Who will be the primary backup center for Jana?

[JoePgh]

Great question. I want to see Jana play at this level. Can she avoid foul trouble? If she can stay on the floor she will be the key. Freshman bigs tend to fight foul trouble early in their careers. Jana has some international experience that may help her. We will see. But I feel that she is a huge key for this squad. She must play at UCONN level without getting in early foul trouble.

She will get into foul trouble, just like nearly every inexperienced front court player UConn has ever had. So will Sarah, Ice, and Ayanna. Fortunately there are four of them to cover the two positions, with depth protection from Aubrey, Caroline, and the other "post adjacent" players.

That's the only reason why foul trouble in the front court should be a manageable problem this season.

 

[Dogstar]

Every defense can be beaten:

• The man-to-man defense of tall athletic teams, which often involve hyper-aggressive gambles, can be beaten sometimes quickly and methodically (e.g. backdoor cuts) as with prior UConn teams’ matchups with Tennessee in its heyday;
• Geno’s main defense when executed by his formidable teams can be beaten occasionally, but usually slowly and painfully, say by a tall athletic team poking until it finds a mismatch, usually in the post that allows its (phone book) post offense;
• Geno will gladly trade that with quick surgical efficient offense on its own possessions;
• by controlling pace (more possessions) and allowing its defense more chances to steal possessions, Geno’s teams can win without winning the rebounding battle;
• if Geno’s switching defense is beaten because a player (consistently) misses a defensive assignment, he will replace that player, and it will be a departure point for a learning experience for that player;
• if Geno’s switching defense is somehow ineffective for consecutive possessions, he will switch up the defense or call a timeout;
• Geno’s defense requires a necessary skill: tough defense without fouling; it is ok to be beaten defensively while exacting a price — a slow torturous offensive possession by an opponent.

On balance, Geno’s schemes have resulted in the most championships.

Geno’s teams can win without winning the rebounding battle;

Hmmmm I agree with most of your post but this one is a glass half full statement. As I've posted b4 UConn had a record of 31-6 last year, in those 37 games they were out rebounded 11 times, out of those 11 games they lost six of them, the teams tht out rebounded them were....
NC state. 41-29
UCLA. 44-36
Texas. 32-29
ND. 37-27
SC. 46-37
and Iowa. 37-29
They were out rebounded but won against....
Maryland. 36-35
NC. 43-33
Georgetown. 44-27
Providence. 45-39
and Duke. 43-28
Coincidence?....maybe, but if the team's going to win the BIG game(s) they'll have to control the boards both offensively and defensively. With the addition of Jana, Sarah, and a healthy Aubrey I thk tht there will be a big boost in the rebounding numbers which should equate to more wins which brings more smiles, Likes and less grumbling on the Boneyard. Imho

 

[Cuango]

The OP is infatuated with height. One or two years ago he or she found an article that stats show that a team should try to employ a big player to win the opening tip so they can gain one extra possession or something like that. The OP seeks anything that he or she can find that will highlight bigs. He's in contrast to Geno's style of small-ball which is why he or she also blames him in some high qty manner for many of his losses. He or she is well-intentioned but can get easily duped because of his or her infatuation with Bigs.

The article is about as relevant as someone doing research looking up statistics on Briana Pulido and noticing her record when she is put in the game is extraordinarily high therefore the conclusion must be to play her more. In this manner I can also call myself an analyst because I did the research that confirms this. Then publish the article and pretend like it has meaning. Put Briana in and you will win 98% of the time. LOL.

“That was way harsh, Tai!”

 

[oldhusky]

Geno’s teams can win without winning the rebounding battle;

Hmmmm I agree with most of your post but this one is a glass half full statement. As I've posted b4 UConn had a record of 31-6 last year, in those 37 games they were out rebounded 11 times, out of those 11 games they lost six of them, the teams tht out rebounded them were....
NC state. 41-29
UCLA. 44-36
Texas. 32-29
ND. 37-27
SC. 46-37
and Iowa. 37-29
They were out rebounded but won against....
Maryland. 36-35
NC. 43-33
Georgetown. 44-27
Providence. 45-39
and Duke. 43-28
Coincidence?....maybe, but if the team's going to win the BIG game(s) they'll have to control the boards both offensively and defensively. With the addition of Jana, Sarah, and a healthy Aubrey I thk tht there will be a big boost in the rebounding numbers which should equate to more wins which brings more smiles, Likes and less grumbling on the Boneyard. Imho

In addition to your comments those 6 losses include 4 of the 6 teams generally considered along with Uconn to be the top 7 contenders this year. Of course we will be an above average rebounding team this year relative to our overall schedule, but we are usually very near the top percentiles in most statistical categories.

When judging the team's relative strengths and weaknesses against a very high Uconn standard, the more relevant question is how we stack up on rebounding, size, blocked shots etc. vs those top contenders. From that standpoint rebounding could be a "relative" weakness on a team that has few. I expect shooting/scoring and passing/ball-handling to be very elite, and defense to be very good, but rebounding against the best of the best might be more mid-range IMO.

There is great hope that Jana and Sarah will be very good on the boards, but they don't have a division 1 track record yet. Among the players with division 1 experience, Ayanna was maybe slightly above average (hopefully lower than her potential because of knee issues) and Ice IMO was significantly below average for her size. Q had more rebounds per minute for example. Since she was presumably recovered from her injury I don't expect her rebounding or shot blocking numbers to show much improvement, but I do expect her to be a much better offensive player in the future.

So to be a really good rebounding team we need to start two bigs, Jana and Sarah. They both need to be a good on the boards as we expect, and they both need to consume the vast majority of the minutes at the 4 and 5. If we have to play Ayanna and Ice as much as Sarah and Jana, and or play small ball much of the time, rebounding could be our biggest weakness relatively speaking.

 

[Bone Dog]

So to be a really good rebounding team we need to start two bigs, Jana and Sarah. They both need to be a good on the boards as we expect, and they both need to consume the vast majority of the minutes at the 4 and 5. If we have to play Ayanna and Ice as much as Sarah and Jana, and or play small ball much of the time, rebounding could be our biggest weakness relatively speaking.

This is a compelling take on the situation. And yet I wonder if the rebounding situation will be affected by the perimeter shooting skills the team is likely to have. If they hoist up more 3s, this could mean more long rebounds, and this could mean more rebounds by the guards. We lost a heckuva scrappy rebounding guard in Nika. But I have a feeling KK and Ash are ready to pick up that slack. I don't expect the guards to get the majority of the rebounds. Still, if we get 10 more rebounds from the back court, even middling rebounding numbers for the front court may be enough to make us an elite rebounding team.

 

[Alydar]

Great question. I want to see Jana play at this level. Can she avoid foul trouble? If she can stay on the floor she will be the key. Freshman bigs tend to fight foul trouble early in their careers. Jana has some international experience that may help her. We will see. But I feel that she is a huge key for this squad. She must play at UCONN level without getting in early foul trouble.

+1 My guess, from what Geno and Bueckers have said is that she will foul a lot at first. I read something that said that it's easier to tone down over-aggressive players than to teach aggression. So I think they will let her foul out. Right now my guess is that Brady will start. She can guard on the perimeter and the switching MTM takes a while to learn.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Geno’s teams can win without winning the rebounding battle;

Hmmmm I agree with most of your post but this one is a glass half full statement. As I've posted b4 UConn had a record of 31-6 last year, in those 37 games they were out rebounded 11 times, out of those 11 games they lost six of them, the teams tht out rebounded them were....
NC state. 41-29
UCLA. 44-36
Texas. 32-29
ND. 37-27
SC. 46-37
and Iowa. 37-29
They were out rebounded but won against....
Maryland. 36-35
NC. 43-33
Georgetown. 44-27
Providence. 45-39
and Duke. 43-28
Coincidence?....maybe, but if the team's going to win the BIG game(s) they'll have to control the boards both offensively and defensively. With the addition of Jana, Sarah, and a healthy Aubrey I thk tht there will be a big boost in the rebounding numbers which should equate to more wins which brings more smiles, Likes and less grumbling on the Boneyard. Imho

UConn 63-59 South Carolina (Feb 8, 2021):

• Total Rebounds: 39 vs 52
• FGA: 73 vs 68
• TrueFGA: 76 vs 75 (calculation below);
• Nika replaced Aubrey in the starting lineup after loss to AK; a pertinent context is described here;

Basketball is a game of possessions and game play, at times punctuated by individual game brilliance (Paige: 31 points in game above):

• PTS = 2 x True2PT% x True2FGA + 3 x True3PT% x True3FGA
• True values are box score values adjusted for the missing missed FGA with 2/3 awarded FTs;
• UConn’s True2FGA = 58 + 3 = 61; UConn had 3 missed 2FGA attempts and made 2 out of 6 FTs; UConn’s TrueFGA = 73 + 3 = 76;
• SC’s True2FGA = 59 + 7 = 66; SC had 7 missed 2FGA attempts and made 8 of 14 FTs; SC’s TrueFGA = 68 + 7 =75.

So, while SC enjoyed a 13 rebound differential, UConn’s defense #1 (other than rebounding) blunted the potential FGA differential, with TrueFGA for UConn = 76 vs SC’s 75;

• UConn had 11 steals, forced 21 turnovers and had 8 blocks vs SC’s 3 steals, forced turnovers of 17 and 4 blocks;
• UConn’s true shooting percentages #2 were high enough to beat SC’s true shooting percentages #3 which were low enough because of UConn’s defense;
• UConn also had 8 assists to SC’s 1 which is a nod to the different styles of play and also indicative of the relative strength of the defenses;
• in Geno speak, UConn won because the team was getting good shots, was scoring at a rate (made shots and free throws) better than South Carolina, and the defense was better than South Carolina — enough to blunt their rebounding edge.

#1 Defense is stealing possessions and/or impeding opponent’s efficiency. It includes turnovers, steals, an opponent’s discombobulated offense, forcing the opponent into tough shots, shot-clock violations, offensive fouls/charges, blocks and rebounds.

#2 UConn’s True Shooting Efficiency:

• True2PT% = 0.5 x (63 - 3x2) / (58 + 3) = 0.467
• True3PT% = 2 / 15 = 0.133

#3 South Carolina’s True Shooting Efficiency:

• True2PT% = 0.5 x (59 - 3x1) / (59 + 7) = 0.424
• True3PT% = 1 / 9 = 0.111

===

Another Example: UConn 67-61 Tennessee (Jan 21, 2021)

• Rebounding: 38 vs 42;
• True FGA: (61+9) vs (65+5) — Even;
• UConn True Shooting: True2PT% = 0.5 x (67 - 7x3) / (36 + 9) = 0.511; True3PT% = 7/25 = 0.280;
• TN True Shooting: True2PT% = 0.5 x (61 - 3x7) / (45 + 5) = 0.400; True3PT% = 7/20 = 0.350;
• UConn’s defensive stats (other than rebounds) are slightly better than TN;

The base analytical approach above can be applied to any game.

Now re: last year. UConn 65-83 South Carolina (Feb 11, 2024)

• Rebounding: 37 vs 46
• True FGA: (71+5) vs (71+6) About even;
• UConn True Shooting: True2PT% = 0.5 x (65 - 3x7) / (48 + 5) = 0.415; True3PT% = 7/23 = 0.304;
• SC True Shooting: True2PT% = 0.5 x (83 - 3x7) / (52 + 6) = 0.534; True3PT% = 7/20 = 0.350;
• SC shot much more efficiently and the defense (other than rebounding) was about the same;
• The extra possessions fed SC’s efficient offense.

Without going through all the examples last year:

• Last year’s offense and defense were not at the usual levels that would be enough to overcome rebounding discrepancies;
• We know the culprits: 6-7 players, no running game, no stability for long stretches, no rest, etc.

Having (Jana, Sarah, Ice, Ayanna) vs just Aaliyah and 1/2 of Ice, is sure better. No one is disagreeing with that.

My point was a rebounding edge can be overcome. But only if the offense and defense (other than rebounding) are sufficiently better than the opponent’s. Most years, that is the case for UConn. Last year, is as you know, last year.