I got to thinking about this thread, inquiring who we EXPECT to SURPRISE us. Is that a contradiction or some sort of an oxymoron? After all, you can't be surprised by something you expect. DOH!
# 1! Bingo. By usual standards, what we have is an uninterpretable poll. What does "unexpected" mean anyway? If conventional wisdom is that Kelly will do everything well but not score a lot of points, and she both did everything well and scored a lot, is that more or less surprising that if Heather averaged 4 points a game? And, how does anybody know what people expect anyway? Could it be that this poll exists to establish that baseline, so that after the fact we can see how wrong we were in our responses? That's why quant pros design polls with so many questions they bore you to death. This kind of poll is a lot more fun, because although nobody can really say what the results mean, they're food for thought and talk. Anyway. I think the best term for "EXPECT to SURPRISE" is not oxymoron but paradox. Bertrand Russell had a lot to say about that: When classes are members of themselves. eg surprises that we expect, we are in deep paradox territory.

