UConn-Notre Dame Game Preview

by doggydaddy

UConn at Notre Dame – Monday March 4th, 2013 , 7:00 PM.

TV – ESPN2

UConn – 27-2 overall, 14-1 conference
Notre Dame – 27-1 overall, 15-0 conference

Overview –

Notre Dame – ND comes in on a 22 game winning streak. They have been playing excellent basketball with a couple of close calls against Uconn, South Florida, Villanova and Syracuse. Diggins has been playing like the 1st team AA she was last year, and even better at times. She can dominate a game from the point guard spot both offensively and defensively and can be the difference in this game. McBride has been excellent at well. In some ways, she reminds me of Shea, with her physical dominance from the small forward position. While not a great long distance shooter, she somehow finds a way to make them against Uconn. Achonwa has been solid all season. But there is no doubt that Dolson is a tough match-up for her. Braker has done the job for ND. She is a terrific role player, making the occasional big play. The big question is Loyd. She was injured in the SU game last week. McGraw said Loyd must still pass a concussion test over the next two days in order to be cleared for this game.

UCONN – As I posted in the South Florida analysis, since the loss to Balyor, Uconn appears to be back on track. They have won the last three games by 60, 40 and 35 points. Dolson and KML were spectacular against USF and are playing at an AA level. It’s disappointing to see that Hartley has slipped even more with the 0-11 game against USF. Her defense has been solid but Uconn would like nothing better than to have her make a few baskets. Geno had appeared to be getting Stewart going again but only played her 12 minutes against USF. She did contribute 3 blocks. Stewart is a tough match-up for ND so expect her to get solid minutes. Tuck was a surprise starter and that was mostly a match-up issue for Doty. We will see what he does against ND. It’s important for Geno to get the bench going including Stokes and she did see some time on Saturday and played well.

UCONN
Starters
G – Doty 5’10” SR (3.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.4 apg)
G – Hartley 5’9” JR (8.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.5 apg)
F – Faris 5’11” SR (10.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.1 apg)
F – KML SO 6’ (17.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.4 apg)
C – Dolson 6’5” (14.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 3.2 apg)

Bench
Stewart 6’4″ FR ( 12.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.0 apg)
Tuck FR 6’2” (6.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Jefferson FR 5’7″ (4.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.8 apg)
Stokes SO 6’3″ (2.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .8 apg)

Coach – Geno Auriemma

NOTRE DAME

Starters
PG – Diggins 5’9” SR (16.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 6.0 apg)
SG – Loyd 5’10” FR (11.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)
SF – McBride 5’11” JR (14.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF – Braker 6’2” JR (5.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.4 apg)
C – Achonwa 6’3” JR (13.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.6 apg)

Bench
Turner 5’8” SR (4.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Wright 6’2” SO (4.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.0 apg)
Cable 5’11” SO (4.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, .9 apg)
Mabrey 5’10” FR (3.9 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 1.6 apg)

Coach – Muffett McGraw

Team Stats Uconn listed first
Points PG 82.7 81.1
Rebounds PG 43.1 43.9
Assists PG 21.0 19.8
TO/G 13.7 15.8
Opponents PPG 47.0 56.3
FG % 49.3 46.5
Opponents FG% 30.5 36.3
3pt % 37.6 33.9
Steals PG 10.7 11.2
Block PG 5.9 4.1

Final analysis – Wow…where do I start. No team has had Uconn’s number like ND has had over the last 5 games. The games are played with as much intensity as any game in WCBB.

Notre Dame certainly doesn’t want to share the title. It would be a great accomplishment as a program for ND to win it outright and would be remembered as the last “Old” BE regular season champion. Uconn, on the other hand, would like nothing better than to snag a piece of the regular season championship and cement it’s place as the dominant program in BE history. The winner will be the #1 seed in the tourney, but I’m not sure that makes a difference based on the other teams in the league. Uconn and ND are just too good for that to matter.

In reviewing the first match-up this season, a couple of things stick out to me:

KML only played 26 minutes. She was in foul trouble for most of the game.
Uconn shot only 21% on 3’s and ND was 6-12.

If everything else stays the same and either of these change to Uconn’s advantage they win. If both go Uconn’s way, they win going away.

I believe both teams will play their best players almost the full game. For ND that means 38-40 minutes for Diggins, McBride, Loyd and Achonwa. For Uconn that means Faris, Dolson and KML. It might include Hartley. Stewart, Jefferson, Tuck and Stokes will split the other 48 minutes between them. Doty might start, but she only played 10 minutes in the last match-up and I don’t expect more than that in this game.

This game is just full of great subplots. Roommates from 3-3 USA basketball, Hartley’s diminished play to date vs the 1st team AA production of Diggins. McBride vs Faris in a battle of who is the toughest player in the country. Dolson vs Achonwa as two of the best bigs in WCBB. Both have shown great improvement this year.

I know that last game, the benches contributed around the same numbers of points to their respective teams, but Stewarts 9 rebounds were big and Uconn will play Jefferson more this game. I like this bench advantage to make a difference.

Final prediction – Darned if I know. I really believe that Uconn is the better team. Is that the homer in me? Perhaps. The big wild card is the health of Loyd. Without her, they have to replace her minutes with a less talented player and in a game of this competitiveness, that could be huge.

I go will with Uconn in a tough, hard fought game. Margin of victory? No idea!

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