Where Will UConn's 2022 Graduates Go in WNBA Draft?

[JoePgh]

To many posters seem to have little idea as to how hard it is to make a WNBA roster. Or, for that matter, how many really good players there are throughout the NCAA that they have never even seen. Very few roster spots are avalable each year and it requires a lot of luck to end up on a team where a player even has a shot to make a roster. Adding to that is the increased level of talent available every year. All and all, WNBA coaches are very conservative and tend to go with veterans especially since their is such a short pre season available to evaluate how well the newbees are adapting to the league.

I think I disagree with every statement in this entire post.

It is rare for a #1 draft choice not to make the team that selected her -- can you provide any recent examples where a team cut its #1 draft choice in training camp? Also, about a third to a half of the second round draft choices make their teams -- that includes players like Crystal Dangerfield, Jessica Shepherd, Tiffany Hayes, and Allie Quigley. The Sun's last two choices in the second round, Kaila Charles of Maryland and Dijonae Carrington of Stanford via Baylor, have both made the team and have been solid contributors. Natisha Heideman was (as I recall) a 3rd round draft choice three years ago, and she is now the Sun's third guard and plays about 20 minutes per game.

As to the statement that "WNBA coaches are very conservative and tend to go with veterans ...", I think the opposite is more likely to be true. I would say that if a rookie and a veteran bench player show roughly equal current productivity, the coach will select the younger player because: (a) she is cheaper, which is a big deal with the salary cap; (b) she will be present for the entire training camp rather than finishing her season in Europe or Asia; and (c) she is likely to have a higher ceiling than the veteran, who has already (in most cases) maxed out her talent.

I think most coaches believe that they have a better chance of spotting hidden talent in the draft (that perhaps needs some development and coaching) than in finding veteran bench players who still have significant room to improve.

 

[JoePgh]

Just don’t see Liv in WNBA. Big girls will eat her up. Mya Hollingshed will go before her.

This seems to be based on the very outdated premise that Liv is still a beanpole and a relative weakling compared to most pro centers. There may have been some truth in that when she was a freshman, but if you look at her now, you can see that her physique is very developed. Physical strength is not her problem. She proved that in the NCAA tournament by rebounding successfully against very good opponents, including Nalyssa Smith of Baylor in the Elite Eight game.

Liv does have a problem with scoring, and while that is certainly a BIG issue, it is probably a solvable one, if not in her senior year of college then in her first year or two in the W. She does not have any problem with rebounding (at both ends), passing, leaping, or running the floor. If she were also a good scorer, she would be a lottery pick.

To see what level of competition she has to match to find a place in the WNBA as a backup center, I checked box scores for 2021 to see who the backup center is on all 12 teams in the league. Here are the results:

Ct Sun: Beatrice Mompremier (behind Jonquel Jones)
Chi Sky: Azura Stevens / Stef Dolson (behind Astou Ndour)
LV Aces: Kiah Stokes (behind Liz Cambage)
Min Lynx: Natalie Achonwa (behind Sylvia Fowles)
Dal Wings: Charli Collier (behind Kaila Thornton)
Phx Mercury: Kia Vaughan (behind Brittney Griner)
Wash Mystics: Theresa Plaisance (behind Hines-Allen)
Atl Dream: Tiana Hawkins (behind Elizabeth Williams)
Ind Fever: Jantel Lavender (behind Tieara McGowan)
LA Sparks: Lauren Cox (behind Amanda Zahui-B)
Seattle Storm: Ezi Magbegor (behind Mercedes Russell)
NY Liberty: Kiley Shook (behind Natasha Howard)

Do you really think that Liv is not competitive with most of the players on this list of backup centers? I think she is, and that she has a higher ceiling than most of them.

 

[baggerbob]

This seems to be based on the very outdated premise that Liv is still a beanpole and a relative weakling compared to most pro centers. There may have been some truth in that when she was a freshman, but if you look at her now, you can see that her physique is very developed. Physical strength is not her problem. She proved that in the NCAA tournament by rebounding successfully against very good opponents, including Nalyssa Smith of Baylor in the Elite Eight game.

Liv does have a problem with scoring, and while that is certainly a BIG issue, it is probably a solvable one, if not in her senior year of college then in her first year or two in the W. She does not have any problem with rebounding (at both ends), passing, leaping, or running the floor. If she were also a good scorer, she would be a lottery pick.

To see what level of competition she has to match to find a place in the WNBA as a backup center, I checked box scores for 2021 to see who the backup center is on all 12 teams in the league. Here are the results:

Ct Sun: Beatrice Mompremier (behind Jonquel Jones)
Chi Sky: Azura Stevens / Stef Dolson (behind Astou Ndour)
LV Aces: Kiah Stokes (behind Liz Cambage)
Min Lynx: Natalie Achonwa (behind Sylvia Fowles)
Dal Wings: Charli Collier (behind Kaila Thornton)
Phx Mercury: Kia Vaughan (behind Brittney Griner)
Wash Mystics: Theresa Plaisance (behind Hines-Allen)
Atl Dream: Tiana Hawkins (behind Elizabeth Williams)
Ind Fever: Jantel Lavender (behind Tieara McGowan)
LA Sparks: Lauren Cox (behind Amanda Zahui-B)
Seattle Storm: Ezi Magbegor (behind Mercedes Russell)
NY Liberty: Kiley Shook (behind Natasha Howard)

Do you really think that Liv is not competitive with most of the players on this list of backup centers? I think she is, and that she has a higher ceiling than most of them.

I said before would like her on Seattle, which would allow Ezi to move, and let Stewie play more 3. Playing Ezi always at the 5 is a waste of her talent.

 

[Purchase1]

I think Liv’s passing prowess alone makes her a viable player in the W. Not a lot of bigs can do simple things like passing and screening and playing solid D. That’s her role at the next level I like her odds to make a roster and have at minimum a Kiah Stokes type of career.

 

[Rb335]

I have a weird feeling that CW will be one of those players that’s more effective in the W than in college. She was really good at creating her own shot as a freshman, and I think that innate ability will translate to the W where there’s a higher emphasis on isolation plays. She’s also a strong guard that still has quickness, which should translate well. If she can become a routine 38-40% shooter from the perimeter, she will stick for a long time. The W oddly doesn’t have a ton of players shooting much higher percentages.

 

[pvdoggy]

Agree with the post above, Liv is a very good passer.

 

[Alydar]

I think I disagree with every statement in this entire post.

It is rare for a #1 draft choice not to make the team that selected her -- can you provide any recent examples where a team cut its #1 draft choice in training camp? Also, about a third to a half of the second round draft choices make their teams -- that includes players like Crystal Dangerfield, Jessica Shepherd, Tiffany Hayes, and Allie Quigley. The Sun's last two choices in the second round, Kaila Charles of Maryland and Dijonae Carrington of Stanford via Baylor, have both made the team and have been solid contributors. Natisha Heideman was (as I recall) a 3rd round draft choice three years ago, and she is now the Sun's third guard and plays about 20 minutes per game.

As to the statement that "WNBA coaches are very conservative and tend to go with veterans ...", I think the opposite is more likely to be true. I would say that if a rookie and a veteran bench player show roughly equal current productivity, the coach will select the younger player because: (a) she is cheaper, which is a big deal with the salary cap; (b) she will be present for the entire training camp rather than finishing her season in Europe or Asia; and (c) she is likely to have a higher ceiling than the veteran, who has already (in most cases) maxed out her talent.

I think most coaches believe that they have a better chance of spotting hidden talent in the draft (that perhaps needs some development and coaching) than in finding veteran bench players who still have significant room to improve.

In addition, UConn grads seem to be better prepared for the WNBA than others. Every year I read at least one WNBA coach saying how well UConn players understand what an intense practice involves. They are also better tuned to the speed of play that they encounter in the W.
When Mercedes Russell was entering her senior season a lot of Vol fans were posting the same comments as UConn fans are posting about ONO. Not physical enough, unreliable midrange shot, etc. She played her best season by far as a senior. Even so, it took Russell a few seasons before she started to be a factor in the W. My guess is that rising seniors with pro ambitions wake up to the fact that they need to earn a living soon and that they are auditioning for jobs.

All 3 UConn seniors (and maybe 4) will be 1st round picks.

 

[PvP]

This probably won't go over well, but I don't think any of the seniors mentioned have enhanced their draft positions compared to their high school rankings. All three have under-performed those rankings. They all could play in the league, but I don't see a starter among them, and I believe Liv may be less than 50/50 to stick in the league.

Christyn in the WNBA will probably be a one position player. A shooting guard who can create some, but has a pure shooting touch that is quite mediocre by WNBA shooting guard standards. She can hold her own defensively, but passing and rebounding are not strengths either.

Evina in some ways may have more value to a WNBA team than Christyn. She may not have as much of Christyn's ability to create her own shot, but is a far superior passer and rebounder. Those two traits makes her a swiss army knife capable of playing PG and SF in addition to SG. A versatile three position player can often be a good role player, but of course there will be some concern over her knee.

Liv I think I have seen as low as #32 in one mock draft. She puts up good numbers against much smaller competition, but needs to show things against WNBA sized C's and PF's that thus far she has not. A WNBA center needs to be able to score and rebound inside thru contact. Liv doesn't do well against physical bigs at all. So if she can't play C at least at WNBA level, is certainly not a stretch 4, or a post up 4 either for that matter, how does she find a role? She could probably defend 4's pretty well as long as they were not wide body post up types, but I just don't see her having success in the league.

All three are good but not great college players that by Uconn's very high standards are pretty middle of the pack. The potential greatness among current players is the the freshmen and sophomore classes IMO.

People like Fowles, Griner, Tina Charles and so many more W centers would simply eat ONO's lunch! I think any team that drafts her would be wasting a pick and I believe most teams recognize that.

 

[Purchase1]

People like Fowles, Griner, Tina Charles and so many more W centers would simply eat ONO's lunch! I think any team that drafts her would be wasting a pick and I believe most teams recognize that.

There are a bunch of players in the league who cannot guard the aforementioned players so your point is kind of null nobody coming fresh out of college is going to challenge an MVP caliber player. What the W does allow is more time to focus solely on playing basketball and less of everything else. So TO ME ONO is not a waste of a pick she has the fundamental game down it’s just putting it to work. Also I may add ONO was on a USA roster with the players you mentioned and held her own if I do recall correctly. The constant bashing of a player on this board is becoming tiresome and toxic. At the end of the day we’re just spectators you nor I is out there playing the games!

 

[eebmg]

I think to survive in the WNBA, she needs to have some type of hook shot (Stewie / Tina) and/or a face up game where she can drive from the key (Wilson) . I think her shooting form is good enough for a center/wing to 18 feet and her post and back door passing is good enough.

But it is so hard to survive as a post in the WNBA. Some of the best recent college posts cant see the floor (Cox Gustafson) but I see Azure seems to be getting a foothold while Shook is a mainstay on the Liberty. Alot depends on coaching and system.

 

[Kaizen]

What skill level is she at? What skill does she have that other post players dont possess?

You will probably be correct in that she goes higher thanks expect. But. next years draft is looking to be as good as this year's draft. Not very good.

Liv's UConn 2020-2021 stats: 25.9 mins, 12 pts. 7.8 rebs, 2.9 asts, 60% FT. Is this good enough?

Olivia Nelson-Ododa NCAA Player Page

Traditional and Advanced Statistics, Ranks, Percentiles, Game Logs, and more from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

 

[Reypl21]

In addition, UConn grads seem to be better prepared for the WNBA than others. Every year I read at least one WNBA coach saying how well UConn players understand what an intense practice involves. They are also better tuned to the speed of play that they encounter in the W.
When Mercedes Russell was entering her senior season a lot of Vol fans were posting the same comments as UConn fans are posting about ONO. Not physical enough, unreliable midrange shot, etc. She played her best season by far as a senior. Even so, it took Russell a few seasons before she started to be a factor in the W. My guess is that rising seniors with pro ambitions wake up to the fact that they need to earn a living soon and that they are auditioning for jobs.

All 3 UConn seniors (and maybe 4) will be 1st round picks.

CW is a guaranteed 1st round pick, IMO. Especially if she has a great season. Westbrook and ONO

Liv's UConn 2020-2021 stats: 25.9 mins, 12 pts. 7.8 rebs, 2.9 asts, 60% FT. Is this good enough?

Olivia Nelson-Ododa NCAA Player Page

Traditional and Advanced Statistics, Ranks, Percentiles, Game Logs, and more from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

I would say no, but I'm not a GM.

 

[MilfordHusky]

People like Fowles, Griner, Tina Charles and so many more W centers would simply eat ONO's lunch! I think any team that drafts her would be wasting a pick and I believe most teams recognize that.

Those are 3 1st-ballot Naismith HOF players. That's an unfair comparison.

 

[JoePgh]

People like Fowles, Griner, Tina Charles and so many more W centers would simply eat ONO's lunch! I think any team that drafts her would be wasting a pick and I believe most teams recognize that.

Please see my Post #32 in this thread for a list of the backup centers currently on each WNBA team. That is the position that Liv would realistically be drafted for. Does Liv look out of place to you on that underwhelmingly talented list? I think she fits right into that list, and has more upside than most of them.

 

[baggerbob]

Please see my Post #32 in this thread for a list of the backup centers currently on each WNBA team. That is the position that Liv would realistically be drafted for. Does Liv look out of place to you on that underwhelmingly talented list? I think she fits right into that list, and has more upside than most of them.

Seattle would be a great fit, she passes the ball well, their
offense is much like Uconn's. She can run the floor, and has more range the Russell. Would be a good backup and could grow into a starter.
Seattle can go to a bigger lineup with Stewie at the 3. The best teams seem to be going that way. Connecticut, Las Vegas, Washington, Minnesota.

 

[oldhusky]

CW is a guaranteed 1st round pick, IMO. Especially if she has a great season. Westbrook and ONO

I would say no, but I'm not a GM.

The problem with Liv is how her stats are produced. Compared to her college competition she is an effective inside scorer statistically against weak and smaller competition that is nothing like she will face in the WNBA. In fact Geno milks the advantage she has against lessor opponents very effectively. Then against bigger more talented and more physical players she becomes a non factor offensively.

More head to head battles with Dorka might help some, but she needs to have big games, particularly offensively scoring down low against future WNBA players like Boston or Brink to improve her stock with scouts. So far she has been very unimpressive against top competition, has trouble finishing at point blank range when in a crowd of bigs, and has generally been unable to bang with wide bodies down low.

She has been a very good college center. A lot of very good college players don't really have enough WNBA level skills or size to project as a good pro. Uconn needed Liv very badly since they lost out on a couple of big targets a few years ago. She was the only true big for a while, and we would have had a major challenge if she didn't come here when we were so short of bigs. She filled a need pretty well, but that doesn't mean she is All American material, will make the wall as a Husky of Honor, or make it in the WNBA.

 

[Byukiok808]

Some others have said this but I think it depends on what team ONO ends up being drafted by. She has a lot of great skills that could be utilized by the right team. Some have used Mercedes Russell as an example. I thought she’d be out of the W by her second year but Seattle took her after she got waived and she has become a great reserve/starter for the Storm. She has good height, is a strong passer and facilitator in the post, and could be a strong defender.

 

[Drew8]

Liv's main weakness is a lack of interior offense against tough teams. She could improve her outside shot but the rest of her skills and abilities are great. I question her passion for basketball, but don't really know.

It is hard to say what Evina is based on last season. She was limited to a role player and not a main offensive option when she started with three other guards but she played her role admirably. Not sure how much her decrease in production was due to injury and how much to her new role.

Christyn is a star. She could improve her ability to adjust her offense to a case where she is not the main option, but other than that you can tell she is a lifetime basketball player.

 

[#12in21]

Liv's main weakness is a lack of interior offense against tough teams. She could improve her outside shot but the rest of her skills and abilities are great. I question her passion for basketball, but don't really know.

It is hard to say what Evina is based on last season. She was limited to a role player and not a main offensive option when she started with three other guards but she played her role admirably. Not sure how much her decrease in production was due to injury and how much to her new role.

Christyn is a star. She could improve her ability to adjust her offense to a case where she is not the main option, but other than that you can tell she is a lifetime basketball player.

I tend to agree with you on Liv. At times i wonder if she is not sure if basketball is where she see's herself in the future. Judging from her instagram posts I could see her just as easily pursuing modeling. I do think she has innate talent and the physical attributes to be successful at the next level if she commits to that being what she wants for her future and puts in the work to make it happen. To me it depends on whether she decides to exploit her God given gifts, which have allowed her to be a very good college player, to realize her full potential. If that is what she commits to do I see her as having a very successful carer in the W. If not....

As other posters have said Evina is a very versatile player who can have a career in the W - if her knees hold out. Unfortunately, as with Morgan, a key to Evina's longevity in the W will hinge on her health. I believe that most if not all coaches and teammates would love too have Evina on their team's roster. It is just a shame that due to her injury(ies) she doesn't have the potential to be the player she could have been at the next level. I'm definitely pulling for her though and hope she gets the opportunity.

Agree with your assessment on CW. She can play solid D, create her own shot, break down defenses and drive to the basket. Her game should translate well to the W. I think her only limitation, as had at times been the case at UCONN, is if she gets in her own head. IMO she wants a pro career and this season we'll see her continue where she left off the last part of last season, proving that she belongs there.

 

[Argonaut]

Five years from now, Liv’s game will more resemble DeWanna Bonner’s than any of the traditional posts y’all have been talking about.

She isn’t there right now because she’s had to be a more traditional post, but if a team drafts her to be a banger in the paint, I think we all know she won’t see a ton of playing time.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Five years from now, Liv’s game will more resemble DeWanna Bonner’s than any of the traditional posts y’all have been talking about.

She may be a bit thin, but she's gonna have to get a lot thinner to resemble Bonner. And add a 3 point shot. And become a high volume shooter w/ simply no conscious.

 

[Argonaut]

She may be a bit thin, but she's gonna have to get a lot thinner to resemble Bonner. And add a 3 point shot. And become a high volume shooter w/ simply no conscious.

I think Liv is naturally that thin, but she’s worked a ton on building the muscle that she has. Last year you could see that they were trying to add the 3 point shot into her game, and I think she’s going to keep working on that that this year.

And Bonner isn’t THAT high volume of a shooter. lol.

 

[nwhoopfan]

And Bonner isn’t THAT high volume of a shooter. lol.

She's a talented player, don't get me wrong. Maybe she's toned it down since she's been w/ the Sun. When she was with the Merc it seemed like if she touched the ball, she was putting it up, regardless of the quality (or lack thereof) of the shot. Or maybe my memory is playing tricks on me.

 

[Reypl21]

I think Liv is naturally that thin, but she’s worked a ton on building the muscle that she has. Last year you could see that they were trying to add the 3 point shot into her game, and I think she’s going to keep working on that that this year.

And Bonner isn’t THAT high volume of a shooter. lol.

Bonner shoots from the parking lot, and she has dribbling skills that lead into her shots. ONO can shoot from the free throw line extended when her defender gives her an eternity to wind up her shot. I dont see her being Dewanna Bonner anytime soon. She doesnt have the mechanics in her game to do it. You are short changing Bonner.

I'm telling you that ONO can be a teams Brianna Turner. A defensive 4, if she can play some defense on the perimeter. She does possess a mid range shot, which is more than Turner has. She has the height and length to defend in the paint, but her agility would be an asset in defending the more versatile 4s in the league (Stewart, Wilson, Parker, etc).

Having said that, Turner is a starter and now a two time All-Defensive player. I don't see that level of defensive excellence for ONO, but I think that would be her role.

 

[Rixxx]

Some others have said this but I think it depends on what team ONO ends up being drafted by. She has a lot of great skills that could be utilized by the right team. Some have used Mercedes Russell as an example. I thought she’d be out of the W by her second year but Seattle took her after she got waived and she has become a great reserve/starter for the Storm. She has good height, is a strong passer and facilitator in the post, and could be a strong defender.

Mercedes is truly the benefactor of good coaching she didn't have in TN or with her first WNBA team.

 

[oldhusky]

Five years from now, Liv’s game will more resemble DeWanna Bonner’s than any of the traditional posts y’all have been talking about.

She isn’t there right now because she’s had to be a more traditional post, but if a team drafts her to be a banger in the paint, I think we all know she won’t see a ton of playing time.

I don't see the comparison, partly because on her current team Bonner isn't a post at all, she is a wing. A very tall, very skinny wing. Playing next to J. Jones and B. Jones it makes sense, and she has found a comfort zone there. Mobile and long enough to guard 3's, while able to take them one on one and shoot over them.

Liv could probably guard spot up 4's on the perimeter, and maybe an occasional 3, but offensively she doesn't appear to have any of Bonner's skills. In some ways I think Liv is a traditional post. She scores most of her points very close to the basket usually against much smaller players that are not that physical. When facing size and strength her low post game has disappeared against bigger college players, and it only gets worse in the pros.

Her likely draft position suffers from those perceptions. Is it possible she could reverse those views? Maybe, but she needs to power thru contact when surrounded by other bigs underneath, bang hard for position on offense and hold hers on defense. Scouts are waiting to see that. With Dorka onboard the Uconn practices might be revealing. Liv has a talented physical player every bit as tall and quite a bit stronger to battle with. That might help her, but I just don't see the physical strength and skills to succeed were she needs to, namely right under the basket against players as tall and much stronger.