Who will replace the graduated points and rebounds for us this season?

[winlots]

The trio of Dolson, Hartley, and Banks generated some 32 points and 14 rebounds per game last season. Seems like a lot to replace when you consider that we have only six returning scholarship players.

Last years production from the returning players went like this:
POINTS: Stewart 19 Lewis 13 Jefferson 10 Tuck 8 Chong 5 Stokes 4 Lawlor/Pulido 1
BOARDS: Stewart 8 Lewis 5 Jefferson 3 Tuck 2 Chong 2 Stokes 7 Lawlor/Pulido 1

Add in Edwards, Ekmark, Nurse, Williams.

Who ya gonna call (on) for the missing P and R?

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Lewis's numbers were low because of injury. I expect her ppg and rebounds to increase hugely.
Stokes will most likely be starting and that should help increase her totals.... and after the praise she received nation wide last year I expect her confidence is through the roof. so her numbers go up

Tuck... Tuck will be the biggest x factor. I expect if she can play to go through the roof as well.

 

[01Neaggrad02]

As for the incoming freshman... I have heard amazing things about Ekmark and Nurse, and Geno supposedly is over the moon with both. That is not to say that Edwards and Williams are bad...just have not heard as much.

 

[DavidinNaples]

In the 2013/14 season, the UConn Huskies scored 3,283 points (82.1 per game) in route to a 40-0 record and 9th National Championship. That total was 65 pts more than in 2012/13, although last year's average was slightly higher at 82.5 per, in one less game. Still, the 3,283 pts this year was remarkable considering the issues faced by the offense:
1. KML, last year's leading scorer, was injured several times during the season and scored 296 fewer pts this year.
2. Morgan Tuck, the first option of the bench and a powerful force in the paint, missed almost the whole season and scored only 60 pts. (Last year she had 225 pts in 35 games.)
3. With KML out, Bria Hartley led the team in 3 pt attempts w/ 224, but was less accurate at only 36.6% vs 49.2% for Kaleena.
4. With injuries and an inconsistent bench,UConn's production from reserves fell to under 600 pts vs over 800 in 2012/13.

As UConn always does, the issues impacting scoring were addressed and solved. Stewie stepped up and scored 280 more pts than last year. MoJeff also responded with 218 additional pts. Most of all, Bria assumed more offensive responsibility and finished 305 pts ahead of her 2012/13 total. With Dolson pretty much matching last year's output w/ 498 pts, those four warriors started all 40 games, played 62% of the team's minutes and scored 71% of UConn's total points. Since Dolson and Hartley scored 1,145 pts, the challenge next year is formitable w/ 35% of the offense now playing in the WNBA. That comes to 28 pts/game that needs to be replaced.

Here are five possible sources for covering the 1,145 pts lost to graduation:
1. A healthy KML and Morgan Tuck would be a great start for making up some of that scoring . Just equaling their 2012/13 totals would add close to 500 pts.
2. MoJeff averaged 10.0 pts per game on 57.5% accuracy. However, she took only 273 shots vs 511 for Hartley. Shooting more, with her accuracy, would probably add 4-6 pts to her average and 160-220 to her total scoring.
3. Kiah Stokes may surprise this year w/ improved offense. She had 90 offensive rebounds in just 723 minutes of play. Only Stewie had more w/ 92, but that was in 1,221 minutes. Look for many of Kiah's points to come off short putbacks from offensive rebounds and additional free throws as teams struggle to handle her size and strength.
4. Saniya Chong and Brianna Banks scored 313 combined pts last season in 1,192 minutes. However, together they missed 94 three pointers on 31% accuracy. Between those two, Courtney Ekmark, Kia Nurse and the other freshman, UConn will need more shooting and better accuracy to make up 1/2 of Bria's 16 pt average.
5. Stewie. Just watch and smile.

UConn beat all forty opponents last year by an average of over 34 points/game. If the defense improves, even slightly, UConn may not even need to replace all the 1,145 pts that graduated. But, a healthy KML and Tuck, further improvement from MoJeff and Stewie, added scoring from Kiah and potent scorers coming off the bench could all lessen the loss of Stef and Bria and keep the scoring average over 80 pts /game. That should do the trick.

 

[Kibitzer]

Once and for all. Kaleena's last name is Mosqueda-Lewis. Do the courteous thing and call her that (or KML), not the truncated "Lewis."

 

[slimmer56]

I agree that Kaleena's numbers should go up in every category. I see her having a monster year.

Also, I agree that Morgan Tuck really is the x-factor. She has been so good when she has been healthy.
She will be a fantastic leader too. Does anyone know if she has a date set on when she can go full speed.
I remember the pre-injured Caroline Doty and the post-injured Caroline. My gosh. Her freshman year she was fast as lightning, and could shoot the trey, especially in transition. Bye bye, Bang-Bang ! You were great. I just hope and pray we see the "great" Morgan. She is something special.

Watch out for Kia and Courtney. They are going to light it up !

 

[Waquoit]

Somebody will pick up those rebounds, whomever happens to be in the game at the time I imagine.. The ball isn't going to fall to the floor.

 

[Icebear]

The simple answer is, "Whoever is on the court."

 

[pap49cba]

Well, our #1 in the country scoring margin of 34.3 pts. more than offsets the 32 pts. lost to graduation. So no one has to step up.

 

[xHunt3r]

....Who ya gonna call (on) for the missing P and R?

Kalenna, Kiah, Breanna, Moriah, Morgan, Briana, Saniya, Tierney, Courtney, Kia, Saddie, and Gabby

 

[wallman]

Kaleena at 100% is a scary thought. Expecting some exciting basketball.

 

[vtcwbuff]

The simple answer is, "Whoever is on the court."

The simplest answer is most often the correct one.

 

[winlots]

DAVID: good and interesting data and observations as always. Enjoyed the details.
SLIM: do you have any numbers in mind for what you think those two frosh could do?
PAP: good chuckle on that one. Certainly a reassuring way to look at it. Sure would make for some pretty tight games though, eh?

Given the talent that most of us seem to think is on the squad this year, I'm hoping and thinking that the minutes will be spread around somewhat more evenly this year, both to help prevent injuries and to develop a deeper bench for when injuries/illnesses do occur. Last year we had five players log right around 30 minutes per game.
As I noted before the season last year, the odds are that the annual injury/illness issue unfortunately is not the "assuming no one gets hurt/sick" which many of us, including myself, salt into our predictions; it is probably really "who will get hurt/sick and how seriously?"
In addition, those who enter the season coming back from injuries will perhaps log fewer minutes than they otherwise would have, especially early on.
For those reasons, I'm thinking that the returning players might not add as much to their numbers collectively as some might assume, just as a function of minutes on the court. And also for those same reasons, I'm thinking that a significant portion of the make-up in points and rebounds might come from "The Four Freshmen." I could see them combining for 20 of the missing 32 P and 6 of the 14 R, and easily combining for a bit north of forty minutes of playing time.

 

[cferraro04]

I love doing this exercise...I have done it almost every year for the past 5 or 6 years...and I must say...I have been fairly close each year.

Returning Players

Stewart - 2013-14 - 19 points; 8 boards. 2014-15 - 23 points; 10 boards
Lewis - 2013-14 - 13 points; 5 boards. 2014-15 - 19 points; 7 boards
Stokes - 2013-14 - 4 points; 7 boards. 2014-15 - 8 points; 9 boards
Jefferson - 2013-14 - 10 points; 3 boards. 2014-15 - 13 points; 3 boards
Tuck - 2013-14 - 8 points; 2 boards. 2014-15 - 11 points; 5 board
Chong - 2013-14 - 5 points; 2 boards. 2014-15 - 7 points; 3 boards


81 points / 37 rebounds


Incoming Freshmen

Edwards - 3 points / 1 rebound
Ekmark - 5 points / 2 rebounds
Nurse - 5 points / 3 rebounds
Williams - when healthy - 7 points / 5 rebounds


20 points / 11 rebounds.

Total returning players and Freshmen

101 points / 48 rebounds

Minus my annual 15% bias factor for wearing my perpetual Husky Blue Glasses

2013-14 - 82.1 points per game / 42.9 rebounds per game.

2014-15 - 86.0 points per game /41.0 rebounds per game.

 

[chrissaran]

Kiah will get her points on put backs and short to mid range jumpers, which is not a problem when you have Kaleena, Bre, and Courtney shooting threes. I don't know about the outside shooting ability of Sadie, Gabby and Kia. If they have three point range also, it will be a long year for opposing defenses. I agree with all of you who said that Morgan is key to the success of this year's team. We have no front court depth other than Morgan. Hopefully, we will not be seeing much of the four guard offense. It makes it difficult to guard the post and rebound.

 

[winlots]

Kalenna, Kiah, Breanna, Moriah, Morgan, Briana, Saniya, Tierney, Courtney, Kia, Saddie, and Gabby

XH: good one, and very hard to take an opposing view on that

 

[winlots]

I love doing this exercise...I have done it almost every year for the past 5 or 6 years...and I must say...I have been fairly close each year.

Returning Players

Stewart - 2013-14 - 19 points; 8 boards. 2014-15 - 23 points; 10 boards
Lewis - 2013-14 - 13 points; 5 boards. 2014-15 - 19 points; 7 boards
Stokes - 2013-14 - 4 points; 7 boards. 2014-15 - 8 points; 9 boards
Jefferson - 2013-14 - 10 points; 3 boards. 2014-15 - 13 points; 3 boards
Tuck - 2013-14 - 8 points; 2 boards. 2014-15 - 11 points; 5 board
Chong - 2013-14 - 5 points; 2 boards. 2014-15 - 7 points; 3 boards


81 points / 37 rebounds


Incoming Freshmen

Edwards - 3 points / 1 rebound
Ekmark - 5 points / 2 rebounds
Nurse - 5 points / 3 rebounds
Williams - when healthy - 7 points / 5 rebounds


20 points / 11 rebounds.

Total returning players and Freshmen

101 points / 48 rebounds

Minus my annual 15% bias factor for wearing my perpetual Husky Blue Glasses

2013-14 - 82.1 points per game / 42.9 rebounds per game.

CF: Terrific. Exactly the kind of stuff I was looking for. Interestingly enuf, I have the exact same figures on my own sheet for Stokes and Tuck re both P and R......Jefferson and Lewis for R.....Chong for P.....and we both show a combined 20 P for the frosh. Given my record for predicting, this has to be devastating news for you.



CF: Terrific. That's the kind of stuff I was hoping to see.
2014-15 - 86.0 points per game /41.0 rebounds per game.

 

[msf22b]

CF:

The problem is one of arithmetic
You say 81
I say 59
big difference.
But if you add in your conservative 2o from the kiddie-corps
It still brings you to 79; not a far cry away.

 

[bob neal]

Somebody will pick up those rebounds, whomever happens to be in the game at the time I imagine.. The ball isn't going to fall to the floor.

EXACTLY-I expect we will average more than 82 points and win by an average of over 34 points but who will do remains to be seen but it will happen. I don't care who does it, OK ?

 

[cferraro04]

CF:

The problem is one of arithmetic
You say 81
I say 59
big difference.
But if you add in your conservative 2o from the kiddie-corps
It still brings you to 79; not a far cry away.

I would say it is a problem with perception...as I do not see how you got the 59 points. In fact, I think you would have to confine this bunch of stars to wheel chairs to keep them under 60. Could you elaborate please.

 

[msf22b]

I took your numbers from this past season's efforts = 59 (from your numbers if my arith in head correct)

 

[cferraro04]

I took your numbers from this past season's efforts = 59 (from your numbers if my arith in head correct)

Why would you do that when I included a projected point total for this year? I don't think you can accurately say that these players will average what they averaged last year. Take Kiah and Morgan both of which will get significantly more minutes than last year. Kaleena's numbers were down last year due to injuries and mono. I have no doubt that Breanna will emerge as even more unstoppable than last year. Mo Jeff will be the number one point guard in the country this year.

 

[Kibitzer]

Let me suggest a different prognosis.

Any team playing vs. UConn will be severely challenged to score 55 points or more. Only a very few will do it.

These same teams will be similarly challenged to limit UConn to 85 points or fewer. A couple may do it.

I would rely on CFerarro's analysis for backup.

This translates to another season of 30+ margins of victory. Maybe more.

I'll take it.

 

[msf22b]

Why would you do that when I included a projected point total for this year? I don't think you can accurately say that these players will average what they averaged last year. Take Kiah and Morgan both of which will get significantly more minutes than last year. Kaleena's numbers were down last year due to injuries and mono. I have no doubt that Breanna will emerge as even more unstoppable than last year. Mo Jeff will be the number one point guard in the country this year.

Agreed…I became fixated on last year's numbers, my bad.

 

[ndmb]

Once and for all. Kaleena's last name is Mosqueda-Lewis. Do the courteous thing and call her that (or KML), not the truncated "Lewis."

Do you know that she minds? I've heard Geno refer to her as Kaleena Lewis a few times. I also have a hyphenated last name, but I casually refer to myself with only one last name to avoid confusion, so it's not a given that KML would take offense.