WNBA ROY ROY ROY

[RockyMTblue2]

I'm sold. Statistics and charts ... oh my!

Napheesa Collier is the analytically savvy choice for Rookie Of The Year

Ton of work went into this.

"A closer look at the numbers suggests that it is Collier is not just a lucky passenger in the sidecar alongside Minnesota’s starting lineup. Collier already plays a key role in creating whatever valuable margin the Lynx open up over their opponents. The Lynx hum along nicely whenever Collier is paired with either Sims or Fowles in the starting lineup, outscoring their opponents by about four points per 100 possessions. While the other sample sizes are small (about 100 minutes each), the lineup numbers from pbpstats.com show that the Lynx actually improve during the minutes that Collier is playing without either of the veterans. And, at the same time, the team starts to tank when either player is on the floor without Collier. This chart shows Minnesota’s scoring margins, per 100 possessions, with all of these lineup combinations:

..... But the trophy is called Rookie of the Year, and there is no doubt it is Napheesa Collier. "

 

[MilfordHusky]

Some folks like Arike with her 15.0 ppg but 35.6% shooting. Pheesa is averaging 11.8 ppg on 45.9%. I prefer efficiency. Phee is at 15.6 on that measure; Arike is at a very mediocre 9.1.

 

[DaBball]

If you prefer efficiency, McCowan leads all rookies in PER and FG% at 19.8 and 49.2%

In all seriousness, the award is Pheesa's. It simply wouldn't make much sense to give it to anyone else.

 

[DaBball]

Some folks like Arike with her 15.0 ppg but 35.6% shooting. Pheesa is averaging 11.8 ppg on 45.9%. I prefer efficiency. Phee is at 15.6 on that measure; Arike is at a very mediocre 9.1.

If you prefer efficiency, McCowan leads all rookies in PER and FG% at 19.8 and 49.2%

In all seriousness, the award is Pheesa's. It simply wouldn't make much sense to give it to anyone else.

 

[Orangutan]

This is a crazy stat - "However, McCowan’s entire stat line is full of other extremes, such as one of the lowest assist rates in league history, having dealt out only two dimes in 463 minutes."

 

[eebmg]

Thus should get the blood boiling.

Michelle Voepel ESPNw article is beyond belief. If you say Arike is one of the top
candidates fine, but except for the 1 sentence blurb, she is saying she is the ROY (in the title which I know she is not responsible for but that is her real intent anyway) and tries to defend using mainly Agler excerpts.

Ogunbowale, the No. 5 draft selection in April, is one of the top WNBA Rookie of the Year candidates, a group that also includes the Minnesota Lynx's Napheesa Collier (11.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.3 APG), who was the No. 6 pick.

This is what is Napheesa is up against.

Dallas Wings' Arike Ogunbowale is top candidate for WNBA Rookie of the Year

The fearlessly aggressive mentality that helped make Arike Ogunbowale a star at Notre Dame is exactly what the Wings needed from her this season.

www.espn.com

 

[Argonaut]

Thus should get the blood boiling.

Michelle Voepel ESPNw article is beyond belief. If you say Arike is one of the top
candidates fine, but except for the 1 sentence blurb, she is saying she is the ROY (in the title which I know she is not responsible for but that is her real intent anyway) and tries to defend using mainly Agler excerpts.

Ogunbowale, the No. 5 draft selection in April, is one of the top WNBA Rookie of the Year candidates, a group that also includes the Minnesota Lynx's Napheesa Collier (11.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.3 APG), who was the No. 6 pick.

This is what is Napheesa is up against.

Dallas Wings' Arike Ogunbowale is top candidate for WNBA Rookie of the Year

The fearlessly aggressive mentality that helped make Arike Ogunbowale a star at Notre Dame is exactly what the Wings needed from her this season.

www.espn.com

I've typed up and deleted three responses to this -- none of them were nice.

I wish someone else at ESPN would write up a counter argument to Voepel's. Shouldn't take more than about ten minutes...

 

[bballnut90]

Thus should get the blood boiling.

Michelle Voepel ESPNw article is beyond belief. If you say Arike is one of the top
candidates fine, but except for the 1 sentence blurb, she is saying she is the ROY (in the title which I know she is not responsible for but that is her real intent anyway) and tries to defend using mainly Agler excerpts.

Ogunbowale, the No. 5 draft selection in April, is one of the top WNBA Rookie of the Year candidates, a group that also includes the Minnesota Lynx's Napheesa Collier (11.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.3 APG), who was the No. 6 pick.

This is what is Napheesa is up against.

Dallas Wings' Arike Ogunbowale is top candidate for WNBA Rookie of the Year

The fearlessly aggressive mentality that helped make Arike Ogunbowale a star at Notre Dame is exactly what the Wings needed from her this season.

www.espn.com

Not sure what's upsetting about this to you...it's an article about Arike Ogunbowale and her ups/downs as a rookie. Voelpel also never says Arike is the #1 pick for ROY unless you go by the title (which could be interpreted either as being "a top candidate" or "the top candidate"). She specifically mentions Collier as a top candidate too. Not sure what Voelpel did wrong besides put out an article about Arike.

 

[eebmg]

Not sure what's upsetting about this to you...it's an article about Arike Ogunbowale and her ups/downs as a rookie. Voelpel also never says Arike is the #1 pick for ROY unless you go by the title (which could be interpreted either as being "a top candidate" or "the top candidate"). She specifically mentions Collier as a top candidate too. Not sure what Voelpel did wrong besides put out an article about Arike.

She is strongly implying that Arike should be ROY and that anyone who tries to look at her numbers (inefficiency / defense etc) just does not understand her hardships. Well, Collier transitioning between different positions and fitting in to a more structured system is no cake walk either.

She gives 1 line to Collier (I guess a bait tactic to appear to have some even handed view point) and none to anyone else.

Anyway, that is her angle to get people to read the article and venting is good for me.

 

[bballnut90]

She is strongly implying that Arike should be ROY and that anyone who tries to look at her numbers (inefficiency / defense etc) just does not understand her hardships.

She gives 1 line to Collier (I guess a bait tactic to appear to have some even handed view point) and none to anyone else.

Anyway, that is her opinion and venting is good for me.

It's an article about Arike Ogunbowale, not about ROY candidates or Napheesa Collier. She never implies Arike should be ROY. And of course the article is going to be spun in a positive light--she interviews Arike and her coach. When do you ever see articles like this put the main subject in a negative light?

 

[bballnut90]

This is a crazy stat - "However, McCowan’s entire stat line is full of other extremes, such as one of the lowest assist rates in league history, having dealt out only two dimes in 463 minutes."

Another parallel to Sylvia Fowles who had just 5 assists as a rookie in 430 minutes.

 

[Plebe]

Not sure what's upsetting about this to you...it's an article about Arike Ogunbowale and her ups/downs as a rookie. Voelpel also never says Arike is the #1 pick for ROY unless you go by the title (which could be interpreted either as being "a top candidate" or "the top candidate"). She specifically mentions Collier as a top candidate too. Not sure what Voelpel did wrong besides put out an article about Arike.

Agreed. The headline (almost certainly the work of an editor, not Voepel) is unfortunate, because in their implacable zeal for brevity, omitting the article ("is top candidate") makes it sound more like a "the" than an "a." Voepel, for her part, said this:

Ogunbowale, the No. 5 draft selection in April, is one of the top WNBA Rookie of the Year candidates, a group that also includes the Minnesota Lynx's Napheesa Collier (11.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.3 APG), who was the No. 6 pick.​

 

[bbsamjj]

Collier is the ROY and will continue to be a very good pro. But I think McCowan in two years, as she continues to learn pro game and refine her offensive moves, will be scary good.

 

[Alydar]

She is strongly implying that Arike should be ROY and that anyone who tries to look at her numbers (inefficiency / defense etc) just does not understand her hardships. Well, Collier transitioning between different positions and fitting in to a more structured system is no cake walk either.

She gives 1 line to Collier (I guess a bait tactic to appear to have some even handed view point) and none to anyone else.

Anyway, that is her angle to get people to read the article and venting is good for me.

ESPN adopted Arike when she hit those 3's. They are in love with highlights and you have to admit those were pretty awesome. But notice that there was no endless replay of her choke at the freethrow line. Too bad ABC gave up WWOS. That ski jumper would finally get to rest in peace.

 

[Bigboote]

Collier is the ROY and will continue to be a very good pro. But I think McCowan in two years, as she continues to learn pro game and refine her offensive moves, will be scary good.

Collier and McCowan have both done just as I'd thought they would before the season began. Collier has such good instincts and is so disciplined, and McCowan has been coached well, and she's just SO big. I agree, T's gonna be scary good if the Fever coach and utilize her well.

I also think Collier will be a MVP or at least finish in the top 2 or 3 within a few years.

And the table in the OP is as revealing as it is surprising. Great stuff!

 

[triaddukefan]

my goodness

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'm disappointed in Mechelle. I though she was more astute than that. It's a close 2-person race.

Arike is fun to watch. She's quick, aggressive, and explosive. But I have not forgiven her for multiple muggings of Crystal last year.

 

[Grad1990]

Agreed. The headline (almost certainly the work of an editor, not Voepel) is unfortunate, because in their implacable zeal for brevity, omitting the article ("is top candidate") makes it sound more like a "the" than an "a."

I agree. The absence of the article before the predicate makes the byline misleading at best and deceptive at worst.

In defense of Voepel, I prefer to give her the benefit of doubt. I don't think she intended her missive to advance AO's case for ROY at Pheesa's expense (or anyone else for that matter). The column was, as another poster noted, about AO.

That said, the byline is unfortunate in that it does advance AO's case for ROY at everyone else's expense. Lets hope the vote casters see beyond the byline and, with a little work, come up with the same conclusion RockyMTblue2 arrived at through common sense analysis.

 

[j66kicker]

I agree. The absence of the article before the predicate makes the byline misleading at best and deceptive at worst.

In defense of Voepel, I prefer to give her the benefit of doubt. I don't think she intended her missive to advance AO's case for ROY at Pheesa's expense (or anyone else for that matter). The column was, as another poster noted, about AO.

That said, the byline is unfortunate in that it does advance AO's case for ROY at everyone else's expense. Lets hope the vote casters see beyond the byline and, with a little work, come up with the same conclusion RockyMTblue2 arrived at through common sense analysis.

ESPN.com usually leaves those WNBA lead articles up in the prime position for several days or a week. All most people see is the headline, which IMO is not the least bit ambiguous - it's blatanty promoting Arike for ROY. ESPN.com has a very small number of people who do everything on their WBB coverage. They know exactly what they're doing. That's their prerogative, but I'm not giving anybody the "benefit of the doubt."

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Arike will win the WNBA ROY award because the "talking suits" by showing her 3's from a year ago 1000x's a night have already planted the seed that Arike is the new "flavor of the month" in the WNBA! Look how every Dallas game on TV starts with some piece on Arike doing something wonderful! Stats don't lie!
I totally disagree and believe as stated above the facts showing Pheesa is the true choice for ROY!
I hope I'm wrong but I've become jaded with illogical choices for award winners!

 

[Shorty Dee]

Napheesa should be Rookie of the year. She is an amazing player. I love watching her play.

 

[Plebe]

Arike will win the WNBA ROY award because the "talking suits" by showing her 3's from a year ago 1000x's a night have already planted the seed that Arike is the new "flavor of the month" in the WNBA! Look how every Dallas game on TV starts with some piece on Arike doing something wonderful! Stats don't lie!
I totally disagree and believe as stated above the facts showing Pheesa is the true choice for ROY!
I hope I'm wrong but I've become jaded with illogical choices for award winners!

As soon as the league appallingly selected Arike for rookie of the month in June just days after she set the world record for horrendous shooting, the writing was on the wall. Yes, it's the media and not the league that chooses ROY, but let's face it, the media mouths who cover the W are pretty superficial thinkers and easily influenced by the W's PR noise.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

As soon as the league appallingly selected Arike for rookie of the month in June just days after she set the world record for horrendous shooting

Not to distract from the thread about ROY, but a few points of clarification regarding Ogunbowale's 2-23 shooting performance.

--- Ogunbowale set the league futility mark for a player taking 20 or more shots, according to STATS. She surpassed the 3-for-20 effort by Sheryl Swoopes in 2002.

--- Ogunbowale also matched the record for most misses in a game that didn't go into overtime that was held by Wendy Palmer-Daniel in 1997.

--- Maya Moore missed 23 shots against Connecticut in an overtime game in 2015.

That being said (and now back to the main point of this thread), here are my (CamrnCrz1974) observations:

--- Ogunbowale is in a much more difficult situation than Collier. AO does not have an All-Star center in Sylvia Fowles or players at the level of Odyssey Sims. Heck, she does not even have a PG on Danielle Robinson's level (who is an average -- but not great -- WNBA PG, in my opinion). Arike has been asked to do a lot more with both Skylar Diggins and Moriah Jefferson not playing this year.

--- The good news for Arike is that her games in August to date (four total, 2-2 record) have been far more efficient. She is shooting 44.27 percent from the floor (27-61) and 45 percent from three (9-20) in Dallas' four August games. If she can maintain this shooting level,

--- Collier is a far more efficient player. But part of the key to Napheesa's success was her training at UConn. As a freshman, she had to fit in and find her role with players like Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, and Morgan Tuck. As a sophomore, she had to become 1a/1b with Katie Lou Samuelson. As a junior, she worked more outside-in, when Azura Stevens was in the game. As a senior, she went back to having to be more of a post presence.

My point is that over the course of her college career, Collier developed the ability to fit in no matter where she is playing (3, 4, 5) and irrespective of whether the ball is in her hands. And this has served her VERY well in the WNBA, to date. Napheesa may not have the same ceiling as other players, but her efficiency is excellent for a rookie. Even if Collier does not win ROY or does not make an All-WNBA team in her career, she will ALWAYS been an essential part of a great team. She is a player that ALL coaches want on their teams.

--- If you go back to last year, I posted (here and here) that I thought Collier was the best fit for Las Vegas (obviously, this was long before the Liz Cambage trade). And I *still* would have taken Collier, had I been the Vegas GM (if not at #1, then trading down to get her).

--- My ROY pick would be Collier. If you look at the rankings among rookies to date (as of the morning of August 12, 2019), this is what one sees:

Scoring: #2
Rebounding: #2
Assists: #3
Steals: #1
Blocks: #2
Efficiency: #1

And, as a final note, of the biggest points in Collier's favor is she is 11th in the ENTIRE WNBA in efficiency.

 

[Rixxx]

AO = 42 in efficiency for total W.

 

[iri10]

I'm not sure Collier will ever reach "franchise player" level (or maybe she will - we'll find out).

But at worst, she's one heck of a wingman to a franchise player. A Pippen to someone's Jordan.