Your team that is not in the latest AP top 25 that you think could win 2 games come March Madness. I will go with West Virginia which pretty much guarantees they will either not make the field, or gets boat raced in round 1. From the latest round of games it would seem there is a good probability of a team accomplishing this since after the first 5 or 6 ranked teams everyone is vulnerable.
Both are very capable, but both have taken some head scratching losses so it’s hard to figure them out. Florida Gulf Coast loss gives me some reservations about Stanford, but they’ve also had some good wins and today was one of them.
Twolf, I am looking at your criteria you established in three separate ways. First, I ask myself which teams could conceivably end up in the Top 16 and thereby gain the home field advantage by hosting the first two rounds. There are three teams that are currently not in the Top 25 that I think have the talent to do this but need more time to grow and develop together: Duke, Stanford and NC State.
Second, I ask myself which teams, given how they are currently constructed, might be able to beat a lot of the teams currently ranked 8-25. Of those teams, which ones would end up as 5 or 6 seeds (which would allow them to play their second round game at the home of the #4 or #3 seed, respectively. From my perch, a 5/6 seed would mean a team that finishes in the upper third of its P4 conference, or is a strong mid-major who runs the table in their conference and then wins their conference tourney. Of the latter, I think the only teams that have any remaining hope are Rhode Island, Richmond, Fairfield and Colorado State.
Third, I look at Charlie Creem's bracketology and evaluate the two play-in games for 11 seeds. As it currently stands I think all four play-in teams could beat their #6 seed opponent on the neutral court, and thereby garner two wins in the tournament. But of these four, I think Indiana would be the most battle tested come March.
Of the three perspectives, I think the first is the most predictive at the moment so I am ignoring the other two for now. Perhaps a scenario to revisit at the end of the month?
