Phil
Stats Geek
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2011
- Messages
- 4,446
- Reaction Score
- 5,773
While we have a long nine day wait until the next game, I decided to look at some of the history, to see how small changes might have changed the landscape. We can all think of buzzer beater shots that fell or failed, where a few inches or a small fraction of a second was the difference between a loss and a victory. I’m going to explore different scenarios—for example, what if some games had been played on neutral courts instead of a home court. It rarely makes much difference. UConn beat Idaho 105-37 in a first round game in 2013. It is likely the score would have been different in another venue but not the outcome. However, it is possible to find situations where the outcomes might have been different. This is fiction, so I get to decide what might have happened, but I’ll try to make it plausible.
Setting the scene:
It is 1991. Geno Auriemma is in his sixth season. The UConn team did not qualify for the NCAA tournament in his first three seasons, but has now qualified for the third consecutive year. The NCAA has been awarding the first two rounds to the higher seed, but has decided to try using neutral courts for the second rounds. (This is the fiction element.) When asked to comment, Geno quips sardonically, “We hosted in 1989 and lost on our home court to La Salle, then hosted again last year[1990] and lost to Clemson, so I’m all for trying something else.” Toledo upsets Rutgers in the first round while UConn gets a bye, so UConn will play Toledo in a second round matchup on a neutral court.
In real life, UConn wins the game 81-80, behind a stellar, 39 point performance by Kerry Bascom. If that’s not tight enough for you, it took Dee Kanter deciding to wave off a last second foul called on Wendy Davis, which Kanter decided was after the last second.
How it might have been
What if the game had been played on a neutral court? Home court is traditionally considered worth about three points, so it is easy to imagine that the game could have gone the other way on another court. If UConn loses to Toledo, they do not play in their first Sweet Sixteen. They do not go on defeat North Carolina State to advance to the Elite Eight. They do not defeat Clemson to advance to their first ever Final Four.
They don’t play Virginia in the Final Four, where standout player Tonya Cardoza helps defeat UConn. In that game, she lost her balance, and fell into the bench area, an eerie portend of the future. That incident didn’t cause her to accept a position as assistant, but did playing in the game against a Geno coached team have any influence on the future decision?
How is UConn’s future different if they do not make it to the Final Four. In real life, Geno called it “That night changed everything at Connecticut”. If that game turns out differently, UConn is looking at three consecutive trips to the NCAA without a single win. Maybe Geno feels snake bit and decides to go elsewhere. Or maybe he redoubles his efforts, and in 1992, instead of losing in the second round, the team manages to go on to the Final Four and keep Stanford from their Second National Championship.
I’m not done. What if UConn plays Toledo on a neutral court and still manages to win. That’s certainly plausible. You might be thinking that the rest of the tournament plays out the same way. But not necessarily. The what if scenario is that second round games are played on a neutral court instead of a home court.
Virginia played their second round game, at home against Stephen F. Austin, winning by a slim two points 74-72. What if they play on a neutral court and lose? The next opponent is Oklahoma State, who won in triple overtime at Michigan State, so I’ll assume they win on a neutral court. Whether Oklahoma State or Stephen F. Austin wins, they face tenth seeded Lamar for the chance to go to the Final Four. In my scenario, UConn still wins their game against Toledo, but now plays in the Final Four game against an eight seed, a five seed or a ten seed. Not hard to imagine that they might win that game.
That would set up the first ever match up between UConn and Tennessee. Remember that Tennessee beat Virginia in OT, so it is not hard to image that UConn might win the game. How would that change the future landscape? UConn with a National Championship in 1991. Or lose, and Tennessee wins the NC but UConn now loses a National Championship game and has a losing record to Tennessee. The 1995 Martin Luther King day match up might not even happen, but if it does, the narrative is very different. Not a first time ever match but a return of a grudge match.
Maybe if UConn wins the NC in 1991, they play out the future years a little differently, getting a recruit to come that otherwise turned them down. Maybe they win the first round game against Louisville in 1993, which would make their consecutive games without back-to-back losses even longer, but a win in the same bracket as Tennessee means they might meet up in the 1993 regional Final. Tennessee lost by 16 to Iowa, so it is easy to imagine that had UConn won their first game, they might have made the 1993 Final Four.
All speculation, of course, but not implausible. The entire landscape of women’s basketball might have played out differently if relatively small changes had happened in some of the early years.
Setting the scene:
It is 1991. Geno Auriemma is in his sixth season. The UConn team did not qualify for the NCAA tournament in his first three seasons, but has now qualified for the third consecutive year. The NCAA has been awarding the first two rounds to the higher seed, but has decided to try using neutral courts for the second rounds. (This is the fiction element.) When asked to comment, Geno quips sardonically, “We hosted in 1989 and lost on our home court to La Salle, then hosted again last year[1990] and lost to Clemson, so I’m all for trying something else.” Toledo upsets Rutgers in the first round while UConn gets a bye, so UConn will play Toledo in a second round matchup on a neutral court.
In real life, UConn wins the game 81-80, behind a stellar, 39 point performance by Kerry Bascom. If that’s not tight enough for you, it took Dee Kanter deciding to wave off a last second foul called on Wendy Davis, which Kanter decided was after the last second.
How it might have been
What if the game had been played on a neutral court? Home court is traditionally considered worth about three points, so it is easy to imagine that the game could have gone the other way on another court. If UConn loses to Toledo, they do not play in their first Sweet Sixteen. They do not go on defeat North Carolina State to advance to the Elite Eight. They do not defeat Clemson to advance to their first ever Final Four.
They don’t play Virginia in the Final Four, where standout player Tonya Cardoza helps defeat UConn. In that game, she lost her balance, and fell into the bench area, an eerie portend of the future. That incident didn’t cause her to accept a position as assistant, but did playing in the game against a Geno coached team have any influence on the future decision?
How is UConn’s future different if they do not make it to the Final Four. In real life, Geno called it “That night changed everything at Connecticut”. If that game turns out differently, UConn is looking at three consecutive trips to the NCAA without a single win. Maybe Geno feels snake bit and decides to go elsewhere. Or maybe he redoubles his efforts, and in 1992, instead of losing in the second round, the team manages to go on to the Final Four and keep Stanford from their Second National Championship.
I’m not done. What if UConn plays Toledo on a neutral court and still manages to win. That’s certainly plausible. You might be thinking that the rest of the tournament plays out the same way. But not necessarily. The what if scenario is that second round games are played on a neutral court instead of a home court.
Virginia played their second round game, at home against Stephen F. Austin, winning by a slim two points 74-72. What if they play on a neutral court and lose? The next opponent is Oklahoma State, who won in triple overtime at Michigan State, so I’ll assume they win on a neutral court. Whether Oklahoma State or Stephen F. Austin wins, they face tenth seeded Lamar for the chance to go to the Final Four. In my scenario, UConn still wins their game against Toledo, but now plays in the Final Four game against an eight seed, a five seed or a ten seed. Not hard to imagine that they might win that game.
That would set up the first ever match up between UConn and Tennessee. Remember that Tennessee beat Virginia in OT, so it is not hard to image that UConn might win the game. How would that change the future landscape? UConn with a National Championship in 1991. Or lose, and Tennessee wins the NC but UConn now loses a National Championship game and has a losing record to Tennessee. The 1995 Martin Luther King day match up might not even happen, but if it does, the narrative is very different. Not a first time ever match but a return of a grudge match.
Maybe if UConn wins the NC in 1991, they play out the future years a little differently, getting a recruit to come that otherwise turned them down. Maybe they win the first round game against Louisville in 1993, which would make their consecutive games without back-to-back losses even longer, but a win in the same bracket as Tennessee means they might meet up in the 1993 regional Final. Tennessee lost by 16 to Iowa, so it is easy to imagine that had UConn won their first game, they might have made the 1993 Final Four.
All speculation, of course, but not implausible. The entire landscape of women’s basketball might have played out differently if relatively small changes had happened in some of the early years.