Will there ever be true parity in WCBB?

[ctdad]

Wooden's dynasty was in large part due to two players:

Alcindor

Walton.

Stewie's ankle injury in the NC game prevents her from returning...

we might be talking about a different NCAA Women's champion right now.

Not sure I totally agree with your assessment of Wooden. He won 5 with Alcindor (3) and Walton (2). They did not win Walton's senior year (1974) and since freshmen were ineligible for varsity play back then, neither played as frosh. Wooden's first 2 titles came while Alcindor was still in high school, and he won 2 (1970 and 1971) between those players. His last title came a year after Walton graduated, at which time he retired.

Interesting speculation about Stewart; IMO her coming back actually helped ND slightly. Had she been out, they would have seen a steady dose of Stokes down low, that may have negated the good 2nd half Turner had. With Stewart at less than 100%, but playing, she was more mortal. She certainly chose to concentrate on the defensive side of things. UConn obviously had just enough offense without her, and Stokes doesn't really change that calculus.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Over the next five-seven years, IMHO your going to have the same 5-7 teams that can compete to reach the Final Four most years. They are UConn, ND, Louisville, Baylor, Maryland and I'll reluctantly include the Lady Vols. Lady Vols have the talent, IMHO they have under achieved.

Then I think you'll occasionally see other teams that will have a two or three years span due to great recruiting classes that will be contenders. They are South Carolina, Duke, Stanford and I'm going to include Ohio State who except for injuries this year, might have made it to the Final Four this year. Normally most would have included Stanford in the first group because of their recent history, but I don't, as in the next five-seven years, I don't see them making the Final Four frequently due to improvement in recruiting by other PAC 12 teams and the failure of Stanford to get an elite talent recently. Still Tara is a great coach and should never be under estimated. Duke is in this group, but with a different coach could easily be a Final Four contender annually. If South Carolina signs a great recruiting class in 2016 and 17 they could easily be added to my first group. South Carolina needs to start recruiting nationally or poaching the elite talent out of Georgia.

Then I think there are some teams if the cards fall right, can make the Final Four. They are Kentucky, California, Florida State and North Carolina. These are talented teams, but usually missing a piece or two whether its players and/or coaching, but upsets do happen and these teams are capable of pulling off one. Not ready to include Arizona State or Oregon State in this mix.

There's not enough Girls HS Talent to spread out over 10-15 different schools so that you can get the parity that's desired. If the Top 10-15 ranked Girls are predominately going to the same schools, you can't get parity, especially considering most girls stay four years. It also doesn't help when schools like ND and UConn are signing multiple players ranked in the Top 15 in a single class and then repeat it a year or two later. While the Men's Game has their Elite Talent coming out of HS, there's not that much difference between the player ranked 20th and the player ranked 60th. That's not the same in the girls game. Very few difference makers in the girls game and they seem to be going to one of usual elite teams in WBB.

 

[TFintheMix]

There won't be parity until more girls take up basketball before high school and youth and high school coaching improves. Until then, there won't be enough depth of talent for there to be more than a handful of elite teams each year.

While AAU coaching varies, the biggest problem problem is high school coaching. There are girls high school basketball coaches who have little to no coaching experience. With 3 to 4 months of daily practices, there should be some overall progress in player development. I've seen some teams who even appear to be poorer conditioned by the end of the season.

 

[UcMiami]

Wooden definitely had the advantage over modern men's teams of being able to stockpile talent - he had one year of teaching his system and three years of playing from ALL of his players -
KY this year had 3 seniors who played a total of 35 minutes in the season or less than one minute a game. They had two juniors, one who lead the team at 26 minutes a game and the other played 162 minutes only in 8 games. The rest of the minutes were divided between 7 sophomores and 4 freshman - playing 85% of the minutes for the year.

Uconn's seniors accounted for 47 mpg and the juniors accounted for 82.5 mpg - 129.5 mpg in total or 65% of the total minutes - a huge advantage for Uconn and all women's teams similar to what Wooden experienced. The ability to stockpile and teach talented recruits multiplies the advantage of good recruiting. KY is losing 7 players to the NBA draft - Uconn lost 2 seniors.

Unless Loyd becomes the norm in WCBB and we are a long way from that - partial parity will continue to look different in WCBB than in MCBB and the depth of competitive teams will remain smaller. Think of it this way - if Uconn were a men's team, Geno would be replacing not just KML and Stokes, but Stewart, Jefferson, and maybe Tuck. ND would not just have lost Loyd, but Turner as well and maybe Allen, Baylor - Johnson and Davis, etc. And the top ten teams would be anyones guess. Men's basketball each year culls out the top 30 or 40 players from the college ranks and sends them to the pros.

 

[JellyBean]

Oh yeah. There will be true parity in the women's game, in time. It is a process and getting better each year. At the lower levels (elementary, middle, and high school), and because of the exposure of the WNBA and women's college basketball on TV, the quality of coaching and player development is getting better. As those players and coaches get better, it just expands the pool of talent for university coaches and their staff. So I believe that true parity will happen in WCBB. It is just a matter of time.