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the first assumption is that there will be 4 super conferences of 16. i don't know that is inevitable. Pac 12 is happy at 12. if they don't grow to 16, the other conferences may be happy at 12 or 14. i hope you are right. i worry that you are not...
Under the old paradigm, they stay at 12 or 14. Under the new paradigm, they all go to 16. You can't look at whether a team's market will be accretive to a conference anymore. It's a different paradigm. At 16, they cut the NCAA out of basketball and create their own championship, they ringfence the other teams out of football too. ESPN, now that they don't have to pay 80 or 90 schools with TV money anymore, tops off each league.
I hope you all are catching people like Boeheim and Calhoun referencing the prospect of a basketball tourney without AQs from small conferences. While they hope it's not going to happen, it certainly has been talked about.