Who got the easiest region? The view according to Sagarin

[DobbsRover2]

As always after selections, the next day theviews of fans of different top teams range widely about how badly their favorites got screwed over by the committee. Vol and G-c-o-c-k fans in general appear pretty chipper, while at least some of the Irish see a conspiracy to bring them down.

So if you do a simple blunt "add up the places of the teams in the region" by Sagarin (one of many ways to rate the brackets), ignoring the final four seeds as too far out there, which region appears to be the toughest, and which is the easiest?

Because of the way the committee jumbled the teams around, putting teams like Kentucky, California, and Washington in way better spots than their Sags rating would indicate while burying teams like South Florida, Rutgers, and Princeton in far worse seeds than Sags would indicate, the power list for each region jumps back and forth. Overall though, it looks like the Spokane and Greensboro regions have the toughest group of teams, and the Albany and Oklahoma City regions are the easier. Dividing the scores into 4-team chunks with cumulative numbers in bold, and sorting on the first four seeds total, the results are (with higher score being the easier group):

Spokane: 1-4 (30), 5-8 (86) (116), 9-12 (178) (294)
Greensb: 1-4 (38), 5-8 (96) (134), 9-12 (142) (276)
OK City: 1-4 (41), 5-8 (126) (167), 9-12 (149) (316)
Albany: 1-4 (63), 5-8 (85) (148), 9-12 (187) (335)

So the Albany region with KY and Cal in the top 4 has by far the weakest top, a slightly strongest middle group, and then again the weakest back four. Spokane has the toughest top group, a tough middle group, and a weak back group. Oklahoma City is close to Greensboro at the top, but has by far the weakest middle group, and the two regions are rated with the best group at the back.

For the strongest to weakest tandem of 4-5 seeds for the #1 seed teams to be thinking about as a possible Sweet 16 match the combined scores are for MD: (27), for USCar (36), for ND (44), for UConn (56).

For the 8-9 combo for the Round 2 match the scores are: MD: (34), USCar (57), UConn (64), ND (71)

 

[Boxerpups4me]

I see Princeton, FGCU, Witchita St, Ohio State USF and UTC as potential Cinderella teams. This is a tough bracket to pick overall..Could see quite a few upsets. ND and UConn both should have a clear path to the FF4, with only Baylor as a potential road block for ND..Maryland obviously seems to be the team most likely to lose well before the FF4. Heck, I think Princeton would have a good shot at beating them. Tennessee's path looks quite doable on paper, but with possible matchups with UTC and Oregon St, a second round or sweet 16 exit would not surprise me one bit. If Tennessee can manage to win those two matchups, I like their chances much better for a final four berth..South Carolina also looks like a vulnerable one seed. FSU, FGCU, Syracuse, ASU, and Ohio State are all capable of beating USCjr..

 

[DobbsRover2]

Greensboro and Spokane definitely look like they will have some fairly wild action. By Sagarin, UTenn has the best 2nd round match of the #2 seeds as the Vols have a 35 place difference with Chattanooga along with the revenge factor, while it is only 9 places between KY and Dayton, 11 places for Baylor over Northwestern, and 12 places for FSU over FGCU. And of course no #3 seed has it harder then Louisville with its projected second round match up against a USF team at home in Tampa and only 3 places behind the Cards in Sags. Princeton has the most huge plus differential over the team seeded ahead of it, as it is rated #7 and Chattanooga in the 7 seed is rated #40.

Lot of fun to come.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

But I do agree with you that Spokane and Greensboro look like the toughest regions with Greensboro maybe edging it out as the toughest overall region. I also think Greensboro has the most compelling matchup possibilities...Could this be one of the most competitive NCAA women's tournaments ever?? I think so..time will tell!!

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Thinking Frese should lean hard on the "no respect" thing as incentive to her team, which just may surprise a few people.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

Toughest for whom? . . . and to do what?

If we're talking about advancing to the final four, then Dobbs analysis
shows that UConn has the easiest road to the final four. On the other
hand, if we're talking about teams not named UConn, then the teams
with the toughest road are the teams in the Albany regional because
they have to beat UConn to get to the final four.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

Thinking Frese should lean hard on the "no respect" thing as incentive to her team, which just may surprise a few people.

It worked well for her last year, so I agree..Frese is a tough as nails coach and could motivate a brick wall..

 

[DobbsRover2]

Toughest for whom? . . . and to do what?

If we're talking about advancing to the final four, then Dobbs analysis
shows that UConn has the easiest road to the final four. On the other
hand, if we're talking about teams not named UConn, then the teams
with the toughest road are the teams in the Albany regional because
they have to beat UConn to get to the final four.

Oh yeah, any team in UConn's bracket will have the toughest time advancing to the FF, but that does not change the fact that overall the grouping of teams in one or two regions is stronger than the others, and that they will be divvying up that 100% chance of making it to the FF into many more pieces.

 

[triaddukefan]

But I do agree with you that Spokane and Greensboro look like the toughest regions with Greensboro maybe edging it out as the toughest overall region. I also think Greensboro has the most compelling matchup possibilities...Could this be one of the most competitive NCAA women's tournaments ever?? I think so..time will tell!!

A matchup in the sweet 16 between Big Carolina (UNC) and Little Carolina (Carolina Jr) in Greensboro ????

 

[Boxerpups4me]

A matchup in the sweet 16 between Big Carolina (UNC) and Little Carolina (Carolina Jr) in Greensboro ????

I'm not so sure UNC will beat Ohio St...So, an Ohio St and South Carolina matchup would be interesting. Syracuse had South Carolina down 10 before Carolina rallied for the win. So a Syracuse-USCjr rematch would also be a very interesting matchup to me. On the bottom part of that Greensboro bracket, Florida Gulf Coast and FSU would be fun to watch..There's also ASU who is playing well..

 

[triaddukefan]

I'm not so sure UNC will beat Ohio St...So, an Ohio St and South Carolina matchup would be interesting. Syracuse had South Carolina down 10 before Carolina rallied for the win. So a Syracuse-USCjr rematch would also be a very interesting matchup to me. On the bottom part of that Greensboro bracket, Florida Gulf Coast and FSU would be fun to watch..There's also ASU who is playing well..

Im not sure that Ohio State will beat James Madison. From a personal standpoint Im hoping for a Big vs Little Carolina matchup...... contrasting styles on the floor...... some interesting interaction in the stands (possibly) Regardless of the matchup..... I'll be there.... even if its James Madison vs Syracuse.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

Im not sure that Ohio State will beat James Madison. From a personal standpoint Im hoping for a Big vs Little Carolina matchup. contrasting styles on the floor. some interesting interaction in the stands (possibly) Regardless of the matchup..... I'll be there.... even if its James Madison vs Syracuse.

You could be right about James Madison. Impressive record, and they came back and played Maryland tough..Although I love watching Kelsey Mitchell play. She is def a game changer and only a freshman!!

Honestly, going back to the Spokane regional, I can see your Duke team making a run at a regional final there. Duke's a head scratching kinda team. They can play really well one game, then the next play really bad. They do have some potential favorable matchups..I might even put them as a surprise final four team in one of my brackets!!

 

[UcMiami]

This is actually what the S curve should produce in terms strength of the 'others' in each bracket for #1 seeds. And in general even with wildly different seedings between Sags and the committee, the bracket strengths work out pretty well.
There are always going to be some surprises, but not sure people can complain that much over the brackets as a whole. Individual teams ... yes, but that is another matter.

 

[Striper69]

My take on it: If you don't have the swagger then you probably will lose.


Swaggers not a good thing early in the season as UCONN found out.


Princeton's got swagger and THEY'VE EARNED IT.

They can say "Hey, we're 30-0. If you can beat us..."Come on with it"!

 

[UcMiami]

Any team that shoots and makes a high percentage of threes can be a very scary proposition in a single elimination tournament. Princeton, FGCU as lower seeds would scare a lot of teams because of that.

 

[Deadrody]

My take on it: If you don't have the swagger then you probably will lose.

Swaggers not a good thing early in the season as UCONN found out.

Not sure I see how either 1) Uconn was displaying any kind of swagger in November, least of all to the point it would be false bravado, or whatever it is you are implying, or 2) that "swagger" was the problem for UConn against Stanford. The problems were 1) youth and inexperience integrating the freshmen, and how the new makeup of the team fit together, and 2) defending the Stanford pick and roll offense letting their guards torch the defense time and again.

 

[Teacherdeb]

Not sure I see how either 1) Uconn was displaying any kind of swagger in November, least of all to the point it would be false bravado, or whatever it is you are implying, or 2) that "swagger" was the problem for UConn against Stanford. The problems were 1) youth and inexperience integrating the freshmen, and how the new makeup of the team fit together, and 2) defending the Stanford pick and roll offense letting their guards torch the defense time and again.

I agree- " swagger" is one of those words that can have either a positive or negative connotation- when it implies confidence based on outcomes, fine, but Coach Auriemma recruits players that don't have swagger in the negative sense. In the positive sense, there is, of course, the notable exception, Diana Taurasi. (See punching the Orange stanchion at TN). Meanwhile I agree with your summation of why we lost to Stanford- never through over-confidence.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Probably two attitudes that can help you in the Tourney (as opposed to November when you are developing your team and swaggering too much can make you tipsy dumb): "swagger" (also known as extreme confidence in being really good) and "tough grit" (for the chippy underdog who thinks they can beat anyone). Swaggering too much in the Tourney is obviously bad if you don't perform your ultimate objective of just taking care of business. Maybe that hit Baylor in 2013 when they refused to come out of the zone until too late and were maybe overconfident of being able to dominate play. Being tough and gritty is always good, but you also have to be smart and not expend all your grit in the first half and betoo worn down to fight well in the second half.