Will Outside Shooting Decide UConn vs Baylor?

[oldude]

By now, UConn’s coaches and players have poured over game film from Stanford’s win over Baylor with a fine-tooth comb to see just how the Cardinal contained Baylor’s Bigs. Undoubtedly, the Huskies will have a similar strategy on tap for Thursday night’s game in Waco. With UConn defenders collapsing on Brown and Cox in the paint, Baylor should get lots of open looks from outside. If the Bears make a bunch of outside shots, that could spell trouble for the Huskies. Just as important is when Baylor’s Bigs are surrounded by UConn defenders in the paint, they must kick the ball out to open shooters. This is particularly true for Brown who has shown a tendency in the past to lower her shoulder and plow to the basket, regardless of how many defenders are on her.

For UConn to win, they too must shoot the ball well from outside. The two key players that need to make shots are Pheesa and Megan, who will likely be guarded by Cox and Brown. If Pheesa and Megan start knocking down outside shots, it will pull Cox and Brown away from the basket, opening the lane for Lou, Christyn and Crystal to attack the basket.

Fouls may also play a role in deciding the outcome of this game, for either team. While the consensus is that Baylor is a deeper team, I’m not quite certain that’s correct. From Baylor’s standpoint, if either Brown or Cox get into foul trouble, there is a considerable drop-off in execution. As for UConn, they just need to keep their starters from picking up a couple quick fouls that has them sitting on the bench for long stretches. I do believe that the Huskies can use Liv, Kyla and even Batouly, if she’s healthy, for several minutes each to buy some time for the starters

It should be a heck of a game on national tv in front of a packed house in Waco. Games like this are exactly why Lou, Pheesa, Crystal, Megan, Christyn and the rest of the Huskies came to Storrs.

 

[oldude]

While Brown and Cox represent a formidable challenge to any team they face, the Huskies have done a reasonable job so far this season against opposing BIGS, without getting into foul difficulty. They neutralized Cal's Anigwe for much of the game and did a reasonable job against ND's talented duo of Turner and Shepard.

 

[southofnorth]

My guess is that UConn will defend the way they did against South Carolina last year. They had four players with a foot in the paint making it difficult for the guards to get a good look at their bigs inside. It also forced the guards to make plays and that’s tough when you don’t have a perimeter game to open the floor.

Surprisingly, Baylor shoots above 42% as a team from beyond the arc, yet only has 95 attempts on the season versus 305 attempts by their opponents. Baylor also has 5 players shooting above 40% from beyond the arc with Cox just below at 38.5% (5-13). That said, only one player has attempted more than 15 3s and that’s Juicy Landrum (she’s 18-42 on the season; good enough for 42.8%). I imagine she will be the one player guarded around the 3 point line and the others will have to prove they can make them when they’re pushed to take a few more of them.

UConn’s outside shooting will need to be on. If Baylor is content to let UConn shoot all day, there’s potential to win or lose from the arc. I doubt they will leave any UConn player open, but Baylor could force UConn to play off the bounce and midrange pull-ups are a lot more difficult then set 3s or easy buckets on drives or post moves.

I’m excited to watch this game!

 

[TitleTown]

By now, UConn’s coaches and players have poured over game film from Stanford’s win over Baylor with a fine-tooth comb to see just how the Cardinal contained Baylor’s Bigs. Undoubtedly, the Huskies will have a similar strategy on tap for Thursday night’s game in Waco. With UConn defenders collapsing on Brown and Cox in the paint, Baylor should get lots of open looks from outside. If the Bears make a bunch of outside shots, that could spell trouble for the Huskies. Just as important is when Baylor’s Bigs are surrounded by UConn defenders in the paint, they must kick the ball out to open shooters. This is particularly true for Brown who has shown a tendency in the past to lower her shoulder and plow to the basket, regardless of how many defenders are on her.

For UConn to win, they too must shoot the ball well from outside. The two key players that need to make shots are Pheesa and Megan, who will likely be guarded by Cox and Brown. If Pheesa and Megan start knocking down outside shots, it will pull Cox and Brown away from the basket, opening the lane for Lou, Christyn and Crystal to attack the basket.

Fouls may also play a role in deciding the outcome of this game, for either team. While the consensus is that Baylor is a deeper team, I’m not quite certain that’s correct. From Baylor’s standpoint, if either Brown or Cox get into foul trouble, there is a considerable drop-off in execution. As for UConn, they just need to keep their starters from picking up a couple quick fouls that has them sitting on the bench for long stretches. I do believe that the Huskies can use Liv, Kyla and even Batouly, if she’s healthy, for several minutes each to buy some time for the starters

It should be a heck of a game on national tv in front of a packed house in Waco. Games like this are exactly why Lou, Pheesa, Crystal, Megan, Christyn and the rest of the Huskies came to Storrs.

Nalyssa Smith is putting up better numbers than Cox.

 

[oldude]

My guess is that UConn will defend the way they did against South Carolina last year. They had four players with a foot in the paint making it difficult for the guards to get a good look at their bigs inside. It also forced the guards to make plays and that’s tough when you don’t have a perimeter game to open the floor.

Surprisingly, Baylor shoots above 42% as a team from beyond the arc, yet only has 95 attempts on the season versus 305 attempts by their opponents. Baylor also has 5 players shooting above 40% from beyond the arc with Cox just below at 38.5% (5-13). That said, only one player has attempted more than 15 3s and that’s Juicy Landrum (she’s 18-42 on the season; good enough for 42.8%). I imagine she will be the one player guarded around the 3 point line and the others will have to prove they can make them when they’re pushed to take a few more of them.

UConn’s outside shooting will need to be on. If Baylor is content to let UConn shoot all day, there’s potential to win or lose from the arc. I doubt they will leave any UConn player open, but Baylor could force UConn to play off the bounce and midrange pull-ups are a lot more difficult then set 3s or easy buckets on drives or post moves.

I’m excited to watch this game!

In a game that never should have been scheduled, Baylor shot a fairly pedestrian 42% from the field in a blowout win over UTRGV on Monday. They were 5-14 from the arc (35%). Baylor dominated UTRGV, a team with no one over 6’ tall, by playing volleyball on the offensive boards until someone finally put back a missed shot for the Bears.

I think Kim’s team will make every effort to pound the ball inside at the start of the game. If UConn contains Baylor’s Bigs, it will be interesting to see what Baylor’s Plan B is.

 

[oldude]

Nalyssa Smith is putting up better numbers than Cox.

That’s true. Cox’s health has been a concern and a significant portion of Smith’s PT has come in garbage time. It will be interesting to see how both players fare on Thursday night.

 

[j66kicker]

Nalyssa Smith is putting up better numbers than Cox.

Bingo. I went to their ASU game and I thought Baylor was a much better team when Smith was in for Brown.

 

[huskyd]

And then there's the Kim factor. How will she dress? Will she wear something that calls attention to herself or something more conservative? Will she wear a jacket or other garment that can be weaponized? Can she stay off the court for any length of time? “Cukoo's Nest” redux?

As a Boneyarder said recently, these are the games that great players come to UConn to play. The Huskies get very focused on these occasions. Look for part of the plan to include sending Christyn into the trees repeatedly. She can certainly get behind them or around them for easy lay-ups and/or to draw fouls. 'Pheesa will shoot falling away from the basket, a patented move she uses to score over taller players. Megan will need to rebound ferociously. Take a clue from Crystal's first 3 attempt.

When UConn went out to play ND this year, the question was asked “How can the Huskies hope to beat a superior team?” I said then that UConn had the better players, and that's still the case here. And, despite what Brenda the Pretenda says, coaches really do matter. No out-talenting tomorrow.

 

[MikeBlue]

We have to be efficient from the perimeter, no less than 8 3- makes at 35% shooting. We need those FT line jumpers to fall at a high clip and a healthy amount of transition buckets. Brown and Cox cannot keep up with that kind of pace. A lot like the ND game where we inbound or rebound and look to pass down the court. And, of course, staying out of foul trouble and Olivia having a solid game. Stanford is the blue print, we just don't have their size, but we can pull it off! Go Huskies!

 

[bballnut90]

If it comes down to 3pt shooting, big advantage UCONN as Baylor really just has 1 consistent threat.

 

[pacific 44]

I fully expect Kimmy to present herself to America in a spiffy three piece snakeskin ensemble accessorized with rattle earrings and a multi-fanged necklace. Her players will not want to play so poorly that they have to go and sit next to her on the bench. Great motivator.

 

[DallasBUFan]

I fully expect Kimmy to present herself to America in a spiffy three piece snakeskin ensemble accessorized with rattle earrings and a multi-fanged necklace. Her players will not want to play so poorly that they have to go and sit next to her on the bench. Great motivator.

Don't hold your breath. The lady who used to do her shopping doesn't anymore because she moved to Dallas. So her outfits haven't been a fun or attention getting this year....

 

[oldude]

I fully expect Kimmy to present herself to America in a spiffy three piece snakeskin ensemble accessorized with rattle earrings and a multi-fanged necklace. Her players will not want to play so poorly that they have to go and sit next to her on the bench. Great motivator.

But the question for everyone is will she throw her jacket, and if so will she break her own unofficial world record for the jacket toss?

 

[skilz]

Don't hold your breath. The lady who used to do her shopping doesn't anymore because she moved to Dallas. So her outfits haven't been a fun or attention getting this year....

I still think she pulls out the leather pants for this game. I've seen them once this year.

 

[BroadwayVa]

While Brown and Cox represent a formidable challenge to any team they face, the Huskies have done a reasonable job so far this season against opposing BIGS, without getting into foul difficulty. They neutralized Cal's Anigwe for much of the game and did a reasonable job against ND's talented duo of Turner and Shepard.

I liked your opening paragraph. Positive. I go along with CD,Shea, Geno studying the Stanford game; there is always something to be learned.
If Olivia has learned to stay out of foul trouble, or the ref call a game she knows, she could give one of the Bears Bigs a rough time--that alone could dictate the outcome.

Because of foul troubles and playiing the odds and percentages of missed 3's GENO has allowed more outside shots than in the past. Should Baylor hit a large percentage Geno and the team will be against a rock and a hard place--who do you guard.

Fouls for Phee and actually the starting 5 is a really a plan for disaster. In terms of subs for the post: if Touly is healthy she could add 10 15 minutes of relief and not kill Uconn while doing it.
From the minutes played in big games it would appear you have more faith in Irwin than Geno seems to have. However, I like your positive spin on the Baylor game--like the man said: no point in losing the game until you actually play it. Thanks.

 

[j66kicker]

I still think she pulls out the leather pants for this game. I've seen them once this year.

I will be very disappointed with anything less than full metal lamé over reptile print.

 

[oldude]

I will be very disappointed with anything less than full metal lamé over reptile print.

View attachment 37879

Clearly Kim is demonstrating a proper defensive stance. Considering just how tight those slacks are, she's taking quite a risk.

 

[LoTrader]

I am confident Kim has a plan B, if the Brown & Cox are not effective in first quarter. Baylor has had too many games now where Kalani Brown and Cox have been less than effective. In fact, against Stanford, Baylor was much more effective when Cox was on the bench, and, Kalani Brown was sitting next to Cox on the bench.

 

[MSUFan2003]

I have been waiting for this game for a long time. I'm really excited to see how it shakes out, but I feel like UConn will prevail. I think the outside shooting will be on, and the guards will be too fast.

 

[oldude]

I am confident Kim has a plan B, if the Brown & Cox are not effective in first quarter. Baylor has had too many games now where Kalani Brown and Cox have been less than effective. In fact, against Stanford, Baylor was much more effective when Cox was on the bench, and, Kalani Brown was sitting next to Cox on the bench.

While I didn't see the game, I have to question just how effective Baylor was with, or without, Brown and Cox on the floor against Stanford. Baylor only scored 63 pts, their lowest output of the season, and 26 pts below their season average ppg.

 

[LoTrader]

While I didn't see the game, I have to question just how effective Baylor was with, or without, Brown and Cox on the floor against Stanford. Baylor only scored 63 pts, their lowest output of the season, and 26 pts below their season average ppg.

I watched the game, and, of course, watched last year's game when Baylor played Oregon State. Baylor has better depth in the post than they did last year when Baylor lost to OSU. I haven't gone back and looked, but I'm sure Baylor outscored Stanford in 2nd half. I've seen enough games to know that Kalani Brown can be neutralized, and, I'm guessing by now, Baylor coaches will be able to better recognize when to change the lineup. How well Kim manages the game, will have a lot to do with how competitive Baylor is in this game.

 

[JoePgh]

As is often the case when a small/fast team plays a big and (relatively) slow team, the key comparison will be between UConn's transition points and Baylor's second-chance points. Whoever wins that contest will probably win the game.

If UConn hurts Baylor in transition in the early going, they are likely to send either Brown or Cox back on defense (or send one of them to the bench) to control UConn's transition game. Either way, Baylor's ability to get offensive rebounds and second-chance points will be impaired.

On the other hand, if UConn has so much trouble clearing its defensive boards that it can't make an impact in transition, then Baylor is going to have a big (in two meanings) advantage, and will probably win the game.

It shouldn't even be a question whether UConn's first-shot offense is more efficient than Baylor's -- that has to be the case (and by a significant margin) for UConn to stay in the game. Assuming that is true, if UConn can limit second chances and score transition points off defensive rebounds, then UConn should win handily and a blowout is possible.

I agree that the defensive model used against South Carolina's combination of Coates and Wilson will be used again, and it will make it difficult for Baylor's guards to get passes in to the post. If either Brown or Cox can come out and make 15-footers consistently (which neither Wilson nor Coates could do), that will defeat that defensive strategy, but I don't think Baylor's bigs can do that. So the Baylor guards will have to open fire from 3-point range, and hopefully they won't be very efficient at that -- less efficient than Kaela Davis and Alicia Gray were for South Carolina in their game against UConn two years ago.

I think the overall probabilities are in UConn's favor, but not by more than a 60-40 margin, and maybe less than that.

 

[UConnCat]

Baylor has played 3 close games so far -- 6-point wins over Arizona State and South Dakota State and a 5-point loss to Stanford. In those 3 games, Baylor's opponents made a combined 36 three-pointers while Baylor made 8. Of course, none of those games were at Baylor. But yes, perimeter shooting will be important.

 

[oldude]

As is often the case when a small/fast team plays a big and (relatively) slow team, the key comparison will be between UConn's transition points and Baylor's second-chance points. Whoever wins that contest will probably win the game.

If UConn hurts Baylor in transition in the early going, they are likely to send either Brown or Cox back on defense (or send one of them to the bench) to control UConn's transition game. Either way, Baylor's ability to get offensive rebounds and second-chance points will be impaired.

On the other hand, if UConn has so much trouble clearing its defensive boards that it can't make an impact in transition, then Baylor is going to have a big (in two meanings) advantage, and will probably win the game.

It shouldn't even be a question whether UConn's first-shot offense is more efficient than Baylor's -- that has to be the case (and by a significant margin) for UConn to stay in the game. Assuming that is true, if UConn can limit second chances and score transition points off defensive rebounds, then UConn should win handily and a blowout is possible.

I agree that the defensive model used against South Carolina's combination of Coates and Wilson will be used again, and it will make it difficult for Baylor's guards to get passes in to the post. If either Brown or Cox can come out and make 15-footers consistently (which neither Wilson nor Coates could do), that will defeat that defensive strategy, but I don't think Baylor's bigs can do that. So the Baylor guards will have to open fire from 3-point range, and hopefully they won't be very efficient at that -- less efficient than Kaela Davis and Alicia Gray were for South Carolina in their game against UConn two years ago.

I think the overall probabilities are in UConn's favor, but not by more than a 60-40 margin, and maybe less than that.

Nice analysis. I went back and took a look at the rebounding statistics for UConn when playing teams with an obvious size advantage. This year at ND, UConn was +5. Two years ago vs Wilson & Coates in Storrs, UConn was +2. Also two years ago vs Baylor in Storrs, UConn was -10, but still won on the strength of Crystal's 19 pts.

Size is undoubtedly a factor when it comes to rebounds, but so too is desire and just plain hard work. I'm looking for Megan, Pheesa and the rebounding Samuelson to battle Baylor's Bigs for every rebound, along with some help from Liv, Kyla? and maybe Touly?.