diggerfoot
Humanity Hiker
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There was a recent post that linked us to the UPS Team Performance Index ... a fascinating dataset. The six metrics are offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, rebounding percentage, ballhandling, miscues and winning percentage. It does not control for SOS, so that you'll see Green Bay up near the levels of Baylor and UConn, yet if you impose your own controls at comparing apples with apples I think it's pretty revealing.
UConn kicks butt in two metrics, leads at a third and holds it own with the top teams at two more. When I say we kick butt in offensive and defensive efficiency I mean we dominate. Our offensive efficiency is stratospherically above Baylor's and Notre Dame's.
The one metric that compares unfavorably is miscues. This metric depends on unforced errors and fouls. Teams like Baylor and Notre Dame have it all over us in regards to this. This data, combined with a season's worth of observations, tells me two things.
We are capable of winning any game handily, even against Baylor and Notre Dame, if we turn around the miscue disadvantages for that particular game. That's a big "if" and is tempered by the probability of us losing close games to these same teams who are more likely to have greater composure and get to the foul line more when crunch time arrives.
Fortunately, our supremacy is so great in the combined metrics outside of miscues as to render that metric meaningless for any games save those against Baylor and Notre Dame .... and perhaps Duke or Stanford if our miscues were particularly bad. That means we only need hope, pray, beg to the gods that we reverse our miscue misfortunes for just a few games ahead.
I think all this relates to us having perhaps the shakiest lead guard situation since we've started winning championships. Even in the recent lean years Montgomery was yet a good lead guard. I expect this misfortune to turn around next year with Jefferson becoming the one and only lead guard driving the bus. For now we must hope, pray and beg to the gods.
UConn kicks butt in two metrics, leads at a third and holds it own with the top teams at two more. When I say we kick butt in offensive and defensive efficiency I mean we dominate. Our offensive efficiency is stratospherically above Baylor's and Notre Dame's.
The one metric that compares unfavorably is miscues. This metric depends on unforced errors and fouls. Teams like Baylor and Notre Dame have it all over us in regards to this. This data, combined with a season's worth of observations, tells me two things.
We are capable of winning any game handily, even against Baylor and Notre Dame, if we turn around the miscue disadvantages for that particular game. That's a big "if" and is tempered by the probability of us losing close games to these same teams who are more likely to have greater composure and get to the foul line more when crunch time arrives.
Fortunately, our supremacy is so great in the combined metrics outside of miscues as to render that metric meaningless for any games save those against Baylor and Notre Dame .... and perhaps Duke or Stanford if our miscues were particularly bad. That means we only need hope, pray, beg to the gods that we reverse our miscue misfortunes for just a few games ahead.
I think all this relates to us having perhaps the shakiest lead guard situation since we've started winning championships. Even in the recent lean years Montgomery was yet a good lead guard. I expect this misfortune to turn around next year with Jefferson becoming the one and only lead guard driving the bus. For now we must hope, pray and beg to the gods.
