Who is most likely to get to the NC game next year?

[VFLfan]

Really? I'm curious why you say that - that UCONN fans have said we can have high expectations but no one y'all else can. In fact, 4 of UCONN's starters next year consist of a sophomore (Nurse), junior (Tuck) and 2 seniors (Jefferson/Stewart). My money's on RS sophomore Butler as the 5th starter... or Gabby Williams.

You have Russell, who was unimpressive as a freshman, had foot surgery as a sophomore, and hasn't contributed a meaningful minute in 2 years as a Tennessee player. In fact, aside from more minutes per game, her freshman stats weren't much better than Liz Sherwood's her 1st and only year at UCONN. Tucker's had it even worse - not playing meaningful minutes in about 3 years now. Cooper has been hot and cold, and while Tennessee fans fantasize she's one of the top 2-3 players in the class, the truth is she's probably more like Massengale than Durr. Oh, and your 3 best players in the NCAA's were Burdick, Massengale, and Graves, 2 of which graduated to go along with Harrison. So you basically lost 3 starters. Oh, and they were #'s 1,2 and 3 in scoring average for the team. Graves was 4th.

Your coming up sophomores were average at best - Nared, Middleton and Dunbar didn't light anything up. I would say easily that Nurse and Williams were both better individually than any of your kids, and I read comments early on by Tenn fans that Nared was a legit top 10 kid, Middleton outplayed every other guard ranked ahead of her over the summer and she might be the best guard in the class, and Dunbar was the best shooter Tenn. fans had seen in many years and would earn serious minutes.

I do get why Tenn fans are enthusiastic. Deshields is the best player you've seen in orange since Parker. But aside from her and Graves, you have solid but unspectacular players. Not a single kid shot over 35% from beyond the arc except for Dunbar who was 37%. You had 2 players who shot over 50% from the floor - Graves and Moore, and Graves was barely over - literally 50.4%. (in comparison UCONN had 6, and 2 of our kids were over 47%.

Graves is really good. Carter is good. Reynolds, Jones and Moore are solid. Dunbar and Middleton are role players. Russell is a question mark, and Deshields is a potential 1st team AA. And of the freshmen, Cooper has a chance to be good, but if she fancies herself a PG, she has a lot to learn about shooting less and passing more, and she won't start next year. Oh, and I don't see Jackson really having any more impact than Middleton did. Role player at best. But honestly, what you have is no better than about 4 or 5 other teams out there (UCONN, Baylor, Notre Dame , and SC) and given the chemistry challenges that will be fun for opposing fans to see, Tenn has way more questions than answers.

Now having said all of that, IMHO they are a top 5 or 6 team to start the season. They will have opportunities to make a statement as they face SC, a team who I really think will be better than Tenn this season. IMHO even UCONN fans who go on and on about how "good" Tenn could be this year are still caught up with the past, and with the HS ranking of kids you have. Preseason I have them at #5 behind UCONN, SC, Baylor, and ND. Not a bad place to be and congrats - they are a legit part of the National discussion for the first time in about 6 or 7 years...

Thanks for your lengthy assessment, Eric. I was only responding to the poster I quoted. I have seen MANY of the UCONN fans praise your incoming freshmen...and rightfully so...as well as temper down expectations of other freshmen because "they're just freshmen." Didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. I was just attempting to point out that all fans get excited by their teams freshmen potential.

 

[asuwish]

Thoughts? I guess it boils down to who the #2 team will be. For me it's a toss up between ND, SC and Baylor with maybe Tennessee or Maryland sneaking in for the top 4... Not sure how much FSU loses to graduation and maybe a few others like OSU or L'ville might make a push...

Don't count out UNC. They have a very good class coming in and the return of McDaniel. L'ville has Durr and Cole (one of the 2 best players on the floor at the Jordan Brand Classic) + 3 other talented freshman, and their 2 leading scorers were freshman. I know people on this board don't think Dukes coach is very good, but this amount of talent could get them very far. Add in the west coast teams like ASU & OSU and it's so wide open.

 

[EricSD]

Thanks for your lengthy assessment, Eric. I was only responding to the poster I quoted. I have seen MANY of the UCONN fans praise your incoming freshmen...and rightfully so...as well as temper down expectations of other freshmen because "they're just freshmen." Didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. I was just attempting to point out that all fans get excited by their teams freshmen potential.

No feathers were ruffled. And I'm sure you, and/or most other Tenn fans would disagree. Then again, that's why they play the games. No one ever wins on paper...

 

[watanabe]

ND, UT, Baylor.. Again? what happened to parity?

 

[Bayareahusky]

The difference is that the high expectations for some team's freshmen, e.g. Tenn & Duke don't seem to come to fruition. Other teams, e.g., UConn and Notre Dame do. That should tend to make the "do" fan bases optimism more realistic, and cause the "don't" fan bases to temper their happy dances pre season.

Yes, and it has so much to do with coaching..... a necessary component in the college game..... Tenn and Duke are in great need of a coaching overhaul, JMO, but as a former coach and viewer of many games past 3 or 4 years.... it sure appears that way.

UC and ND have the fortune of good coaching..... we are blessed yes,.... this is why, again IMHO, why not-so-highly-rated players such as Dolson, Faris, Achonwa and McBride develop as well as they do......

 

[Bayareahusky]

ND, UT, Baylor.. Again? what happened to parity?

Because there is no parity in WCBB. There just isn't.

 

[VFLfan]

No feathers were ruffled. And I'm sure you, and/or most other Tenn fans would disagree. Then again, that's why they play the games. No one ever wins on paper...

I actually don't disagree with some stuff you mentioned. I, for one, think ALL the players need to upgrade their offensive abilities and Warlick needs to improve her offensive coaching. I do think, IMO, that Cooper will be an upgrade from AMass. She already is a better penetrator than AMass ever was...which was a large part of our problem...no one that penetrated the lane and made the short jumper on a consistent basis. And while I do agree that Burdick and AMass stepped up and were 2 of our 3 best players by season's end, they were also two of the most inconsistent players on offense that we had and the majority of LV fans will tell you how they both struggled on defense many games (AMass more so than Burdick). Still, I agree they will be hard to replace. See...some LV fans are practical

 

[Bayareahusky]

I actually don't disagree with some stuff you mentioned. I, for one, think ALL the players need to upgrade their offensive abilities and Warlick needs to improve her offensive coaching. I do think, IMO, that Cooper will be an upgrade from AMass. She already is a better penetrator than AMass ever was...which was a large part of our problem...no one that penetrated the lane and made the short jumper on a consistent basis. And while I do agree that Burdick and AMass stepped up and were 2 of our 3 best players by season's end, they were also two of the most inconsistent players on offense that we had and the majority of LV fans will tell you how they both struggled on defense many games (AMass more so than Burdick). Still, I agree they will be hard to replace. See...some LV fans are practical

VFLfan - Wow - you must know something about Cooper that I do not.... probably you have seen tape of her..... I know nothing of her except her write-ups...... I hope she is an improvement over AM..... I remember how Pat lifted everyone's expectations when she had recruited her..... and I am guessing that LV Nation expected a bit more from her...... still anxious to see if DD will avg an insane number per game and if Mercedes can play without pain.

 

[Henry]

Having lost Jewel Lloyd, I see ND having a tough time getting back to the NC..just my 2 Lincolns.

Muffett is a good coach but without a bonafide star it will be tough for them. In 1995 the UCONN Women had tough players like Jamelle but had stars in Rebecca,Jen and an up and coming Nykesha. In 2005-06 we had Barbara Turner and Ann Strother but they were not reliable big time players those years.

 

[Bigpetunia]

For me, it seems likely that the most likely opponent for UConn in the NC game remains ND. After that, I'd rank a much improved Tenn team next, then SC, then Baylor. ND is not, nor will they be, on UConn's level, but they know how to win....and Lindsey Allen will likely be the bona fide star they now so desperately need.

 

[UConnCat]

For me, it seems likely that the most likely opponent for UConn in the NC game remains ND. After that, I'd rank a much improved Tenn team next, then SC, then Baylor. ND is not, nor will they be, on UConn's level, but they know how to win....and Lindsey Allen will likely be the bona fide star they now so desperately need.

I honestly don't know what to think about Allen. She had star written all over her after the regional games against Stanford and Baylor and then played poorly in the FF games. It will be interesting to see how the absence of Loyd's talent, scoring and athleticism impact Allen.

 

[Bayareahusky]

Muffett is a good coach but without a bonafide star it will be tough for them. In 1995 the UCONN Women had tough players like Jamelle but had stars in Rebecca,Jen and an up and coming Nykesha. In 2005-06 we had Barbara Turner and Ann Strother but they were not reliable big time players those years.

In my mind Turner IS a star..... and capable of shouldering the burden for the Irish..... and Allen is capable of more..... I think the Jewel gap will be filled...... not completely but sufficiently to threaten the Final 4

 

[connboy77]

Tennessee is getting Russel, DeShields, whatever freshman they signed and (Tucker???) next season. This could be a scary team. Russell, DeShields and Tucker did not play this season and were the number 1,2,7 players out of high school..... That is just scary

Yes, but there are still a lot of question marks! Will Diamond play within the team concept? Will Russell once again be the same player she was coming out of high school? Will Cooper be one of the best freshmen in the country? If the answer to these questions is yes then I agree Tennessee could be a very scary team.

 

[BlueDevils]

Based on previous seasons, the number of teams in the 2nd tier, and my gut the 4-5 teams I can realistically see in the national championship game by the end of the season are Uconn, Notre Dame, Baylor, Louisville, and Tennessee. With FSU, Stanford, and South Carolina on the outside looking in.

 

[stwainfan]

Yes, but there are still a lot of question marks! Will Diamond play within the team concept? Will Russell once again be the same player she was coming out of high school? Will Cooper be one of the best freshmen in the country? If the answer to these questions is yes then I agree Tennessee could be a very scary team.

After watching the YouTube video Te'a Cooper go harder. I have no doubt she will do good.

 

[Bayareahusky]

Good I hope for the Lady Vols she is a gem

 

[Kibitzer]

I believe Tiffany Mitchell will come into this next season like a house of fire.

ahem.

house afire

 

[Gus Mahler]

In my mind Turner IS a star..... and capable of shouldering the burden for the Irish..... and Allen is capable of more..... I think the Jewel gap will be filled. not completely but sufficiently to threaten the Final 4

+1

 

[MilfordHusky]

I made the mistake of discounting ND a few years ago. I've learned never to count them out.

On the other hand, just as Tennessee failed to make the Final Four in Nashville, I hope that ND fails to make it to Indianapolis.

 

[tennparker3]

Tennessee will be there. I can feel it. Sorry if my expectations are too high. Holly did a great job with this year's team. She lost 2 starters, including our best player, and managed a 30-6 record with an elite eight appearance. I think she and the program made bigger strides this year than people want to admit. Team's take on their coaches personality and Tennessee fought harder than any Tennessee team I've seen since Parker's last year. Those are good signs for me.

A lot of questions going in but I will offer no excuses by the end of the season if we are not in the same discussion as UConn and ND.

As for eric's assessment of Cooper. Where is the notion that she needs to learn to pass coming from? I've seen her play close to a 100 high school and AAU games and that couldn't be further from the truth. Heck, she was the only guard to attempt to get the ball to other players more times than looking to score in the McDonald's game. She had 9 turnovers that were almost all a result of her trying to get other players involved. She would've had double digit assists if KLS had made half her shots. Not saying she will be an AA her freshman year but I feel that Cooper gets a lot of exaggerated criticisms. She is the best guard in the class IMO and I've thought that since her freshman year of high school, before I could view her with orange shaded glasses.

Mercedes Russell played one season behind Harrison with 2 bad feet. I still have high hopes from her. Especially now that she has been full go since January and reports from workouts are that she is clearly healthy and has "wowed" everyone that has seen her growth in game and physique.

My concern is post depth. Akhator would be a huge get for us.

 

[easttexastrash]

If in the end it comes down to coaching, then I think ND gets there over SC. Baylor and UT are close but still have too many loose parts.

Just out of curiosity, and not a challenge to your opinion, what do you consider Baylor's loose parts? I am always interested in the details when I read a comment such as that.

 

[Bigpetunia]

I honestly don't know what to think about Allen. She had star written all over her after the regional games against Stanford and Baylor and then played poorly in the FF games. It will be interesting to see how the absence of Loyd's talent, scoring and athleticism impact Allen.

Well, Cat, obviously I'm just offering an opinion and don't really know what to think about her either. But, historically, every time a key player for ND departs, our Board is rife with opinions about how badly their program will be affected, and that view never quite pans out. I suspect that with the new reality of not having to play in Jewell's shadow, Lindsey will emerge as a consistent star. I don't love ND, nor do I love Muffett, but she seems to have the ongoing ability and talent to get 'em going....I suspect, and, of course, I'm only speculating, that this will be another instance of that hard-to-deny ability.

 

[Bayareahusky]

Everybody is understandably excited about their team's chances this coming year..... Returning scorers..... the new wave of freshmen coming in.... in some cases ...transfers will make a difference..... Diamond and Natalie for instance......

I do not know if I have a lot who agree with me, but I have long felt the most important position in WCBB is Head Coach..... in many cases the women do not have the coaching background of their young male counterparts..... and for other reasons as well, players at the time they reach college do not have the intricacies of offense and defense and overall skill set down as solidly as they might..... It is up to the coaching staff to mold the players into a cohesive team which is skilled in the fundamentals, can be versatile in playing all aspects of the game well, can play under pressure, etc.....

Having said that, there are far too few quality coaches in WCBB IMHO, compared to the guys..... For whatever reason, athletic departments put up with mediocrity and lukewarm success all too frequently..... schools do not broom their women's coaches, and say "we need a real winner in here"..... Kansas did it I think this year.... and a couple of other notable schools.... but not many

Pat S brought WCBB to a level, and Geno and his coaching team has brought it to the next level..... there is such a gap between UC and the rest of the field now, and I believe it is largely due to the coaching staff at Uconn, not because we get the best players as rival schools and their fan bases say. Don't misunderstand, we have a wonderful roster, but it takes a solid coaching effort to make things happen and bring championship teams to fruition.

Many people ask "is UConn too good?" "is UConn's success too good for WCBB".... I am here to state the opinion that, yes there is a "next tier" ..... Contrary to popular belief that UConn has set the bar too high, I think WCBB can actually be played at a level above what UConn is playing at now. And it is largely dependent not on the great players, but the coaches who assemble, nurture, guide, and - yes - coach these great players.