Who wins this weekend? #6 Notre Dame at #3 U$C, #1 SCAR at #5 fUCLA

[LwrcasefaN]

• Isn't Southern California thought to be an up-tempo team? Hidalgo and Citron don't tire.
• Zone? That's usually ND's trick. Against prior teams and without Westbeld, I'd say that was a good move, but Miles has greatly improved her outside shooting and you've got Citron and Hidalgo. Plus, Emma Risch can stroke it from deep.
• Box + One? Who do you cover? Hidalgo, Miles? That leaves the other free to attack a box.

Juju is uptempo and everyone else watches. So...not really. I'd rather have them taking jump shots than making driving layups putting fouls on my defense. I'd cover Hidalgo. She can break down a defense until it looks almost invisible. You can't win with her and Miles putting up 20 pieces.

 

[jake0414]

Their point guard was out of the game and they had a freshman playing pg, was the most likely reason.

Kennedy Smith isn’t a point guard. Talia Von Oelhoffen ostensibly is their starting point guard. With Smith unavailable Gottlieb made freshman Heckel, a true pg, a starter and moved TVO off the ball.

 

[Dillon77]

Juju is uptempo and everyone else watches. So...not really. I'd rather have them taking jump shots than making driving layups putting fouls on my defense. I'd cover Hidalgo. She can break down a defense until it looks almost invisible. You can't win with her and Miles putting up 20 pieces

We'll see if any team tries the box and one. I don't think anyone can really stay with Hidalgo even if they're trying to birddog her. In the meantime, Miles will breakdown the box, particularly with King and Westbeld, once she comes back. And Citron is the queen of weakside cuts.

That said, I could see UConn trying a rotation of Chen and Arnold rotating on Hidalgo, with Bueckers taking Miles. That could be interesting. The matchups of that game will be crazy, but let's get there first

Still disagree with you on USC (Heckel and Smith, before she was hurt, were built for speed), but that's a nit.

 

[visitingcock]

So what team will be the new #1? I think there are three candidates: UConn, Notre Dame, and UCLA.

I'm putting in my guess for UCLA. Beating South Carolina may push them past UConn for that #1 in the rankings. I think voters will value that win as a better win than Notre Dame over USC.

1. UCLA
2. UConn
3. Notre Dame

I might jump ND to two until UConn beats a VHQ team

 

[ERWUC65]

ND is the real deal. And the person on that team who I think is their best player is Citron.
If UConn gets out of South Bend with a win I'll be surprised. And yes, I'm a realistic UConn fan.
ND humiliated them on their home court last season, and revenge is a strong motivator, but is it enough?
I'm not so sure.

The game is too early on. ND looks real good and is at home. Unfortunately I have this in the loss column, but feel better about SC away after watching their game yesterday.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

We'll see if anyone tries the box and one. I don't think anyone can really stay with Hidalgo even if they're trying to birddog her. In the meantime, Miles will breakdown the box, particularly with King and Westbeld, once she comes back. And Citron is the queen of weakside cuts.

That said, I could see UConn trying a rotation of Chen and Arnold rotating on Hidalgo, with Bueckers taking Miles. That could be interesting. The matchups of that game will be crazy, but let's get there first

Still disagree with you on USC (Heckel and Smith, before she was hurt, were built for speed), but that's a nit.

Sometimes your defensive strategy has to me more about containment than stopping. And limit the and ones. I would focus on steering them into areas where they are less effective. They are going to score. I'll surrender 20 points if it takes 25 shots to get there. Like Miles loves that straight drive down the right side box with the scoop shot. It's killer. I have this one circled on my calendar.

 

[Dillon77]

Sometimes your defensive strategy has to me more about containment than stopping. And limit the and ones. I would focus on steering them into areas where they are less effective. They are going to score. I'll surrender 20 points if it takes 25 shots to get there. Like Miles loves that straight drive down the right side box with the scoop shot. It's killer. I have this one circled on my calendar.

Fair 'nuff. Containment -- that's what ND was pointing towards with Watkins: containment/hassling. Save for the third quarter and garbage time, it largely worked.

 

[Dillon77]

Juju is uptempo and everyone else watches. So...not really. I'd rather have them taking jump shots than making driving layups putting fouls on my defense. I'd cover Hidalgo. She can break down a defense until it looks almost invisible. You can't win with her and Miles putting up 20 pieces.

Thought you'd find the link here interesting. My colleague from The Bench, Baba Ghanouj, did some research and found the current (week 4) top teams ranked by how fast they play, i.e. the average number of possessions a game.

1) LSU 81.5
2) ND 80.5
3) Oklahoma 80.1
4) USC 79.3
5) Texas 79.1

FWIW, UConn is at 68.3

Here's a link to Baba's chart on The Bench:

Who plays fast (at least up to week 4)?

ndnation.com

 

[BruinGold]

Aarnisalo was a revelation

Elina Aarnisalo Career Stats - NCAAW - ESPN

Complete career NCAAW stats for the UCLA Bruins Guard Elina Aarnisalo on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Elina Aarnisalo is Finnish, and was probably spotted at the 2022 European U18 Championship. Finland finished this competition in 7th place, which wasn't enough to qualify for the 2023 U19 World Championship. She had a good tournament, and she's not the only one on her team to have caught the eye of American university recruiters. Like her, Elsa Lemmila 6'6'' is starting her first NCAA year with Ohio State.

European championships are always interesting for recruiters. There's more parity between countries, and basketball is increasingly popular on the old continent, with over a million fans attending the Paris games - a record. U16 and U18 championships are held every year. Three championships in all, A (16 countries) B around 20 and C from 8 to 12. I haven't seen any statistics, but I'd be inclined to believe that the number of international players is constantly rising in the NCAA.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Elsa Lemmila Career Stats - NCAAW - ESPN

Complete career NCAAW stats for the Ohio State Buckeyes Center Elsa Lemmila on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Finland - FIBA U18 Women's European Championship | FIBA Basketball Events

Finland - All leaders, participating players & roster, game results and stats from FIBA U18 Women's European Championship

www.fiba.basketball

UCLA's Finnish Freshman, Elina Aarnisalo, doesn't really jump off the page. She isn't crazy fast, won't jump out of the gym, probably won't drop 30 on anyone, or have multiple highlight plays. She's pretty easy to ignore.

But, she's starting for a very good team, with lots of heralded players who are older and more experienced than she is. She is very competent, shoots at a high percentage, doesn't get emotional, and doesn't turn the ball over. Her super-power, so-to-speak, is doing the right thing, making the right choice, and being in the right place... almost every single time. After awhile, that DOES jump off the page.

At the post-game presser, her teammate, Lauren Betts, was asked who the most underrated player on the team was. She named Aarnisalo.

Clearly, her coaches and her teammates recognize how good she is, and they aren't complaining about the starting role.

 

[jake0414]

UCLA's Finnish Freshman, Elina Aarnisalo, doesn't really jump off the page. She isn't crazy fast, won't jump out of the gym, probably won't drop 30 on anyone, or have multiple highlight plays. She's pretty easy to ignore.

But, she's starting for a very good team, with lots of heralded players who are older and more experienced than she is. She is very competent, shoots at a high percentage, doesn't get emotional, and doesn't turn the ball over. Her super-power, so-to-speak, is doing the right thing, making the right choice, and being in the right place... almost every single time. After awhile, that DOES jump off the page.

At the post-game presser, her teammate, Lauren Betts, was asked who the most underrated player on the team was. She named Aarnisalo.

Clearly, her coaches and her teammates recognize how good she is, and they aren't complaining about the starting role.

Elina doesn’t possess the quickness or athleticism of a Fulwiley, Maddy McDaniel or Flau’Jae Johnson. But at the pregame presser Coach Close said Aarnisalo is the second fastest on the team in sprints and can get with three inches of the rim on her layups. So she’s quick and springy enough. But yes she doesn’t standout, has been under the radar as a Euro not the getting media coverage of her freshman peers, but seems to play under control, to possess a high basketball IQ and does things right, after a shaky first half versus Louisville.

 

[Bigboote]

Aarnisalo jumped off the page (screen) to me. She may never be a star, but her skills and fundamentals are through the roof.

 

[GamecockFam]

UCLA's Finnish Freshman, Elina Aarnisalo, doesn't really jump off the page. She isn't crazy fast, won't jump out of the gym, probably won't drop 30 on anyone, or have multiple highlight plays. She's pretty easy to ignore.

But, she's starting for a very good team, with lots of heralded players who are older and more experienced than she is. She is very competent, shoots at a high percentage, doesn't get emotional, and doesn't turn the ball over. Her super-power, so-to-speak, is doing the right thing, making the right choice, and being in the right place... almost every single time. After awhile, that DOES jump off the page.

At the post-game presser, her teammate, Lauren Betts, was asked who the most underrated player on the team was. She named Aarnisalo.

Clearly, her coaches and her teammates recognize how good she is, and they aren't complaining about the starting role.

Coach Staley gave her a lot of praise in her post game presser. When asked about UCLA players she basically said that besides Betts, Aarnisalo just jumps off the page in the film room.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Listen-

Not to brag, but last year I was very suspect at SC being #6 because of Cardoso....and we see how that turned out. This year, while I think SC should've started at #1, I was very interested to see this SC team because of the loss of Cardoso. She should've been a 1st team AA. Her size and skill set completely changed everything SC did on both sides of the floor. Add to that, that Dawn coaches a little bit like Pat did(and Kim did at Baylor), which is a ton of athletic, massive bigs who out muscled everyone. This SC team just doesn't have that massive size down low. They have some tall, athletic, posts, but not a Coates, Wilson, Boston, or Cardoso type. Obviously they will be fine, but I wonder what will happen when they play teams with better backcourts than even UCLA had. Like, I could see SC really struggling with ND.

I was very confident that SCar was underrated last year and was not so sure it was #1 this year.

it felt like a loss was coming, but getting blown off the floor was definitely not fun.

 

[Alydar]

ð assume you mean K. Iriafen and J. Watkins. Iriafen is supposed to be an inside scorer but Watkins shoots threes, mid range jumpers and layups. I don't think they got in each others way. When Watkins comes in to shoot Iriafen is supposed to be ready to rebound. But I'm not sure if that's who you meant.

I meant those two. Watkins may shoot from outside but her effectiveness is best inside 10 feet. She's 5-28 (18%) from behind the arc. Any coach would prefer that she shoot 3's all game.

 

[Alydar]

I was very confident that SCar was underrated last year and was not so sure it was #1 this year.

it felt like a loss was coming, but getting blown off the floor was definitely not fun.

Staley's synopsis of where they stand (at her postgame) was "we were great last season with a dominant post and we are still learning to play without one".

They will be there towards the end of the season because defense is the key in the NCAA's.

 

[Alydar]

Fair 'nuff. Containment -- that's what ND was pointing towards with Watkins: containment/hassling. Save for the third quarter and garbage time, it largely worked.

And that's more likely how UConn will play the NDame guards. What I'm looking forward to seeing is the front line matchups. Last year it was competitive until Muhl fouled out and UConn was out of guards. That won't happen this year. (Bueckers, Fudd, Chen, Shade, Arnold, Samuels, Ziebell and Cheli) UConn will likely rotate the first 5 of them.

Miles and Hidalgo are amazing but unless they both have amazing games NDame can't beat UConn. UConn's front court is deeper and no one yet has been able to handle Strong who is looking more like a senior that a freshman 5 games into her 1st season. It's hard to plan for Strong after you have to plan for Bueckers.
Should be an exciting game. What I really want is for both teams to exit the game with their rosters intact.

 

[GoChips20]

And that's more likely how UConn will play the NDame guards. What I'm looking forward to seeing is the front line matchups. Last year it was competitive until Muhl fouled out and UConn was out of guards. That won't happen this year. (Bueckers, Fudd, Chen, Shade, Arnold, Samuels, Ziebell and Cheli) UConn will likely rotate the first 5 of them.

Miles and Hidalgo are amazing but unless they both have amazing games NDame can't beat UConn. UConn's front court is deeper and no one yet has been able to handle Strong who is looking more like a senior that a freshman 5 games into her 1st season. It's hard to plan for Strong after you have to plan for Bueckers.
Should be an exciting game. What I really want is for both teams to exit the game with their rosters intact.

I don’t know that that’s necessarily true. With all respect, Miles and Hidalgo have both picked UConn apart in separate years. The two of them together is a challenge UConn hasn’t faced yet. I think there are several plausible scenarios where Miles or Hidalgo don’t play well and their supporting cast makes enough contributions to win. I do agree that ND needs one of them to have a great game though. If both are off, UConn will likely run away with this as they’re much deeper. But all things being equal, I’d tag UConn as the underdog in the one to start.

 

[Alydar]

I don’t know that that’s necessarily true. With all respect, Miles and Hidalgo have both picked UConn apart in separate years. The two of them together is a challenge UConn hasn’t faced yet. I think there are several plausible scenarios where Miles or Hidalgo don’t play well and their supporting cast makes enough contributions to win. I do agree that ND needs one of them to have a great game though. If both are off, UConn will likely run away with this as they’re much deeper. But all things being equal, I’d tag UConn as the underdog in the one to start.

Of course I could be wrong and I am a fan but the big questions about UConn going into the season were: Will they stay healthy? Will they be able to replace Muhl and Edwards? Will the new players contribute?

Yes, yes and yes. (so far) But wait ... there is more!

Fudd is back and is just as quick as I remember. Patterson is due back any time and Griffin says she'll be back before NYears. Strong is already much better than Edwards. Chan, Fudd and the freshmen more than replace Muhl. All the new players are meeting or exceeding expectations. UConn always has a designated player to high 5 everyone on the bench after a made 3. It's usually the end of the bench guy and this year that's Morgan Cheli who was one of five finalists for the Naismith HSPOY. El Alfy has started to slow down and seems happier playing against someone as tall for a change. How she compares to Koval? I don't know but I will predict that she will beat Koval down the court.

Any game can be lost and losing at NDame wouldn't be even a mild surprise. But nor would a UConn win by double digits.

 

[Dillon77]

And that's more likely how UConn will play the NDame guards. What I'm looking forward to seeing is the front line matchups. Last year it was competitive until Muhl fouled out and UConn was out of guards. That won't happen this year. (Bueckers, Fudd, Chen, Shade, Arnold, Samuels, Ziebell and Cheli) UConn will likely rotate the first 5 of them.

Miles and Hidalgo are amazing but unless they both have amazing games NDame can't beat UConn. UConn's front court is deeper and no one yet has been able to handle Strong who is looking more like a senior that a freshman 5 games into her 1st season. It's hard to plan for Strong after you have to plan for Bueckers.
Should be an exciting game. What I really want is for both teams to exit the game with their rosters intact.

@GoChips20

Last year was an odd game in that both teams only used 7 players. And while Hidalgo scored 34 and Sonia Citron had 15, the other Irish guards -- KK Bransford and Anna DeWolfe -- didn't score.

Hidalgo and Citron are back, joined by Miles, Cass Prosper and Emma Risch, all three of whom were out with injuries last season.

The big difference, as you note, is the front court: UConn doesn't have Aaliyah Edwards, who was the best player on the floor for the Huskies. But ND doesn't have Maddy Westbeld, who scored 23 and was deadly on pick and pops with Hidalgo. So, it's a fresh start for both teams up-front. Sarah Strong has, indeed, been great. She'll probably match up with Liatu King, the undersized but very game forward. Kate Koval and Jana El Affy will be a fun, internationally flavored center match-up. I wish Maddy or Liza Karlen would be back to offer depth against Ice Brady, but I'm not counting on it. Prosper played well as a 6'2" guard against USC.

To @GoChips20 point, ND can provide support: They have six players averaging double figures and King/Koval also rebound in double figures.

I'm not going to make predictions as to who will do what against any player yet until ND is past TCU, Utah and Texas. But it should be a great game and hopefully, all teams will come out of it healthy.

Two caveats:

• I saw ND in person at Lafayette (all of three rows from court). UConn had trouble with Hidalgo last year (and Muhl's not here). Miles, in her own way, is just as hard to control on offense.
• Citron vs. Bueckers, Round 2. Another story of containment with Citron trying to slow Bueckers down again. Keep track of that one.

 

[Alydar]

@GoChips20

Last year was an odd game in that both teams only used 7 players. And while Hidalgo scored 34 and Sonia Citron had 15, the other Irish guards -- KK Bransford and Anna DeWolfe -- didn't score.

Hidalgo and Citron are back, joined by Miles, Cass Prosper and Emma Risch, all three of whom were out with injuries last season.

The big difference, as you note, is the front court: UConn doesn't have Aaliyah Edwards, who was the best player on the floor for the Huskies. But ND doesn't have Maddy Westbeld, who scored 23 and was deadly on pick and pops with Hidalgo. So, it's a fresh start for both teams up-front. Sarah Strong has, indeed, been great. She'll probably match up with Liatu King, the undersized but very game forward. Kate Koval and Jana El Affy will be a fun, internationally flavored center match-up. I wish Maddy or Liza Karlen would be back to offer depth against Ice Brady, but I'm not counting on it. Prosper played well as a 6'2" guard against USC.

To @GoChips20 point, ND can provide support: They have six players averaging double figures and King/Koval also rebound in double figures.

I'm not going to make predictions as to who will do what against any player yet until ND is past TCU, Utah and Texas. But it should be a great game and hopefully, all teams will come out of it healthy.

Two caveats:

• I saw ND in person at Lafayette (all of three rows from court). UConn had trouble with Hidalgo last year (and Muhl's not here). Miles, in her own way, is just as hard to control on offense.
• Citron vs. Bueckers, Round 2. Another story of containment with Citron trying to slow Bueckers down again. Keep track of that one.

Last year is last year. Fudd went down in game 2 and Griffin in early Dec. UConn got better and made the FF but when they played NDame they were reeling.
Bueckers is at another level this season. Her effg% right now is 80% because defenses can't focus on her. And then there is Fudd. She and Bueckers are at least as dangerous as the NDame backcourt, are both better outside shooters than either of the Irish guards and are both playing excellent defense. A year as a power forward has toughened up Bueckers.

Should be a great game.

 

[cancontent]

Last year is last year. Fudd went down in game 2 and Griffin in early Dec. UConn got better and made the FF but when they played NDame they were reeling.
Bueckers is at another level this season. Her effg% right now is 80% because defenses can't focus on her. And then there is Fudd. She and Bueckers are at least as dangerous as the NDame backcourt, are both better outside shooters than either of the Irish guards and are both playing excellent defense. A year as a power forward has toughened up Bueckers.

Should be a great game.

And Notre Dame weren't short handed themselves? Yes, last year is last year, but ND were doing their best with a limited bench as well.

Now they have Miles and Prosper back from injury. The addition of King and Koval also adds something to their style of play that wasn't there last season.

 

[Dillon77]

Last year is last year. Fudd went down in game 2 and Griffin in early Dec. UConn got better and made the FFbut when they played NDame they were reeling.
Bueckers is at another level this season. Her effg% right now is 80% because defenses can't focus on her. And then there is Fudd. She and Bueckers are at least as dangerous as the NDame backcourt, are both better outside shooters than either of the Irish guards and are both playing excellent defense. A year as a power forward has toughened up Bueckers.

Should be a great game.

The past is the past, which is one reason why it might be a bit murky: It wasn't UConn "reeling at the time." (Both teams had multiple injuries so let's not point to one team being worse off than another.)

• UConn had won 13 straight games coming into the home game against ND.
• ND, since New Year's Eve, was 5-3 and had just gotten shellacked by 14 at home by Syracuse. Sonia Citron was barely back from a lower leg injury suffered in the fall.

Now, onto this year.

• Paige Bueckers, as I've fully (and always) given credit to, is having a great season shooting: an amazing 62% from the field and 46% from three, while averaging 20.6 ppg.
• Azzi Fudd is just getting back from a very extended absence, so hopefully that 18% (and 12% from three) will improve. But I'm not sure I'd be calling her a better shooter than these next two players at this moment in the season:
• Olivia Miles is shooting 56% overall and 54% from three, while scoring 18.6 ppg. You want improvement? Check out OM's outside shooting.
• Hannah Hidalgo is at 49% overall and 54% from three, while averaging 24.8 ppg.

Bueckers plays good defense. Fudd, once again, hasn't been back long enough for me to see how she'll fare against quick guards.
Hidalgo basically plays "safety without portfolio" and ND has several very good traditional defenders, most notably Sonia Citron, who will take the other team's leading 1-3 player, so we'll see a rematch of last year's PB-SC match-up. To use the phrase we started this conversation with, containment is key.

Once again, I agree that it will be a good game.

 

[DallasDomer]

And that's more likely how UConn will play the NDame guards. What I'm looking forward to seeing is the front line matchups. Last year it was competitive until Muhl fouled out and UConn was out of guards. That won't happen this year. (Bueckers, Fudd, Chen, Shade, Arnold, Samuels, Ziebell and Cheli) UConn will likely rotate the first 5 of them.

Miles and Hidalgo are amazing but unless they both have amazing games NDame can't beat UConn. UConn's front court is deeper and no one yet has been able to handle Strong who is looking more like a senior that a freshman 5 games into her 1st season. It's hard to plan for Strong after you have to plan for Bueckers.
Should be an exciting game. What I really want is for both teams to exit the game with their rosters intact.

Just a few observations. The ND line up that beat Uconn last year has improved as has Uconn. ND heard the same "NDame can't beat UConn" except it was USC @ USC.

I don't know what the result will be but both teams have improved from the ND 82 Uconn 67 game at Uconn. I won't make statements like no one can beat a team, I'd rather just enjoy the game as it happens.

 

[WBBTakeover]

Paige is a really good defender (smart, quick, and great instincts). KK Arnold has the potential to be even better than good defensively. Beyond that, I'm not seeing an amazing perimeter defensive arsenal for UConn. By contrast, Hannah, Olivia, and Sonia are all, at worst, very good defenders (and great defenders at best, with Hannah having NDPOY potential). If there's one set of perimeter players in this match-up that I would not be surprised to see struggle against the other, it would be UConn's versus Notre Dame's.

 

[Alydar]

In support of not focusing on the past I submit the NDame-TCU game. and the preceding NDame vs USC game. Nothing moves in a straight line. After holding USC to 12 pts in the 4th period of their win the Irish gave up 31 to TCU.

Paige is a really good defender (smart, quick, and great instincts). KK Arnold has the potential to be even better than good defensively. Beyond that, I'm not seeing an amazing perimeter defensive arsenal for UConn. By contrast, Hannah, Olivia, and Sonia are all, at worst, very good defenders (and great defenders at best, with Hannah having NDPOY potential). If there's one set of perimeter players in this match-up that I would not be surprised to see struggle against the other, it would be UConn's versus Notre Dame's.

How did Miles', Citron's and Hidalgo's "very good at their worst" defense allow 31 pts. in a period and lose after leading by 11 after 3. And that ignores the trio's offensive production in that 4th period.

UConn had the good sense to choke in the 3rd period, giving them an opportunity to recover.