AAC/UConn Bracketology

[Balker]

As of 11/30 Joe Lunardi has:
Wichita St at a 2
Cincinnati as a 3
SMU as 10
Temple as 11

UConn foes so far:
MSU as a 1
Ark as an 8
Oregon as 11

Upcoming:
Zona as 6
Syracuse as First 4 out
Nova as a 1

Given our current resume, I think we should be a bubble team. But perception is working against us. A win against Cuse and Zona would go a long way. But Zona might be a big ask. Nova will be a huge one. Need a winning record in AAC for sure.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Way too early. One thing we often forget is that by March, the details are forgotten. Arkansas...that’s just an L. Columbia, that’s just a W. Get enough Ws against enough quality opponents and you get in. Doesn’t matter if your wins and losses are both ugly.


There are plenty of games left to win.

 

[Guapo]

Way too early. One thing we often forget is that by March, the details are forgotten. Arkansas...that’s just an L. Columbia, that’s just a W. Get enough Ws against enough quality opponents and you get in. Doesn’t matter if your wins and losses are both ugly.


There are plenty of games left to win.

The most sane thing I've read here all day

 

[businesslawyer]

As of 11/30 Joe Lunardi has:
Wichita St at a 2
Cincinnati as a 3
SMU as 10
Temple as 11

UConn foes so far:
MSU as a 1
Ark as an 8
Oregon as 11

Upcoming:
Zona as 6
Syracuse as First 4 out
Nova as a 1

Given our current resume, I think we should be a bubble team. But perception is working against us. A win against Cuse and Zona would go a long way. But Zona might be a big ask. Nova will be a huge one. Need a winning record in AAC for sure.

I would point out that, while I understand some of the KO criticisms, the chart shows how incredibly overblown the reaction to our start is. We're 4-0 in games we should have won, and we're 1-2 against tourney teams, with a win over a bubble team in their home state and one of the losses having been to what is clearly one of the best teams in the country. Yes, the wins against dogpoop haven't been impressive enough, and one of the two losses was by a horrific margin, but they don't hire or pay coaches based on margin of wins and losses -- they pay them for wins and fire them for losses. And so far, from that perspective, the season is fine.

I get we need to get better, but I still believe what I said when we beat Oregon -- we can play better than that. Among other things, we got no contribution in that game from either Vital or Diarra. We have to get healthy and we have to get better. But not blowing out teams that you're still beating is not the time to be panic stricken. Let's make sure we don't lose Saturday and then see how we do against Syracuse.

 

[Balker]

Way too early. One thing we often forget is that by March, the details are forgotten. Arkansas...that’s just an L. Columbia, that’s just a W. Get enough Ws against enough quality opponents and you get in. Doesn’t matter if your wins and losses are both ugly.


There are plenty of games left to win.

I mean yeah, it's early. But the season is basically comprised of 5 sections of 7 games. We just finished our first section of 7 games. So, at least for me (maybe for others), I think it's helpful to know where we are right now and what opportunities we still have to move the needle. Because as of today, it's "out". We have four more sections to change it.

To your point, I think the "perception" part of the loss to Ark and MSU go away, as long as we give it a reason to go away and it isn't part of a trend of us getting blown out by 20+ by every good team. Just two losses that need some more good wins to balance them out.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I mean yeah, it's early. But the season is basically comprised of 5 sections of 7 games. We just finished our first section of 7 games. So, at least for me (maybe for others), I think it's helpful to know where we are right now and what opportunities we still have to move the needle. Because as of today, it's "out". We have four more sections to change it.

To your point, I think the "perception" part of the loss to Ark and MSU go away, as long as we give it a reason to go away and it isn't part of a trend of us getting blown out by 20+ by every good team. Just two losses that need some more good wins to balance them out.

I've never heard of this "segment" thing. For me it's one game at a time. Next up, Monmouth. They are 3-4, but two losses were to SH and UVA. Won't be a cupcake game. You mentioned Arizona, but forget that game. We need to beat Auburn. They are 5-1, just beat Dayton on the road. That's a top 100 borderline top 50 RPI game we can win. Cuse is another. Coppin State was crushed by RU, so that should be an easy W. If we go into the first WSU game at 9-3 we are in pretty good shape. Several winnable games after WSU before we play Nova.

 

[Balker]

I've never heard of this "segment" thing.

Oh I made it up. I just meant the season+AAC tourney is about 20% over.

 

[Hi-Low]

I've never heard of this "segment" thing. For me it's one game at a time. Next up, Monmouth. They are 3-4, but two losses were to SH and UVA. Won't be a cupcake game. You mentioned Arizona, but forget that game. We need to beat Auburn. They are 5-1, just beat Dayton on the road. That's a top 100 borderline top 50 RPI game we can win. Cuse is another. Coppin State was crushed by RU, so that should be an easy W. If we go into the first WSU game at 9-3 we are in pretty good shape. Several winnable games after WSU before we play Nova.

For me to seriously consider UConn a tourney team we need 2 more good non-conf wins and splits with WSU / Cincy .....can't go 0-4 vs 2 top teams in ACC. If we can't beat WSU & Cincy at home then we will have a tough time making the tourney I think.

 

[HuskyHawk]

For me to seriously consider UConn a tourney team we need 2 more good non-conf wins and splits with WSU / Cincy .....can't go 0-4 vs 2 top teams in ACC. If we can't beat WSU & Cincy at home then we will have a tough time making the tourney I think.

Two more "good wins" OOC, so two from Cuse, Auburn, Zona and Nova? I don't buy the split with Cinci and WSU. It depends on how we play against Temple, SMU, UCF and anybody else who is decent (Houston maybe?). 1-3 against the top two is ok if we get strong wins against the others or OOC.

Right now, all the rankings and projections are utter garbage. Every team in the AAC except ECU has a winning record at the moment. All the bigger leagues are like that.

 

[upstater]

As of 11/30 Joe Lunardi has:
Wichita St at a 2
Cincinnati as a 3
SMU as 10
Temple as 11

UConn foes so far:
MSU as a 1
Ark as an 8
Oregon as 11

Upcoming:
Zona as 6
Syracuse as First 4 out
Nova as a 1

Given our current resume, I think we should be a bubble team. But perception is working against us. A win against Cuse and Zona would go a long way. But Zona might be a big ask. Nova will be a huge one. Need a winning record in AAC for sure.

UConn is obviously not anywhere near a tournament team.

That being said, what could possibly be the basis for Oregon getting into the tournament since they lost to UConn, and they don't have any impressive wins.

 

[Wordbomar]

For me to seriously consider UConn a tourney team we need 2 more good non-conf wins and splits with WSU / Cincy .....can't go 0-4 vs 2 top teams in ACC. If we can't beat WSU & Cincy at home then we will have a tough time making the tourney I think.

This is fair except I think it’s ok if we go 0-4 against those guys as long as we take care of business otherwise. 12-6 or 13-5 in conference play with 4 losses to WSU/Cincy is still a damn good conference season

 

[Hi-Low]

This is fair except I think it’s ok if we go 0-4 against those guys as long as we take care of business otherwise. 12-6 or 13-5 in conference play with 4 losses to WSU/Cincy is still a damn good conference season

Two more "good wins" OOC, so two from Cuse, Auburn, Zona and Nova? I don't buy the split with Cinci and WSU. It depends on how we play against Temple, SMU, UCF and anybody else who is decent (Houston maybe?). 1-3 against the top two is ok if we get strong wins against the others or OOC.
Right now, all the rankings and projections are utter garbage. Every team in the AAC except ECU has a winning record at the moment. All the bigger leagues are like that.

Maybe 1-3 would be ok against WSU & Cincy but they are clearly the class of the league and in the end they might be the only really meaningful wins in the AAC....and yes we need 2 wins out of Cuse, Auburn, Zona, Nova. If we go 0-4 vs Cincy & WSU and fail to beat any of the "good" non-conf teams what wins are we exactly hanging our hats on?

I know this sort of ridiculous to discuss now but given how the team looked against good teams (and bad teams) I hope they are able to get it together soon.

 

[Bagel&Cheese]

Thanks for the info but I just can't even think that far ahead. It's still November and we are so far away from being a tournament team.

 

[Travelman6]

they pay them for wins and fire them for losses. And so far, from that perspective, the season is fine.

Yes, you get fired for losses but sometimes fired quicker for ugly losses. Look what happened to that Miami coach a few years back. Was going to get fired at the end of the year, lost 58-0 and that sure as heck sped things up. If Uconn has even 1 or 2 more ugly losses, especially to beatable and comparable teams (like Temple or Auburn) it will speed things up quicker than 2 OT games vs the same team.

 

[don356]

The AAC is definitely stronger this year in my opinion so it will at least provide better opportunities in conference.

 

[businesslawyer]

Yes, you get fired for losses but sometimes fired quicker for ugly losses. Look what happened to that Miami coach a few years back. Was going to get fired at the end of the year, lost 58-0 and that sure as heck sped things up. If Uconn has even 1 or 2 more ugly losses, especially to beatable and comparable teams (like Temple or Auburn) it will speed things up quicker than 2 OT games vs the same team.

You think football is like basketball? That's so cute.

 

[lange10]

This is fair except I think it’s ok if we go 0-4 against those guys as long as we take care of business otherwise. 12-6 or 13-5 in conference play with 4 losses to WSU/Cincy is still a damn good conference season

Beating SMU and Temple has never been easy for us and both are very solid again. The WTF loss will happen, just accept it. With that said, we can't go 0-4 vs Cincy/WSU. If that's the case I'd guess our conference record is at or around .500, unfortunately.

EDIT: Is our eventual loss to Tulsa even considered a "WTF loss" anymore?

 

[Wordbomar]

Beating SMU and Temple has never been easy for us and both are very solid again. The WTF loss will happen, just accept it. With that said, we can't go 0-4 vs Cincy/WSU. If that's the case I'd guess our conference record is at or around .500, unfortunately.

EDIT: Is our eventual loss to Tulsa even considered a "WTF loss" anymore?

I don’t disagree with you! I’m just saying that it’s deff possible to be 0-4 and be fine

 

[Travelman6]

You think football is like basketball? That's so cute.

Um, no I don't. Knock it off with the condescending nonsense if you have nothing of value to add. Thanks!

 

[businesslawyer]

Um, no I don't. Knock it off with the condescending nonsense if you have nothing of value to add. Thanks!

And yet, you ther into the discussion what happened to a football coach.

 

[Travelman6]

OMG an analogy, woooh!

 

[pj]

It's simple -- so far we look like we're somewhere between #50 and #100 in the country, and #5 to #6 in the conference depending on whether we can nose out UCF for 5th place. This is no surprise -- it's about where people projected us preseason, and about where we were last year.

But, we have the talent to be better than that; the players have hardly played together and there is not much chemistry, moreover they are not healthy. If the team gets healthy and comes together, it's plausible we can get onto the NCAA tourney bubble and fight SMU and Temple for 3rd place in the conference.

Let's see how things play out. A great coach would have the team playing better, but I think KO deserves some credit for taking what was a potential total implosion in April and getting us back to last year's quality by start of season. Let's see if he can build something with these players. He surprised us in 2014, maybe he'll surprise us in a good way again.

 

[Travelman6]

It's simple -- so far we look like we're somewhere between #50 and #100 in the country, and #5 to #6 in the conference depending on whether we can nose out UCF for 5th place. This is no surprise -- it's about where people projected us preseason, and about where we were last year.

But, we have the talent to be better than that; the players have hardly played together and there is not much chemistry, moreover they are not healthy. If the team gets healthy and comes together, it's plausible we can get onto the NCAA tourney bubble and fight SMU and Temple for 3rd place in the conference.

Let's see how things play out. A great coach would have the team playing better, but I think KO deserves some credit for taking what was a potential total implosion in April and getting us back to last year's quality by start of season. Let's see if he can build something with these players. He surprised us in 2014, maybe he'll surprise us in a good way again.

I think Uconn will get to the point where they nose out UCF. In fact, I think they will fight with Temple for 4th and both will be behind smu and it might be closer than you think. Conference standings will likely look like this: WSU, Cincy, SMU, Temple or Uconn, UCF (or perhaps Uconn all the way down here), Houston, Memphis or Tulane...etc.. Tulane will shock some people too and I can imagine them as high as 7th, perhaps finishing ahead of Houston even and with at least one close game vs Uconn. Or, do they only play Uconn once this year?

 

[jibsey]

This is probaby a dumb question but based on what we have seen so far, why will we not be fighting for our lives in almost every AAC game?

 

[navery12]

This is probaby a dumb question but based on what we have seen so far, why will we not be fighting for our lives in almost every AAC game?

I certainly don't think we're a surefire tournament team or anything, but outside of the top 3 of WSU, Cincy, SMU I don't think anyone is definitively better than us on any given night. Especially given that we're still about a month away from the start of conference games and the cohesiveness should improve a bit. I won't try and argue we're gonna win the conference or anything, but there's no reason we can't win the 13 games against the non-top 3.

Now that most likely adds up to a .500 record in conference, and that's not good enough. But I'd expect us to be in the vast majority of conference games. Hopefully in the future we're talking about dominating the games we're just close in now, and competing with the top teams every game as opposed to on our best nights