I agree with most of what you’re saying and love the reference to the legendary Hoya upset by Nova as I remember that game well and you are spot on. However while UConn is a great defensive team, perhaps historically so but for their somewhat deficient shot blocking, they are not really defense dominant or offensively inadequate. They are the most efficient offense in the country (leading the nation in shooting percentage and 3 point shooting percentage and assists and assist to turnover ratio and margin of victory)and one of the most prolific scoring teams even though they never run up the score and sit their starters most 4th quarters.
I didn’t mean to suggest that UConn is offensively inadequate. You are right to emphasize the team’s great efficiency. I was merely responding to the thread question, and tried to imagine how we could lose. A cold shooting night won’t be enough, in part because of the role of transition buckets in our efficiency.
But I can imagine a cold shooting stretch in a game leaving an opponent an opening. In the Michigan game, for example, which some teams could try to take as a model, Azzi was cold for the first half. Despite this we built a lead and then lost it. Our defense was good that day, but not yet as good as it is now, and though Syla was on fire in the 4th quarter, she did also get open looks from 3. Azzi came roaring back in the second half to hold the lead and her own hot streak also bolstered the confidence of her teammates. Could that strategy work against us again?
Could another team scrap their way to a victory in a similar way? The Tennessee game is instructive in this regard. Hot shooting and scrambling defense let them take a lead going into the third quarter. But the defense was much better by this point in the season. It adjusted and choked off Tennessee’s entire effort from the middle of the third quarter on… and they didn’t have the team culture to recover emotionally from being dismantled so completely.
That same formula — hot shooting and scrambling defense — also worked briefly for Villanova (and Marquette iirc) allowing them to play us close for a stretch. But in the end, defensive intensity could not be denied and they lacked the stamina to sustain their effort for an entire game. I think it’s probably demoralizing for a team to play us close in the first half and then watch it all slip away as our defense clamps down and their fatigue sets in.
The main reason I don’t fear a cold shooting night is the emergence of other shooters besides Azzi. Early in the season, Ash had an extended cold shooting stretch. In the absence of Paige, many of us expected her to step up even more than she had last season. Geno also encouraged KK and Kayleigh to take more 3s early on, though they were inconsistent. But Allie stepped up in a big way, and Kayleigh has improved to 34% for the season. Naturally Sarah has always been reliable. Kayleigh has also stepped up her midrange shooting, as has Ash. And Ash’s perimeter shooting has improved noticeably in the second half of the season. And I have a feeling Blanca is on the verge of recovering her early season form.
So no, I don’t fear a cold shooting night. I share your confidence. But I also don’t fear an opponent’s hot shooting night given where our defense is now. To beat us, an opponent would need both elements, and our defense isn’t going away. That’s a lesson a team like Vandy could learn quite decisively. But even teams like UCLA or Texas with their great size and depth are likely to run afoul of it too. It’s not just about height. Stamina also matters and Geno knows how to make them run with us. The defense forces teams to play at our pace, and I’m not sure there are any who can. The only ones to try, and the ones who have the athleticism to attempt it, tOSU and Tennessee, failed miserably.