What Muffet McGraw Did... or Didn't Do

[Wally East]

If McGraw is calculating something called win probability in that moment than I fault her even more. lol

Long-time coaches don't have to do the math. The calculator is there for you and me to statistically prove just how unlikely the comeback was.

1 in 500.

Think about that for a while.

 

[johnnyc]

1 in 500.

Think about that for a while.

Don't have to think too much about it at all. You play to win the game.....

 

[Sonny44]

When I was a kid many years ago popular maxim was: "A good man knows when he's beat". The means or the process is just as important as the end result. Better to lose with dignity as there was no chance they could win. Besides the fact that it gets her out of the building quicker.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Don't have to think too much about it at all. You play to win the game.....

And the Jets know exactly what about that? They haven't had a winning season since 2010, and Edwards had a losing record with the team. Maybe wise to find a better exemplar of the "play until the final buzzer even if you're a bloody pulp and victory can only occur if all the planets align in a Nike swoosh" theory

Sure, as an Eagle Edwards was the beneficiary of a ridiculous last play by the Giants, but that just shows what happens when you play to lose the game to the very end, which the Giants were very good at back then.

 

[Wally East]

Don't have to think too much about it at all. You play to win the game.....

Herm Edwards: 54 wins and 74 losses. I'll pick Muffet's wisdom over his, thanks.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Who else remembers NC State's unlikely run to the NCAAB National Championship in 1983? They always implemented the fouling strategy if they were down late in the game. They sprung several upsets during that tournament; most notably against Houston and Phi Slamma Jamma in the championship game.

 

[alexrgct]

Who else remembers NC State's unlikely run to the NCAAB National Championship in 1983? They always implemented the fouling strategy if they were down late in the game. They sprung several upsets during that tournament; most notably against Houston and Phi Slamma Jamma in the championship game.

Yep- the game's never over. His run through the ACC and the NCAA tourney was not unlike Kemba Walker's UConn squad in 2011. In any event, the excellent 30 for 30 Survive and Advance covers Jimmy V's run in '83. Available on Netflix to any subscriber.

I'm not sure why Muffet didn't try at all, but I was about to have a heart attack had that game been extended. Maybe she was just trying a to save some lives by letting the game end mercifully in favor of the deserving national champions.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Yep- the game's never over. His run through the ACC and the NCAA tourney was not unlike Kemba Walker's UConn squad in 2011. In any event, the excellent 30 for 30 Survive and Advance covers Jimmy V's run in '83. Available on Netflix to any subscriber.

I'm not sure why Muffet didn't try at all, but I was about to have a heart attack had that game been extended. Maybe she was just trying a to save some lives by letting the game end mercifully in favor of the deserving national champions.

For sure, I mean the Reds are 19 games out in the NL Central and Baseball Prospectuts gives them an 0.1% chance of making the playoffs, so if I'm the GM I trade away any future prospects for a will-o'-the-wisp shot at getting in, because fighting to the end against all sense and all odds is the American Way, as we learned from Hoosiers and a bunch of other stories that supposedly come true most of the time. Looking valiant right now is all that matters.

Sure, heap praise on those who those who throw themselves at true 1000-1 odds and who don't mind spitting against a 100-mph wind. Every hundred years or so they run into a team that wants to give them the football to run into the end zone. Don't think any of Geno's teams will be in that category in an NC game, but if you want to think so, whatever.

 

[DaddyChoc]

UConn plays great defense, ND wouldve had to score baskets and hope UConn missed FT's... too much of a gamble. Coach M did the right thing

 

[meyers7]

Hrynko was actually a 69% FT shooter last season, and was 67% for her college career. I have been told by a learned BY poster that you have to shoot 80% to be an acceptable FT shooter

I remember that thread, it gave UCONN 8 (eight) acceptable FT shooters in their history.

 

[CL82]

That game was weird. We really couldn't get separation from them, but I was never particularly worried.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I remember that thread, it gave UCONN 8 (eight) acceptable FT shooters in their history.

Well, yes, and most of us just have very low standards, and UConn would likely have a few more NCs if that lax coach of theirs enforced an "80% FT mark or you don't play" rule. As the learned pundit noted in his defense of the 80% mark, FTs are FREE, so you have no excuse for missing ANY. Personally, I'm always a little wary of free stuff and only accept them more like 60% of the time in recreational play.

 

[Orangutan]

For what's it's worth, as an Irish fan I was happy that McGraw chose not to foul.

Additionally, a few thoughts:
1. What's the scenario for ND to win? Foul. UConn misses, make a 3, foul, UConn misses, make a 3, foul, UConn misses, make a 3. Do all that successfully (and in less than 93 seconds) and you're still down 1!. You still need another foul, more misses and to score again to win.
2. Fouling late when down double digits makes you look delusional, and (in my opinion) like a poor sport.
3. At that point, ND did not want to delay the inevitable. They wanted to be off that court ASAP.

 

[Orangutan]

I also found this strange as in an earlier game that year against DePaul Muffet utilized the foul defense. They were losing by eight points with less then minute and a half left in the game. Notre Dame fouled and DePaul kept missing their free throws which allowed Notre Dame to tie the game and eventually win it in overtime.

Your memory of that game is not accurate. See play-by-play here: http://espn.go.com/ncw/playbyplay?gameId=400588201

The most ND trailed by in the final 90 seconds was 2.

Notre Dame didn't start fouling until 22 seconds left. Hyrnko missed the front end of a 1-and-1 and got her own rebound. Then missed again. Loyd got the rebound and was fouled on the ensuing play. Loyd made both and tied the game. Hrynko drew a foul with 2 seconds left on the next possession, then (with DePaul now in the double bonus) missed both.

The end of overtime was similarly farcical. ND trailed by 1 with 21 seconds left. ND fouled. Rogowski missed both but got the rebound. ND fouled again. Now Hyrnko missed two more but again Rogowski got the board. Hyrnko missed two more and finally Reimer got the rebound. Loyd drew a foul and made the go ahead free throws. As time expired, Hyrnko missed a tough layup attempt and ND (somehow) prevailed.

Very different game from the NC.

 

[Bonpland]

If you make it to the championship game in any sport you don't know if you'll ever be back in the position to win it all again. Muffet's been there the last four of five but there is no guarentee that SC, Baylor, Lousville, UCONN, Tennessee, Duke won't keep her from getting back there in the future.

Dan Marino got to the Super Bowl in his first year in the league and after Miami lost everyone said not to worry he'd be back to try again. Griner arguably the most unique force in WCBB over the last twenty years only got to play for a NC once.

I like Muffet (despite her idiotic statements about Geno). and I think that she'll have ND right there competing for the near future, but she was standing on the sideline with a card to play, a longshot, but a chance, and she looked away and acquiesced.

I'm happy we won, and I'm glad no one got hurt in a mad frenetic scramble in those last 93 seconds, but if I'm rooting for ND I want to see my team diving for the ball, my bigs knocking Stewie down in the paint, my guards fouling anyone who has the rock, and then hoping when we get it back that Jewell hits four or five threes in a minute and a half, and that we walk out of the gym as shockingly as the way that their men did when they stopped UCLA's 88 game winning streak.

Improbable of course, impossible very likely, but I'd rather see my team leave the court bloodied in a twenty point loss than unruffled in a polite ten point defeat.

Maybe Muffet wins three or four more championships, but maybe Davis, Wilson, Durr, Deshields, Collier and the many more to follow keep her from ever standing where she was that night last April when she had a chance to "throw everything she had" at the Huskies, but didn't.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Has anyone commenting here actually looked at the last 1:33 of the game with ND down 10? From the sound of things it appears that a lot of posters think that ND just backed off and started lining up for a run to the locker room, when they should have been bombing the 3s and trying desperately to win the game.

Actually, after Mabry hit the 3 at 1:34 to draw the Irish to 10, they did shoot a bunch of 3s, including two with more than a minute left. MoJeff helped them out by missing a layup with 10 seconds left on the shot clock and later turning the ball over, as UConn did not score for the final 2:38.

So the Irish go 0-3 on the threes that everyone is proposing as the weapon that Loyd and Allen will use to somehow fight the 500-1 odds of making up a 10 point deficit, and meanwhile they hold UConn scoreless for more than 2 1/2 minutes. But yet there are those who say that Muffett just threw in the towel.

Okay, I get that some fans love to see foul-filled fight-to-the-bitter-end conclusions to games, but please tell me how you make up a 10 point lead if your 3-pters don't go down? And why is a coach a spiritless quitter if she sees that the last-minute shots aren't falling for her exhausted players and says enough's enough, you don't have to chase down MoJeff and tackle her? I'm sorry but you just can't will those 4-4 on 3-pters to happen to satisfy your fantasies of a comeback. They just didn't happen.

 

[rvwsleep]

We should have another poll with the following as the litmus test. Was the fact that ND decided not to foul in the last minute the optimal strategy in order to win the game ?
I was ecstatic that they choose not to foul. As slim a chance as they had if they did foul, there was NO chance when they decided to let the clock run.

 

[CocoHusky]

For what's it's worth, as an Irish fan I was happy that McGraw chose not to foul.

Additionally, a few thoughts:
1. What's the scenario for ND to win? Foul. UConn misses, make a 3, foul, UConn misses, make a 3, foul, UConn misses, make a 3. Do all that successfully (and in less than 93 seconds) and you're still down 1!. You still need another foul, more misses and to score again to win.
2. Fouling late when down double digits makes you look delusional, and (in my opinion) like a poor sport.
3. At that point, ND did not want to delay the inevitable. They wanted to be off that court ASAP.

As A fan of WCBB and “occasional” defender of McGraw (it’s a Philly thing) I was disappointed that she chose not to foul primarily because this was the National Championship game -IMO you go down swinging. As much as I was disappointed in the last 1.5 minutes of the game I was more disappointed in her management of the last 6:30 of the NC game. Briana Turner hit a bank shot at the 6:30 mark to bring ND to within 6. That turner shot attempt was the last shot attempt by a ND post player. Even more inexplicably, Turner was subbed out at 5:51 until 4:06 during which time the UCONN lead went from 6 to 11 points. I’m sorry but I’m not taking Turner out of the NC game at that point.

 

[DobbsRover2]

We should have another poll with the following as the litmus test. Was the fact that ND decided not to foul in the last minute the optimal strategy in order to win the game ?
I was ecstatic that they choose not to foul. As slim a chance as they had if they did foul, there was NO chance when they decided to let the clock run.

Not even close. There have been many last minute turnarounds, even last half minute turnarounds that have been fueled by steals and turnovers that probably never would have occurred if the opponent was sent endlessly to the FT line. How are you sure that their is NO chance for ND when eschewing the fouling has been a staple of many late comebacks?

Take guys game, Miami vs VA in 2011 ACC. VA up by 10 with 37 seconds left. Miami hits a 3, 2 missed VA FTs, Miami hits a 3, VA TO, Miami gets a 2, VA TO, Miami ties it with a 2, VA TO, Miami misses at end of regulation but wins in OT. So just one foul and pressure defense in 37 seconds that results in turnovers for a chance to win in regulation.

Now if old Rip Van Hurricane is sleeping at the game and wakes up with 37 seconds to go, he's yelling "Foul on every inbound!" to the Miami coach, and then who knows what happens, and maybe no comeback. So no, NO does not mean NO when talking about comeback opportunities in basketball.

But again, the big difference between 2011 men's Miami and 2015 women's ND is that the Hurricanes went 4-5 in 37 seconds, and the Irish went 0-3 in that last 1:33. Can't come back if you can't score.

 

[DobbsRover2]

And to be fair to Muffet, she did use the "go down fouling" strategy for a while in the 2014 NC when ND was down by just 21 with a little over a minute to play. I guess she decided that fouling was the only salvation, especially with UConn reserves in, and two quick fouls and some misses by Kiah sliced the lead all the way down to 19 with a full 54 seconds to go, and surely anything was possible. But Brianna Banks sliced in for a layup and Muffett wimped out on the fouling the rest of the way. Probably scarred her thinking for 2015, but if teams can make up 10 points in a half minute, surely ND could have made up double that amount in double the time against UConn in 2014, and of course 2015 should have been a piece of cake.

 

[Bestiarius]

It's just realistic.

Here's a basketball win probably calculator. Yes, it's for the NBA but basketball is basketball. With 1:30 left, a 10-point deficit, and the other team having possession, there is a 1 in 500 chance the trailing team will win the game. And that 1 time? It's not going to happen against UConn, is it?

I give her credit for having a sense of the moment and just letting the game end.

 

[Intpseeker]

ND trailed by 8 points at the half. They were further out with a little over 1 minute left. Muffett did the right thing. They could not narrow the gap (8 points) in over 19 minutes, how were they going to get pass UConn in 1+ minute (10 points)?
They were missing everything at the time and it could get real ugly very fast.

But you try, rather than go gracefully. If sports teaches us something, it is to not give up.

She gave up. It is as simple as that.

 

[Intpseeker]

Who else remembers NC State's unlikely run to the NCAAB National Championship in 1983? They always implemented the fouling strategy if they were down late in the game. They sprung several upsets during that tournament; most notably against Houston and Phi Slamma Jamma in the championship game.

"You don't play to win. You play to be in the position to win." Jimmy V

Sorry if this offends, but what is this 'lose with dignity' thinking.

"Don't give up. Don't ever give up." Jimmy V

 

[Goodgood]

But you try, rather than go gracefully. If sports teaches us something, it is to not give up.

She gave up. It is as simple as that.

She didn't give up. She didn't think that fouling was the best way to win. Fouling works only when the other team can't make the FTs and your players can make the three's. Well, ND could not hit 3's and UConn made their FT's. End of story.

 

[DobbsRover2]

But you try, rather than go gracefully. If sports teaches us something, it is to not give up.

She gave up. It is as simple as that.

Wow is this getting silly. So the answer is always just to keep playing no matter what? Forget that custom of dribbling away the last 29 seconds "when the game is won" because lordy lordy the losing team always has a chance if teams can come back from 10 down with 37 seconds to go. Never give up, never give in, never say die, never concede, never throw in the towel, play to the last second, don't surrender, you always have a chance.

Well, no, you don't, and it's ludicrous for a Texas to just start fouling the Huskies down 52 with 2 minutes left because you never say die. Where the point of "cannot come back" is varies according to the circumstances, but it fades to oblivion when you are facing UConn instead of jittery ball handlers and poor FT shooting nervous Nellies. And just because some fans have a clueless notion that you always foul when down at the end of a game even if the team is an excellent shooting FT team, coaches don't have to cater to it. Both John Calipari and Muffet McGraw knew that's a crackhead strategy in recent NC games.

ND never really quit, they just ran out of shots and seconds. And when the outcome is moving towards the inevitable, it's nice to take some moments to honor senior players like KML this year or a McBride and Braker for ND in 2014 with an applauded exit from the floor, even though that might offend the sensibilities of the "fight to the end" fringe.

If sports teaches us anything, it is that you should honor the great efforts by top teams and athletes and not to go calling them quitters if they're just on the short end when the final seconds tick away.