What G5 school will get the 2014 pity bowl invite

[whaler11]

This is a brutal sports weekend so I got a chance to do a lot of college football research.

I don't see a single G5 team with a prayer of making the playoffs. There are a couple of schools with schedules that if all hell broke loose they could qualify by going undefeated - but none of them are going undefeated.

So what I'm pretty much looking for are teams that can run the table. To me going 12-0 is your best shot, unlikely two teams go 12-0 and it would take a pretty solid SOS advantage to get an 11-1 past a 12-0.

Ranking the G5 conferences:
1. AAC
2. MWC
gap
3. CUSA
4. MAC/Sun Belt

Teams I'd say can consider the access bowl bid a realistic goal:

Marshall: The schedule is ridiculously easy. I'd give them a 25-33% chance of running table.

Houston: 12-0? Maybe a 5% chance but 11-1 is in play. Sneaky tough opener with UTSA. At BYU. I'm a bit down on Cinci but they close at Nippert and weather, solid program in play.

ECU: Would probably need no 12-0 team because 10-2 is a tall task. Could leap an 11-1 team on SOS. Need the game at VPI. They can beat Carolina. If they drop both USCe and VPI probably out of running.

Louisiana-Layfayette: I'm pretty high on Ole Miss, that will be a tall order. I love the coach and think they could knock off Boise. Pretty big longshot but the schedule isn't too bad other than that. The road game at Texas State could be a spot they get tripped up.

Utah State: MWC having a championship game makes life more difficult for Boise and the Aggies. Utah State has the biggest ingredient - a quarterback who can go off. Their Superbowl is week 1 at Tennessee. They can overcome that one loss because they get Wake and BYU - but closing at Boise is just cruel from the schedule makers.

Boise: I'm not high on Boise this year. They really weren't that great last year and lose a tremendous coach. I think a rough night in the opener in Atlanta w Ole Miss will be tough to overcome. I think a noon start at Rentschler is brutal for them. The only team that makes list on name.

Bowling Green: The MAC has produced some good teams the last few years - NIU was very solid. More parity in the MAC this year - I think BGSU is the best team in the league. They go to Wisconsin... but get Indiana at home. If they can knock of the Hoosiers they stay alive. The rest is manageable - but crazy stuff happens on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

So I'd pick someone from those 7. If I had to rank them:

1. Houston
2. Marshall
3. Utah State
4. ULL
5. ECU
6. Boise
7. Bowling Green

Others I considered:

This one I don't know but don't think Navy is in play. I'd have them on the list if they were. Their schedule is a joke and if they get past Rutgers 10-2 would be possible and they get Ohio State and Notre Dame in opportunities to impress.

UCF: Tough schedule to open with huge personnel losses. May be best G5 program overall. Think they will get better as season goes along.

Cinci: Can't put my finger on it but don't love them this year. If the kid Kiel lives up to hype could go multiple times in future.

UTSA: Love what Coker has done there. A million seniors and a ton of starters back.

Fresno: Good team. Just can't see it falling into place.

SDSU: Seems like they keep having the same solid season over and over. Just like the Mountain Div teams better. Can't see them winning the champ game even if they beat Fresno to get there.

Anybody high on someone I missed? (Besides UConn, I know they are going 12-0. The only oddsmaker I can find who posted a total on UConn season wins put them at 3.5. I'll make a max over bet if that actually ends up being a number that a book publishes.

 

[CTBasketball]

Hell will freeze over before a G5 team makes the playoff.

 

[whaler11]

John Silver when you read this I promise I didn't see your blog post until after I wrote this. Literally I saw it 5 minutes after.

 

[Dooley]

I don't think any G5 school will get to the playoff. As far as who I think has a shot at running the table outside of the P5, I'd say your list is pretty sound. I really like Utah State and think they have a shot at knocking off Tennessee in week 1. ECU's schedule is ridiculously strong for a G5 school and if they run the table, they'd probably be the only school with a shot at the playoff ONLY if there are no compelling 1-loss teams from the P5. As long as the playoff is decided by selection committee, I foresee the G5 getting the shaft much like the AAC was shafted in the NCAA Tournament seeding this past spring.

 

[UConn17]

You forgot the most obvious choice...?

 

[Dooley]

Oh, and I agree with your max over bet on 3.5 wins. If that's the published line, I will ask a bank for a very large cash advance.

 

[whaler11]

You forgot the most obvious choice...?

I put them in the last paragraph in an attempt to have a legitimate conversation. Yes, I know UConn roolzs and will be 12-0. I imagine the NCAA will invent a rule to keep them out of playoff.

 

[metsfan2323]

I'd put UCF in the mix, at the very least they have great coaching, if they can find a QB they will be good.

 

[CTBasketball]

I'd put UCF in the mix, at the very least they have great coaching, if they can find a QB they will be good.

The committee will never let that happen. Its a 100% human selection committee. Archie Manning would vote for a 8-4 Ole Miss squad over a 12-0 AAC team. That's the way it goes.

And don't be surprised if we see 2 SEC teams in the playoff. Especially if teams from the Big10 and ACC trip up with 1-2 losses.

 

[whaler11]

The committee will never let that happen. Its a 100% human selection committee. Archie Manning would vote for a 8-4 Ole Miss squad over a 12-0 AAC team. That's the way it goes.

And don't be surprised if we see 2 SEC teams in the playoff. Especially if teams from the Big10 and ACC trip up with 1-2 losses.

I'm pretty sure he meant for the access bowl not the playoffs. And of course we'll see two SEC teams more often than not. Most years that's legitimate anyway.

 

[CTBasketball]

I'm pretty sure he meant for the access bowl not the playoffs. And of course we'll see two SEC teams more often than not. Most years that's legitimate anyway.

My apologies.

But even a 12-0 G5 team is trumped by a 11-1 or a 10-2 SEC team.

 

[UConnDan97]

I put them in the last paragraph in an attempt to have a legitimate conversation. Yes, I know UConn roolzs and will be 12-0. I imagine the NCAA will invent a rule to keep them out of playoff.

I was super excited about this thread, but you locked me out of the discussion...twice!!!

In all seriousness, I really think that Houston is going to be the "G5" team to beat. They seem to me to be the only team other than UConn that is most likely to go 12-0 in the regular season...

(yeah, I found a way to work it in!)

 

[whaler11]

My apologies.

But even a 12-0 G5 team is trumped by a 11-1 or a 10-2 SEC team.

Most years it would be deserving. If Marshall goes 12-0 do they deserve a bid?

 

[CTBasketball]

Most years it would be deserving. If Marshall goes 12-0 do they deserve a bid?

Not at all. They're toughest game is against THE Ohio Bobcats. I think most years it is not deserving either - unless that team beats a few of ranked teams (that stayed ranked at the end of the season). Don't get me wrong, I would love to see UConn or UCF make a Playoff/BCS bowl game. But the reality is that the Playoff System created a larger separation between the power conferences and ours.

 

[whaler11]

Not at all. They're toughest game is against THE Ohio Bobcats. I think most years it is not deserving either - unless that team beats a few of ranked teams (that stayed ranked at the end of the season). Don't get me wrong, I would love to see UConn or UCF make a Playoff/BCS bowl game. But the reality is that the Playoff System created a larger separation between the power conferences and ours.

While I agree they would screw a deserving G5 team it's a pretty rare species. One Cincinnati team and a couple of editions of Boise in the last decade are the only teams that would even have an argument.

 

[CTBasketball]

While I agree they would screw a deserving G5 team it's a pretty rare species. One Cincinnati team and a couple of editions of Boise in the last decade are the only teams that would even have an argument.

Agree. Hopefully with Tubberville at Cincinnati he'll attract some attention to the conference. Maybe some more ESPN primetime games since he has a good connection with them.

 

[uconndogs]

That TCU that won the Rose before they joined the B12 may very well have been the best team in the country that year.

 

[LRock34]

If a G5 team can finish undefeated 2 years in a row with a mix of P4 teams on the schedule and a victory over a traditional power in the first BCS game....a team like that will make the playoff after the 2nd undefeated season. I believe that would be fair for a G5 team considering that the powers of the P4 would run through G5 conferences consistently year in and out.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

John Silver when you read this I promise I didn't see your blog post until after I wrote this. Literally I saw it 5 minutes after.

I'm starting to think that you ARE John Silver.

 

[whaler11]

I'm starting to think that you ARE John Silver.

Although we may be the total overlap of people who follow UConn football and enjoy NEC basketball... luckily for him we are separate and distinct.

It was Drew's post that got me thinking about it so maybe it gave him the same thought.

 

[ZooCougar]

I am going to go with Houston on this one.

UCF lost their studs, but they will still be quality. Cincy will be good but Hank Hughes is their DC now. ECU may be surprised at how much better the AAC is compared to CUSA.

 

[SubbaBub]

I'm thinking Whaler should trademark "Pity Bowl" before it becomes a thing.

 

[BlueDogs]

System is rigged. We live in Orwellian times where up is down and down is up. The P5 is systematically driving to create a two tier system designed to control revenue and TV markets. Once money dries up, its a self-fulfilling prophecy with non P-5s having no money to compete. There will not be a G5 invite except when the microscope is on the P5 and politics require they throw a bone to keep the illusion of fairness. What is being done to college athletics is a crime.