What are the quad wins?

[Chosen]

Does anyone know what quad is our victories over Seton Hall and Xavier?

 

[FLDawg16]

It only matters what they’re rank is at the end of the season

 

[SoFla Steve]

They were Quad 2 and Quad 1, respectively.

EDIT: But these can change over time.

 

[VAHuskyFan]

Right now we’re 5-6 in Quad 1 and 6-1 in Quad 2.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Right now we’re 5-6 in Quad 1 and 6-1 in Quad 2.

That must mean some teams moved up. We were 2-6 in Quad 1 (pretty ugly for a team contending for a top 5 seed) a few days ago. Xavier only accounts for 1 of them.

 

[Peacefrog]

Marquette just got back to 30 in NET which is the threshold for a Quad 1 win at home. SJU moved up after their recent win and that away win also moved into Quad 1. Ad in Xavier and that is how we went from 2 quad 1 wins to 5.

Nova and @Creighton are remaining quad 1 opportunities.

 

[Storrs South]

This is the best website for tracking this stuff

Connecticut Huskies Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

 

[VAHuskyFan]

That must mean some teams moved up. We were 2-6 in Quad 1 (pretty ugly for a team contending for a top 5 seed) a few days ago. Xavier only accounts for 1 of them.

Yeah, I saw the 2-6 a few days ago as well. 5-6 is pretty good, but a lot of our Q1 wins are clearly right on the line between Q1/Q2.

 

[auror]

This is the best website for tracking this stuff

Connecticut Huskies Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

Like the NET graph over time feature. It's WILD that we've been between 15 and 18 for a solid 7 weeks. Like Georgetown moved up 11 spots after losing a game. Marquette didn't even play and moved 2 spots. It's not that stable a metric. Our play has been almost exactly as expected for half a season.

 

[Tenspro2002]

This is the best website for tracking this stuff

Connecticut Huskies Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

Creighton, St. John's, Butler, WV, Providence, and Marquette are just barely on the right side of the Quad cutoffs. That helps for now, but could easily change.

 

[wheelerdog]

Creighton, St. John's, Butler, WV, Providence, and Marquette are just barely on the right side of the Quad cutoffs. That helps for now, but could easily change.

Which is why Tuesday is so important.

 

[auror]

Yeah, I saw the 2-6 a few days ago as well. 5-6 is pretty good, but a lot of our Q1 wins are clearly right on the line between Q1/Q2.

Creighton, St. John's, Butler, WV, and Marquette are just barely on the right side of the Quad cutoffs. That helps for now, but could easily change.

Here's our NET quadrant borderline teams:

Xavier #24 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home win Q1.
Providence #27 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home loss Q1.
Marquette #30 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home win Q1.
Seton Hall #36 - Climb into top 30.. Adds a Q1 win.
VCU #58 - Climb into top 50. Adds a Q1 win.
St. John's #66 - Stay top 75. Keeps our road win Q1.
Creighton #67 - Stay top 75. Would make our potential road win Q1 and keep our home loss Q2.
West Virginia #69 - Stay top 75. Keeps our road loss Q1.
St. Bonaventure #86 - Stay top 100. Keeps our neutral win Q2.
Butler #127 - Stay top 135. Keeps our road win Q2.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Here's our NET quadrant borderline teams:

Xavier #24 - Stay top 30.
Providence #27 - Stay top 30.
Marquette #30 - Stay top 30.
Seton Hall #36 - Climb into top 30..
VCU #58 - Climb into top 50.
St. John's #66 - Stay top 75.
Creighton #67 - Stay top 75.
West Virginia #69 - Stay top 75.
St. Bonaventure #86 - Stay top 100.
Butler #127 - Stay top 135.

St. John's is sneaky important for our resume. If they fall off, that trades out a Q1 win for a Q3 (both our Q1 and Q2 wins downgraded).

The Marquette road win is guaranteed Q1, but the home win is in jeopardy of slipping, ditto vs. Xavier.

Beating Creighton on the road would be Q1 if they can hang on otherwise.

 

[auror]

St. John's is sneaky important for our resume. If they fall off, that trades out a Q1 win for a Q3 (both our Q1 and Q2 wins downgraded).

The Marquette road win is guaranteed Q1, but the home win is in jeopardy of slipping, ditto vs. Xavier.

Beating Creighton on the road would be Q1 if they can hang on otherwise.

Yeah I edited in some context. Creighton needs to stay top 75. Difference between Q2 win and Q3 loss and Q1 win and Q2 loss is huge.

 

[Get a Job]

What do y'all think our seeding floor is? I think we could lose out and get a 7 or 6.

 

[USNavyDog]

That must mean some teams moved up. We were 2-6 in Quad 1 (pretty ugly for a team contending for a top 5 seed) a few days ago. Xavier only accounts for 1 of them.

VCU and St. Bonaventure from the Atlantic 10 have been coming on strong of late. Are those two teams enough to be quality wins other than Auburn for non-conference?

VCU is slightly behind Davidson for 1st place and the Bonnie's are in the top 4 of that conference. Yes, A-10 is not the greatest conference, more like the AAC...but I would think both of those teams could be solid wins by the end of the season going into post season play.

 

[7774]

What do y'all think our seeding floor is? I think we could lose out and get a 7 or 6.

We’re a 6 in bracket matrix now. We’re not losing out and getting a 6 or 7.

 

[Get a Job]

We’re a 6 in bracket matrix now. We’re not losing out and getting a 6 or 7.

I guess my logic is that all the metrics have us in the top 20, and we don't have any opportunities for catastrophic losses left. Even a road loss at Georgetown would be our worst loss, and I assume some of the best teams have comparable bad losses.

I dunno. Hopefully we will beat Georgetown and collect a couple other wins and the hypothetical will be moot.

 

[Tenspro2002]

What do y'all think our seeding floor is? I think we could lose out and get a 7 or 6.

If we lose out (very unlikely) we're probably a 9 or 10.

If we win 2 games we're supposed to (Depaul Georgetown), but lose the others (Nova, Creighton, BET 4/5 game), probably a 6 or 7.

 

[USNavyDog]

If we lose out (very unlikely) we're probably a 9 or 10.

If we win 2 games we're supposed to (Depaul Georgetown), but lose the others (Nova, Creighton, BET 4/5 game), probably a 6 or 7.

If we win out, we're probably even as high as a 3 or 4 seed maybe?

 

[storrsroars]

Looks like we lost a Q1 win. We were 5-6 after X win, now 4-6. Marquette dropped from 30 to 33.

 

[businesslawyer]

I think some of you are overemphasizing the records versus various quads. The Committee uses these as a starting point for their analysis, absolutely. But it’s a starting point. The Committee is more than capable of separating teams whose Quad 1 wins and losses are versus top 10 teams versus those whose Quad 1 wins and losses are versus teams at the edge of Quad 1, and the same for “high” Quad 2 wins and losses versus “low” Quad 2 wins and losses.

Is there a material difference between 2-6 in Quad 1 versus 7-6. Almost certainly. But is it really going to matter if, e.g., Marquette finishes 30 versus 32 on the computers? Probably not.

 

[JMick]

I think some of you are overemphasizing the records versus various quads. The Committee uses these as a starting point for their analysis, absolutely. But it’s a starting point. The Committee is more than capable of separating teams whose Quad 1 wins and losses are versus top 10 teams versus those whose Quad 1 wins and losses are versus teams at the edge of Quad 1, and the same for “high” Quad 2 wins and losses versus “low” Quad 2 wins and losses.

Is there a material difference between 2-6 in Quad 1 versus 7-6. Almost certainly. But is it really going to matter if, e.g., Marquette finishes 30 versus 32 on the computers? Probably not.

I think you give these people too much credit

 

[VAHuskyFan]

I think you give these people too much credit

Yeah, agree with this. The committee looks for justifications to do what they want to do. They’ve shown they are willing to seize on individual metrics to justify decisions without any consistent methodology.

If it’s down to us and a team from the Big Ten for the final 4 seed spot and we have a bunch of “high” Q2 wins, pretty sure the Committee will choose to look at those as nothing more than Q2 wins.

 

[auror]

Yeah, agree with this. The committee looks for justifications to do what they want to do. They’ve shown they are willing to seize on individual metrics to justify decisions without any consistent methodology.

If it’s down to us and a team from the Big Ten for the final 4 seed spot and we have a bunch of “high” Q2 wins, pretty sure the Committee will choose to look at those as nothing more than Q2 wins.

From what I can see, the most important criteria, in order:

Average strength of record metrics, average predictive metrics, and then specifically Q1+Q2 record.

This site let's you adjust some metrics to make a top 25 ranking, but can be used to simulate the committee, too. This is the closest I can get:

https://hoop-explorer.com/?domWeight=0&gender=Men&pinDomWeight=0.25&pinQualityWeight=0.5&pinWabWeight=0.5&pinWaeWeight=0.25&qualityWeight=0.4&wabWeight=0.6&waeWeight=1&year=2021%2F22&

UConn as a 6 right now.