big to be a carrot.
  25. FromTheInside

    FromTheInside Popular Poster

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    It's not that big of a feather in their cap. For starters, in every market, there are more favorable match ups they'll be going up against. Sure, it's nice that there are fewer scheduling conflicts for the Big East. But, any network that would bid on the Big East already has better conferences, with better match ups, locked up. In the EST, they battle the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC. In the CST, they battle the Big XII, SEC, and Big Ten. In the PST, they battle the Pac-12.

    Beyond that, b/c the BE is so spread out now, they miss out on one of the most important components of any TV contract (w/ regards to college sports)......regional dominance. In the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, fans watch the other teams in their conference. Georgia fans watch Florida games, Michigan fans watch tOSU, Texas fans watch OU games, and on and on. There is a collective interest in the conference b/c of shared commonality AND regional rivalry. One of the reasons the SEC got such a landmark deal years ago is b/c almost every team in the conference (save for Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Miss State) turn on TVs in states other than their home state & their opponent's home state. The Big XII and Big Ten also have a lot of that (though not as strongly). The Big East may have teams in markets across all 4 time zones, but does anybody in Philadelphia care one iota about San Diego State or Memphis or Central Florida (and vice versa)? Nope. It was a mistake for the BE to spread out. A conference's TV revenue generating power is partly in their national appeal, and partly in their regional dominance.

    Unfortunately, the Big East doesn't have a single football school that generates virtually any TV draw outside their home state or their opponent's home state other than Boise State. And, Boise State's draw is based more on novelty than genuine fandom. As soon as they have an off season, their additional viewership is gone. So, "spanning the country" has almost no value to a TV contract unless the teams involved generate interest outside their region.
    junglehusky likes this.
  26. Carl Spackler

    Carl Spackler this time, we didn't forget the gravy

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    Do you have numbers to back up what you're talking about? Just curious.

    I completely agree with what your saying BTW about fans watching other games than their own team. It's not going to be normal for UConn football fan to tune into a San Diego State vs. Houston game.

    At first. I think it will probably catch on quicker than you might think though, as long as it's marketed and broadcasted well.

    I think that if there would be a poll here among UConn football fans you'd find that the majority of them had zero interest in watching say, a Rutgers vs. Louisville football game 5 years ago. Or espcially a South Florida v. Cincinatti game. I'd bet you'd find a lot of UConn fans around here, and out there, that have tuned into those games on a college football saturday or evening and watched as well as many say Louisivlle football fans, who have never turned into a UConn game prior to 2006, have watched say a UConn v. Rutgers game.

    What you're talkign about takes time there, and I don't think is that big of a deal.

    I also understand the big east is going to be going head to head with marquee matchups in other time zones. But that's no different than those current programs across the zones are already doing. A San Diego State or SMU football game scheduled at the same time as a USC or Texas game is going to draw less, irrespective of conference affiliation.

    But there's the flexibility I'm talking about. If San Diego State is scheduled to play a home game, or Boise has a home game.....that west coast start time can be put anywhere between 12-6pm PST, so as not to conflict with the USC or UCLA or Arizona or Oregon games being played that day.and still be in Prime Time on the east coast and not affect the Big East matchups being broadcast on the east coast earlier in the day...

    and I guarantee you that if Boise is playing a home game in November, at 3:30pm PST, and there's a UConn v. Temple game being played at 3:30pm EST that has implications on the post season.people on the west coast are watching that UConn v. Temple game at 12:30 local time for them. Just an example.

    Conversely, a primetime 3:30pm EST or 8:00 EST game on the east coast, can be broadcast on the west coast.

    So I disagree that it's a minor thing, and I think it provides the Big EAst with flexibility in scheduling kickoff times that can't be matched by any other conference out there when it comes to avoiding exactly what you're talking about - conflicts in head to head competition for viewership.

    The NFL has capitalized on being able to schedule football games and avoid the kind of thing you're talking about through all four time zones for many years.

    The key will be in being able to follow the NFL model, and be able to work with the broadcasting companies to decide what game would be a national broadcast, while the other games are carried regionally. I don't know if Taglibue is still involved with the Big East, but he would be very helpful in negotiations when it comes to that.

    I posted an article around here somewhere about the cartel behavior of college football broadcasting over the years. That model of creating false demand by restricting access, needs to be broken. Take a look at it.
  27. Carl Spackler

    Carl Spackler this time, we didn't forget the gravy

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    Memphis and Louisville in their time zone.....

    Their kickoff times can be scheduled around say a Tennessee game, either forward or back and still be able to reach somewhere in the country in primetime.....

    What it all really means negatively for the Big East is that home fans, like me, that actually go to the games rather than watch on TV, would have to really get used to not knowing when football games are going to kick, up to a few days prior to game day, and that would probably extend to the entire season, rather than just to what we already experience with conference game kickoff times being held until the week before game day.
  28. Carl Spackler

    Carl Spackler this time, we didn't forget the gravy

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    The other model - the one that I hope shows up - that the ACC....oops...that ESPN really wants.. involves scheduling around Notre Dame.

    Notre Dame

    Notre Dame schedule's their kickoff times whenever they want. The Big East, for all the reasons you state, will need to be in constant motion around scheduling for football to get the best time slots and viewership reaches.

    But if you can put Notre Dame into the scheduling mix? Now you've got your scheduling focal point. Much like the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL, and a handful of other franchises regularly get the national timeslot, and the rest of the league games are sent out regionally and scheduled around them...

    the big east, if a deal could somehow be reached that involves Notre Dame scheduling, could do the exact same thing. Just like on NFL game day, you see the next week's broadcasts listed and advertised, with the national games, and then regional ones listed....

    The big east could be doing the same thing. Notre Dame is going to get the national broadcast, two other big east games (four other big east teams, can potentially have national broadcasts on any saturday and then the remaining games would go out regionally coast to coast. With 14 teams in the league, that means that every single program would get several....SEVERAL....national broadcasts each season.

    You think the ACC....oops, excuse....me ESPN.....doesn't want that? Or any other conference?

    Notre Dame has been an albatross to the Big East conference, even though the conference has provided them the exact kind of shelter they need for their athletic department. It's long overdue, that the conference and Notre Dame starts to do what's right.

    Notre Dame is now the lead player in Big East expansion decisions - I believe ND has sat at the head of the expansion committee all along.

    I hope I've got my finger on the pulse of all of this, and if not, God willing, somehow somebody in Providence will get this thought process going.
  29. upstater

    upstater Popular Poster

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    I've never understood this whole idea about demographic trends.

    Schools are not increasing admission spots, but the demographic #s are increasing nationwide
  30. Fishy

    Fishy Your Cruise Director

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    I am not a valuations analyst and will take you at your word that you are...and will therefore defer to your experience.

    Thanks for the knowledge.

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