What the future holds

[NH Husky]

I’ve seen tons of stuff regarding media market size/share. I decided I’d take a look at a simple metric: Population within 100 miles of P4 schools (plus us)
I used the statsamerica.org site.
Top 25
1 Rutgers 29.78M
2 UCLA 19.23
2 USC 19.23
4 Northwestern 13.08
5 UConn 12.78 (does not include NYC boroughs)
6 Maryland 12.77
7 Cal 12.35
8 Notre Dame. 12.35
9 Stanford 11.86
10 Texas A&M 10.46
11 UCF 10.18
12 Mich St 9.83
13 SMU 9.68
14 Ga Tech 9.64
15 Georgia 9.62
16 BC 9.46
17 Baylor 9.39
18 Cincinnati 9.38
19 TCU 9.34
20 Houston 8.58
21 Michigan 8.51
22 Wake Forest 8.05
23 Ohio St 7.29
24 Florida 7.26
25 Miami 6.89

12 of 23 (less us and ND) have punched there P4 ticket since 2012.

Other brand factors (plus/neutral/minus) include; State/Flagship vs Private (Financial support), Regional rivals/Other P4’s in radius, Regional sports culture (NYC has 60 hs with football versus Texas with over 1500), School/Alumni size, Other viewing competition (pros, nightlife, etc), and Misc (ie religion, military, etc), History. I see many pluses/neutrals for UConn above. In addition to the obvious no. 5.
7 other P4 tickets were punched, BYU (also rep 18M Mormans), 4 Corners (convenience?), OR/WA (1/2 price plus partners for UCLA/USC), Mizzou, TX, OK were lateral.

I suspect some of the previous alignment nonsense will eventually be resolved when sports specific conferences and tiers are establish to maximize brand factors. Following the division model of pros, For example Six regional Tier one football conferences (Northeast, Southeast, South, Midwest, Southwest, West) with 60 or 72 teams.

I think when the dust settles UConn will be fine. We just seem to be very well positioned.

 

[jostar1]

I’ve seen tons of stuff regarding media market size/share. I decided I’d take a look at a simple metric: Population within 100 miles of P4 schools (plus us)
I used the statsamerica.org site.
Top 25
1 Rutgers 29.78M
2 UCLA 19.23
2 USC 19.23
4 Northwestern 13.08
5 UConn 12.78 (does not include NYC boroughs)
6 Maryland 12.77
7 Cal 12.35
8 Notre Dame. 12.35
9 Stanford 11.86
10 Texas A&M 10.46
11 UCF 10.18
12 Mich St 9.83
13 SMU 9.68
14 Ga Tech 9.64
15 Georgia 9.62
16 BC 9.46
17 Baylor 9.39
18 Cincinnati 9.38
19 TCU 9.34
20 Houston 8.58
21 Michigan 8.51
22 Wake Forest 8.05
23 Ohio St 7.29
24 Florida 7.26
25 Miami 6.89

12 of 23 (less us and ND) have punched there P4 ticket since 2012.

Other brand factors (plus/neutral/minus) include; State/Flagship vs Private (Financial support), Regional rivals/Other P4’s in radius, Regional sports culture (NYC has 60 hs with football versus Texas with over 1500), School/Alumni size, Other viewing competition (pros, nightlife, etc), and Misc (ie religion, military, etc), History. I see many pluses/neutrals for UConn above. In addition to the obvious no. 5.
7 other P4 tickets were punched, BYU (also rep 18M Mormans), 4 Corners (convenience?), OR/WA (1/2 price plus partners for UCLA/USC), Mizzou, TX, OK were lateral.

I suspect some of the previous alignment nonsense will eventually be resolved when sports specific conferences and tiers are establish to maximize brand factors. Following the division model of pros, For example Six regional Tier one football conferences (Northeast, Southeast, South, Midwest, Southwest, West) with 60 or 72 teams.

I think when the dust settles UConn will be fine. We just seem to be very well positioned.

That's what Endeavor is telling the Big 12 Presidents.

 

[CTBballfan243]

The future is not ours to see Qué será, será

 

[Viet Vet]

Not enough of those 12.78M sets of eyeballs will watch a losing (and boring) team.

 

[Zissou]

Nova would be 31.4M

 

[NH Husky]

Nova would be 31.4M

St John’s is up there too. Maybe that’s why they’ve been mentioned as basketball only adds.
They are privates. Of course the school has to decide if big time college athletics is in sync with their core values (ie Columbia or Princeton).

 

[NH Husky]

Not enough of those 12.78M sets of eyeballs will watch a losing (and boring) team.

Call it unrealized potential. Thats where the AD’s objectives and performance comes into play. Like Rutgers or Northwestern versus Alabama or Florida State. Look at a 100 radius of Tallahassee- maybe that’s why B1G is in no rush to get them.

 

[NH Husky]

That's what Endeavor is telling the Big 12 Presidents.

I hope you’re right. That would make UConn and Ga Tech attractive adds. Even to the B1G.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

St John’s is up there too. Maybe that’s why they’ve been mentioned as basketball only adds.
They are privates. Of course the school has to decide if big time college athletics is in sync with their core values (ie Columbia or Princeton).

You may be the first to ever place St John's in the same conversation as Columbia and Princeton

 

[superjohn]

Nova would be 31.4M

Are you including the entire NYC metro and the entire state of New Jersey? Lolz

 

[NH Husky]

Are you including the entire NYC metro and the entire state of New Jersey? Lolz

When I ran them I used the tool on statsamerica.org. Enter a location and radius.
Storrs radius grabs part of NYC metro but not boroughs. Hartford (Rent location) would include and bump UConn to no 2.
There also are limitations for how finely locations can be picked.
The point originally made was to show school to school relative populations.
I randomly picked 100 miles feeling it’s a reasonable distance to drive for a weekend event.

 

[Slasher]

Are you including the entire NYC metro and the entire state of New Jersey? Lolz

I also don't see why Temple wouldn't be on the list if the criteria were the same.

 

[NH Husky]

I also don't see why Temple wouldn't be on the list if the criteria were the same.

I just looked at UConn and P4 schools. Temple, Memphis, USF, etc alumni can perform their own analysis if they wish.
As I pointed out, with Columbia for example, being located in a large metro area does not mean that the institution has the means or desire to invest in football to achieve P4 inclusion.
UConn apparently has done a ROI evaluation and determined they would like to P4 inclusion - again apparently, thus requiring Board approval.

 

[Zissou]

I also don't see why Temple wouldn't be on the list if the criteria were the same.

Temple and Nova are 10 miles apart so they have essentially the same 100 mile radius population.

 

[Zissou]

Are you including the entire NYC metro and the entire state of New Jersey? Lolz

Just use the word referenced 100 mile radius tool. It’s easy. It does include NY/NJ

 

[superjohn]

I also don't see why Temple wouldn't be on the list if the criteria were the same.

Temple, Nova, St. John's, Fordham, Seton Hall etc. biggest media markets. They should all get invited to the Big 10 and Big 12. DePaul is another enormous media market, they should get the invite too! Marquette as well.

 

[Nostical]

I'm not so sure the sky is falling. I understand UConn joining the BIG 12 is (has become) an important component in several Private Equity proposals being presented to Yormark. They see UConn providing the BIg 12 ("Allstate 12") with an important presence and opportunity for promotion in the highly populated Northeast. Adding value to their investment is a PE firm's objective #1 and once the ancillary issues that caused the current pause are resolved (not likely till mid 2025) I believe the reality of UConn joining the BIG 12 will be more a question of when, not if. Football will be a big part of it and an on-campus stadium likely imperative.Thus, it behooves the school to push for significant improvements in the program over the next few years. Funding resources will of course be the big challenge.

UConn is also seen as an upgrade in the academic standing of the conference. There's a big difference between the ACC and BIG 12 in that regard--and a past reason (before survival) to have favored the ACC. Here are the 2024 rankings of all ACC and BIG 12 schools. As you can see, UConn would automatically be by far the highest ranked BIG 12 University.


US NEWS RANKING 2024

NATIONAL UNIVERSITIES

ACC SCHOOLS—Not Bold

BIG 12 SCHOOLS—BOLD

Stanford 3

Duke 7

Cal Berkeley 15

North Carolina 22

Virginia 24

Georgia Tech 33

Boston College 39

Virginia Tech 47

Wake Forest 47

Florida St 53

UConn 58

North Carolina St 60

Miami FL 67

Pittsburgh 67

Syracuse 67

Clemson 86

SMU 89

Baylor 93

TCU 98

AZ St 105

Colorado 105

Iowa St 115

Arizona 115

BYU 115

Utah 115

UCF 124

Houston 133

Cincinnati 142

Kansas 151

Kansas St 170

Okla St 185

Louisville 195

Texas Tech 216

West Va 216

 

[NowInStorrs]

Call it unrealized potential. Thats where the AD’s objectives and performance comes into play. Like Rutgers or Northwestern versus Alabama or Florida State. Look at a 100 radius of Tallahassee- maybe that’s why B1G is in no rush to get them.

Maybe but Tallahassee would do alright in a list of schools by # of dolphins within a 100 mile radius.

 

[champs99and04]

As you can see, UConn would automatically be by far the highest ranked BIG 12 University.

Unfortunately, I think this ends up working against UConn rather than in its favor. The Big 12, by contrast, has a lot working against it but one pretty significant thing going for it: uniformity. Every decision since Texas and OU left has been with the same shared values in mind. It's a lot like the Big East in that regard.

The ACC, on the other hand, has long been a bumbling mess of separate interests pulling the rope in different directions, and as a result it risks losing teams to the Big 12 despite a significant edge in overall prestige and brand appeal.

 

[ZooCougar]

Brand>market

 

[Hoophound]

Unfortunately, I think this ends up working against UConn rather than in its favor. The Big 12, by contrast, has a lot working against it but one pretty significant thing going for it: uniformity. Every decision since Texas and OU left has been with the same shared values in mind. It's a lot like the Big East in that regard.

The ACC, on the other hand, has long been a bumbling mess of separate interests pulling the rope in different directions, and as a result it risks losing teams to the Big 12 despite a significant edge in overall prestige and brand appeal.

If ESPN wants UConn in the B12, does that mean they don’t want us in the ACC? If so, why not?

My guess would be that the B12 needs exposure in the northeast megalopolis. The ACC already has it. I’m guessing they intend to let the ACC go and realize that UConn is now the premier brand in the Northeast. I wouldn’t feel good about this if I were Cuse or BC. Granted, I don’t like our position either. It seems big time college sports in the Northeast are in danger, especially if we don’t find our way in somewhere.

 

[NH Husky]

I'm not so sure the sky is falling. I understand UConn joining the BIG 12 is (has become) an important component in several Private Equity proposals being presented to Yormark. They see UConn providing the BIg 12 ("Allstate 12") with an important presence and opportunity for promotion in the highly populated Northeast. Adding value to their investment is a PE firm's objective #1 and once the ancillary issues that caused the current pause are resolved (not likely till mid 2025) I believe the reality of UConn joining the BIG 12 will be more a question of when, not if. Football will be a big part of it and an on-campus stadium likely imperative.Thus, it behooves the school to push for significant improvements in the program over the next few years. Funding resources will of course be the big challenge.

UConn is also seen as an upgrade in the academic standing of the conference. There's a big difference between the ACC and BIG 12 in that regard--and a past reason (before survival) to have favored the ACC. Here are the 2024 rankings of all ACC and BIG 12 schools. As you can see, UConn would automatically be by far the highest ranked BIG 12 University.


US NEWS RANKING 2024

NATIONAL UNIVERSITIES

ACC SCHOOLS—Not Bold

BIG 12 SCHOOLS—BOLD

Stanford 3

Duke 7

Cal Berkeley 15

North Carolina 22

Virginia 24

Georgia Tech 33

Boston College 39

Virginia Tech 47

Wake Forest 47

Florida St 53

UConn 58

North Carolina St 60

Miami FL 67

Pittsburgh 67

Syracuse 67

Clemson 86

SMU 89

Baylor 93

TCU 98

AZ St 105

Colorado 105

Iowa St 115

Arizona 115

BYU 115

Utah 115

UCF 124

Houston 133

Cincinnati 142

Kansas 151

Kansas St 170

Okla St 185

Louisville 195

Texas Tech 216

West Va 216

I agree wholeheartedly.
The sky is not falling and never will. If there’s money to be made, and there’s plenty here, a wise someone will come in and pounce on it.
My only difference is I think it’s the ACC that’s more of a question of when, not if. I’m sure private equity proposals are being made to the ACC as well. Here’s a few thoughts.
Millions of NE, NY, NJ, & PA folks are retiring / moving to the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida. And I’m not talking about the Deep South areas of those states. Meanwhile, plenty of ACC grads seek lucrative jobs in the Northeast. Increasing fan interest for home and away games.
Basketball is undervalued. And it’s much more in the high school sports culture of urban areas versus football in rural areas. And it’s less costly to invest in (think ROI).
Yormark is trying to convince Southwest and Great Plains schools they should put their teams on NYC tv sets. Their fan bases could care less. Would we want to give up something to put UConn games on Phoenix or Denver tv sets? East Coast teams absolutely like the idea of NYC exposure.
UConn’s football program would likely be competitive much faster (like old BE). If UConn and BC could put their past differences aside they’d realize they could create an interesting rivalry across all sports. Half my floor in Belden was MA students. The Battle for New England. And with the Patriots down, fans looking for competitive football would have another option.
Basketball dominance? Old Big East rivals Nova, Georgetown, St John’s, plus Gonzaga and Marquette could be added to Notre Dame as basketball onlies. Conference: 24 teams with (4) six team divisions and 18 football with (2) nine team divisions. Best basketball conference by a mile.
Also, I’m not convinced UNC and UVA are headed to the B1G. They don’t fit the profile of B1G most recent adds and increased revenue (probably short term) would not offset their brand damage by being perennial cellar dwellers. Even Penn State fans question their move. And FSU and Clemson may be in for a rude awakening. Their profiles are more in line with the SEC’s and I don’t see that happening.
The Big 12 is looking like a Franken-conference much like the initial AAC. Lacking vision or at least not on board with Yormarks attempt to create one.
The ACC has potential. I still don’t know what CalTex was about but that’s to be seen. I think they may be waiting out what happens with FSU Clemson and what other stuff B12 does before acting.
We don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes but I’d sure love for something close to above happen. I thinks it’s very wise for UConn leadership to patiently navigate through this process and not cave in to desperate reaction.
Bottom line. Biggest markets, biggest brand, savage rivalries.

 

[NH Husky]

If ESPN wants UConn in the B12, does that mean they don’t want us in the ACC? If so, why not?

My guess would be that the B12 needs exposure in the northeast megalopolis. The ACC already has it. I’m guessing they intend to let the ACC go and realize that UConn is now the premier brand in the Northeast. I wouldn’t feel good about this if I were Cuse or BC. Granted, I don’t like our position either. It seems big time college sports in the Northeast are in danger, especially if we don’t find our way in somewhere.

There will always be an appetite for big time sports in the Northeast. Whether pro or college. With the current Patriots slump the opportunity exist now to provide for the Fall season.
I just don’t think that appetite would be fed by the B12’s Game of the Week - Utah vs Iowa St

 

[Bongo Fury]

I'm not so sure the sky is falling. I understand UConn joining the BIG 12 is (has become) an important component in several Private Equity proposals being presented to Yormark. They see UConn providing the BIg 12 ("Allstate 12") with an important presence and opportunity for promotion in the highly populated Northeast. Adding value to their investment is a PE firm's objective #1 and once the ancillary issues that caused the current pause are resolved (not likely till mid 2025) I believe the reality of UConn joining the BIG 12 will be more a question of when, not if. Football will be a big part of it and an on-campus stadium likely imperative.Thus, it behooves the school to push for significant improvements in the program over the next few years. Funding resources will of course be the big challenge.

UConn is also seen as an upgrade in the academic standing of the conference. There's a big difference between the ACC and BIG 12 in that regard--and a past reason (before survival) to have favored the ACC. Here are the 2024 rankings of all ACC and BIG 12 schools. As you can see, UConn would automatically be by far the highest ranked BIG 12 University.


US NEWS RANKING 2024

NATIONAL UNIVERSITIES

ACC SCHOOLS—Not Bold

BIG 12 SCHOOLS—BOLD

Stanford 3

Duke 7

Cal Berkeley 15

North Carolina 22

Virginia 24

Georgia Tech 33

Boston College 39

Virginia Tech 47

Wake Forest 47

Florida St 53

UConn 58

North Carolina St 60

Miami FL 67

Pittsburgh 67

Syracuse 67

Clemson 86

SMU 89

Baylor 93

TCU 98

AZ St 105

Colorado 105

Iowa St 115

Arizona 115

BYU 115

Utah 115

UCF 124

Houston 133

Cincinnati 142

Kansas 151

Kansas St 170

Okla St 185

Louisville 195

Texas Tech 216

West Va 216

I do recall Ned mentioning private equity. Would be nice.

 

[Nostical]

I think it’s the ACC that’s more of a question of when, not if. I’m sure private equity proposals are being made to the ACC as well.

Yes, I hear you and agree that if the ACC does not totally implode, and private equity sees additive value with the addition of UConn, the ACC would be our preferred landing spot—for its logical rivalries—regional landscape —and academic compatibility. Benedict has actually said that in the past but had to pursue the Big 12 after the forays by Yormark provided a glimmer of hope for a landing spot. I remain optimistic that we’ll find a landing spot but we will need to get serious about fixing football which includes pouring resources into it and moving with resolve toward an on- campus stadium.