What's the likelihood of going undefeated?

[cbraarj]

Fun Fact: If they are undefeated going into the SC game, the streak would be at 99. They would have to beat the Gamecocks to make it triple digits.

Uconn has lost 18 games since Gampel Pavillion opened. That averages out to .67 games a year with over 300 wins. It will be interesting to say the least.

 

[hoophuskee]

As far as Butler, I really want to see what you see because she works so darn hard. Setting that aside, I too often see a kid that is off balance, falling away, a step slow on defense and a bit shy of the coordination needed to be a consistent contributor. She has to play because Kyra isn't ready but I was hoping to see a lot "smoother" play out of her and other than a few extended moments I have not. Finally, as far as Danger, I can remember a couple of times at least so far where Danger has fed her perfectly and Nat's hands were quick enough to handle it. Passes that Collier devours. To repeat, I really hope that Dailey's magic with the post players continues because to reach the height's that many are starting to predict, they need Nat.

I do see that she falls away in the low post. But I saw 6 rebounds vs Baylor and 9 rebounds vs Dayton. The Baylor game was a high pressure game. I believe most of her fumbles come from catches on the move. Don't think that is fixable overall in which she can gather inside and shoot. But when she is stationary, facing the basket, she has a capable shot, don't you think? Also - I saw a beuty pass from CD to NB in the low post in which NB was able to go right up. Plus I saw vs Dayton she made one extremely nice low post move. SHe moved right to left back to right again.

On top of it, I don't think she needs to score more than 4 or 6 points. If she gets rebounds - we can get out on the break. Even if it isn''t a fastbreak, Lou is such a weapon that she forces the defense to overextend on her which makes CD even more dangerous. I don't believe they need Nat to be much of a scorer.

 

[DaddyChoc]

I do see that she falls away in the low post. But I saw 6 rebounds vs Baylor and 9 rebounds vs Dayton. The Baylor game was a high pressure game. I believe most of her fumbles come from catches on the move. Don't think that is fixable overall in which she can gather inside and shoot. But when she is stationary, facing the basket, she has a capable shot, don't you think? Also - I saw a beuty pass from CD to NB in the low post in which NB was able to go right up. Plus I saw vs Dayton she made one extremely nice low post move. SHe moved right to left back to right again.

On top of it, I don't think she needs to score more than 4 or 6 points. If she gets rebounds - we can get out on the break. Even if it isn''t a fastbreak, Lou is such a weapon that she forces the defense to overextend on her which makes CD even more dangerous. I don't believe they need Nat to be much of a scorer.

I need block shots from her after Saniya gets burned at the elbow (in my Geno voice)

 

[SCGamecock]

I continue to think that South Carolina isn't a cohesive team and is limited offensively. They remind me a great deal of the Tennessee teams in the past ten years where they were primarily a good defensive team and a strong rebounding team but with very limited flow in their offense and with sporadic shooters.

PLOT TWIST: I know this counters the running theme of SC WBB.. but calling this year's SC team "offensively limited" is a stretch. I've been watching South Carolina basketball since 2008 (so I've seen some ugly basketball from our team) and unlike the past few years, scoring will not be a problem for this team. We're not 100% in sync yet but this team knows how to move the ball.

This team has averaged 80+ points the past 3 games taking their starters out midway through the 3rd and playing freshmen for the remainder of the game.. they scored 92 on Ohio State (yes, not the best defensive team.. but it was a road game versus a top 10 opponent) with A'ja Wilson riding the bench for most of the game. If Wilson had her typical night the score could've easily gone into the triple digits..

I'm not being braggadocious at all, but I don't think this is the same team from previous years that allowed opponents to sag off of 3 out of 5 players and occasionally struggled to score 60+ points for an entire game. This current team has scored 50+ points before halftime a few times already...

If anything, my main concern with this team is defensively.... they play defense, but they don't seem as aggressive as our defenses in the past.. they have a lot of catching up to do in that area in my opinion.

 

[hussybulldog]

I take an optimistic estimation here, first i calculate the odds of an undefeated regular season, I will totally discount Maryland and put uconn at more or less on an even ground with SC and ND which gives uconn a 25% chance of an undefeated regular season. I also assume that uconn will make it to the final 4 without any problem, while have to beat both of aforementioned 2 teams(25%), or just one of them (50%) or none (25%) to complete an undefeated season. That leaves about 12.5% of chance. So I voted 20%, would have voted 10% if that option is available.

 

[cbraarj]

PLOT TWIST: I know this counters the running theme of SC WBB.. but calling this year's SC team "offensively limited" is a stretch. I've been watching South Carolina basketball since 2008 (so I've seen some ugly basketball from our team) and unlike the past few years, scoring will not be a problem for this team. We're not 100% in sync yet but this team knows how to move the ball.

This team has averaged 80+ points the past 3 games taking their starters out midway through the 3rd and playing freshmen for the remainder of the game.. they scored 92 on Ohio State (yes, not the best defensive team.. but it was a road game versus a top 10 opponent) with A'ja Wilson riding the bench for most of the game. If Wilson had her typical night the score could've easily gone into the triple digits..

I'm not being braggadocious at all, but I don't think this is the same team from previous years that allowed opponents to sag off of 3 out of 5 players and occasionally struggled to score 60+ points for an entire game. This current team has scored 50+ points before halftime a few times already...

If anything, my main concern with this team is defensively.... they play defense, but they don't seem as aggressive as our defenses in the past.. they have a lot of catching up to do in that area in my opinion.

Mitchell and Sessions were both really good defensive players and big losses for SC. The team just needs to work on it together. With 3 new starters, IMO, defense is what takes longer for teams to learn.

 

[BroadwayVa]

My grandmother always told me don't bite off more than you can chew.

I like people with a sense of humor--the world is too up tight!! Thanks.

 

[BroadwayVa]

victor64- - - -I beg to differ with your evaluation of Natalie Butler. IMHO I think she has done a really good job of fitting herself into the offense & defense after a horrible lost year with the thumb injury last season. The injury couldn't have come at a worse time then right before the season started after she worked so hard on her transfer year and all the coaches & players were singing her praises in preseason! Then boom, the season went down the tubes!
She has gotten herself into fantastic shape again in the off season, losing close to 30lbs. since she arrived in Storrs! She stayed on campus this past off season to work with Marissa & CD and the hard work she put in is quite evident!
She has improved game to game as more confident in her offense and she has shown some tenacity in her defensive play! As time goes on she will become a big asset to the Huskies season!

Thanks--Natalie may not be Stewie or Dolson --She gives this team the added post presence they need. She gets better ever game.
Thanks RShermvikes---i like this..

 

[BroadwayVa]

Buzzyboy- - - Nurse has shown in the past both with UCONN and the Canadian team that she is an offensive threat. IMHO she is trying too hard to be Stewie, MoJeff & Morgan in one package, instead of just being Kia Nurse! The last couple games since her talk with Geno in his office she has shown to be more relaxed and letting the game come to her! I have faith that slowly but surely her offense will join her defense as first rate!
Gabby, Saniya, Nurse, Collier and Katie Lou have been starters so far this season so Gabby wouldn't be coming in for Kia. Crystal Dangerfield comes off the bench for Saniya to add speed to the offense! UCONN needs Kia to play large amount of minutes for her defensive skills, as her offense comes back!

The highlighted portion above says everything about KIA--she feels the new responsibility--demands too much from herself. But I like that she surrounds herself with the team on breaks or before starting the game--and does some direction and pep talks.
Really nice post.

 

[warbler1055]

I know I will get lots of flaks about this, but I really think that this thread and a bunch of posters are offending and tempting the mojo gods. So in that spirit, I say we are DOOMED!!! Lots of games against great teams will be close and exciting, but this team has heart and leaves everything on the floor. What more can anyone expect? DOOMED!!!!!

 

[bags27]

This jogged my memory. From Frank Deford's article
Geno Auriemma + Diana Taurasi = Love, Italian Style

"at the start of the 2003-04 season: The team was made up of
Diana, some holdover subs, two redshirts and some callow frosh.
The coaches were figuring six, eight, maybe even 10 losses. The
first day of practice was a debacle. Afterward, though, Diana
blithely bubbled, "This is going to be the ugliest undefeated
team in history."
Geno Auriemma + Diana Taurasi = Love, Italian Style A pair of paisans at UConn share a passion for hoops that makes a perfect match of cocky coach and fearless player

Absolutely awesome: thanks so much. Who writes that well anymore? And then there's this, which today might be difficult to express publicly:

Diana says, "I know this will irritate a lot of coaches, so I never said it then, but I wanted to play for a man. Anyway, Geno was different from all the other coaches. He'd tell me things that were real. And 99 percent of it was true."

Auriemma helps clarify this. "You know what I do better than most anyone?" he asks. "I deal with women. And the way I do it is to tell them exactly what I think. I don't think they're used to that from men."

 

[Gus Mahler]

I do see that she falls away in the low post. But I saw 6 rebounds vs Baylor and 9 rebounds vs Dayton. The Baylor game was a high pressure game. I believe most of her fumbles come from catches on the move. Don't think that is fixable overall in which she can gather inside and shoot. But when she is stationary, facing the basket, she has a capable shot, don't you think? Also - I saw a beuty pass from CD to NB in the low post in which NB was able to go right up. Plus I saw vs Dayton she made one extremely nice low post move. SHe moved right to left back to right again.

On top of it, I don't think she needs to score more than 4 or 6 points. If she gets rebounds - we can get out on the break. Even if it isn''t a fastbreak, Lou is such a weapon that she forces the defense to overextend on her which makes CD even more dangerous. I don't believe they need Nat to be much of a scorer.

I'm interested in seeing against ND whether Nat can hit some 15-footers and draw Turner away from the basket.

 

[HopJim]

I know everyone will get mad at me for asking this question, so please refrain from negative comments in that regard....but after watching the first several games of the year, I think it's definitely plausible. Talent wise, I don't think there's a team that has better talent than Connecticut with the exception being potentially South Carolina. You have:

Williams/Collier-extremely athletic forwards who can defend multiple positions, score from 3 point land, mid ranger and in the paid, both rebound well and both are equally comfortable being scorers or role players.

Chong/Dangerfield-one of the better point guard combos in the nation. Dangerfield is one of the better freshman point guards we've seen in a while. She looks so steady and confident out there. Always under control, a capable scorer, can run the offense and beat you off the dribble. She looks like Jefferson as a seasoned sophomore. Chong isn't quite as dynamic as Dangerfield, but she is quietly very very good. They make a great 1-2 punch.

KLS-one of the better forwards in the nation. A great shooter who looks confident and aggressive this year. Averaging 22 a game.

Natalie Butler-a blue collar big player who can hit shots inside, fights for rebounds and is physical. Adds a different dimension off the bench. She isn't a go to player, but she plays her role well.

Nurse-A bit underwhelmed by her to start the year, but she brings physical play and toughness. I expect she'll pick up her shooting as the season goes on. At least she isn't jacking up bad shots, she's just missing good looks.

Besides SC, no other team has a lineup quite like UCONN's where there are 4 players who could easily lead team in scoring night in night now. Most importantly, UOCNN plays really cohesive basketball together. In 3/4 games they've had a positive A/TO ratio, including both wins against a highly ranked team. They shoot well and play hard 100% of the time. Defensively, they aren't great but they'll improve as the year goes on. On an off day, I think there are only a few teams that can hang with or beat UCONN.

Looking at the schedule, the only teams left with talent to compete with UCONN are:
Texas (H)....they have talent but they just don't appear to be a good team. I don't see them hanging within 15 of UCONN.


Notre Dame (A)...definitely a game UCONN could lose. Ogunbowale is one of the best guards in the nation, Allen might be the best point guard in the nation, and everyone in the lineup can score. If ND shoots well from deep, it'll be a tough win for UCONN.

Ohio State (H)....I don't see it happening. Ohio State doesn't play well enough as a team to hang with UCONN IMO. And the game is in Connecticut.

Maryland (A)...another game that could be lost. Maryland is quite good and they have one of their best rosters this year. I don't think they'll upset UCONN because they don't defend particularly well, but it could be a tight game.

South Carolina (H)....definitely a game that UCONN could lose. SC has 4 outstanding scorers, each of whom can create matchup problems for Connecticut. They also play great defense. However, SC is traditionally a bad offensive team. They have more weapons this year, but if they struggle to score against Connecticut, they wont win.

If UCONN can get past those big 3, they'll be undefeated entering the NCAA tournament, and will likely waltz to the Final Four in typical UCONN fashion. At the Final Four, anything could happen this year with the talent spread, but I'd still bet on UCONN to win.

I'd put the odds right now at about 40%. It may seem high, but UCONN has lost one game in the last 3 years and this team looks good. You have Geno running the show, and no one else in WCBB has looked all that amazing to start the year. Teams will improve as the year goes on, but UCONN will too, and the Huskies have as much upside as anyone considering they are still figuring out roles and systems without Tuck/Jefferson/Stewart. I think Notre Dame is the biggest hurdle. If they can knock off Notre Dame, odds jump up to 60-70% in my book.

Appreciate all the good info. Love this year's team but believe they will lose to high, unranked team. This year's team seems to play at their best when clear underdog or when behind. Some night when 3 pointers are going in for opposition and not for Conn could spell first L.

 

[Tontobruto]

In order for there to be 0% chance of Uconn winning all their remaining games, there must by force be at least one game that they have 0% chance of winning since the solution to this problem is the product of the probabilites in the series. Since they have a decent chance of winning any of their games the choice of 0% is impossible by inspection. Likewise the choice of 100% is equally absurd. This would mean that every future opponent would have 0% chance of winning. Besides being ridiculous this would be exceedingly boring. Tontobruto says the correct probability is about .05 as has been previously and wisely stated. 5% aint that bad

 

[iamcbs]

I know everyone will get mad at me for asking this question, so please refrain from negative comments in that regard....but after watching the first several games of the year, I think it's definitely plausible. Talent wise, I don't think there's a team that has better talent than Connecticut with the exception being potentially South Carolina. You have:

Williams/Collier-extremely athletic forwards who can defend multiple positions, score from 3 point land, mid ranger and in the paid, both rebound well and both are equally comfortable being scorers or role players.

Chong/Dangerfield-one of the better point guard combos in the nation. Dangerfield is one of the better freshman point guards we've seen in a while. She looks so steady and confident out there. Always under control, a capable scorer, can run the offense and beat you off the dribble. She looks like Jefferson as a seasoned sophomore. Chong isn't quite as dynamic as Dangerfield, but she is quietly very very good. They make a great 1-2 punch.

KLS-one of the better forwards in the nation. A great shooter who looks confident and aggressive this year. Averaging 22 a game.

Natalie Butler-a blue collar big player who can hit shots inside, fights for rebounds and is physical. Adds a different dimension off the bench. She isn't a go to player, but she plays her role well.

Nurse-A bit underwhelmed by her to start the year, but she brings physical play and toughness. I expect she'll pick up her shooting as the season goes on. At least she isn't jacking up bad shots, she's just missing good looks.

Besides SC, no other team has a lineup quite like UCONN's where there are 4 players who could easily lead team in scoring night in night now. Most importantly, UOCNN plays really cohesive basketball together. In 3/4 games they've had a positive A/TO ratio, including both wins against a highly ranked team. They shoot well and play hard 100% of the time. Defensively, they aren't great but they'll improve as the year goes on. On an off day, I think there are only a few teams that can hang with or beat UCONN.

Looking at the schedule, the only teams left with talent to compete with UCONN are:
Texas (H)....they have talent but they just don't appear to be a good team. I don't see them hanging within 15 of UCONN.


Notre Dame (A)...definitely a game UCONN could lose. Ogunbowale is one of the best guards in the nation, Allen might be the best point guard in the nation, and everyone in the lineup can score. If ND shoots well from deep, it'll be a tough win for UCONN.

Ohio State (H)....I don't see it happening. Ohio State doesn't play well enough as a team to hang with UCONN IMO. And the game is in Connecticut.

Maryland (A)...another game that could be lost. Maryland is quite good and they have one of their best rosters this year. I don't think they'll upset UCONN because they don't defend particularly well, but it could be a tight game.

South Carolina (H)....definitely a game that UCONN could lose. SC has 4 outstanding scorers, each of whom can create matchup problems for Connecticut. They also play great defense. However, SC is traditionally a bad offensive team. They have more weapons this year, but if they struggle to score against Connecticut, they wont win.

If UCONN can get past those big 3, they'll be undefeated entering the NCAA tournament, and will likely waltz to the Final Four in typical UCONN fashion. At the Final Four, anything could happen this year with the talent spread, but I'd still bet on UCONN to win.

I'd put the odds right now at about 40%. It may seem high, but UCONN has lost one game in the last 3 years and this team looks good. You have Geno running the show, and no one else in WCBB has looked all that amazing to start the year. Teams will improve as the year goes on, but UCONN will too, and the Huskies have as much upside as anyone considering they are still figuring out roles and systems without Tuck/Jefferson/Stewart. I think Notre Dame is the biggest hurdle. If they can knock off Notre Dame, odds jump up to 60-70% in my book.

Their chances are slim and none, and slim is saddling his horse as we speak. The gauntlet they have just next week is too daunting a task for this team, but their goal isn't to when the regular season, from what I've seen already Geno, CD and the staff will have them ready come money time

 

[hoophuskee]

I'm interested in seeing against ND whether Nat can hit some 15-footers and draw Turner away from the basket.

I don't think that is possible. ND will give her the shot for one thing (for example if NB goes 3-5 from the floor I'm sure ND woudl expect NB's next two shots to be 3-7) and secondly UCONN won't look for that option to be anything more than a "show-me" occasional basket. Or if Turner does come out on her - it will be an attempt to force a turnover. Which is why I don't think UCONN will ever use her like that. Because if she does get the ball on the perimeter, I wouldn't call her "Dolson" when it comes to passing. And vs a top tier team-- too much risk. Also, if she is just 50-60% ft shooter I don't believe she is the type of player that can pull away a defender from the basket by consistently hitting jump shots.

Instead Gabby and/or Collier can. Collier is 6'1 and Turner is 6'3. So at one end she can guard her - hopefully. At the other end Collier would be a much much much much much better probability option to pull Turner away. I'm very interested though to see which one will Turner guard - Gabby or Collier?

 

[AAADog]

I said 80%. I think there is a good chance of running the table. I certainly think we can beat Maryland and think we have at least a 50-50 chance of beating ND. I agree with those that say South Carolina is the best team right now, and if we were playing now there is a good chance we would lose. But the SC game is not in December. It is Feb 15, at the end of the season. So the question is, which of the 2 teams will improve the most between now and then. Based on past experience and the rate at which UCONN seems to be jelling through the first 4 games, I am betting we will be ready to win that game in Feb. In any case, that is likely to be the game of the year, hyped like crazy.

 

[Tontobruto]

I said 80%. I think there is a good chance of running the table. I certainly think we can beat Maryland and think we have at least a 50-50 chance of beating ND. I agree with those that say South Carolina is the best team right now, and if we were playing now there is a good chance we would lose. But the SC game is not in December. It is Feb 15, at the end of the season. So the question is, which of the 2 teams will improve the most between now and then. Based on past experience and the rate at which UCONN seems to be jelling through the first 4 games, I am betting we will be ready to win that game in Feb. In any case, that is likely to be the game of the year, hyped like crazy.

I said 80%. I think there is a good chance of running the table. I certainly think we can beat Maryland and think we have at least a 50-50 chance of beating ND. I agree with those that say South Carolina is the best team right now, and if we were playing now there is a good chance we would lose. But the SC game is not in December. It is Feb 15, at the end of the season. So the question is, which of the 2 teams will improve the most between now and then. Based on past experience and the rate at which UCONN seems to be jelling through the first 4 games, I am betting we will be ready to win that game in Feb. In any case, that is likely to be the game of the year, hyped like crazy.

But AAADog if we only have a 50-50 chance of beating ND how can we have an 80% chance of running the table?

 

[Carnac]

If every team on UCONN's schedule had to pick one game they would likely lose..... who do you think they would pick? Then let's make it so! Undefeated season coming right up.

Tony, the same could be said of which game on their schedule would they most like to win. The pendulum swings both ways. I do like your take better though. Let's go with that!!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

People, a lot of fans are very tough on our post players for fumbling the passes into the post but please remember that most of these passes are down at knee or ankle level and you can never complete a pass down low, it's too far to reach for a 6'3" to 6'6" big girl! The pass to the post has to be waist, chest or high to jump and use their height! Natalie has gotten some bad revues for passes that a big girl cannot handle, and anything up she catches and attacks! So please before you put grief on a big girl ask yourself WHERE WAS THE PASS!

 

[Carnac]

I'm going to make my first bold prediction of the season (I'm going out as far on this limb as I can)......................NO TEAM WILL GO UNDEFEATED THIS SEASON.
Book it!!! I don't/will not predict that UConn will lose a particular game. That's bad Mojo, and not my style. I predict victories for our team. If you think going undefeated is easy and common place, do a little research, and look up how may different teams have gone undefeated the last 15 years.

According to Ken Pomeroy (2016 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings) there are 351 Division basketball teams. 351 opportunities EVERY YEAR for a team to post a perfect season. Multiply that by 15 (years), you have 5,265 opportunities in the last 15 years for a D-1 team to post a perfect record.

How many times has it been done? The law of averages say it won't happen this year, since it happened last year. Perfect seasons not common place, and don't happen every year. We may not see another one for 10 years, or we may see one next year. I'm saying "not THIS year". We'll just have to wait and see if I'm getting incorrect information from my resources, or if in fact the envelope is correct.

A pitcher can throw a no hitter, and never throw another one again the rest of his career. Multiple no-hitters are rare, kinda like multiple undefeated seasons. UConn has 6. I believe no other women's team has more than 1.

 

[bballnut90]

I'm going to make my first bold prediction of the season (I'm going out as far on this limb as I can).......NO TEAM WILL GO UNDEFEATED THIS SEASON.
Book it!!! I don't/will not predict that UConn will lose a particular game. That's bad Mojo, and not my style. I predict victories for our team. If you think going undefeated is easy and common place, do a little research, and look up how may different teams have gone undefeated the last 15 years.

According to Ken Pomeroy (2016 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings) there are 351 Division basketball teams. 351 opportunities EVERY YEAR for a team to post a perfect season. Multiply that by 15 (years), you have 5,265 opportunities in the last 15 years for a D-1 team to post a perfect record.

How many times has it been done? The law of averages say it won't happen this year, since it happened last year. Perfect seasons not common place, and don't happen every year. We may not see another one for 10 years, or we may see one next year. I'm saying "not THIS year". We'll just have to wait and see if I'm getting incorrect information from my resources, or if in fact the envelope is correct.

A pitcher can throw a no hitter, and never throw another one again the rest of his career. Multiple no-hitters are rare, kinda like multiple undefeated seasons. UConn has 6. I believe no other women's team has more than 1.

There has been an undefeated champion for 5 of the last 8 years. It's not that rare anymore, especially if you're Connecticut. What separates Connecticut from other top programs is they do not play down to their opponent, nor do they lose to teams they shouldn't. They've had 2 bad losses in the last 9 seasons--St. John's in 2012 and Stanford in 2015. Those are the only times UCONN has lost to a team they were clearly more talented than. Every other loss, UCONN was beat by a team that had the talent to challenge and knock off the Huskies. Using that logic, the only teams left on UCONN's schedule who have comparable talent are Notre Dame, SC, and Maryland.

Notre Dame in an away game is brutal and definitely the toughest challenge. Out of UCONN's last 11 losses, 7 have come at the hands of Notre Dame. Muffett can coach, and UCONN is definitely down a peg in talent which is the perfect opportunity for an Irish upset. That said, the Irish haven't looked as good as they have the last 3-4 seasons, so I wouldn't be surprised if Connecticut comes out and wins relatively handily. The homecourt advantage for ND should be huge, so it really is a toss up.

If UCONN makes it past Notre Dame, they'll have to face Maryland. Maryland is a bit of an unknown since they've played a very cupcake schedule so far. They play Louisville and ASU which should provide a better picture, but if UCONN makes it through DePaul, Texas, Notre Dame and Ohio State and is still undefeated, I think they'll take care of Maryland without a ton of difficulty.

South Carolina--on paper they look good, but UCONN has thoroughly dominated the matchup in the last two meetings. SC has size and can slow down the game, but they couldn't keep up with UCONN the last two times. In both meetings, the Huskies jumped out to 10+ point leads in the first 11 minutes and went on cruise control the rest of the game. They were never threatened since SC plays a slower game and wasn't able to string together enough scores to get back in the game.

If they can get past Notre Dame, I really think UCONN is in the driver's seat to be undefeated going into the NCAA tournament. Whether they'll be able to keep it up and win 6 straight in April remains to be seen, but they have 3 big challenges left before they're in the clear.

 

[j66kicker]

How many times has it been done? The law of averages say it won't happen this year, since it happened last year.

A pitcher can throw a no hitter, and never throw another one again the rest of his career. Multiple no-hitters are rare, kinda like multiple undefeated seasons. UConn has 6. I believe no other women's team has more than 1.

1) The law of averages says what happened last year has no bearing whatsoever on what happens this year.
2) UCONN has 6 which not only defies the odds, it's about as probable as the sun not coming up tomorrow. I don't think mathmatical probability has anything to do with whether or not we go undefeated. I think it's just talent and coaching, mostly coaching. Geno has this figured out and nobody else does. I believe there is more than one team in this year of "parity" which Geno could take and potentially coach to an NC.

 

[Carnac]

There has been an undefeated champion for 5 of the last 8 years. It's not that rare anymore, especially if you're Connecticut. What separates Connecticut from other top programs is they do not play down to their opponent, nor do they lose to teams they shouldn't. They've had 2 bad losses in the last 9 seasons--St. John's in 2012 and Stanford in 2015. Those are the only times UCONN has lost to a team they were clearly more talented than. Every other loss, UCONN was beat by a team that had the talent to challenge and knock off the Huskies. Using that logic, the only teams left on UCONN's schedule who have comparable talent are Notre Dame, SC, and Maryland.

Notre Dame in an away game is brutal and definitely the toughest challenge. Out of UCONN's last 11 losses, 7 have come at the hands of Notre Dame. Muffett can coach, and UCONN is definitely down a peg in talent which is the perfect opportunity for an Irish upset. That said, the Irish haven't looked as good as they have the last 3-4 seasons, so I wouldn't be surprised if Connecticut comes out and wins relatively handily. The homecourt advantage for ND should be huge, so it really is a toss up.

If UCONN makes it past Notre Dame, they'll have to face Maryland. Maryland is a bit of an unknown since they've played a very cupcake schedule so far. They play Louisville and ASU which should provide a better picture, but if UCONN makes it through DePaul, Texas, Notre Dame and Ohio State and is still undefeated, I think they'll take care of Maryland without a ton of difficulty.

South Carolina--on paper they look good, but UCONN has thoroughly dominated the matchup in the last two meetings. SC has size and can slow down the game, but they couldn't keep up with UCONN the last two times. In both meetings, the Huskies jumped out to 10+ point leads in the first 11 minutes and went on cruise control the rest of the game. They were never threatened since SC plays a slower game and wasn't able to string together enough scores to get back in the game.

If they can get past Notre Dame, I really think UCONN is in the driver's seat to be undefeated going into the NCAA tournament. Whether they'll be able to keep it up and win 6 straight in April remains to be seen, but they have 3 big challenges left before they're in the clear.

I sincerely hope you're right. You've made some very salient and thoughtful points and observations, most of which I was conscious of when I made the decision to step out there.
Stranger things have happened. That two point win against Florida State could just as easily been a two point loss. I just can't see THIS team going undefeated. There are those land mines that you mentioned: (Notre Dame, Maryland & South Carolina) on the road to Dallas (site of this year's women's final four) that they'll have to negotiate. Can they win it all? Sure they can.
Hosting the first weekend at Gampel. Then enjoying a short trip south to their home away from home the second weekend in Bridgeport (enjoying a large UConn fan presence at both venues), then on to Dallas. The last 3 games as usual will be the most difficult.

They will make the tournament, most likely a #1 seed. However, If they lose 2 of 3 of these upcoming big games (which I sincerely doubt), they will drop in the rankings. They won't play enough ranked teams after that to move back in to the top four, and for the first time in recent memory, be a #2 seed. They could only hope that teams ranked above them lose some games, and they move back up by default, a scenario they have not had to experience for many years, and I doubt will happen. The point has been belabored many times, that this is not your average UConn team, so we should not expect every game (or this season) to be business as usual. I'm not preaching doom & gloom here, I'm just saying.

In WCBB, size matters, but it didn't help Baylor or South Carolina get to the FF last year. Believe me bballnut90, I would have no problem dining on a course of "chilled crow" if I'm wrong on this one. It would mean another National Championship for UConn. I would consider that a very fair trade off. I'm ALWAYS on board with UConn winning a natty.

 

[Carnac]

1) The law of averages says what happened last year has no bearing whatsoever on what happens this year.
2) UCONN has 6 which not only defies the odds, it's about as probable as the sun not coming up tomorrow. I don't think mathmatical probability has anything to do with whether or not we go undefeated. I think it's just talent and coaching, mostly coaching. Geno has this figured out and nobody else does. I believe there is more than one team in this year of "parity" which Geno could take and potentially coach to an NC.

We disagree. We see things differently. The law of averages does exist. If you choose not to believe it can apply here, I'm OK with that. I stated MY opinion. Everyone has their own independent and personal opinion. While I welcome yours, I stand firmly by my post and it's content.

You have to have a very special team to go undefeated. Baylor had one with Griner. UConn had one with the BIG 3. This UConn team is full of potential, but it's not that kind of special.

This is not the first, nor will it be the last time a poster disagrees with my take. I'd be surprise if someone didn't. Everyone will not see the glass as half full. We'll see which one of us is right at the end of the season. BTW, Unless the rapture comes today, the sun will come up tomorrow.

 

[j66kicker]

We disagree. We see things differently. The law of averages does exist. If you choose not to believe it can apply here, I'm OK with that. I stated MY opinion. Everyone has their own independent and personal opinion. While I welcome yours, I stand firmly by my post and it's content. This is not the first, nor will it be the last time a poster disagrees with my take. I'd be surprise if someone didn't. Everyone will not see the glass as half full. We'll see which one of us is right at the end of the season. BTW, Unless the rapture comes today, the sun will come up tomorrow.

My glass is more than half full. Clearly I think our team has a better chance to go undefeated this year than you do, since you predicted they won't.

Also, there is no statistical law that says if something happened recently then it has a smaller probability of happening again soon (see "Gambler's Fallacy" example Law of averages - Wikipedia). First of all this stuff applies basically to random events (coin toss etc.). If undefeated seasons were random events, then there would be an extremely small probability of the same team doing it 6 times in a small number of years. However, even if this did occur, the probability that that same team would do it again the year following an undefeated season is still exactly the same as it was any other year.

Anyway, my point was, in MY opinion this is not a random, statistically predictable phenomenon. Rather it's manageable and is being manipulated by someone who knows how to do it better than the other coaches. Therefore I think predicting cannot be based on any statistical laws.

 

[CBear01]

and for the first time in recent memory, be a #2 seed.

IIRC we were a #2 seed (maybe even #3?) for the tournament in D's senior year, lost a few games in the season, but ended up the sweetest winners and dual champions in 2004! It wasn't the prettiest season but it was such a pretty ending! See, to me, getting to the end and having a 6 game winning streak at the end of a "questionable" season is so much nicer than wondering if we can go undefeated...again. 6 times is pretty awesome but haven't we had enough pie yet? are we that gluttonous that we need a 7th with this team? just food for thought

 

[Carnac]

IIRC we were a #2 seed (maybe even #3?) for the tournament in D's senior year, lost a few games in the season, but ended up the sweetest winners and dual champions in 2004! It wasn't the prettiest season but it was such a pretty ending! See, to me, getting to the end and having a 6 game winning streak at the end of a "questionable" season is so much nicer than wondering if we can go undefeated...again. 6 times is pretty awesome but haven't we had enough pie yet? are we that gluttonous that we need a 7th with this team? just food for thought

As long as we get in, and we will, what # seed we get will not be that important. We still have to play six games to win it all. I really don't think Geno tor the team cares who they play, or in what order. I completely concur and agree that you don't have to be a #1 seed to win the natty.

 

[bizarro aj]

I think uconn has 2 tough games that could end their streak and that's DePaul and SC. ND has to prove they can hang with uconn without diggins which they have yet to do. Maryland schedules to many cupcakes and you can't get any better doing that. DePaul has Bruno who knows geno the best. If uconn loses to SC i think they win the rematch in the tourney, but i also think if uconn beats SC they lose the rematch in April.

 

[Carnac]

My glass is more than half full. Clearly I think our team has a better chance to go undefeated this year than you do, since you predicted they won't.

Also, there is no statistical law that says if something happened recently then it has a smaller probability of happening again soon (see "Gambler's Fallacy" example Law of averages - Wikipedia). First of all this stuff applies basically to random events (coin toss etc.). If undefeated seasons were random events, then there would be an extremely small probability of the same team doing it 6 times in a small number of years. However, even if this did occur, the probability that that same team would do it again the year following an undefeated season is still exactly the same as it was any other year.

Anyway, my point was, in MY opinion this is not a random, statistically predictable phenomenon. Rather it's manageable and is being manipulated by someone who knows how to do it better than the other coaches. Therefore I think predicting cannot be based on any statistical laws.

OK Kicker, it looks like you want to get technical over a simple harmless prediction that I made. Let's do it.
Point #1: You said: "The probability that that same team would do it again the year following an undefeated season is still exactly the same as it was any other year."
My take on that point: I don't agree. Unless EVERY player from the previous year's team came back, that team IS NOT the same team. Seniors leave, freshmen come in. So that illustration won't fly.
Point 2: The schedules are NOT the same from year to year. NO TEAM plays the exact same schedule every year. Their OOC schedule is different, and the teams they play in the NCAA tournament are different every year.
Here's the logic I used in making my prediction:
Teams entering the tournament unbeaten since 1986 - (30 years)

Of the 16 teams who have entered the tournament unbeaten, 9 went on to win the National Championship.[6]

• In 1986, Texas entered the tournament 30–0, beat USC for the national title, and ended the season 34–0.
• In 1990, Louisiana Tech entered the tournament 29–0, but lost in the Final Four to Auburn.
• In 1992, Vermont entered the tournament 29–0, but lost in the first round to George Washington.
• In 1993, Vermont entered the tournament 28–0, but lost in the first round to Rutgers.
• In 1995, Connecticut entered the tournament 29–0, beat Tennessee for the national title, and ended the season 35–0.
• In 1997, Connecticut entered the tournament 30–0, but lost in the Midwest Regional Final to Tennessee.
• In 1998, Tennessee (33–0) and Liberty (28–0) both entered the tournament unbeaten; Liberty lost in the first round to Tennessee, which went on to beat Louisiana Tech for the national title and ended the season 39–0.
• In 2002, 2009, and 2010, Connecticut entered the tournament 33–0, won the national title in each, and ended those seasons 39–0. They beat Oklahoma, Louisville, and Stanford, respectively.
• In 2012, Baylor entered the tournament 34-0, beat Notre Dame for the national title, and ended the season 40-0. The Lady Bears became the first team in NCAA college basketball history, for either women or men, to win 40 games in a season. Notably, Louisiana Tech went 40-5 during the 1979-80 season. This was during the AIAW era for women's basketball.
• In 2014, Connecticut (34–0) and Notre Dame (32–0) both entered the tournament unbeaten; Connecticut beat Notre Dame 79-58 for the national title, ended the season 40-0 and is the 8th team to end the season unbeaten.
• In 2015, Princeton entered the tournament 30–0, but lost in the second round to Maryland.
• In 2016, Connecticut entered the tournament 32-0, beat Syracuse for the national title to end the season 38-0.

The last NON-UConn team to go all the way was Baylor in 2012, 4 years ago. Before that the last non-UConn team to do it was Tennessee in 1998, 18 years ago. After this year, it will be 19!!!!! I agree it's not random. I could have waited until the first of the year to make a more informed prediction, it would have a lot easier. The games UConn have a good chance of losing would have been behind them, but I didn't. That would have been easy.

Last year's UConn team was special, very special. They won all of the scheduled games. The 2012 Baylor team was special, they too won all of their games. THIS year's UConn team is NOT that kind of special. I don't know how to get that across. They are not as good as last year's team. EVERYBODY knows that. They are not that deep, and they are a young team still looking for leadership from within. They are not a dominant team.

Before the season, most posters, BY commenters and WCBB analysts ALL predicted that UConn would lose a game or two this year. Now, just 4 games into the season, some here in the yard are beginning to back away from their earlier pronouncements. I was one of the ones that thought there was no way THIS team could win them all. I'm standing fast on that thought.
The 2014-2015 UConn team was much better that this year's team, right? They had the BIG 3, plus KML and Kiah Stokes. Well they lost one.

I attended that game in Palo Alto in 2014. If UConn had played Stanford first, then UC Davis, I believe they would have beaten Stanford. UConn had just come from blowing out UC Davis 3 nights before. They were riding high on a sea of unbridled confidence. They had just blown out a team by 50-60 points, and figured that Stanford would not be that much of a problem. They no doubt figured they would just go into to Maples Pavilion, handle their business, and go home. Guess what, crap happened. They were not ready to play Stanford that night, but Stanford was ready to play them. Tara Van Derveer had her girls frothing at the mouth ready to tear in the Huskies. From the tip to the buzzer, they never let up. The tension and fan hype in the arena that night did not come across on TV. You had to be there. The same can happen to this team. It only takes one.

Last year the other 3 #1 seeds all had tickets in hand, room reservations made, and site seeing itineraries planned for their trip to Indianapolis for the final 4, but crap happened. None of them made it. UConn has fallen back towards the pack some. Before it was UConn, a large gap, then everybody else. Not this year. The gap has closed. We'll see just how much in the days and weeks to come.
I understand about us having Geno and they don't. Geno has lost games before, and he'll do it again.

While this team has great potential, they can lose one. Again I remind you, crap happens. It came real close to happening the first game. We can go around and around with this all weekend. Neither one of us is going to budge off of our positions. So we'll just agree to disagree and leave it at that. When UConn loses a game, my point will have been made. If they don't, yours will. I hope my theory is wrong, and they win #12.