Who's the 5th starter?

[DobbsRover2]

We have all next summer to talk about that, Tony. Patience grasshopper, patience.

Indeed, and in deference to one of the recently departed, "Come along and share the good times while we can." Enjoy each of these seasons to the max while they're happening, and no reason to go dwelling two years down the road at this point. Every one of these seasons is very special, and it's especially good that SNY can bring a lot of the games to us in exhaustingly deep and cheerful detail.

 

[CocoHusky]

One point no one has mentioned. Not this seasons lineup but what will next seasons lineup be without Stewie and Mojeff. Who replaces them and who do we need at each position. Who will be ready to start? Nurse Tuck and who else? I would think Butler, Katie Lou and Collier but who plays the point? A lot will depend on how things play out this season. This season is a really big deal because UConn should blow through every game and needs to be ready for next season.

Tony this is clearly a rules violation for which I intend to report you! The 2016-17 UCONN starting lineup CANNOT & MUST NOT be speculated about prior to April 15, 2016-but I like where you were going with it.

 

[meyers7]

Last day to get your vote in. So far it's Butler starting. We'll have to make sure Geno gets the results of the poll.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Last day to get your vote in. So far it's Butler starting. We'll have to make sure Geno gets the results of the poll.

And it would be good for Natalie to have this thing all squared away now so she can just sit back, rest up, and take it easy until that first OSU game. No reason to get yourself all sweaty and exhausted for three months if you don't have to, and I'm reasonably assured that Geno would agree.

 

[johnnyc]

Last day to get your vote in. So far it's Butler starting.

So far? What..... you expect a flood of absentee ballots or something?

We'll have to make sure Geno gets the results of the poll.

I nominate you to hand deliver it to him.

 

[meyers7]

So far? What..... you expect a flood of absentee ballots or something?

It's never over until the fat lady sings, (or Muffett chooses not to foul ).

I nominate you to hand deliver it to him.

If someone could get me a face-to-face.

Although I think that a BY endorsement would pretty much doom Butler to the bench.

 

[meyers7]

 

[wbfree]

wbfree said: "Not so sure Nurse is a lock to start."

[/ QUOTE]
I'm entitled to my opinion. I'm sure Gabby, Napheesa, KLS, Saniya, Courtney don't think she's a lock, so they must be crazy too. I'm sure Geno doesn't think she's a lock. He doesn't give anything away. Yes, she'll probably start, but what if Gabby or one of the other competing guards make a huge jump. What if she loses her jump shot? Nothing in sports is a sure thing.

 

[wbfree]

wbfree said: "Not so sure Nurse is a lock to start."

 

[johnnyc]

I'm entitled to my opinion. I'm sure Gabby, Napheesa, KLS, Saniya, Courtney don't think she's a lock, so they must be crazy too. I'm sure Geno doesn't think she's a lock. He doesn't give anything away. Yes, she'll probably start, but what if Gabby or one of the other competing guards make a huge jump. What if she loses her jump shot? Nothing in sports is a sure thing.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I believe Geno has Kia Nurse penciled in as a starter.

 

[Kaizen]

I will be really happy to see anyone in the team as the 5th starter.
Just pray everyone is healthy in the 2015-2016 season.

 

[meyers7]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I believe Geno has Kia Nurse penciled in as a starter.

The kind of limb you can build a treehouse on.

Probably pen her in.

 

[meyers7]

I'm entitled to my opinion.

Yes you are. Even the crazy ones.

I'm sure Gabby, Napheesa, KLS, Saniya, Courtney don't think she's a lock, so they must be crazy too.

Yea, I think they would be.

I'm sure Geno doesn't think she's a lock.

I'm betting he does. I'm guessing he thinks she damn well better be.

Yes, she'll probably start, but what if Gabby or one of the other competing guards make a huge jump.]

She'll start anyway. Injury is the only thing gonna keep her from starting.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Natalie Butler will join Stewie, MoJeff, Tuck, and Nurse in the starting lineup! Gabby and her off the charts athletic ability is a game-changer coming off the bench! Geno loves that! That's what Swanier and Dixon brought to the games! Butler is a Stefanie clone and will bring all her +'s plus the same wacky personality! I think the 3 rookies will be allowed to bring their talents along slower than Stef and Bria had to their freshmen year! Anyway it's not where you start it's where you finish! In close BIG games, it's who's on the floor the last 5 minutes that will tell the story!
TonyC- - I'm thinking, in 2016-2017, Butler at C, Nurse at PG, Tuck at PF, Collier at SF, KLS at SG will start with Gabby at SF and Saniya at PG, early off the bench!

 

[chrissaran]

CajunHusky, it's easy not to have jitters when you're not starting and you're not asked to do much. Watch Saniya when she plays defense. Her feet move a mile a minute, but she's not going anywhere. If we had to rely on her last year as the fifth starter, the road to the championship would have been much more difficult. Kia is by far the better player. She was a freshman starting on the best team in college basketball. How long did Saniya start? Two games. Also, did you watch the Pan Am games. There is no debate. Natalie will start because she brings a physical presence. Is Morgan going to guard Mercedes Russell if they play UT? Four inches shorter and I don't know how many pounds lighter. Morgan is not a great jumper or rebounder. You want to get that fast break started, start Natalie, already a much better rebounder and more athletic than Stef, who was fantastic her last two years. Gabby, Napheesa and Katie Lou will get their minutes; they just won't be starting.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Natalie will start because she brings a physical presence. Is Morgan going to guard Mercedes Russell if they play UT? Four inches shorter and I don't know how many pounds lighter. Morgan is not a great jumper or rebounder. You want to get that fast break started, start Natalie, already a much better rebounder and more athletic than Stef, who was fantastic her last two years. Gabby, Napheesa and Katie Lou will get their minutes; they just won't be starting.

I don't think Geno's going to start Butler just because UConn might theoretically face Tenn and the non-proven Russell in the NCAA's down the road. Tuck and Stewart had to face Wilson and Coates last year and pretty much dominated. Also, I'm still not sure how everyone knows how good or athletic Butler is considering most have never seen her. She almost assuredly isn't as athletic or quick as Stokes and Stokes was relegated to the bench, and the lineup fired on all cylinders anyway. I would not be shocked if Butler has a similar role as a sophomore.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Sluconn Husky- - - - With the double/double stats Natalie achieved in her freshman year for Georgetown in the Big East, and having seen some tape of her that year, and what the players, coaches, said about her during last season Natalie Butler will come in as Stef Dolson as a junior! She will add talented offense and defense to the mix! Right from the beginning they praised Natalie's work ethic, her skills and her defensive intensity and "couldn't wait till she's eligible!" And one video I saw if you closed your eyes you'd think that was Stef's personality, but it was Natalie! A clone! She has also used the year off to lose about 20-25 lbs. to get in better shape!
Natalie Butler will quickly become a fan favorite!

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Sluconn Husky- - - - With the double/double stats Natalie achieved in her freshman year for Georgetown in the Big East, and having seen some tape of her that year, and what the players, coaches, said about her during last season Natalie Butler will come in as Stef Dolson as a junior!

To play at Dolson's level is an awful lot to ask. As I've said before, I don't think you can automatically transfer her numbers at Georgetown, particularly playing 35+ minutes a game when I'd put the over/under on her minutes this year at 18. I'm not saying she won't be good, just that with the minutes crunch and as a sophomore maybe the expectations are a bit high.

 

[Sonny44]

Of all the questions ever posed on the Boneyard, this one is surely the most difficult to answer definitively and without equivocation. Geno has often said how they practice will determine if and how much they'll play. We know coach demands 100% effort and energy, perfect execution, the willingness to learn and to become a great defender, screener and passer (things most high school stars were not asked to do), to be a smart, trustworthy teammate, and much much more!

However, each of these four young ladies is extraordinarily talented and each brings a very unique and different skill set to the table. And therein lies the dilemma. What kind of game does Geno want to play? The following lists are a completely subjective, absolutely non-expert opinion, which will hopefully offend no one.

Strengths:
Natalie----- great size, excellent interior rebounder and defender, some inside offense, college experience
Gabby------ incredible hops, fearless interior rebounder and inside scorer, quick, solid defender, energy
Napheesa---versatile, does everything well, relentless, great teammate, internat'l experience
Katie Lou---incredible shooter with unlimited range, great length, drives the basket, internat'l experience

Question Marks (weaknesses):
Natalie------foot speed, passing/screening skills, offensive range, conditioning
Gabby-------mid-range and 3-point shot, ball handling, ability to defend BIGS
Napheesa---need to get stronger (I had to type something here)
Katie Lou---strength, defense, ball handling

IF Geno wants to spread the floor and open up the half court game, as Kaleena's skills enabled him to do, he might go with Katie Lou...
IF Geno wants to run and transition well, as he did last year, Napheesa, Katie Lou and Gabby all fit the bill...
IF Geno wants to go BIG for matchup purposes, or to help Stewie and Morgan down low, Natalie is your girl...
IF Geno wants to refrain from starting a freshman and go with experience, Gabby or Natalie...
IF Geno wants to play the kid who can do anything and everything he wants from a starter, Napheesa it is...

Geez, I'm feeling a bit like Rudyard Kipling...

Bottom Line... THERE IS NO WRONG ANSWER TO THE QUESTION...ONLY GREAT ONES.

Change those "IF's" to "When's" and you've got it.

 

[Sonny44]

To play at Dolson's level is an awful lot to ask. As I've said before, I don't think you can automatically transfer her numbers at Georgetown, particularly playing 35+ minutes a game when I'd put the over/under on her minutes this year at 18. I'm not saying she won't be good, just that with the minutes crunch and as a sophomore maybe the expectations are a bit high.

Dolson didn't play to Dolson's level until her junior year.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Dolson didn't play to Dolson's level until her junior year.

Well, the comment I responded to said Butler will come in as play like Dolson did as a junior. Yes, Dolson was better as an upperclassmen but still very good her first two years.

I just think the "smaller", quicker lineup UConn went with last year is ideal.

 

[JoePgh]

Natalie will start because she brings a physical presence. Is Morgan going to guard Mercedes Russell if they play UT? Four inches shorter and I don't know how many pounds lighter. Morgan is not a great jumper or rebounder. You want to get that fast break started, start Natalie, already a much better rebounder and more athletic than Stef, who was fantastic her last two years. Gabby, Napheesa and Katie Lou will get their minutes; they just won't be starting.

If you noticed, for almost all of last season after the Stanford game, there was a difference between offense and defense in the UConn lineup. On offense, Stewie was the 4 and Morgan was the 5. On defense, it was the opposite -- Stewie was the 5 (closest to the basket) and Morgan was the 4. If they should play against Tennessee and Russell, I would expect Stewie to guard her and Morgan to guard Graves. When they play South Carolina, it will be a bigger problem: Stewie will probably have to guard Wilson, leaving Morgan to guard Alaina Coates.

It's true that will keep Stewie in the paint on defense, having to play a physical game against physical opponents, but she is a big girl now and she can do that. I don't doubt that she will get substantial relief from Natalie coming off the bench in both cases. When Natalie comes off the bench, she could potentially replace either Stewie or Morgan, just as Kiah Stokes did.

The problem that Coates, Russell, and similar big and slow players will have is that they will not be able to guard either Morgan or Stewie (neither Coates nor Ebiam could stop Morgan from getting layups last year), and they could easily get in foul trouble trying to do so. If they don't, they could get worn out on defense, which will sap their effectiveness on offense. And I don't expect either Tennessee or South Carolina (or anyone else) to have a post player coming off the bench of the caliber of Natalie Butler.

Have you considered the other question: In your proposed front court of Natalie / Stewie / Morgan, who will guard the Diamond Deshieldses of the NCAAW world? You need a wing with a lot of mobility to do that, and I don't think any of those candidates would qualify. But Napheesa Collier (with some help from the rest of the UConn D) has the skills to get that done.

 

[CocoHusky]

Have you considered the other question: In your proposed front court of Natalie / Stewie / Morgan, who will guard the Diamond Deshieldses of the NCAAW world?

Joe I'm not sure I see a defensive issue with this big lineup. DD is a very talented wing but IMO no more talented than a wing than Loyd, McBride, Wiliams of USF, Mitchell of SC. UCONN always varies the look against these wing players quickness with MoJeff, Nurse with size, & even Saniya with face guarding. During the times when switching is called for Both Stewie and Morgan are more than capable of playing perimeter defense in stretches. So if and when UCONN has to matchup with DD I think your answer is Kia Nurse

 

[Huskies Rule]

My vote would be for Napheesa, but before I defend that, let me state the most important fact about this question:

If you were to poll Geno or CD at this time, and forcibly administer to each of them a truth serum that would leave them no choice but to answer honestly, they would both give "Don't know" as their sole honest answer. Everything depends on what happens in practice. Anyone on the team, practically, could be the fifth starter depending on how they and others perform in practice.

So the poll is really asking which player will most distinguish herself in practice. Based on what many of us saw in the U19's, I think Napheesa will be that one. The reason is her maturity and the all-around nature of her game. Unlike KLS, she is not a player with one major strength and a lot of "OK to pretty good" ratings in other aspects of her game. Unlike Natalie Butler, she is fast and quick enough to keep up at both ends of the court and defend any perimeter scoring threat, of which the team will see quite a few.

UConn's problems in 2015-16 will be second-order in nature, but if Natalie were to start, it would create a few problems:

1. The whole front court would be a little on the slow side, and would have trouble defending penetration by mobile guards and small forwards.
2. If Natalie, Stewie, and Morgan all start, then who would be the inside player that would come off the bench -- Dejenae Boykin? It seems better for two of them to start and for Natalie to be the first big player off the bench, just as Kiah Stokes was last year.
3. If Natalie, Stewie, and Morgan are all in the lineup at once, who plays on the wing? Morgan, with her sub-30% 3-point percentage, wasting her vast array of post moves? Stewie, also not a killer from the 3-point line, and big enough to score inside against almost anybody? It seems much more natural to have Napheesa on the wing with 2 of the 3 bigs.

All this is just a guess. If KLS lights it up in October and shows that the rest of her game is better than anyone thought, then she will start. If Saniya plays fantastically at both ends of the court, she could start. If Courtney has the best 3-point marksmanship on the team in practice and plays mistake-free basketball, she might even start.
but I would say the probabilities favor Napheesa.

Your analysis is excellent and spot-on, JP. But... you lost me with that clunker of a next-to-last line...come on. Tierney and Briana will start before Courtney ever does.