Who will Sarah Strong pick?

[Bone Dog]

“Wes Moore’s track record in player development has been very good”?

Huh? Is there a record of Wolfpack players making it in the W? Or even staying at NC St for very long?

Sarah “would be a better version of what Dorka was”? Huh???

 

[JellyBean]

People who think like that should go read this book

The Improbability Principle

Why is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen?

improbability-principle.com

I apologize in advance of high jacking this thread.

OMG!! One of my favorite books!! The whole backstory about the novel "The Girl From Petrovka" and Anthony Hopkins was trippy! Just helps to understand why a person should think twice before finding coincidences astounding.

 

[Charliebball]

Warning before you read my comment on this subject: I've got zero -- nada -- preference in the prospect pick.

That said, Duke (Lawson) and Banghart (UNC) are both constructing solid rosters in the hope that they'll build up solid audiences. UConn's was not built immediately, nor S. Carolina. Iowa has solid crowds that went over the tipping point with Caitlinmania.

If Sarah Strong comes to UConn, she'll walk into arena that is already gong to be at/close to capacity. At Duke or UNC, she'll put fannies in seats. Her call...

I wasn't following WBB as closely back then, so I'd be interested to know how Duke's attendance was when the women's team was more competitive years ago.........I'm not sure Strong is the kind of player to instantly attract new fans, unlike that incredibly entertaining guard that ND pinched out of NJ......

 

[broooce]

Oregon pre-Sabrina averaged 1629 fans and just 2,600 fans her freshman year, but by her senior year they averaged 10k+.

Juju Watkins chose USC who averaged 1000 fans a game last year and within a year the attendance went up almost 4x and increased steadily throughout the season. Numbers will likely be much higher next year and her final 2 years.

If Strong is as good as advertised and Duke elevates as a program, she'll draw fans and Duke's attendance numbers will increase significantly over her 4 years.

I gave your post a "like" because I'm sure attendance will increase if Sarah goes to Duke. It certainly won't go down. But IMO it's about the overall team's success that drives attendance and ticket sales as well as having bona fide superstars like Caitlin Clark and Sabrina Ionescu that fans want to see!

Yet out of curiosity and for another point of reference I looked up Stanford's attendance this season - I think we'd all agree that Tara's teams have been consistently good for as many years as UConn. Yet this year they average a little more than 4000 fans per home game at Maples Pavillion that seats 7392. For a home game vs. Duke this season they had 4236 fans in an OT win and vs. then #15 USC they had 5371 fans in a loss. They almost sold out vs. then #7 UCLA with 7207 fans watching them win by double-digits.

Then I looked at UCLA where Cori Close is in her 13th season, and has had top-25 ranked teams in 9 of those years. A very good team in a top WBB conference. UCLA's average attendance this year in Pauley Pavillion is 4643 fans with an arena capacity of 13,800. They did get 13,659 fans for the game vs. then #9 USC (UCLA win).

In Lindsay Gottlieb's 3rd season at USC and with the top freshman in JuJu Watkins, they have their highest ranking in 38 years and first season as a top-25 team since the 94-95 season. Their attendance this year averaged 3856 fans in Galen Center which has a capacity of 10,258. They sold out the game with 10,657 vs. then #2 UCLA (USC win) and had 5762 fans vs. then #11 Colorado (although then #3 Colorado had 8474 fans vs. USC in Boulder). No doubt their attendance should rise over the next few seasons.

In Kara Lawson's four seasons at Duke, they been ranked in top-25 only twice, and not this season. Her recruiting has been mixed - several transfers out including her own recruits and several in; there are only 11 players on the roster this season. Attendance averages 2588 this season in Cameron Indoor Stadium which has a capacity of 9324. That's less than the 3018 average in 2021-22 when they went 17-13.

Courtney Banghart is in her fifth year and has had three top-25 seasons, although this year UNC will finish outside of that. Attendance averages 3679 in Carmichael Arena which has a capacity of 6822 after renovations. It's very important to note that the men's team no longer plays at Carmichael but at the Dean Smith Center which has a 21,750 seat capacity, and the women's don't play there at all!

In Kelsey Plum's senior year at Washington, those Huskies averaged under 4000 fans per home game in Hec Ed which has a capacity of 9268. And this was while she was going for the then NCAA scoring record.

This season Iowa leads average home attendance with 14,998, followed by South Carolina's 12,942, LSU's 11,491 and UConn's 10,255.

Coaches like to "sell" the impact of a top recruit to their program. IMO growing attendance shouldn't be an 18 year old's responsibility but the coaches' - Kara has had mixed results so far. And we know that Storrs is the basketball capital of the world!

As for academics, let's be totally honest: a player of Sarah's caliber is looking for a long and successful career in the WNBA which by the time she graduates will have expanded, and probably the collective bargaining agreement will have increased salaries as the sport grows in popularity. UConn does have an excellent honors program if that's important to her, but a UConn degree didn't inhibit top UConn WBB graduates from terrific careers after their playing days were over. If anything, that UConn pedigree is a huge asset. It goes without saying that a program that can best prepare her for that long and successful career is also very important consideration for sure. And Geno and his staff have that in buckets over Kara and Courtney.

 

[CaliHuskyFan]

CWill committed to UCONN in Nov. And when speaking of other top recruits. I believe both Brady and Patterson commited early. As did Caroline. As did Edwards. In the year CWill committed, Charlie Collier committed ealry too. And Mikayla Coombs committed early in Walker's year. These have been recent top recrutis. As did Olivia in CWill's season.

I don’t consider November to be “early,” I consider it to be normal and standard. I was specifically sighting #1 recruits. Charlie Collier (#2 Hoopgurlz) did commit early to Texas, then switched her commitment to UConn, then flipped back to Texas due to a major Hurricane and its impact on her family.

It is unusual for a #1 recruit like Sarah Stong for to commit this late, but I am glad that she is low key and taking her time to make the best choice for her. Hopefully she will choose UConn!

 

[hoophuskee]

I don’t consider November to be “early,” I consider it to be normal and standard. I was specifically sighting #1 recruits. Charlie Collier (#2 Hoopgurlz) did commit early to Texas, then switched her commitment to UConn, then flipped back to Texas due to a major Hurricane and its impact on her family.

It is unusual for a #1 recruit like Sarah Stong for to commit this late, but I am glad that she is low key and taking her time to make the best choice for her. Hopefully she will choose UConn!

I could be wrong about the other poster - butI think many of us do look at Nov as "early"- and even beyond the number 1's but players around the top 15. . So, in that context we're concerned that when it comes to someone- na elite recruit whther to be 1 or 12 (but elite) waiting deep into March, if not longer then UCONN doesn't have a good track record. Anyway, I've always considered November an early signing period and I thought everyone did as well which is why imo the 1st sentenca above is approrpriate when I make my assumption which apparently is different than yours. I guess we are comparing apples-to-oranges.

Maybe we would be agreeing if the comment was "highly recruited kids, they tended to commit to UConn by the normal signing period if they decided to spend 4 years in Storrs" instead of "highly recruited kids, they tended to commit to UConn early if they decided to spend 4 years in Storrs.?

 

[FormerCTrez]

Not to digress, but it will be interesting to see if Kelly or Ustby stay or move on (somewhere) next year. They do have a lot of height next year, which could open the door for Strong to do her thing.

Duke does have a not of tall shooting guards and wings, but I can see Strong working there, too.

But you're right: NC State is coming back strong, as is Notre Dame who are adding Center Kate Koval and return Olivia Miles, that "other" All-American point guard.

As noted, I'd hate to see Strong make NC and Duke stronger, but it will make for some heckuva ACC contests. And, as per usual with UConn, we'll see you come heck or high water in the winter.

@Dillon77, thanks for the Sunday morning chuckles!!

 

[UConnCat]

@Dillon77, thanks for the Sunday morning chuckles!

Always with the chuckles. Notre Dame must be mentioned in as many Boneyard threads as possible, relevancy be damned. We even got a Kate Koval mention!

 

[Dillon77]

Always with the chuckles. Notre Dame must be mentioned in as many Boneyard threads as possible, relevancy be damned. We even got a Kate Koval mention!

Alway good to hear from you, too, @UConnCat! Come on over to the General Thread more often...miss your input and perspective. Happy St. Patrick's Day, everyone!

 

[DefenseBB]

Speaking of which, I wonder whether Ms. Strong cares about these kinds of attendance per game numbers...........I sure would
Duke - 2,588
UNC - 3,679
UConn - 11,307

As an attendance afficionado, a applaud your comment here! I would also add what would concern me even more if I was Sarah was the volume of turnover on the roster year after year. The shear number of transfers that Kara has brought in over her current team and the fact so many have left. To whit:

In 4 years of coaching, Kara has brought in 16 transfers: 2023-24: Emsbo, Mair; 2022-23: Corosdale, Brown, Richardson, Shaffer, Heide: 2021-22: Taylor, Balogun, Oliver, Finlea-Guity, Lewis, Green, Gordon, Schmidt; and 2020-21Anastasieka.

She also had 2 of those transfers leave the program to another program- Celeste Taylor, Jordyn Oliver.

She's had 8 HoopGurlz Top 100 recruits, of the 4 prior to the 4 on this years roster, 2 transferred out- Shayeann Day-Wilson and Shay Bollin. My guess is at least 1 or 2 from this years class will also transfer out.

She's also had 3 other players leave the program and transfer into Big East schools- Baines at SHU, Claude at Georgetown and Volker at Marquette.

I don't care whatever the reasons are, that is a LOT of TURNOVER on a roster. Players seem to be recruited over and no continuity can be achieved with that type of roster churn. Is Sarah at risk of being recruited over at Duke, highly unlikely but who can she develop a long playing form with and the lack of any real success by Duke during Kara's 4 years is a concern.

UNC also listed has seemed to underachieve given all their top recruits and the irritating coaching style that Banghart utilizes (calling out opponents and her own players). that I think that is odd they are a finalist.

Remember, we are trying to glean something from a teenager's mind and having been a father of 3 of them, good luck with predicting that!

 

[Longtime fan]

She’s a 3/4, like Aubrey

Thank you.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Sarah will pick : UCONN 1, Duke 2, UNC 3. If she goes to UNC, there will not be enough support around her to get to a NCAA Championship....(that's the problem with IOWA. Caitlin is the GOAT but supporting cast is weak).

If she goes to UCONN, they will be an instant contender with Carolina.

I will be mildly surprised if she doesn’t announce for UConn. There were rumors months ago that she had already committed to UConn but Geno told her to think about it, if she wasn’t 100% sure. If she’s as good as advertised she will play as a freshman, maybe all forty minutes like Ashlyn. Lol

 

[Cuango]

Strong’s choice will be determined by what her priorities are. Obviously the three schools left have satisfied her desires at some level So I think we can eliminate the actual schools as a factor. Coaches? You have to believe she is fairly happy with all three. Facilities? I have to believe UConn‘s are probably the best but I’m sure all are top notch. Rosters? Again UConn clearly has the best roster but it may be that she likes some player on the other two and wants to play with them. Chances for a title? This one is overwhelmingly UConn! The question is, how important is a title to Ms Strong? Finally, Family! Is being close to home important to her? Here is where UConn loses big time! We can only hope Sarah is eager to get out in the world and is ready to stretch her wings!

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Strong’s choice will be determined by what her priorities are. Obviously the three schools left have satisfied her desires at some level So I think we can eliminate the actual schools as a factor. Coaches? You have to believe she is fairly happy with all three. Facilities? I have to believe UConn‘s are probably the best but I’m sure all are top notch. Rosters? Again UConn clearly has the best roster but it may be that she likes some player on the other two and wants to play with them. Chances for a title? This one is overwhelmingly UConn! The question is, how important is a title to Ms Strong? Finally, Family! Is being close to home important to her? Here is where UConn loses big time! We can only hope Sarah is eager to get out in the world and is ready to stretch her wings!

All excellent points. I want to believe that when a Player of Sarah Strong's abilities graduates from HS, she would want to pursue the best School for the combination of Academics, Quality of the Basketball Program and it's level of Competition, the ability to develop her game to become a WNBA star and future Olympian, and so on... and that proximity to family is some where further down the list. UCONN has gotten some great players who became better players from all over the Country (DT from California, KLS from California, Maya Moore from Missouri, Napheesa Collier from Missouri, Paige Bueckers from Minnesota, AND many more)... These women became nationally known in WBB and went on to Olympics, WNBA and other exceptional careers. And, their Moms and Dads were able to make the trips to see they play across the country because of the kind of Schedule Geno put together every year.

Spread your Wings Miss Strong... there is a lot to see in this here USA.

 

[hoopsdiva]

She’s a 3/4, like Aubrey

In that case, I wonder if Aubrey's return has any impact on her decision. It really shouldn't, I'm no expert but I wouldn't expect Aubrey back before late December/January, and even then with some serious minutes limitations.

 

[hoophuskee]

In that case, I wonder if Aubrey's return has any impact on her decision. It really shouldn't, I'm no expert but I wouldn't expect Aubrey back before late December/January, and even then with some serious minutes limitations.

It would have zero impact. As you mention Aubrey injury and when she returns she won't be ready for some time. Also Aubrey is mor of a slash rebounder. UCONN struggles more with power rebounding teams. Plus Sarah is the better passer and shooter. Wen Aubrey comes back she'll be off the bench like she has mostly been and a valued contributor. While Sarah may verily be 2nd leading scorer or if she is really super -- Paige is gonna make sure she is the number 1 scorer because we know Paige lives-and-breathes for passing though she is tremendous scorer too.


The thing is—I believe an elite strength (other than shooting/scoring) of Sarah is her passing. So, like Paige, but different, she is going to set up everyone and make them better too. That's why we say she is so perfect for this team.

1--- UCONN loves to run a passing motion offense - she's a passer.
2-- UCONN loves to take 3's in fats paced offense, she's a 3pt shooter.
3--- UCONN needs tough inside rebounding. She’s a tough inside rebounder.
4--- UCONN currently has one player in Paige you can have go one-on-one and score efficiently after Aaliyah leaves. Sarah would be the 2nd.

 

[ERWUC65]

Waiting on the final bracket. Not a lot of changes at the top. High probability it will remain as predicted with UConn a 3 in Portland 3. Should that remain, and Duke a 6 also in Portland 3, we would play them in Round 2 at home. Another probability that Sarah would be in attendance and make her announcement after the game?

 

[BRS24]

Waiting on the final bracket. Not a lot of changes at the top. High probability it will remain as predicted with UConn a 3 in Portland 3. Should that remain, and Duke a 6 also in Portland 3, we would play them in Round 2 at home. Another probability that Sarah would be in attendance and make her announcement after the game?

I've read this elsewhere, and based on how little information came out of the Strong camp, I don't think is their style? If her decision is between UConn & Duke, announcing it after that potential matchup would potentially be a bit bitter for either team.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I've read this elsewhere, and based on how little information came out of the Strong camp, I'm not sure this is in their style? If her decision is between UConn & Duke, announcing it after that potential matchup would potentially be a bit bitter for either team.

Almost as bad as a coin toss.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Waiting on the final bracket. Not a lot of changes at the top. High probability it will remain as predicted with UConn a 3 in Portland 3. Should that remain, and Duke a 6 also in Portland 3, we would play them in Round 2 at home. Another probability that Sarah would be in attendance and make her announcement after the game?

There is not a high probably Charlie creme is right about anything.

 

[triaddukefan]

Waiting on the final bracket. Not a lot of changes at the top. High probability it will remain as predicted with UConn a 3 in Portland 3. Should that remain, and Duke a 6 also in Portland 3, we would play them in Round 2 at home. Another probability that Sarah would be in attendance and make her announcement after the game?

 

[Bigboote]

The thing is—I believe an elite strength (other than shooting/scoring) of Sarah is her passing. So, like Paige, but different, she is going to set up everyone and make them better too. That's why we say she is so perfect for this team.

1--- UCONN loves to run a passing motion offense - she's a passer.
2-- UCONN loves to take 3's in fats paced offense, she's a 3pt shooter.
3--- UCONN needs tough inside rebounding. She’s a tough inside rebounder.
4--- UCONN currently has one player in Paige you can have go one-on-one and score efficiently after Aaliyah leaves. Sarah would be the 2nd.

5 -- UConn has had some GREAT high-low combos. Gabby led the team in assists twice, and Stef had some very high-assist years. Stewie and Tuck both had over 100 some years.

 

[David54]

There’s no way Paige or anyone else is going to give up a scholarship. If Strong wants to come to UConn there will be a scholarship for her.

 

[Jewels]

In that case, I wonder if Aubrey's return has any impact on her decision. It really shouldn't, I'm no expert but I wouldn't expect Aubrey back before late December/January, and even then with some serious minutes limitations.

Has anyone seen any indication that Aubrey has had her surgery. I have not seen the usual UConn announcement of successful surgery.

 

[darrell]

Has anyone seen any indication that Aubrey has had her surgery. I have not seen the usual UConn announcement of successful surgery.