Assuming he comes back, what can we expect from Boat next year? Hopefully he gets better, and without a doubt his role will be different - he will have the ball in his hands more, and with nobody to defer to I suspect he will also be looking to score more. Some of this will be impacted by the makeup of the roster – whether DD comes back, for example, and how effective new guys like Purvis and Hamilton are – but knowing what we know now, what kind of production can we project for Boat? For reference, here are Boat’s numbers from last year:
PPG12.1
RPG3.5
APG3.4
TPG1.9
SPG1.6
FG%0.391
FT%0.798
3P%0.376
The obvious comparisons that first jump to mind are clearly Bazz and Kemba. Height-challenged guards that happened to be absolute studs and fearless leaders who led us to the promised land. It’s way too much to EXPECT Boat to match Napier’s senior year or Kemba’s junior year, but that’s certainly the best case scenario that we can dream about. So let’s start there – here are the stats:
Bazz (SR)Walker (JR)
PPG1823.5
RPG5.95.4
APG4.94.5
TPG2.92.3
SPG1.81.9
FG%0.4290.428
FT%0.870.819
3P%0.4050.33
First off, wow, what an embarrassment of riches at PG! Bazz and Kemba were different players – Kemba for example seemed more explosive athletically and was a better finisher at the rim, whereas Bazz was a better shooter in particular when you consider all those long-range contested threes. But their stats were sort of similar, with Kemba scoring more but Bazz having slightly more rebounds, assists and shooting better % from the line and from 3. Both were crazy good rebounders given their position and stature. Bazz also learned from Kemba and has some similar moves – the step back jumper, throwing your head back to draw the foul, etc. Stylistically, I think of Boat as being more in the mold of Kemba – fast and athletic, but not as good a shooter as Bazz. I don’t think Boat finishes as well as Kemba , and I certainly don’t expect 23 PPG. But he can penetrate at will, and he’s learning to stop and hit that mid-range jumper (he had a beautiful one in the 2nd half on Monday) instead of going to the rim all the time. He’s also a better defender in my opinion. If he can replicate his defensive intensity from the tourney over the course of a season, and if he improves his jump shot even marginally – look out we could have another monster year on our hands. Those are big asks, but not impossible.
Rather than looking at stats from those two legendary seasons, maybe we can learn something from the jumps that Bazz and Kemba made from prior years.
Bazz (JR)Bazz (SO)Walker (SO)
PPG17.11314.6
RPG4.43.54.3
APG4.65.85.1
TPG2.42.82.9
SPG21.62.1
FG%0.4410.3890.403
FT%0.8190.7430.767
3P%0.3980.3550.339
In their last year, both players increased their scoring numbers, Kemba ridiculously. Both increased rebounding by more than 1 per game (Bazz did that 2 consecutive years). Assists and turnovers were both up slightly for Bazz and down slightly for Kemba. Shooting percentages varied. Not much we can conclude from this, except that as Boat takes on more of the load offensively we can expect more points, and probably more assists too since he’ll have the ball so much. Turnovers correlate to having the ball, so it will be hard for Boat to keep the turnovers below 2 like last year. Likewise, shooting percentages are hard to improve with more volume, especially if he’s the guy taking the shot as the clock expires. Kemba did it though.
Another thing that jumped out at me – look how similar Boat’s stats were last year to Sophomore Bazz. Points, boards, steals, shooting %ages are all similar. Bazz had more assists but also more turnovers. So maybe we can expect a jump similar to Bazz’s improvement between Sophomore and Junior, which was significant.
Sorry for so much rambling here. It’s a boatload (get it) of information and random thoughts.
In the end, I predict more points and assists for Boat in ’14-15, perhaps an extra board per game, but also a higher turnover ratio. I can only hope that he improves his shooting percentages (either as a function of even better decision making and/or just working on the jumper in the offseason) so I’ll assume some modest improvement there as well. Maybe it looks something like this:
Boat (SR)
PPG17
RPG4.5
APG4.4
TPG2.6
SPG1.8
FG%0.41
FT%0.825
3P%0.39
Maybe that’s wishful thinking, but that would be a pretty awesome season. Especially if he can also be the defensive stopper that he was in the tourney.
What do you all think?
PPG12.1
RPG3.5
APG3.4
TPG1.9
SPG1.6
FG%0.391
FT%0.798
3P%0.376
The obvious comparisons that first jump to mind are clearly Bazz and Kemba. Height-challenged guards that happened to be absolute studs and fearless leaders who led us to the promised land. It’s way too much to EXPECT Boat to match Napier’s senior year or Kemba’s junior year, but that’s certainly the best case scenario that we can dream about. So let’s start there – here are the stats:
Bazz (SR)Walker (JR)
PPG1823.5
RPG5.95.4
APG4.94.5
TPG2.92.3
SPG1.81.9
FG%0.4290.428
FT%0.870.819
3P%0.4050.33
First off, wow, what an embarrassment of riches at PG! Bazz and Kemba were different players – Kemba for example seemed more explosive athletically and was a better finisher at the rim, whereas Bazz was a better shooter in particular when you consider all those long-range contested threes. But their stats were sort of similar, with Kemba scoring more but Bazz having slightly more rebounds, assists and shooting better % from the line and from 3. Both were crazy good rebounders given their position and stature. Bazz also learned from Kemba and has some similar moves – the step back jumper, throwing your head back to draw the foul, etc. Stylistically, I think of Boat as being more in the mold of Kemba – fast and athletic, but not as good a shooter as Bazz. I don’t think Boat finishes as well as Kemba , and I certainly don’t expect 23 PPG. But he can penetrate at will, and he’s learning to stop and hit that mid-range jumper (he had a beautiful one in the 2nd half on Monday) instead of going to the rim all the time. He’s also a better defender in my opinion. If he can replicate his defensive intensity from the tourney over the course of a season, and if he improves his jump shot even marginally – look out we could have another monster year on our hands. Those are big asks, but not impossible.
Rather than looking at stats from those two legendary seasons, maybe we can learn something from the jumps that Bazz and Kemba made from prior years.
Bazz (JR)Bazz (SO)Walker (SO)
PPG17.11314.6
RPG4.43.54.3
APG4.65.85.1
TPG2.42.82.9
SPG21.62.1
FG%0.4410.3890.403
FT%0.8190.7430.767
3P%0.3980.3550.339
In their last year, both players increased their scoring numbers, Kemba ridiculously. Both increased rebounding by more than 1 per game (Bazz did that 2 consecutive years). Assists and turnovers were both up slightly for Bazz and down slightly for Kemba. Shooting percentages varied. Not much we can conclude from this, except that as Boat takes on more of the load offensively we can expect more points, and probably more assists too since he’ll have the ball so much. Turnovers correlate to having the ball, so it will be hard for Boat to keep the turnovers below 2 like last year. Likewise, shooting percentages are hard to improve with more volume, especially if he’s the guy taking the shot as the clock expires. Kemba did it though.
Another thing that jumped out at me – look how similar Boat’s stats were last year to Sophomore Bazz. Points, boards, steals, shooting %ages are all similar. Bazz had more assists but also more turnovers. So maybe we can expect a jump similar to Bazz’s improvement between Sophomore and Junior, which was significant.
Sorry for so much rambling here. It’s a boatload (get it) of information and random thoughts.
In the end, I predict more points and assists for Boat in ’14-15, perhaps an extra board per game, but also a higher turnover ratio. I can only hope that he improves his shooting percentages (either as a function of even better decision making and/or just working on the jumper in the offseason) so I’ll assume some modest improvement there as well. Maybe it looks something like this:
Boat (SR)
PPG17
RPG4.5
APG4.4
TPG2.6
SPG1.8
FG%0.41
FT%0.825
3P%0.39
Maybe that’s wishful thinking, but that would be a pretty awesome season. Especially if he can also be the defensive stopper that he was in the tourney.
What do you all think?
