Who will Sarah Strong pick?

[Dillon77]

Basketball rules at UConn due to the great success of the women's and men's teams........Neither Duke or UNC can touch UConn when it comes to the level of interest in women's basketball...........only South Carolina and Iowa can..........I don't think many great players would prefer playing big games in front of only 2,000-3,000 fans........

Warning before you read my comment on this subject: I've got zero -- nada -- preference in the prospect pick.

That said, Duke (Lawson) and Banghart (UNC) are both constructing solid rosters in the hope that they'll build up solid audiences. UConn's was not built immediately, nor S. Carolina. Iowa has solid crowds that went over the tipping point with Caitlinmania.

If Sarah Strong comes to UConn, she'll walk into arena that is already gong to be at/close to capacity. At Duke or UNC, she'll put fannies in seats. Her call...

 

[Bone Dog]

Next year, it will be Carolina, UCONN & Ohio State in that order, IMO... you might switch OSU for Notre Dame.

We too have a great backcourt coming back. Fulwiley may have a break out season. I will be interested to see how Adel Tac comes back from her high school injury. She's 6'6" so we'll see if she's the real deal.

I like your thinking. It puts SC and UConn 1 & 2, and that could go either way. Fulwiley Tessa and Tac are promising though not fully proven. Same could be said of Jana Ice and Ayanna. Of course, no one in their right mind would say that Paige and Azzi are unproven. I like the depth of SC, especially in the front court, even if Cardoso leaves. Watkins Kitts and Feagin with Joyce Edwards sounds like a really good group. If everyone comes back healthy, the annual UConn-SC game will be something to see.

I also like ND for next year, even if their front court may not be quite the equal of these two. But their backcourt could be tremendous. I'm not as confident in tOSU without Sheldon. Cambridge and Ava Watson could be good additions, but it's otherwise a pretty thin recruiting class. McGuff will have to hit the portal, I suspect.

 

[DRR25]

I would be very shocked. I can't see Geno even entertaining the idea.

I'm with you. Geno and I aren't pals or anything but I'd be shocked if he gave the idea one moment's thought.

 

[Cuango]

I think the issue here is one of end result. At UCONN, the message is; "your UCONN experience will give you deep roots of friendship and connection. You will leave a better person and, likely, a better basketball player." Not sure what it is at Duke or UNC but it is more focused on the court, than off of it. So, that will define Sarah. The fact that she is still debating this suggests to me that the UCONN approach will not be what she wants. And to whatever extent her dad is impacting the choice, I think he'll want her to stay in the south.

As no one really knows what or when her choice will be, I’ll just say that, while I desperately want her to come to UConn to play with Paige, she seems to be a very nice person and I hope & pray that she will make the choice that is most likely to result in a happy four years! I hope she is able to make that choice without any pressure from other sources. Again, she seems like the most mature, grounded young lady I’ve seen in quite some time and I wish her all the best that life has to offer. (Hopefully at UConn)

 

[DRR25]

North Carolina and Duke have been added to the list since everyone had her going to UCONN. I think now that those two schools may hold an edge....but who knows.

We don't really know which schools were on her original list because she's never said anything about having a list. I think she did mention a few schools that were interested in her. I think she was always considering the two biggies in her backyard but, like you said, who knows?

 

[hoophuskee]

Don’t get angry at me for saying the truth. If you were highly recruited and had an offer from UConn, would you honestly tell me you wouldn’t take what has happened at UConn the last 3 years as part of your decision? I know I would.

Injuries happen everywhere, but what has happened at UConn is unimaginable.

No -- I wouldn't. I wouldn't have gotten to be among one of the arguably 20 best player's in the world for my age by being scared that I might get hurt being as young as I am. When you were 17 yo, were you scared of injury?

 

[CaliHuskyFan]

I don’t know which school Strong will choose, but I don’t think she will come to Storrs. I hope I am wrong. But if you look at the history of UConn’s high school recruits the last 30 years, especially highly recruited kids, they tended to commit to UConn early if they decided to spend 4 years in Storrs.

As far as Lawson is concerned, she is a wonderful person, was a great analyst, her defense has been solid; however, her offense has been questionable. For some reasons, it has been hard for her players to score. I said questionable because she is in her what, 5th year, as head coach.

I don’t know anything about the coach at North Caroline. I can’t comment on her.

If I were her, and basketball is my priority, I’d go to UConn; if education, then Duke; if being the “man”, then NC.

The scenario you painted is not true in the last several years. Azzi Fudd and Christyn Williams are two examples of #1 High School players who came down to the wire of the first signing period. Megan Walker also. So not “early,” although it’s true that Paige did commit earlier.

 

[Cuango]

Next year, it will be Carolina, UCONN & Ohio State in that order, IMO... you might switch OSU for Notre Dame.

We too have a great backcourt coming back. Fulwiley may have a break out season. I will be interested to see how Adel Tac comes back from her high school injury. She's 6'6" so we'll see if she's the real deal.

I too think that If Strong commits to UConn, we are likely preseason#1. If not? Probably two.

 

[hoophuskee]

The scenario you painted is not true in the last several years. Azzi Fudd and Christyn Williams are two examples of #1 High School players who came down to the wire of the first signing period. Megan Walker also. So not “early,” although it’s true that Paige did commit earlier.

CWill committed to UCONN in Nov. And when speaking of other top recruits. I believe both Brady and Patterson commited early. As did Caroline. As did Edwards. In the year CWill committed, Charlie Collier committed ealry too. And Mikayla Coombs committed early in Walker's year. These have been recent top recrutis. As did Olivia in CWill's season.

 

[AgStatesman]

Take 2
The obvious answer is UConn. Sarah is trying to placate her fans in North Carolina by pretending she is still thinking of staying home. The longer she waits, the more she makes it look like the toughest decision she will ever make and will gain sympathy while going away. Duke may have been an option until Sarah looked at how overrated the coach has been. After year 4 Duke finished 7th in the ACC and she has one NCAA appearance in 4 years. That is not the pedigree Sarah is looking for.

 

[Zarathustra]

Of course, it was my opinion. However, I tried to put myself in her shoe when it comes to making an important decision on her future. And you are right, only Strong knows what she wants.

Change of topic, Fairfield just edged out against Niagara in overtime in the championship game, 70-62. So happy for them. They are going to the dance! Hope they will make some noise like Quinnipiac did a few years ago.

Thanks for the feedback. NICE! And we surely agree about the O.T. result in Atlantic City, N.J. = Go Fairfield STAGS! Somewhere Lou Lopez Senechal is smiling, GO HUSKIES!

 

[jumpstart]

We don't really know which schools were on her original list because she's never said anything about having a list. I think she did mention a few schools that were interested in her. I think she was always considering the two biggies in her backyard but, like you said, who knows?

I didn't say "she" had a list. The media has ways of gauging interest right or wrong and UNC nor Duke seemed to be at the top of any list I saw. I think that speaks volumes that those are the two left standing along with UCONN. If they were wrong about all the others, and then they had UCONN there as well. That seems to be an "OK...she is from North Carolina and there are two North Carolina schools in there that the national media never put in as a possible landing spot....so". Strong played it close so who knows but I would be surprised if it wasn't North Carolina or Duke. Just seems too easy at this point.

 

[jumpstart]

Take 2
The obvious answer is UConn. Sarah is trying to placate her fans in North Carolina by pretending she is still thinking of staying home. The longer she waits, the more she makes it look like the toughest decision she will ever make and will gain sympathy while going away. Duke may have been an option until Sarah looked at how overrated the coach has been. After year 4 Duke finished 7th in the ACC and she has one NCAA appearance in 4 years. That is not the pedigree Sarah is looking for.

Wow...I wonder if Strong knows what you seem to know about what she wants or doesn't want.....lol....maybe you should let her know.

 

[hoopsfan22]

I like your thinking. It puts SC and UConn 1 & 2, and that could go either way. Fulwiley Tessa and Tac are promising though not fully proven. Same could be said of Jana Ice and Ayanna. Of course, no one in their right mind would say that Paige and Azzi are unproven. I like the depth of SC, especially in the front court, even if Cardoso leaves. Watkins Kitts and Feagin with Joyce Edwards sounds like a really good group. If everyone comes back healthy, the annual UConn-SC game will be something to see.

I also like ND for next year, even if their front court may not be quite the equal of these two. But their backcourt could be tremendous. I'm not as confident in tOSU without Sheldon. Cambridge and Ava Watson could be good additions, but it's otherwise a pretty thin recruiting class. McGuff will have to hit the portal, I suspect.

Fudd is unproven IMO. Fulwiley has played in almost as many games as Fudd (40 vs. 32 and counting) at the collegiate level, and has scored almost as many points too (520 vs. 379 and counting).

 

[freshler40]

I have never been to Cameron Indoor Stadium but it is said to be a fabulous on-campus basketball facility, Cameron Crazies, etc., Dick Vitale baby.

It seats 9314.

It often sells out.

For the men, that is.

I looked at the attendance figures for the games on the Duke WCBB website. Looks like the women sold out once this year, for the North Carolina game on Sunday, February 11. No other game came close to that.

I was shocked looking at the attendance figures for Duke WCBB games there this season. Many games with attendance around 2,000. Duke versus Notre Dame on Monday February 19 only drew 2485 there. NC State on Sunday, February 25 at Cameron drew a decent 4633.

Ten games with attendance under 2500.

By comparison, UConn drew over 14,000 to a weekday game on February 7 against Seton Hall.

Maybe Lawson is selling the notion that Strong, Fournier et al will create the buzz and bring the crowds to Cameron, but if there is a leap of faith in this whole process, seems to me that is it. Even if they move the needle somewhat, it will still be hard to even get the arena half-filled.

What big time player wants to play to an empty house?

A great thoughtful analysis. The women's game appeals to a somewhat different fan but includes many hybrid types like me that enjoy the effort, team play and winter activities.

 

[jdote33]

Warning before you read my comment on this subject: I've got zero -- nada -- preference in the prospect pick.

That said, Duke (Lawson) and Banghart (UNC) are both constructing solid rosters in the hope that they'll build up solid audiences. UConn's was not built immediately, nor S. Carolina. Iowa has solid crowds that went over the tipping point with Caitlinmania.

If Sarah Strong comes to UConn, she'll walk into arena that is already gong to be at/close to capacity. At Duke or UNC, she'll put fannies in seats. Her call...

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Duke's recruiting class and current roster full of 3/4s. I think Duke would be fun for Strong but not sure of the fit for everyone.
North Carolina has been a bit disappointing the past two years. They have 4 year players who have the option of coming back. But idk about their underclassmen. I was high on Paulina Paris but she hasn't really broken out yet. Then they got Toomey last year and I believe have a big coming in this year. But how competitive will they be with nc state and Notre Dame next year

 

[Dillon77]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Duke's recruiting class and current roster full of 3/4s. I think Duke would be fun for Strong but not sure of the fit for everyone.
North Carolina has been a bit disappointing the past two years. They have 4 year players who have the option of coming back. But idk about their underclassmen. I was high on Paulina Paris but she hasn't really broken out yet. Then they got Toomey last year and I believe have a big coming in this year. But how competitive will they be with nc state and Notre Dame next year

Not to digress, but it will be interesting to see if Kelly or Ustby stay or move on (somewhere) next year. They do have a lot of height next year, which could open the door for Strong to do her thing.

Duke does have a not of tall shooting guards and wings, but I can see Strong working there, too.

But you're right: NC State is coming back strong, as is Notre Dame who are adding Center Kate Koval and return Olivia Miles, that "other" All-American point guard.

As noted, I'd hate to see Strong make NC and Duke stronger, but it will make for some heckuva ACC contests. And, as per usual with UConn, we'll see you come heck or high water in the winter.

 

[Jammer]

It really doesn’t matter, however, because the chance of that scenario unfolding is exactly zero.

Scholarship numbers matter little with NIL

Top players don’t worry about playing time, especially HS #1. Alpa personalities… cherish competition or you don’t want them.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I had a bit of a heart attack.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Better

 

[Bone Dog]

“Wes Moore’s track record in player development has been very good”?

Huh? Is there a record of Wolfpack players making it in the W? Or even staying at NC St for very long?

Sarah “would be a better version of what Dorka was”? Huh???

 

[JellyBean]

People who think like that should go read this book

The Improbability Principle

Why is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen?

improbability-principle.com

I apologize in advance of high jacking this thread.

OMG!! One of my favorite books!! The whole backstory about the novel "The Girl From Petrovka" and Anthony Hopkins was trippy! Just helps to understand why a person should think twice before finding coincidences astounding.

 

[Charliebball]

Warning before you read my comment on this subject: I've got zero -- nada -- preference in the prospect pick.

That said, Duke (Lawson) and Banghart (UNC) are both constructing solid rosters in the hope that they'll build up solid audiences. UConn's was not built immediately, nor S. Carolina. Iowa has solid crowds that went over the tipping point with Caitlinmania.

If Sarah Strong comes to UConn, she'll walk into arena that is already gong to be at/close to capacity. At Duke or UNC, she'll put fannies in seats. Her call...

I wasn't following WBB as closely back then, so I'd be interested to know how Duke's attendance was when the women's team was more competitive years ago.........I'm not sure Strong is the kind of player to instantly attract new fans, unlike that incredibly entertaining guard that ND pinched out of NJ......

 

[broooce]

Oregon pre-Sabrina averaged 1629 fans and just 2,600 fans her freshman year, but by her senior year they averaged 10k+.

Juju Watkins chose USC who averaged 1000 fans a game last year and within a year the attendance went up almost 4x and increased steadily throughout the season. Numbers will likely be much higher next year and her final 2 years.

If Strong is as good as advertised and Duke elevates as a program, she'll draw fans and Duke's attendance numbers will increase significantly over her 4 years.

I gave your post a "like" because I'm sure attendance will increase if Sarah goes to Duke. It certainly won't go down. But IMO it's about the overall team's success that drives attendance and ticket sales as well as having bona fide superstars like Caitlin Clark and Sabrina Ionescu that fans want to see!

Yet out of curiosity and for another point of reference I looked up Stanford's attendance this season - I think we'd all agree that Tara's teams have been consistently good for as many years as UConn. Yet this year they average a little more than 4000 fans per home game at Maples Pavillion that seats 7392. For a home game vs. Duke this season they had 4236 fans in an OT win and vs. then #15 USC they had 5371 fans in a loss. They almost sold out vs. then #7 UCLA with 7207 fans watching them win by double-digits.

Then I looked at UCLA where Cori Close is in her 13th season, and has had top-25 ranked teams in 9 of those years. A very good team in a top WBB conference. UCLA's average attendance this year in Pauley Pavillion is 4643 fans with an arena capacity of 13,800. They did get 13,659 fans for the game vs. then #9 USC (UCLA win).

In Lindsay Gottlieb's 3rd season at USC and with the top freshman in JuJu Watkins, they have their highest ranking in 38 years and first season as a top-25 team since the 94-95 season. Their attendance this year averaged 3856 fans in Galen Center which has a capacity of 10,258. They sold out the game with 10,657 vs. then #2 UCLA (USC win) and had 5762 fans vs. then #11 Colorado (although then #3 Colorado had 8474 fans vs. USC in Boulder). No doubt their attendance should rise over the next few seasons.

In Kara Lawson's four seasons at Duke, they been ranked in top-25 only twice, and not this season. Her recruiting has been mixed - several transfers out including her own recruits and several in; there are only 11 players on the roster this season. Attendance averages 2588 this season in Cameron Indoor Stadium which has a capacity of 9324. That's less than the 3018 average in 2021-22 when they went 17-13.

Courtney Banghart is in her fifth year and has had three top-25 seasons, although this year UNC will finish outside of that. Attendance averages 3679 in Carmichael Arena which has a capacity of 6822 after renovations. It's very important to note that the men's team no longer plays at Carmichael but at the Dean Smith Center which has a 21,750 seat capacity, and the women's don't play there at all!

In Kelsey Plum's senior year at Washington, those Huskies averaged under 4000 fans per home game in Hec Ed which has a capacity of 9268. And this was while she was going for the then NCAA scoring record.

This season Iowa leads average home attendance with 14,998, followed by South Carolina's 12,942, LSU's 11,491 and UConn's 10,255.

Coaches like to "sell" the impact of a top recruit to their program. IMO growing attendance shouldn't be an 18 year old's responsibility but the coaches' - Kara has had mixed results so far. And we know that Storrs is the basketball capital of the world!

As for academics, let's be totally honest: a player of Sarah's caliber is looking for a long and successful career in the WNBA which by the time she graduates will have expanded, and probably the collective bargaining agreement will have increased salaries as the sport grows in popularity. UConn does have an excellent honors program if that's important to her, but a UConn degree didn't inhibit top UConn WBB graduates from terrific careers after their playing days were over. If anything, that UConn pedigree is a huge asset. It goes without saying that a program that can best prepare her for that long and successful career is also very important consideration for sure. And Geno and his staff have that in buckets over Kara and Courtney.

 

[CaliHuskyFan]

CWill committed to UCONN in Nov. And when speaking of other top recruits. I believe both Brady and Patterson commited early. As did Caroline. As did Edwards. In the year CWill committed, Charlie Collier committed ealry too. And Mikayla Coombs committed early in Walker's year. These have been recent top recrutis. As did Olivia in CWill's season.

I don’t consider November to be “early,” I consider it to be normal and standard. I was specifically sighting #1 recruits. Charlie Collier (#2 Hoopgurlz) did commit early to Texas, then switched her commitment to UConn, then flipped back to Texas due to a major Hurricane and its impact on her family.

It is unusual for a #1 recruit like Sarah Stong for to commit this late, but I am glad that she is low key and taking her time to make the best choice for her. Hopefully she will choose UConn!

 

[hoophuskee]

I don’t consider November to be “early,” I consider it to be normal and standard. I was specifically sighting #1 recruits. Charlie Collier (#2 Hoopgurlz) did commit early to Texas, then switched her commitment to UConn, then flipped back to Texas due to a major Hurricane and its impact on her family.

It is unusual for a #1 recruit like Sarah Stong for to commit this late, but I am glad that she is low key and taking her time to make the best choice for her. Hopefully she will choose UConn!

I could be wrong about the other poster - butI think many of us do look at Nov as "early"- and even beyond the number 1's but players around the top 15. . So, in that context we're concerned that when it comes to someone- na elite recruit whther to be 1 or 12 (but elite) waiting deep into March, if not longer then UCONN doesn't have a good track record. Anyway, I've always considered November an early signing period and I thought everyone did as well which is why imo the 1st sentenca above is approrpriate when I make my assumption which apparently is different than yours. I guess we are comparing apples-to-oranges.

Maybe we would be agreeing if the comment was "highly recruited kids, they tended to commit to UConn by the normal signing period if they decided to spend 4 years in Storrs" instead of "highly recruited kids, they tended to commit to UConn early if they decided to spend 4 years in Storrs.?

 

[FormerCTrez]

Not to digress, but it will be interesting to see if Kelly or Ustby stay or move on (somewhere) next year. They do have a lot of height next year, which could open the door for Strong to do her thing.

Duke does have a not of tall shooting guards and wings, but I can see Strong working there, too.

But you're right: NC State is coming back strong, as is Notre Dame who are adding Center Kate Koval and return Olivia Miles, that "other" All-American point guard.

As noted, I'd hate to see Strong make NC and Duke stronger, but it will make for some heckuva ACC contests. And, as per usual with UConn, we'll see you come heck or high water in the winter.

@Dillon77, thanks for the Sunday morning chuckles!!

 

[UConnCat]

@Dillon77, thanks for the Sunday morning chuckles!

Always with the chuckles. Notre Dame must be mentioned in as many Boneyard threads as possible, relevancy be damned. We even got a Kate Koval mention!

 

[Dillon77]

Always with the chuckles. Notre Dame must be mentioned in as many Boneyard threads as possible, relevancy be damned. We even got a Kate Koval mention!

Alway good to hear from you, too, @UConnCat! Come on over to the General Thread more often...miss your input and perspective. Happy St. Patrick's Day, everyone!

 

[DefenseBB]

Speaking of which, I wonder whether Ms. Strong cares about these kinds of attendance per game numbers...........I sure would
Duke - 2,588
UNC - 3,679
UConn - 11,307

As an attendance afficionado, a applaud your comment here! I would also add what would concern me even more if I was Sarah was the volume of turnover on the roster year after year. The shear number of transfers that Kara has brought in over her current team and the fact so many have left. To whit:

In 4 years of coaching, Kara has brought in 16 transfers: 2023-24: Emsbo, Mair; 2022-23: Corosdale, Brown, Richardson, Shaffer, Heide: 2021-22: Taylor, Balogun, Oliver, Finlea-Guity, Lewis, Green, Gordon, Schmidt; and 2020-21Anastasieka.

She also had 2 of those transfers leave the program to another program- Celeste Taylor, Jordyn Oliver.

She's had 8 HoopGurlz Top 100 recruits, of the 4 prior to the 4 on this years roster, 2 transferred out- Shayeann Day-Wilson and Shay Bollin. My guess is at least 1 or 2 from this years class will also transfer out.

She's also had 3 other players leave the program and transfer into Big East schools- Baines at SHU, Claude at Georgetown and Volker at Marquette.

I don't care whatever the reasons are, that is a LOT of TURNOVER on a roster. Players seem to be recruited over and no continuity can be achieved with that type of roster churn. Is Sarah at risk of being recruited over at Duke, highly unlikely but who can she develop a long playing form with and the lack of any real success by Duke during Kara's 4 years is a concern.

UNC also listed has seemed to underachieve given all their top recruits and the irritating coaching style that Banghart utilizes (calling out opponents and her own players). that I think that is odd they are a finalist.

Remember, we are trying to glean something from a teenager's mind and having been a father of 3 of them, good luck with predicting that!