Why Pre-Season awards matter.

[CocoHusky]

Occasionally I read a post that some of us get too worked up about preseason awards and watchlist. Megan Walker's play so far this season is the very reason. I realize it is early in the season but at this point Megan should be the leading candidate for POY. Sabrina is having her worst season since her Freshman campaign and Lauren Cox has been hurt. The #1 team in the country (Stanford) had DiJonai Carrington whose season so far pales in comparison to Megan's. The #2 team in the country had Elizabeth Balogun as Pre-Season POY candidate. Megan has two games remaining on ESPN this season Baylor and Oregon. If Megan were to have another performance like she did today in either of those games she would likely be sealing her POY award ......if only she had started the POY race just even.

 

[maccca3232]

On 5 Dec ESPN released an article (question 4) related to your post.

4. Lauren Cox has missed six of Baylor's first eight games because of a foot injury. Considering that Cox was the unanimous No. 2 pick in our top-25 player rankings, who is now most likely to challenge Oregon's Sabrina Ionescu for national player of the year?

Hays: Pivec
Creme: Hebard
Voepel: Pivec

 

[LoTrader]

On 5 Dec ESPN released an article (question 4) related to your post.

4. Lauren Cox has missed six of Baylor's first eight games because of a foot injury. Considering that Cox was the unanimous No. 2 pick in our top-25 player rankings, who is now most likely to challenge Oregon's Sabrina Ionescu for national player of the year?

Hays: Pivec
Creme: Hebard
Voepel: Pivec

Maybe this is why so many in the media are starting to see Mikayla Pivec for the well-rounded bball player she is, even Rebecca Lobo!

 

[oldude]

While I generally agree that POY’s are often anointed during preseason rather than earned during the regular season, it doesn’t always work out that way. Last year the AP’s preseason AA team included Ionescu, Durr, Ogunbowle, Brown & Lou. But the AP’s eventual POY was Iowa’s Meghan Gustafson who had a wonderful season, particularly in the very biggest games.

Certainly, Megan Walker has an uphill climb to the POY award, but if she continues to perform at the level she has, particularly in the big OOC games to come, and UConn continues to win, Megan will assure herself of 1st team AA recognition, and have a reasonable chance of earning one or more POY awards as well.

 

[eebmg]

Maybe this is why so many in the media are starting to see Mikayla Pivec for the well-rounded bball player she is, even Rebecca Lobo!

In the conference of redwoods?

 

[Woof 101]

NO ATTACK ON THE OP.... Simply opinion, pre-season awards do not matter because there is no such thing. Nothing is awarded until the games are played. Watch lists are simply time fillers for the BB junkies, writers, talking heads and BY type forums. Writers have to have something to write just as the talking heads need something to talk about.

Much like polls there is only one that counts and it is not out until after the final game has been played. Having said that I also think there is no shortage of media coverage of the UConn women. One can be sure Megan will get her due just as we will see opponents paying more attention to her if possible.

She is also one of the answers to a previous thread of "where will production come from". Just pre-season banter, like Megan's game, it's all good.

 

[DEpup]

I do think the preseason awards plant suggestions in the folks making decisions who don't actually follow games and the analytics which makes things more difficult for players like Megatron or Liv to break through. Although in the end, UConn just needs to keep winning and everything will take care of itself....

 

[DEpup]

Maybe this is why so many in the media are starting to see Mikayla Pivec for the well-rounded bball player she is, even Rebecca Lobo!

Rebecca has to do little things like that to maintain the appearance of impartiality....

 

[bballnut90]

I agree that preseason hype has a big impact on the eventual award winner. This decade alone we've seen Moore, Stewart, Griner, Wilson and Ionescu be heavy favorites for POY entering the season and then take home the hardware.

Looking at POY right now, Walker looks like she's deserving of being a front runner, if not THE frontrunner. Huge elevation in her play and she's been a great asset for UCONN.

That said, Sabrina is still having a terrific season. Scoring is down (15ppg) but she's averaging 9+ rebounds and 9+ assists. FG% is 46, Walker is 48. Neither team has faced much tough competition to start the year either. I think POY will ultimately be decided in big games ahead. How Sabrina does vs. OSU/Stanford/UCONN will impact voters, as will how Walker performs against their tough non conference schedule ahead.

If the decision is close, I'm guessing it goes to Ionescu, but on the flip side of that Walker will likely get the same treatment in 2020-21.

 

[eebmg]

I agree that preseason hype has a big impact on the eventual award winner. This decade alone we've seen Moore, Stewart, Griner, Wilson and Ionescu be heavy favorites for POY entering the season and then take home the hardware.

Looking at POY right now, Walker looks like she's deserving of being a front runner, if not THE frontrunner. Huge elevation in her play and she's been a great asset for UCONN.

That said, Sabrina is still having a terrific season. Scoring is down (15ppg) but she's averaging 9+ rebounds and 9+ assists. FG% is 46, Walker is 48. Neither team has faced much tough competition to start the year either. I think POY will ultimately be decided in big games ahead. How Sabrina does vs. OSU/Stanford/UCONN will impact voters, as will how Walker performs against their tough non conference schedule ahead.

If the decision is close, I'm guessing it goes to Ionescu, but on the flip side of that Walker will likely get the same treatment in 2020-21.

Even on the BY, Megs contributions are sometimes described as 'quiet'. There is a flair component that Sabrina has that Meg will have to fight and I doubt she can overcome that.

 

[oldude]

Even on the BY, Megs contributions are sometimes described as 'quiet'. There is a flair component that Sabrina has that Meg will have to fight and I doubt she can overcome that.

If Megan goes for a “quiet” 25 & 12 on 2/3, and the Huskies win, that will speak volumes to AA & POY voters around the nation.

 

[bballnut90]

Even on the BY, Megs contributions are sometimes described as 'quiet'. There is a flair component that Sabrina has that Meg will have to fight and I doubt she can overcome that.

If she has a big game vs Oregon and outplays Sabrina she might.

 

[LoTrader]

Rebecca has to do little things like that to maintain the appearance of impartiality....

I like Rebecca, because she is impartial, and knows talent when she sees it

 

[LoTrader]

If she has a big game vs Oregon and outplays Sabrina she might.

MW will also need a big game against Baylor & DiDi Richards

 

[Plebe]

In the conference of redwoods?

Yeah, but before we get too excited we should look at the teams she's gotten most of her rebounds against:

• UC Irvine: 12 rebounds
• Pacific: 17 rebounds
• Southern Utah: 18 rebounds
• Utah State: 13 rebounds

Against the only top-100 teams Oregon State has played, she's gotten 8, 6 and 7 rebounds. Still high numbers for a guard.

 

[nwhoopfan]

If big post season awards were predetermined before the season began, then certainly Clemson's QB would've won the Heisman Trophy instead of LSU's QB winning by a landslide. WCBB gets nowhere near the publicity or campaigning for these types of awards as college football does. If somebody can come from basically nowhere and win the biggest award in football, anything is possible.

 

[WestCoast]

Yeah, but before we get too excited we should look at the teams she's gotten most of her rebounds against:

• UC Irvine: 12 rebounds
• Pacific: 17 rebounds
• Southern Utah: 18 rebounds
• Utah State: 13 rebounds

Against the only top-100 teams Oregon State has played, she's gotten 8, 6 and 7 rebounds. Still high numbers for a guard.

Pivec finished third in the PAC-12 in rebounding last season at 9.2 per game, behind Anigwe and Huff and ahead of Hebard. She has been a marked rebounder for years, but still manages to record strong numbers season after season.

 

[Plebe]

@Plebe, no need to hold in the excitement. Mikayla Pivec is the real deal.

You don't have to convince me. I've always been impressed with her, since her freshman year.

Another interesting factoid is that her current 9.9 rpg average isn't greatly increased from last year (9.2). But the Pac-12 doesn't have a monster alpha rebounding center like Anigwe (16.2 rpg) this year.

 

[Plebe]

Pivec finished third in the PAC-12 in rebounding last season at 9.2 per game, behind Anigwe and Huff and ahead of Hebard. She has been a marked rebounder for years, but still manages to record strong numbers season after season.

What does this mean, "a marked rebounder"?

And actually, if you look at conference games only, she was behind Hebard and Smith. Another factor is that she averaged a lot more minutes per game than most of the other top rebounders. On a per-40 basis she was farther down the list (12th).

 

[Plebe]

If big post season awards were predetermined before the season began, then certainly Clemson's QB would've won the Heisman Trophy instead of LSU's QB winning by a landslide. WCBB gets nowhere near the publicity or campaigning for these types of awards as college football does. If somebody can come from basically nowhere and win the biggest award in football, anything is possible.

Same thing with Gustafson winning the AP award last year.

This whole topic is very speculative because it requires getting inside the minds of voters (each of whom may think and operate very differently, for that matter). But I do think there's a certain "pole position" effect when a player is widely regarded as the favorite before the season starts. Stewie was the preseason favorite in her sophomore through senior years; Wilson was in her senior year; Ionescu is this year.

 

[CocoHusky]

If big post season awards were predetermined before the season began, then certainly Clemson's QB would've won the Heisman Trophy instead of LSU's QB winning by a landslide. WCBB gets nowhere near the publicity or campaigning for these types of awards as college football does. If somebody can come from basically nowhere and win the biggest award in football, anything is possible.

Megan would not be coming from out of "nowhere" to win the award and neither did Joe Burrows. LSU was ranked 6th in Pre-season and Joe was a returning starter. UCONN was ranked 4th in preseason and Megan was on both the watchlist for Naismith and Cheryl Miller award for best SF.

 

[WestCoast]

What does this mean, "a marked rebounder"?

Pivec gets fouled a lot in addition to the fouls that she draws while attacking the paint. Some of the fouls are called for her being held by her opponents on boxouts. You don't see the hold on boxout foul called that often in women's basketball. It really has to be obvious.

What I meant about being a "marked" rebounder specifically is that her rebounding is a scouting report priority for the opposition. It looks bad for opposing guards to gather offensive rebounds against your squad. As a result, she is often battered and knocked to the ground by opponents who are attempting to keep her off the boards. I think that she may lead the conference in bloody noses as well.

 

[CocoHusky]

Same thing with Gustafson winning the AP award last year.

Not really, Gustafson only marginally increased her numbers during her senior season to snag that AP award.
25.7 to 27.8 PPG and 12.8 to 13.4 RPG. She did not come out of "nowhere". Can anyone think of a player who made AA that was not on some preseason watch list.

 

[Plebe]

Just for the heckuvit, I ran the per-40 rebounding stats from last year's Pac-12 play:

 

[Plebe]

Pivec gets fouled a lot in addition to the fouls that she draws while attacking the paint. Some of the fouls are called for her being held by her opponents on boxouts. You don't see the hold on boxout foul called that often in women's basketball. It really has to be obvious.

What I meant about being a "marked" rebounder specifically is that her rebounding is a scouting report priority for the opposition. It looks bad for opposing guards to gather offensive rebounds against your squad. As a result, she is often battered and knocked to the ground by opponents who are attempting to keep her off the boards. I think that she may lead the conference in bloody noses as well.

Wow, amazing. Her legend is growing by the sentence. She has to contend with the fact that opponents are trying to prevent her from rebounding, as opposed to all those other great rebounders who just stealthily rack up the rebounds because their opponents don't bother scouting them or boxing them out.