Will the Big 12 stay at 10 for now?

[UConnJim]

It looks like the Big 12 media deal is getting finalized at about $20 mill per school which is very close to the PAC 12 money. Would a new school add at least $30 mill to their media rights? Maybe, but ...

Throw in having 10 teams means each school gets to play every school in football once and basketball twice each year, why would you vote in a new school(s)? Would you not want to see either Texas or Oklahoma at home in football or Kansas at home in basketball each year?

Maybe they think they need a conference championship game, but a round robin with a head to head tie breaker would work out fine.

Maybe Louisville is not as far out the door as they think.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't know why the Big 12 would add Louisville, to be honest. Iowa State now makes 33% more every year than Florida State or Virginia Tech, and by the end of the ACC's TV deal, that number will likely be over 50%. Iowa State makes about double what BYU gets as an independent, and BYU has a national audience. It would seem like there are better targets than Louisville.

 

[FromTheInside]

Well what do you know..........word breaks the Big XII is signing a contract extension for exactly what I said they'd sign a contract extension for. I must be a lucky guesser.

 

[UConnJim]

Inside - Why would the Big 12 expand from here?

 

[FromTheInside]

Everyone likes the 10-team format they have now. However, as I stated in the ACC thread, they will expand if the right teams are receptive to their inquiries. There is no doubt they will reach out to Florida State, Miami, GA Tech, Clemson, NC State, VA Tech, and Arkansas, and possibly Pitt & Maryland (along w/ Louisville, whom they've already had discussions with). If the right combination of teams are interested, they'll make a move. If not, they'll stand pat with 10.

The Big XII made a number of strategically brilliant moves w/ this latest contract. If they sign at least 2 additional teams (there are restrictions on whom), there is an automatic escalator in the contract that will raise the total payout by $2.05M per team (this based on the added conference championship game). And, they negotiated an opt out clause that will allow them out of the deal to take it to market if they expand to 12 or further, with ESPN/ABC having the right of first refusal on the contract. Once the language of the contract makes its way back to the ACC, I think there will be some nervous presidents & a nervous commissioner, b/c the Big XII essentially just got a license to hunt, with guaranteed ammo.

And, what's better, the ABC/ESPN/Fox contracts the Big XII has are only for Tier 1 & Tier 2 broadcasts. So, teams are free to shop their Tier 3 rights. So, just like Texas is netting $10M/season, and KU is netting $8M/season from Tier 3, Florida State, Clemson, etc will have the ability to make $20M + millions more on Tier 3, which would put them above the highest paid SEC teams.

 

[Hoophound]

So, basically the ACC should add UConn, Rutgers and Louisville and try to force ND's hand. There is no reason for the B12 to add Louisville if all the above is accurate. Given that, why does it seem to everyone that Louisville is on their way to the B12?

 

[HartbeatHusky]

With this deal the B12 is not going to take Louisville. They'll go after bigger targets if they do in fact decide to expand. State schools instead of metro schools. I actually think having 10 teams making this much money is better for them than expanding back to 12 since everyone gets to play each other once in football and twice in basketball each year. Florida St. and Clemson would be idiots to turn this conference down if they get invites. The ACC will never make this much money.

 

[TRest]

So, basically the ACC should add UConn, Rutgers and Louisville and try to force ND's hand. There is no reason for the B12 to add Louisville if all the above is accurate. Given that, why does it seem to everyone that Louisville is on their way to the B12?

ND could give a rat's ass about where Louisville is going.

 

[Hoophound]

ND could give a rat's ass about where Louisville is going.

With UConn and Louisville gone ND would have to move their bball team somewhere. It appears the ACC may get poached, it's not a bad move defensively for the ACC to stock up.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Mizzou, Colorado and A&M look stupid now. I can't imagine that any of them are better off.

 

[Hoophound]

On a side note, can u imagine what WVU will do with all this money? They are a tiny, poor state and they already spend on athletics. Escalades for all.

 

[MattMang23]

On a side note, can u imagine what WVU will do with all this money? They are a tiny, poor state and they already spend on athletics. Escalades for all.

Buy some razors? Maybe deodorant? Replace the lightbulbs on those lightbulbed hard hats they use for mining?

 

[Marty Jackson]

http://sponczarrules.com/?p=98

This seemed like a good thread explaining the BigXII's position and provided more color around tier 1, 2 and 3 and why they are so important.
Suggests that UNC made $11M on it's tier 3 programming.

 

[TuxedoYoda]

Mizzou, Colorado and A&M look stupid now. I can't imagine that any of them are better off.

Colorado always wanted to be in the PAC and their largest alumni base outside of their own state is in Cali. Good for them.

Even when the Big 8 became the Big 12, Mizzou wanted the Big10. Mizzou was forced to settle for the same reasons A&M left.

Mizzou has no football national titles, no football BCS game appearances and no basketball final 4s. A&M has won 1 football title (in the 30s), hasn't had a conference title in 14 years and hasn't had a top 5 finish in 60 years. These 2 schools allowed themselves to be bullied by an internet-fueled ego trip so that their fan-bases could FINALLY feel good about SOMETHING, ANYTHING that mattered.

 

[frankthetank]

With UConn and Louisville gone ND would have to move their bball team somewhere. It appears the ACC may get poached, it's not a bad move defensively for the ACC to stock up.

I used to think this, but TRest is correct: ND could give a rat's ass about where Louisville, or anyone else, is going.

ND didn't care when Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College and Miami, which are all schools that ND actually *chooses* to have relationships with in football, left the Big East. If ND didn't leave when those 4 schools left the Big East, they couldn't care less about Louisville, UConn and/or Rutgers. If you think ND is going to allow someone like Louisville to be the school to break its independence, you don't quite understand the Irish mentality.

I deal with ND people everyday and one things needs to be clear: Independence *in and of itself* is what matters to them. It's not about the money, or else they would have just joined the Big Ten. Even if you could create a conference that contains all of ND's regular opponents (USC, Michigan, Navy, Michigan State, Purdue, BC, Pitt, Stanford), they wouldn't join it just on principle... and yes, they have that much tunnel vision. Also, at most other schools, what the alums/fans want only a matter a little compared to what the administrators want, but at ND, their power structure is set up in a way where the school's alumni have inordinate control over the decision-making. The alums can and have many times overruled the decisions of administrators and ADs (including reneging on accepting an invitation to join the Big Ten in 1999). So, those fire-breathing alums that say "Independence or die!" actually have real veto power at ND, no matter how much the administration might want to do something else.

There is no such thing as forcing ND's hand. If they're fine with staying in the current Big East, then they're not going to care if one, two or even three more schools leaves. Now, if the Big East actually split up, then that might be a different story, but the hybrid is *perfect* for ND's purposes. They get to maintain independence for football and are able to visit large urban markets where their fans largely live (NYC, Chicago, DC, Philly, Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Tampa, Milwaukee) in basketball.

 

[huskypantz]

Buy some razors? Maybe deodorant? Replace the lightbulbs on those lightbulbed hard hats they use for mining?

I was thinking couches. Lots and lots of couches.

 

[john2153]

10 teams is perfect for scheduling purposes...Probably not a good enough reason though to keep them from expanding if the financial benefits are there.

 

[Adios]

Texas and ND would probably work together to decide how to shape the Big 12, the ACC and maybe the Big East.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

With a big, fat, juicy target like FSU sitting out there, I don't see the Big 12 stopping where they are. Whether they go to 12 or 14 is a question. I think they add FSU and VTech and stop there.

 

[epark88]

My prediction: The Big 12 will keep leaking info, sending out press releases, dropping soundbites, etc. about expansion until around November. Here's my theory:

I am not convinced that that league really wants to expand. I believe that they're just doing their TV partners a solid here by keeping the uncertainty of the Big East front-and-center (i.e., the constant UofL banter), thereby helping to drive down the price of the next Big East media contract. ABC/ESPN's exclusive negotiating window lasts from SEP - NOV.

Also, here's a crazy idea: the whispers about F$U/Clempson may actually be another solid being carried out on behalf of the TV folks: if Swofford and the ACC dare to make too much noise about renegotiating their deal, ABC could just sweeten up the pot for the Big 12 to add the ACC's linchpin FB schools, and that would be that.

Bottom line? I believe the Big 12 is selling wolf tickets. About $20M worth...

 

[rdmscribbles]

My prediction: The Big 12 will keep leaking info, sending out press releases, dropping soundbites, etc. about expansion until around November. Here's my theory:

I am not convinced that that league really wants to expand. I believe that they're just doing their TV partners a solid here by keeping the uncertainty of the Big East front-and-center (i.e., the constant UofL banter), thereby helping to drive down the price of the next Big East media contract. ABC/ESPN's exclusive negotiating window lasts from SEP - NOV.

Also, here's a crazy idea: the whispers about F$U/Clempson may actually be another solid being carried out on behalf of the TV folks: if Swofford and the ACC dare to make too much noise about renegotiating their deal, ABC could just sweeten up the pot for the Big 12 to add the ACC's linchpin FB schools, and that would be that.

Bottom line? I believe the Big 12 is selling wolf tickets. About $20M worth...

I agree that the Big 12 is probably more content to stay at 12 than they are putting on. My gut tells me its ACC or bust for them, unless ND somehow decides to join for crazy reason. Don't know about the specifics to the conspiracy theory; I see those more as side effects favorable to their cause (by getting on ESPN's good side) than the primary reasons for their actions.

 

[Chin Diesel]

With a big, fat, juicy target like FSU sitting out there, I don't see the Big 12 stopping where they are. Whether they go to 12 or 14 is a question. I think they add FSU and VTech and stop there.

I don't know how realistic the talks are of FSU going to the B12. Realistic as far as university presidents, ADs and commishes pursuing it.

I do know that FSU fans absolutely hate being in a second rate football conference surrounded by SEC schools and SEC fans.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I posted this on the WV board regarding Clemson/Florida State to the Big12.

Pac12 - stays at 12
Big10 - stays at 12
SEC - stays at 14
Big12 - adds Florida State and Clemson to get to 12
ACC - to get back to 14 adds UConn and Rutgers.

ACC
Boston College, Connecticut, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolin State, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami

That would just be absolutely ideal for UConn athletics going forward.

-Regional and traditional rivals
-Best basketball conference in America
-The 4th/5th best football conference in America - with a huge gap between that and the NNBE, The C-USA/MTN West alliance.
-More importantly, gives UConn a football conference which we could compete in Day 1 and challenge to win in good years.
-I don't think this matters too much, but aside from The Ivies - that is the best collection of colleges from Boston to Miami.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I posted this on the WV board regarding Clemson/Florida State to the Big12.

Pac12 - stays at 12
Big10 - stays at 12
SEC - stays at 14
Big12 - adds Florida State and Clemson to get to 12
ACC - to get back to 14 adds UConn and Rutgers.

ACC
Boston College, Connecticut, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolin State, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami

I think the SEC would very much like UNC and to be in Virginia. If the ACC starts to unravel, I could see those two making a move.

I think Virginia Tech is more likely to the Big 12 than Clemson too.

 

[huskypantz]

I posted this on the WV board regarding Clemson/Florida State to the Big12.

Pac12 - stays at 12
Big10 - stays at 12
SEC - stays at 14
Big12 - adds Florida State and Clemson to get to 12
ACC - to get back to 14 adds UConn and Rutgers.

ACC
Boston College, Connecticut, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolin State, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami

That would just be absolutely ideal for UConn athletics going forward.

-Regional and traditional rivals
-Best basketball conference in America
-The 4th/5th best football conference in America - with a huge gap between that and the NNBE, The C-USA/MTN West alliance.
-More importantly, gives UConn a football conference which we could compete in Day 1 and challenge to win in good years.
-I don't think this matters too much, but aside from The Ivies - that is the best collection of colleges from Boston to Miami.

That looks good in print, but it assumes that the ACC would prefer staying at 14 versus going to 12.