Who can pose a threat to UCONN next season?

[meyers7]

Took most of the words out of my mouth. Or off my keyboard, anyway.

I'm psycho like that sometimes.

I think ND and SC are both a year away from their peak.

The only problem with that is at that point they will be facing Stewart and Jefferson as Seniors, and Tuck as a Junior. That's quite a 3 headed monster to deal with, even if no one else develops into anything other than role players. (and I figure 1 or 2 of Chong, Williams, Nurse, Ekmark, Edwards, Collier, Boykin, ?Samuelson?, ?Durr?, ?Butler/Brown? will develop into or be more than a role player)

Future is so bright, I gotta wear shades.

 

[Zorro]

This past season, UConn had five players who at least reasonable arguments could be made for as the best at their positions in wcbb (some would disagree, of course, and especially KML went through a notoriously bad patch but by the end of the season was her old deadly self). This coming season, we will have MoJet, STewie and KML who, imho at least, will be the best at their positions, and Kiah, who will certainly be in the top handful at hers. That would be enough to beat almost all teams in wcbb with, say, Icebear playing the two. However, both BB and Saniya have the potential to be outstanding in their own rights. And both Tuck and whichever of BB and Saniya ends up coming off the bench will be outstanding subs. If one of the four frosh develops into Supergirl, that will be great, but really not necessary.

The only way the Huskies lose to anybody next season, is serious injury, statistically highly improbable cold shoting, and/or an almost perfect game from someone like ND or SCar. Otherwise, it is another table run.

 

[Orangutan]

The only problem with that is at that point they will be facing Stewart and Jefferson as Seniors, and Tuck as a Junior. That's quite a 3 headed monster to deal with, even if no one else develops into anything other than role players. (and I figure 1 or 2 of Chong, Williams, Nurse, Ekmark, Edwards, Collier, Boykin, ?Samuelson?, ?Durr?, ?Butler/Brown? will develop into or be more than a role player)

Future is so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Yeah, Stewart and Jefferson as seniors...not easy to beat. I do expect ND to have a better chance to beat UConn in 15-16 than in 14-15. But better chance does not necessarily equal good chance.

Point to note...I would have rather had Brianna Turner--at her current skill level--guarding Breanna Stewart than anybody that ND had available this year. Not that it would have worked out terribly well. Turner does have the length and athleticism to match up with Stewart physically, though.

 

[choochoo]

I do not think one of you has mentioned Baylor. They played us closer than any other team last season IIRC and were basically a bunch of freshmen and O Sims. Well all those freshmen are sophomores and they have a great incoming class. Beware of Baylor, beware of the Mulkey!

 

[Suebird10fan]

Here's the thing... It's not so much a case of being "better" than last year, but EVERY time we lose a great player or two, the comments about "how can we replace them" echo loud and clear on the BY. BUT... just my $.02... UCONN will be different next year (I know - DUH), but the increased depth gives them many more options.

I think the reason many are so optimistic, myself included, is that while we lose Stef's incredible passing and ability to control and direct the offense from the top of the key, Kiah is a more athletic and superior defender (no insult meant to Stef), and UCONN will need to run offense slightly differently which Geno already knows and will work on implementing. I've said this before regarding Bria, and I mean no disrespect to her, but replacing what she brings will be easier (again IMHO) than what Stef brought. I'm NOT talking about Bria's leadership and heart - BOTH of those kids were tremendous players, people, AND teammates, which is why Geno was so emotional after their last game was over. But Bria's outside shooting was only 5th best on the team, and of course while her leadership can't be replaced, her shooting, ball handling and scoring certainly can.

UCONN basically gets a class of 5. The 4 freshmen and hopefully a healthy Morgan Tuck back. I think we already know Kiah will be starting at the 5. Stewie, Jo Jett and KML are all givens as well. IMHO the other starting guard spot will be up for grabs between Nurse, Williams, Banks and Chong. Keep in mind a healthy Williams was previously considered one of the best 3 players in the class.

So why will UCONN possibly be even better? Morgan Tuck is terrific. IF she's healthy, watch out. Stewie, Mo, and KML are all a year older. KML will be 100% at the start of the season and won't have injuries and illnesses causing her to have up and down health issues. Those 3 are literally the best at their position in the entire nation. That's ridiculous. I believe Kiah will be one of top 5 centers in the nation, and defensively she might be top 2. The 5th starting spot is up for grabs.

Oh, and our bench. Crazy good. Let's assume that Nurse starts (I believe she's the best all around and with her Canadian National Team experience will win the starting spot, but I'm really rooting for Banks or Chong to be that 5th starter). That means our bench consists of Tuck, Chong, Banks, Williams, Edwards and Ekmark. Yes we will be a little thin in the post. But when you consider what ND lost, and I still think they will be the #2 team this year, I think our gap between us and evryone else could be even larger than it was last year. SC and Tennessee were way over rated, based on how easily they bowed out of the NCAA's, and what both teams add isn't close to what UCONN add (well, SC is much closer than Tenn based on their incoming freshmen)...

Awesome post Eric. You completely nailed it. I wish everyone expecting a dropoff would read this three times.

 

[Geno-ista]

You don't replace Kelly Faris very easily, if at all...and UConn missed her so much the Huskies went 40-0 in the ensuing season.
Oh, BTW, Moriah Jefferson will also probably be better next season too. There's so much improvement going on that the losses of Stef and Bria, which are significant, are surmountable.

Kelly Farris was Epic in every way. But I would think that there isn't anyone on this board that can compare losing Kelly to losing Steph and Bria! IMO we were much more dominant coming into last season than going into next season. Last yr we were 15-20 pts better than the good teams, this year 10-15 Pts better. I think we could have some close calls on the road- with our new conference and extra traveling. A&M and BYU played us very very tough last yr in Nebraska. If that young tall center at A&M comes along and makes the soph leap- they could be trouble next year. I think we are the favorite for sure. I am not even sure we all realize how great Hartley was on that floor, even during any of her off shooting days. Re KML--- she was our most complete and clutch player for the entire 6 game Tmt. She was like Magic Johnson with dishes and passes in the paint. What a Tmt it was for her!!!!

 

[Buzzyboy]

I am going to go out on a limb and say.... themselves... over confidence.... I hope they never have it happen... but when you win all the time you expect to win.. and then bad things could happen

Well, I'm inclined to think that the Huskies have expected to win since probably 2001 and they've done pretty well considering. I don't think their attitude has hindered their performance in any way but that's just my opinion. Confidence is something that I think is essential to perform and something that Geno strives to insure the team has.

 

[Aluminny69]

Doesn't Massengale come back for Tenn? Not sure if that's a plus or a minus....

 

[hoophuskee]

The word "threat" is an odd word to use. So instead I chose to define this by who is best chance to be 2nd best. I think it comes down to DD. I'll go with Tennessee IF they get DD. I've read they are the favorite on here. If DD goes to ND or USC then they are an extreme, extreme threat. Now if DD came to UCONN . . .
it would probably be like watching the greatest wcbb team that ever played.

Next team I'd go with is ND assuming no DD. I think they'll be better by season's end than USC.

 

[alexrgct]

Of course, the biggest loss after a championship season? 2002, when NPOY Sue Bird, Swin Cash, Asjha Jones, and Tamika Williams all graduated. You can't overstate how monstrous a loss that was and how impossible to replace those four young women were. Despite this, UConn won two more NCs immediately following the 2002 season.

There is historical precedent. And history will repeat itself.

 

[EricSD]

The word "threat" is an odd word to use. So instead I chose to define this by who is best chance to be 2nd best. I think it comes down to DD. I'll go with Tennessee IF they get DD. I've read they are the favorite on here. If DD goes to ND or USC then they are an extreme, extreme threat. Now if DD came to UCONN . . .
it would probably be like watching the greatest wcbb team that ever played.

Next team I'd go with is ND assuming no DD. I think they'll be better by season's end than USC.

Next year Diamond won't be eligible to play no matter what school she chooses.

 

[hoophuskee]

Next year Diamond won't be eligible to play no matter what school she chooses.

Okay. Then my vote is ND.

 

[meyers7]

Doesn't Massengale come back for Tenn? Not sure if that's a plus or a minus....

They may get Tucker back also. She was a top 5-10 player coming out of HS. If she does come back AND the year off didn't hurt her, she may be able to help them.

 

[JRRRJ]

Oh, and our bench. Crazy good. Let's assume that Nurse starts (I believe she's the best all around and with her Canadian National Team experience will win the starting spot, but I'm really rooting for Banks or Chong to be that 5th starter). That means our bench consists of Tuck, Chong, Banks, Williams, Edwards and Ekmark. Yes we will be a little thin in the post. But when you consider what ND lost, and I still think they will be the #2 team this year, I think our gap between us and evryone else could be even larger than it was last year. SC and Tennessee were way over rated, based on how easily they bowed out of the NCAA's, and what both teams add isn't close to what UCONN add (well, SC is much closer than Tenn based on their incoming freshmen)...

My fantasy solution to this "problem" is that our 34-inch leaper ends up reminding us of how unbelievably well undersized Barbara Turner filled a post position when called on to do so.

 

[Bayareahusky]

I would put only ND there and only because of their reputation..... and MM's ability to develop her talent and games plans as well.

You know what is scary...... after next year, where we will not face too much competition, barring major injury issues, the year after that..... all of WCBB will be trying feverishly to turn off the UConn tap, prevent another record unbeaten streak, and prevent Morgan, Moriah and Breanna from going 4 in a row......

Go Huskies!!

 

[bballnut90]

Doesn't Massengale come back for Tenn? Not sure if that's a plus or a minus....

13 points, 6 assists, a good teammate....not sure why one would question her return being a negative influence on Tennessee.

 

[bballnut90]

I do not think one of you has mentioned Baylor. They played us closer than any other team last season IIRC and were basically a bunch of freshmen and O Sims. Well all those freshmen are sophomores and they have a great incoming class. Beware of Baylor, beware of the Mulkey!

Sims was also the top scorer in the nation and the #2 overall pick in the WNBA draft. Baylor had a nice crop of freshmen, but I don't see them replacing Sims next year. And Baylor doesn't have a player coming in ranked in the top 40 next year. They definitely could surprise us, but between points and assists, Sims was responsible for nearly 40-50% of Baylor's points last year. That's a lot of production lost. I know people will say that Baylor lost everyone but Sims the year before, but they had Sims returning. Nina Davis, while a very good player, is not going to match the production left behind by Odyssey Sims.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Going into next season one thing is clear: UCONN looks far superior to everyone else in the nation. With the exception being 2000-01, whenever Geno has had significantly more talent than anyone else in the nation, UCONN has rolled through undefeated season after undefeated season. Even with losing 2 All-Americans, UCONN still has the top player in the nation, and arguably the 2nd best in the nation (Stewart/Loyd/KML are the only returning players who have made the 1st or 2nd AP All America team.) Add in UCONN's best point guard since Sue Bird, Kiah Stokes, a slew of freshmen/Banks/Tuck and you have a very heavy favorite for next season

That said, there are some teams that should be very good next year. I personally do not think anyone will be able to compete with UCONN next season, but if there is a team, my guess is it'd be one of the following:

Notre Dame-they have a lot of talent coming back. Loyd is sensation, Reimer will make big strides in the post, Turner is top recruit, and Mabrey/Cable are strong contributors. Additionally, despite how this board feels about her, McGraw is one of the best coaches in the nation. Notre Dame will be a good team again.

South Carolina-they'll have an incredibly deep and imposing front line. The question is, can they play consistent defense, can they get perimeter production and can they make the leap from being a Sweet 16 caliber team to being a championship caliber one? With all of their talent, I'd guess they are one year away from being a true title contender but I wouldn't count them out.

Tennessee-I think losing Simmons could do wonders for Tennessee. I'd look for improved ball movement and production in the post and more balanced scoring. Talent hasn't been the issue at Tennessee, it has been their ability to run an offense and develop on court chemistry. Not sure if either of these issues will be fixed, but I think without Simmons both should improve. Side note--this is nothing against Simmons as a person or personality wise, she seems very well liked by her teammates and is a likable person)

All of this is assuming that Notre Dame/Tennessee/USC develops great team chemistry in addition to their talent. Outside of those 3 teams, I just don't see anyone else having the talent to stay close with UCONN. There are some nice teams (Texas A&M, Texas, Duke, North Carolina, etc) but I don't think these teams have the talent or depth to compete even if they have great chemistry and do overperform. All of this said, I still don't see anyone who can give UCONN a good fight so my vote is no one.

bballnut90- - Just playing Devil's Advocate here,
NOTRE DAME: Just lost 2 of their best 3 players, Loyd is only proven player on roster, will be competitive but not outstanding!
SOUTH CAROLINA: Potentially a power but everyone has potential! They have to prove they can do what only UCONN has proven, in DIVISION I, they sell out on defense for the full 40 minutes, no matter what the score is! They haven't shown it yet!
TENNESSEE: They are coached by Holly Warlick, enough said! NO HOPE!!!!!

 

[bballnut90]

bballnut90- - Just playing Devil's Advocate here,
NOTRE DAME: Just lost 2 of their best 3 players, Loyd is only proven player on roster, will be competitive but not outstanding!
SOUTH CAROLINA: Potentially a power but everyone has potential! They have to prove they can do what only UCONN has proven, in DIVISION I, they sell out on defense for the full 40 minutes, no matter what the score is! They haven't shown it yet!
TENNESSEE: They are coached by Holly Warlick, enough said! NO HOPE!!!!!

Notre Dame also has Lindsey Allen returning who started at point guard every game during a 37-1 season. She had a 150:67 A/TO ratio, defends well, and can score when needed. I'd say that's a proven player. Notre Dame also has one of the best shooters in the nation coming back in Michaela Mabrey (8.6 ppg off the bench) and will have 2 other players who were top 5 recruits in Taya Reimer and Brianna Turner.

South Carolina hasn't proven they are a Final Four caliber team yet, but they'll be one of the most talented teams in the nation next year. Bringing in Wilson and White will give USC a different look, and many expect Coates to emerge as one of the nation's premiere centers next season.

In most opinions (especially those of Connecticut fans), Warlick did not do a great coaching job this year for Tennessee. However, people are quick to overlook that she was a finalist for National Coach of the Year in 2012-13 and led Tennessee to a much more successful season than most observers predicted. She has not proven that she can develop a strong offense, nor has Tennessee proven they can play with the best of the best, but she only has 2 years under her belt as head coach. Pat Summitt took 13 years to win her first title, Geno took 10, McGraw needed 19, and Tara Vanderveer didn't win her 1st title until her 12 year of coaching. I wouldn't count out Warlick yet.

 

[Icebear]

Nor would I count on her. One thing she has is the distinct advantage of the TN label. The talent is there but they still play from behind too often and can lose the big game.