You have to play the games, and "it" happens. I don't think we will ever be awful collectively, we're too deep for that. But some other team can play lights out for 40 minutes and beat us. That's the beauty of a one and done tournament.
I will say this. I don't think there's a team out there that wants to see us in the tournament. I'm saying that in the sense that nobody believes they match up well against us and think they can beat us more often than not. A few delusional fans may think so, but coaching staffs and intelligent fans would choose another path if they could.
Teams I fear the most would be;
Marquette, a talented division rival that knows us and won't fear us
Houston an athletic team with moxie and defense
I'd love to see
Purdue, just think we match up well and have tournament moxie which they lack
Tennessee is coached by Barnes who's simply not national championship caliber
Dook & UK, our lucky charms who are both name only at this point