Will there be a basketball season, if no fans are allowed in the stadiums? | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Will there be a basketball season, if no fans are allowed in the stadiums?

CL82 said:
Fauci has said that that is exactly the plan once we work through this initial burst. I'm paraphrasing but essentially he said the current shutdown is needed to prevent overwhelming our healthcare system. Once the active cases drop and hospital beds free up contract tracing and isolation is the game plan. That's just my recollection from when I was actually paying attention to the daily briefings. I'm not sure if that position has evolved.


Again I believe that that Fauci said that a possible vaccine exists and is in testing. IIRC, March 2021 was the date that it would available. Again, though, this is old news and, much like recruiting, the COVID-19 crisis is fluid.
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There's at least a half dozen vaccines in some form of trials but I just don't know how we can put a date on it.
 
superjohn said:
If people knew how incredibly low the mortality rate is for everyone who isn't old or has heart disease, respiratory disease, or diabetes then they would probably be out in droves when things open back up. A plan should always be focused around protecting that segment of society.
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exactly. Isolate those at risk. Test those that interact regularly with those groups.
I also wonder if this will convince people to actually do something about their diet & exercise to vanquish a preventable/treatable disease like type 2 diabetes.
 
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GHO/Travelers going to be played in June as a TV only event.

I will assume golfers will have to play in the event otherwise it's a vacant course. Golfers will need rental vehicles, course will need staff to groom and sustain course. TV will need infrastructure set up. Probably need some security too.
Probably a few hundred people and volunteers to support the golfers, course and TV.
 
Vuce said:
This is a good point but with the regular flu we have an annual vaccine and tens of thousands of people die from the condition each year. So, even with a vaccine it stands to reason that plenty of people will still pass away from COVID. So do we just stay hunkered down for years? It's an honest question. Basically you can never be around people until the deaths are down to zero? Cuz that isn't happening and if that is the case then what is an acceptable number?
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No - with a vaccine the death rate hopefully drops down to flu levels. Getting tired of people talking about how many people the flu killed. The flu killed 30,000 americans last year. Covid has killed 30,000 in the past 6 weeks, with social distancing in place. The two are not comparable.
 
Excalibur said:
Nobody thinks that, but there will damn well be a cost-benefit analysis on certain activities, and sporting events/concerts etc will probably fall on the wrong side of that analysis a lot longer than others.
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Yes, but you also have to realize that the "cost" part of this is huge for universities on the sports side. They are certainly going to be pressured by the networks to fulfill their contracts and have college FB and college Bball even if it is in empty stadiums. There are too many parties with money at stake (the NCAA, the universities and the media corporations). Universities may have to make the decision to limit or eliminate fans at events, but I think it's very unlikely they will not have any games at all. As you mention, it'll be a decision about financial vs. health risk and it will end up being some middle ground (help ease the financial risk by playing the games, ease the health risk by eliminating fans from attendance). If anything, having no fans will lead to some of the best TV ratings we've ever seen and should help the likes of ESPN, FOX, etc.
 
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superjohn said:
There's at least a half dozen vaccines in some form of trials but I just don't know how we can put a date on it.
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I think the there is a standard clinical protocol that takes years. My understanding is that the working target is a one year trial. So if the vaccine started in March it can be available in March. That assumes that production happens prior to the end of the clinical trial, likely based on early results. Again though, I have no expertise on this whatsoever. That is entirely based on my recollection of one or more briefings, so take it with a large grain of salt. I'm sure there are guy on the board who actually have expertise and give insight into whether that is accurate or even possible. @pj is one, I think.
 
CL82 said:
I think the there is a standard clinical protocol that takes years. My understanding is that the working target is a one year trial. So if the vaccine started in March it can be available in March. That assumes that production happens prior to the end of the clinical trial, likely based on early results. Again though, I have no expertise on this whatsoever. That is entirely based on my recollection of one or more briefings, so take it with a large grain of salt. I'm sure there are guy on the board who actually have expertise and give insight into whether that is accurate or even possible. @pj is one, I think.
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I thought I read something a couple weeks ago to the effect that Bill Gates (through his foundation) was spending billions to produce seven potential vaccines before they even know if they will be effective, the thinking being that at least one of them is likely to work, even if the money is wasted on the others. This would put them way ahead of the standard timetable because production will begin before the clinical trials have been completed.

ETA:

thehill.com

Bill Gates is spending billions to produce 7 potential coronavirus vaccines

The billionaire told The Daily Show the move will waste billions of dollars, but will save precious time.
thehill.com thehill.com
 
krinklecut said:
No - with a vaccine the death rate hopefully drops down to flu levels. Getting tired of people talking about how many people the flu killed. The flu killed 30,000 americans last year. Covid has killed 30,000 in the past 6 weeks, with social distancing in place. The two are not comparable.
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So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.
 
Vuce said:
So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.
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guillotine.
 
Vuce said:
So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.
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Why would you expect it to be any different than the situation with any other flu vaccine? Again, you have answered you own question. No one will be mandated to get it.
 
Vuce said:
So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.
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It can’t see it being mandated. The people that don’t get it will just take on the risk
 
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Vuce said:
So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.
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I...I don't know? What happens to them is they take on the risk of falling ill from an extremely deadly virus when they could have just gotten vaccinated.
 
If they don't have students on campus during the fall semester I wonder if they would cancel the non-conference schedule and have conference play during the spring semester. That is if things were to get better. Instead of just flat out canceling it.

Also I wonder if the season were to happen if UConn would just play games at Gampel because the attendance would be smaller than XL and wouldn't make the players travel to Hartford.
 
mussels said:
But if the vaccination turns out to be harmful, isn't there some risk that by introducing a large percentage of the population to this risk that you ultimately hurt more people than would have been the case if you simply let the virus run its course? (I'm by no means an anti-vaccine guy, and get a flu shot every year)
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In principle, you could make a vaccine that would kill 0.1% of those vaccinated. But it would not be easy. It's basically a sure thing that any vaccine will be safer than the virus. You should have to prove efficacy, but you can do that in 6 weeks if you test it in a population that is highly exposed to the virus.

Safety, especially the relative safety of different vaccines, takes longer to evaluate. Therefore, I wouldn't compel anyone to take a vaccine until it was proven. However, with lots of vaccines out there and people getting experience quickly, people could chart a reasonably intelligent course after a few months of experience.
 
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Lefty2one said:
I'm more curious about how many fans will actually show up once they're allowed back in arenas. Even if everything is back to "normal" by the fall I'm not sure I'll be going to any sporting events for the 2020-21 season.

Surely the diehards and people who think COVID-19 is a hoax will be lining up on the first day, but I don't think arenas/stadiums will be full right off the bat.
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That is consistent with recent polling. 75% say they don’t plan to attend games like they previously did. Just like folks are not going to restaurants or the theatre or other events, unless and until there is at least some level of confidence they will be safe. My guess is that attendance will be down for virtually all sports if they are played. The wild card of course is the question of whether covid19 comes back after the initial surge. If it does that will be the end of sports as we have become accustomed to seeing them.
 
krinklecut said:
Do you see some pathway to having traditional college campuses that the rest of the world doesn't see?

Without a vaccine, robust antibody testing, and reliable contact tracing, students will not be back on campus. Those things are not going to be ready by the fall semester.
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Universities are already discussing. No summer classes and they said they need a minimum 6 weeks to plan for fall semester. Not sure how they can open up dorms without a vaccine or at least antibody and virus testing. BTW - South Korea said that they are finding people who had the virus, recovered and tested negative are testing positive again- not a huge sample yet but concerning if that is the case.
 
freescooter said:
The wild card of course is the question of whether covid19 comes back after the initial surge. If it does that will be the end of sports as we have become accustomed to seeing them.
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Pretty sure it will. Not as bad but we haven't seen the end of it until there is a vaccine. (And even that isn't "an end" per se.) The thing is this a called a "novel" virus for a reason. It's jump from animals to humans is new and accordingly we are unprepared to deal with it. 18 months down the road there should be significant "herd immunity" and with it significantly lower risk to the population as a whole.

(Again this is well out of my area of expertise. Just my sense of how this stuff works.)
 
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Vuce said:
So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.
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Nobody will be forced at gunpointvto be vaccinated. Some will be required by jobs. Health care workers are already required to get flu shots for instance as are some folks in other industries. I could see it being required for school enrollment like many other vaccines are. Just as we hope enough people have enough sense to stay home, Social distance etc., and most do, most will get vaccinated if it’s available. Those people will be safe just as they are from the flu and the measles. With few exceptions (eg those who have some legitimate medical reason) sensible folks will do it.
 
BLUEDOGHOUSE said:
Type 1 diabetes is caused by variants of the HLA-DQA1, HLA-DQB1, and HLA-DRB1 genes. These genes provide instructions for making proteins that play a critical role in the immune system. -Per the NIH

So Type 1 diabetes is not preventable. It is genetic (prevented only if not in your families genetic portfolio). It can only be treated with insulin for survival. A drug many can't afford causing death.
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Ok wise guy. I’m taking about the 92% of diabetics thatare Type 2. thats usually what people infer when they talk about preventing/reversing diabetes, not using CRISPR. U know, those that eat crap like refined carbs are overweight and don’t exercise.....the type that is preventable. Or the30% of the population that is pre diabetic. Not the .5% of the population that are born with a genetic defect
 
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krinklecut said:
No - with a vaccine the death rate hopefully drops down to flu levels. Getting tired of people talking about how many people the flu killed. The flu killed 30,000 americans last year. Covid has killed 30,000 in the past 6 weeks, with social distancing in place. The two are not comparable.
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People who diss the flu either to minimize it or maximize this virus are pretty ignorant .
Yes It Usually kills 30,000 with conservative reporting and a vaccine. 50% are vaccinated but the % is much higher in high risk groups .
You Probably know the flu killed 600,000 Americans ,(including my 32 grandfather,in 1918-19 ) with a US pop of about 95,000,000
But you probably didn’t know the 1957 flu epidemic killed 150,000 in population of 160,000,000. Even the 1968 Flu killed 100,000
My wife.who just became a mother was deathly sick in that one
We’ve also had a few more that killed numbers around what this virus will.
Make no mistake the flu especially new strains can be extremely deadly.
Even in alleged benign years like the 1990’s when it was considered a weak year . I missed two weeks of work lost 15 lbs and at its worst prayed for death. Ignorance of the flu comes from the many labeling their last cold erroneously or getting extremely light cases .
This disease like the flu probably has infected 10 times the number who actually had reported it. They estimate 60,000,000 Americans got H1N1 in 2009 I won’t be surprised if this epidemic won’t approach those numbers.
The good and bad news was 90% were either asymptotic or symptoms equivalent to the common cold. The problem arises from from the 10% and the facts were are just learning about this strain.
I’m not hanging my hat on a vaccine as the medical professionals have never successfully created one for any Corona virus including SARS or the one Corona variety of the common cold in 100 years of trying.
Testing , better treatment, and herd immunity are a safer bet.
 
Quantum Computing will help us create vaccines quicker. Can't wait for that tech in next 10 years.
 
superjohn said:
If people knew how incredibly low the mortality rate is for everyone who isn't old or has heart disease, respiratory disease, or diabetes then they would probably be out in droves when things open back up. A plan should always be focused around protecting that segment of society.

It's strange we keep hearing 12-18 months for a vaccine. They don't know if it's 12-18 months, 3 years, 5 years and beyond. One thing we do know is we can't hide from this forever.
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AMEN
 
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Drew said:
theathletic.com

Call with Vice President illuminates unique challenge of sorting out college football

Commissioners continue discussing the season outlook but reiterate that they don't have the options or control that pro sports have.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

We still may be months from any clarity about the fate of the 2020 college football season, but we now have a definitive answer on at least one key element.

On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence, who serves as chairman of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, held a conference call with the conference commissioners who oversee the College Football Playoff. Their primary message: College sports will not return until it’s deemed safe for the general student bodies at their universities to return to campuses.

“We were appreciative of the Vice President really wanting to understand our principles and the considerations we all have in relation to college football coming back,” Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott told The Athletic. “Until our universities feel it’s safe for students to come back to campus and participate in activities, there won’t be an opportunity for sports. That’s the fundamental difference (versus professional sports).”

“Our players are students,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told CBS Sports after the call. “If we’re not in college, we’re not having contests.”
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This is from yesterday. They aren't flying the basketball team to Hawaii or Atlantis in November to play tournaments or playing football games in October on empty college campuses. The only hope is either a delayed or shortened season beginning in February or so when we have a vaccine, but even then semesters will have started, most likely online only still for certain universities.

The Mayor of Los Angeles yesterday said there will be no concerts or sports in Los Angeles until 2021. Anyone that thinks the season is starting on time per usual is in for a rude awakening.
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Jesus. Stop depressing me. It’s only mid April. The fall is very far away. And college hoops doesn’t really pop off till mid November. First thing to get cancelled will be NBA (pretty much Foregone conclusion) thenMLB , then if they cancel NFL we should start getting worried about college hoops. A lot can change in 6 months. Imagine no NFL Sundays this year and not being able to see bouknight in the Big East ? I refuse to believe it people are already losing their minds and it’s only mid April!!!! Let’s take everything in monthly stages and see where we stand - we’re barely halfway through spring And in reality only been dealing with this lockdown for a month (which has seemed like forever) multiply that by six more stages/months and let’s see where we are at come sept/oct- The real question is will there be fans in the stands(prolly not) -at the very least , you have to figure in six months guys can at least play on the court together. I think football will be the big key - it’ll be September by then /new academic year /NFL starting /the summer lockdown will be almost over/if NFL gets canceled that would be a big red flag. God I’m getting sick typing all this dont even want to think about it.
 
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HooperScooper said:
This might be the most depressing thread ever on the Boneyard. I refuse to read past the first page.
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I honestly don’t even like thinking too deeply about this thing, because when you do, It does get very depressing. I think what makes it worse is the possible length of time we will be living like this, and the possibility that in the short term, summer will essentially be cancelled with no beach, no restaurants, no vacations, etc. Then, looking ahead to the fall with the prospect of kids still not being able to attend school/college and college sports being cancelled really is crazy. This was going to be one of the most anticipated seasons in a long time with our return to the Big East and It may not even happen.

With that said, I understand that everybody’s health comes first in all this. Please stay safe. We will get through this.
 
The CEO of the College Board thinks school will be back in the fall. He most likely knows just as much as we do but that's what he's saying. I think they'll most likely be back, there will be much more treatments by then and everyone will be back in society well before then.
 
8893 said:
I thought I read something a couple weeks ago to the effect that Bill Gates (through his foundation) was spending billions to produce seven potential vaccines before they even know if they will be effective, the thinking being that at least one of them is likely to work, even if the money is wasted on the others. This would put them way ahead of the standard timetable because production will begin before the clinical trials have been completed.

ETA:

thehill.com

Bill Gates is spending billions to produce 7 potential coronavirus vaccines

The billionaire told The Daily Show the move will waste billions of dollars, but will save precious time.
thehill.com thehill.com
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And to think people think gates is somehow doing all of this for personal gain and shouldn’t be trusted
 
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