Why UConn is destined for the ACC

[nelsonmuntz]

UConn is worth at least their pro rata share of any conference's contract. The question is how to get another conference to pay it.

 

[businesslawyer]

UConn is worth at least their pro rata share of any conference's contract. The question is how to get another conference to pay it.

I actually have an answer for you. It's just one that you don't like.

Be patient.

 

[uconnbaseball]

I actually have an answer for you. It's just one that you don't like.

Be patient.

In the meantime, UConn needs to strengthen itself. Hiring a competent AD, constructing the new basketball facility, and retaining a good relationship with Big 10 and ACC institutions are critical to our future survival.

 

[junglehusky]

I actually have an answer for you. It's just one that you don't like.

Be patient.

Oh, you almost had me. Thought you were going to say #BegHarder.

 

[Heston]

So your theory is that Utah and Colorado, while not worth anywhere near $20M annually in TV rights to the MWC and Big XII, collectively, were worth that much to the Pac Ten, but that you know with certainty that UConn, not worth $16M a year (or whatever it is) to the Big East, can't be worth that amount to the ACC? O.K. You're just smarter than I am I guess.

As far as UConn, the ACC could care less what Uconn is worth to the Big East. If UConn is worth $16 million or whatever to the Big East, the ACC DOES NOT CARE. They only care what they are worth to the ACC going forward.

Youa re missing an entire step here. The bar is much higher for UConn. When the new ACC deal is done, lets say it is $20 million per team (or more) at 14 teams. For the ACC to go to 16 teams what the ACC will care about is if those 2 new teams can incrementally bring in at least $40 million more. Those 2 new schools need to justify that amount, not what they were getting in their old conference or what the old ACC contract was. The ACC will have their northeast footprint after they add Syracuse and Pitt. And ESPN is going to pay them for it. Incrementally to add another New England school in Uconn or another NY/NJ school in Rutgers, is ESPN going to pay another $40 million? Why would they when Rugters and Uconn are not a threat?Where else is Uconn and Rutgers going to go? The ACC has already locked up that market.

What I see is a market where conferences are paying far more a year for properties that weren't worth that in their prior homes. And my best guess is that there is, right now, value in mass for television packaging. You can always argue ancillary factors like "mountain time zone." So what. Who lives there?

As far as who lives there, Colorado is already significantly bigger than CT (by 1.5 million people). While Utah is still smaller than CT, Utah grew by 24% the past ten and will pass CT in the next decade in size. To answer who lives there, a demo of tons of 14 to 44 year olds, growing populations, and everything tv wants.

And how does a one hour difference, as opposed to a two or three hour difference, help you stagger product?

Again, according to Scott it was instrumental in the deal. I am not arguing, it is what the commissioner of the Pac-12 actually said and it was not an ancillary factor. That was unique to the Pac-12. Hence, a Friday night game of USC (which is the big draw) on Friday night at Colorado later this year.

I can come up with tons of ancillary factors for UConn. Killing off Big East basketball as we know it. Making the ACC a superpower hoops league by itself with no cmpetition ever.
First, the one I stated was not one I came up with but one that was actually paid for by ESPN and Fox and used as an example by Scott. As for the ones you point out, how many times do we have to hear it before it sinks in to the Big East teams and fans, Hoops is a small percentage of the entire deal. Who cares that they can kill of the BIg East in hoops? I don't think anyone believes the goal of ESPN or anyone else is to kill off Big East Basketball. Football, another story.

Having a dominant football presence in NYC, especially if you add Rutgers and Syracuse and UConn together. Note that, today, the ACC can't get it's football package on the air in NYC. UConn itself has SNY taking any game it can get its hands on.
Does adding Uconn significantly improve the ACC's chances of getting on the air in NYC? First, we will see what the addition of Syracuse did there. So after the next TV deal we will see what happens. Really all the matters is what ESPN is willing to pay based on what it thinks will happen. Next, does adding Rutgers and UConn add enough vs just adding Syraucse to justify another $40 million or more? Lastly, if the ACC thought Uconn was meaningful better than Cuse or Pitt in adding money, we would be in. We are not.

That being the case, I am going to actually have to see UConn stuck in the remanants of the Big East on the day Pitt and Syracuse leave to be convinced that you are right.
That day is coming. Hope I am wrong, but the math does not add up for any other result if the new ACC TV deal is a huge deal. All indications are it will be bigger than many even thought. The only way being left in the remnants is avoided, is if ND is the other ACC team and for them the ACC will gladly expand. And to keep it even teams, they will add the next best fit for the conference with ND. Then Uconn might be the 16th team in.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

It's not as simple as the ACC per team pay out is $15M, so UConn and Rutgers have to equal $30M in order to be invited.

 

[noeynox]

It's not as simple as the ACC per team pay out is $15M, so UConn and Rutgers have to equal $30M in order to be invited.

Please explain this to me. I really have a hard time following the math involved in the formula that goes into expanding or not expanding. This is a serious question.

 

[freescooter]

In the meantime, UConn needs to strengthen itself. Hiring a competent AD, constructing the new basketball facility, and retaining a good relationship with Big 10 and ACC institutions are critical to our future survival.

Um, constructing th enew basktball facility has what to do with finding a football conference? Or is that one of thos e throwaway lines we use for everything now? "The SEC want UCONN...ok, that mean s we better build a new basketball facility" "President Obama is speaking at UCONN...ok, that means we better build a new basketball facility." I agree with the other points, though.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Please explain this to me. I really have a hard time following the math involved in the formula that goes into expanding or not expanding. This is a serious question.

I believe, that in this round of expansion it comes down to the idea that the sum is greater is than the individual parts involved.

For example, Syracuse alone doesn't bring NYC. However, UConn, Rutgers and Syracuse all together could deliver a portion of NYC that alone, none of them could. So, UConn, Rutgers and Syracuse all individually aren't worth $15 a piece, but together they could be $45 or greater.

Again, this is just a really quick example that I could think of. I don't have any concrete math behind everything, but it's just my opinion.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

New Jersey and Connecticut are each worth more than $15MM per school in this market, without even accounting for New York.

 

[Heston]

New Jersey and Connecticut are each worth more than $15MM per school in this market, without even accounting for New York.

If the ACC is making $20 plus million per school, Uconn and Rutgers would have to be worth ESPN paying another $40 million plus to make it worth the ACC to make the offer. Without ND in the mix, it seems like a stretch. This assumes the ACC gets a great new TV deal at 14 teams. ANd all indications are it is imminent.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I actually have an answer for you. It's just one that you don't like.

Be patient.

Bingo.

The SEC has already petitioned the BCS to raise the cap from two schools per conference in BCS bowl games any given season to three. They won't move beyond fourteen until the BCS allows a third school into a BCS game. Once this happens, the ACC will need to find a replacement or two.

 

[gars44]

Bingo.

The SEC has already petitioned the BCS to raise the cap from two schools per conference in BCS bowl games any given season to three. They won't move beyond fourteen until the BCS allows a third school into a BCS game. Once this happens, the ACC will need to find a replacement or two.

They will need RU and Uconn just to pad the win column for the third team to get in!!!

 

[tzznandrew]

Bingo.

The SEC has already petitioned the BCS to raise the cap from two schools per conference in BCS bowl games any given season to three. They won't move beyond fourteen until the BCS allows a third school into a BCS game. Once this happens, the ACC will need to find a replacement or two.

I didn't think that there would be a time when a conference could legitimately get three teams in. But I look at the BCS standings, and the SEC has 1, 2, and 10. Arkansas has a legit shot to be ranked in the Top 10 by the end of the season, as well as LSU and Alabama. LSU beats Alabama, Arkansas beats LSU (Alabama already beat Arkansas). Only one gets to play in the SEC title game (probably, in that scenario, Arkansas).

Or, instead, LSU or Alabama wins out. The other ends with 1 loss. They somehow lose in the SEC Title game to, say, Georgia. Georgia is AQ. LSU and Alabama will be near the top of BCS, provided the each finish with 1 loss.

Those fanbases draw, so I wouldn't be shocked that the BCS bowls would want more.

 

[UConnNick]

Yep, that ship sailed. This should have been done while Pitt/SU/TCU were still on board. Problem with Big East football side is that it has always been reactionary rather than proactive. Why weren't we having discussions about adding the Boise's, SMU, Houston's before the most recent defections? Is it because it would dilute the basketball product? Sad, because the Big East has provided great basketball moments and good football ones. The Big East commissioner's office and the Big East presidents failed in pushing the envelope and moving this conference from a good football conference and trying to make it great. Locking up the likes of Boise and TCU in some form of western division under the Big East banner with a forward thinking media rights assignment would have been a stroke of genius.

According to some reports, Marinatto was waiting around for Villanova to decide whether or not they would upgrade their football program before opening it up to schools like Houston and Boise. SMU probably didn't come into play back at that time because they thought TCU was coming and they're both located in the same market. My guess is that Tagliabue was on board with that ridiculous strategy, as a means of preserving the BB side of the conference. Tags is a Georgetown grad.

In retrospect, the decision to do absolutely nothing while waiting around for Nova will be largely to blame for killing the Big East football conference if it does die.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Villanova had basically already decided not to upgrade. Nobody was waiting on them. We need to stop blaming them for all the ills in the world.

 

[jostar1]

Villanova had basically already decided not to upgrade. Nobody was waiting on them. We need to stop blaming them for all the ills in the world.

Well, a quick Google search shows that Villanova started seriously considering an upgrade in Sept, 2010.

http://www.thenovablog.com/2010/12/...ter-donahue-on-the-villanova-football-upgrade

A May, 2011 article said that the decision was in a holding pattern.

http://articles.philly.com/2011-05-09/sports/29525357_1_villanova-flight-attendant-big-east

That's a pretty long time.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Well, a quick Google search shows that Villanova started seriously considering an upgrade in Sept, 2010.

http://www.thenovablog.com/2010/12/...ter-donahue-on-the-villanova-football-upgrade

A May, 2011 article said that the decision was in a holding pattern.

http://articles.philly.com/2011-05-09/sports/29525357_1_villanova-flight-attendant-big-east

That's a pretty long time.

Their proposal was a joke. The President sat on the upgrade as long as he could, and then presented a proposal to the Big East that didn't have a stadium. That was pretty much the only question they had to answer, and they made one call to a soccer stadium a week before they went to the Big East with their "proposal", which was rejected. And then Villanova let the whole issue drop until Pitt and Syracuse bolted, at which point Donahue realized he had screwed the pooch, and scrambled to try and get back in the game for an upgrade, although he still didn't have a stadium.