What is Your Ranking of the Projected #1 Seeds

[RockyMTblue2]

It's the entire body of work.

UConn has played a slightly tougher schedule. They played better against Baylor than ND did. ND also played close games against Duke, who Uconn beat AT Duke by 16.

ND also lost at home to unranked WV, comparibly worse than UConn's loss to ranked SJU.

I just don't think the Committee will computer formula it the way you have analysed it DD. There is no incentive for them to buck the simple math of 2 wins 1 win ... unless ESPN whispers in their ears UC and Tenn must play potentially and they brackets are such that UC has to be 2 or 3 to make that happen (with Stanford still misplaced as a 2). Heck, it's Sunday night! This is too hard to juggle. BUT it will be sweet when we all crash in with our expert analysis tomorrow night!

 

[JoePgh]

St. John's was NOT ranked when they beat UConn at Gampel. They became ranked after they did that. So the losses are really comparable.

In fact, almost everything is comparable, except ND's 2-1 edge head-to-head against UConn despite the fact that 2 out of 3 games were played on UConn's home court. The committee would have to do logical gyrations to overlook that.

A more debatable issue is whether Stanford should be ranked above either UConn or ND given its lesser strength of schedule. If UConn and ND had lost only to Baylor and to each other, then Stanford would certainly be ranked fourth. But Stanford had no bad losses comparable to WVU or St. Johns (admittedly, they didn't expose themselves to that possibility nearly as often), so I think that will give them the edge over both of the Big East schools.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

St. John's was NOT ranked when they beat UConn at Gampel. They became ranked after they did that. So the losses are really comparable.

In fact, almost everything is comparable, except ND's 2-1 edge head-to-head against UConn despite the fact that 2 out of 3 games were played on UConn's home court. The committee would have to do logical gyrations to overlook that.

A more debatable issue is whether Stanford should be ranked above either UConn or ND given its lesser strength of schedule. If UConn and ND had lost only to Baylor and to each other, then Stanford would certainly be ranked fourth. But Stanford had no bad losses comparable to WVU or St. Johns (admittedly, they didn't expose themselves to that possibility nearly as often) Ah, there is the rub, isn't it! , so I think that will give them the edge over both of the Big East schools. Because they play a weaker schedule??

It just does not add up.

 

[alexrgct]

St. John's was NOT ranked when they beat UConn at Gampel. They became ranked after they did that. So the losses are really comparable.

In fact, almost everything is comparable, except ND's 2-1 edge head-to-head against UConn despite the fact that 2 out of 3 games were played on UConn's home court. The committee would have to do logical gyrations to overlook that.

A more debatable issue is whether Stanford should be ranked above either UConn or ND given its lesser strength of schedule. If UConn and ND had lost only to Baylor and to each other, then Stanford would certainly be ranked fourth. But Stanford had no bad losses comparable to WVU or St. Johns (admittedly, they didn't expose themselves to that possibility nearly as often), so I think that will give them the edge over both of the Big East schools.

Although I would rank ND ahead of UConn at this point, I have to provide the following counter-arguments:

1. I'm pretty sure DD was referring to St John's being ranked NOW, not when the two teams first squared off. Given that their ranking for an entire season's work is more accurate than the "at the time" ranking, it's a legitimate point. Both RPI and Sagarin have UConn ahead of ND. Massey has ND ahead. I think it's pretty much splitting hairs.

2. Saying Stanford had "no bad losses" isn't a great argument when a) losing to the the #11 RPI (SJU) team isn't a "bad" loss (I'll give you WVU, which sits at #39 in RPI), and b) Stanford has had very little opportunity to lose to a team ranked as high as SJU.

On an RPI basis, here are Stanford's 15 best wins:

1. Tennessee (5)
2. Gonzaga (21)
3. Princeton (23)
4. Cal (30)
5. Cal (30)
6. Cal (30)
7. USC (38)
8. USC (38)
9. Arizona State (63)
10. Fresno State (66)
11. UCLA (72)
12. UCLA (72)
13. Oregon State (82)
14. Oregon State (82)
15. Washington (92)

By contrast UConn's:

1. Stanford (2)
2. Notre Dame (4)
3. Texas A&M (7)
4. Duke (10)
5. St John's (11)
6. Rutgers (13)
7. Rutgers (13)
8. DePaul (20)
9. Lousiville (22)
10. Oklahoma (27)
11. Georgetown (28)
12. Dayton (35)
13. West Virginia (39)
14. Villanova (40)
15. North Carolina (89)

Pretty substantial and telling difference from a body of work perspective. UConn played teams in the top 20 eleven times. Stanford only did twice.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Both being the product of the conferences they are in. I too put Stanford last, for the reasons given, but . . .

Although it does matter for the matchups at the FF (obviously), it is interesting that with the geographic issues involved, and the particular schools involved, it just doesn't matter otherwise. Isn't going to affect who you play until the FF. Why I think the geographic placement (below the 1 seeds) stinks.

 

[triaddukefan]

1) baylor

2) Uconn

3) ND

4) stanford

 

[Icebear]

LOL...I never thought of 1 game as a losing streak.

At UConn one game is a losing streak since we haven't lost 2 in a row since something like 1993.

 

[doggydaddy]

I just don't think the Committee will computer formula it the way you have analysed it DD. There is no incentive for them to buck the simple math of 2 wins 1 win ... unless ESPN whispers in their ears UC and Tenn must play potentially and they brackets are such that UC has to be 2 or 3 to make that happen (with Stanford still misplaced as a 2). Heck, it's Sunday night! This is too hard to juggle. BUT it will be sweet when we all crash in with our expert analysis tomorrow night!

Rocky, my post was in response to our Baylor fan who said "How can one win negate two wins? ND looked flat in that game and the UCONN win was impressive, but I just don't think it outweighs ND's two wins. "

How the committee looks at it? I have no idea and I don't care. I'll just wait for the brackets and react to that.

 

[blkkirk]

In regard to the Stanford vs Baylor match-up. I think Sims would have a field day with Stanford. She is incredibly disruptive on defense. She likewise is extremely hard to deal with offensively. Nneke would match up with Griner one on one and I think hold her own as far as production. A match-up I am hoping to have the opportunity to see.

Baylor will also have an advantage, as mentioned earlier, due to Stanford not having faced the Griner Effect. I still think it would be a very good game with a strong edge going to Baylor.

A great tournament approaches!

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Rocky, my post was in response to our Baylor fan who said "How can one win negate two wins? ND looked flat in that game and the UCONN win was impressive, but I just don't think it outweighs ND's two wins. "

How the committee looks at it? I have no idea and I don't care. I'll just wait for the brackets and react to that.

Sorry I did not pick up on that.

 

[doggydaddy]

Sorry I did not pick up on that.

No problem!

 

[Icebear]

DD, one reason for considering that is that the game at ND went to overtime and was so close. I am not suggesting one does negate two but it is a lot closer than many would assume. These two teams are extremely close on the court.

 

[doggydaddy]

St. John's was NOT ranked when they beat UConn at Gampel. They became ranked after they did that. So the losses are really comparable.

Not really. Before the ND game, WV was getting ONE vote in the AP poll. That made them ranked 39th. Before the UConn game, SJU was getting 24 votes and ranked 29th. AND SJU had some injuries that caused their lower rankings.

In fact, almost everything is comparable, except ND's 2-1 edge head-to-head against UConn despite the fact that 2 out of 3 games were played on UConn's home court. The committee would have to do logical gyrations to overlook that.

So, UConn doing better against both Baylor and Duke is also comparable?

A more debatable issue is whether Stanford should be ranked above either UConn or ND given its lesser strength of schedule. If UConn and ND had lost only to Baylor and to each other, then Stanford would certainly be ranked fourth. But Stanford had no bad losses comparable to WVU or St. Johns (admittedly, they didn't expose themselves to that possibility nearly as often), so I think that will give them the edge over both of the Big East schools.

As someone else posted, SJU was NOT a bad loss.

 

[MilfordHusky]

On an RPI basis, here are Stanford's 15 best wins:

1. Tennessee (5)
2. Gonzaga (21)
3. Princeton (23)
4. Cal (30)
5. Cal (30)
6. Cal (30)
7. USC (38)
8. USC (38)
9. Arizona State (63)
10. Fresno State (66)
11. UCLA (72)
12. UCLA (72)
13. Oregon State (82)
14. Oregon State (82)
15. Washington (92)
.

Interting juxtaposition. An Ivy League team has a higher RPI than the entire Pac-12 except for Stanford. Hmmm!

 

[alexrgct]

Higher academic standards except for possibly Stanford too!

 

[JoePgh]

"...UConn doing better against Baylor and Duke ..."

I think the selection committee makes a conscious attempt NOT to consider anything that has to do with margin of victory or apparent competitiveness in a game. They have to use the objective criteria of wins and losses, and to whom.

Obviously, if Shekinna Smith had missed her 3-pointer or if Bria Hartley's shot had gone down, UConn would be the #2 overall seed and this whole discussion would not occur. So UConn may lose two positions of overall seeding and be forced to play Baylor in the National Semifinals because of a few inches at each end of the court on one particular Saturday. But that's the way the game is played, and that's the way that the seedings are done.

 

[doggydaddy]

"...UConn doing better against Baylor and Duke ..."

I think the selection committee makes a conscious attempt NOT to consider anything that has to do with margin of victory or apparent competitiveness in a game. They have to use the objective criteria of wins and losses, and to whom.

Obviously, if Shekinna Smith had missed her 3-pointer or if Bria Hartley's shot had gone down, UConn would be the #2 overall seed and this whole discussion would not occur. So UConn may lose two positions of overall seeding and be forced to play Baylor in the National Semifinals because of a few inches at each end of the court on one particular Saturday. But that's the way the game is played, and that's the way that the seedings are done.

Again, where was I talking about the selection committee? As I said to Rocky, my post was in response to our Baylor fan who said "How can one win negate two wins? ND looked flat in that game and the UCONN win was impressive, but I just don't think it outweighs ND's two wins. "

If you think you know how the committee looks at things, your crazy? I have no idea and I don't care. I'll just wait for the brackets and react to that.

 

[Stray Cat]

Baylor is obviously the overall #1 seed. What is your ranking of the remaining #1 seeds. All of the remaining #1 seeds probably don't want to be the 4th #1 seed.

There is little doubt that ND will be the overall #2 seed by virtue of beating UConn 2 of 3 in head-to-head meetings. Using the same logic, I feel UConn deserves the #3 overall seed since they defeated Stanford, and the fact, that the Cardinal, really do not have very many quality wins to speak of, the best being over a Tennessee team with issues.

The bigger question is the placement of the number seeds as well as who the #2 seeds will be in each Region. Obviously, Stanford will stay home in the west and UConn will get assigned to RI. Many seem to think Baylor is a lock for Iowa, I am not so sure IF you consider that ND is only 412 from Des Moines vs. 768 miles Raleigh and given how attendance is such an important factor. Baylor is going to have to travel a long way regardless of the location.

Kingston UConn (3), Kentucky, Penn St., Georgia -- The presence the Huskies will help ensure a good turnout...the addition of PSU IF they get their will be a bonus.
Raleigh Baylor (1), Tenn, Miami, Ga Tech -- Banking on the drawing power of UT plus some regional teams only a direct flight away
Des Moines ND (2), Maryland, Delaware, Purdue -- a relatively short trip for well traveling ND & Purdue fans...plus a strong 2-3 combo.
Fresno Stanford (4), Duke, St. John's, Texas A&M -- A very attractive four-some will help tickets sales here

 

[JoePgh]

So it appears that the committee's ranking was Baylor, ND, UConn, and Stanford. Stanford's relatively weak schedule has led it to a likely semifinal match-up with theGreen Team.

I can't even imagine how much the UConn and ND players must look forward to a 4th contest for the second straight year.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk

 

[triaddukefan]

So it appears that the committee's ranking was Baylor, ND, UConn, and Stanford. Stanford's relatively weak schedule has led it to a likely semifinal match-up with theGreen Team.

I can't even imagine how much the UConn and ND players must look forward to a 4th contest for the second straight year.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk

Baylor vs Duke.... UCONN vs Maryland

 

[Icebear]

Baylor vs Duke.... UCONN vs Maryland

Well, you said you didn't want to play UConn again.