What are the point spreads or odds on Friday's Games?

[winlots]

That was just so insensitive! It's true that I didn't glam-up for my avatar photo ...but I could have.

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JAVA: Whoa! In your attempt to glam up, you took one helluva tumble on the haberdashery side of things. From a UCONN cap to THAT mess??? ( :

 

[IWearShoes]

It's a lot easier to post a line when you don't actually have to accept wagers on your analysis. Guys with pocket protectors would soil their linens if a wiseguy wanted to bet a big nickel with them on their numbers.

Bookmakers do use power ratings but pointspreads are both art and science.

The modern day bookmaker is a far cry from the pejorative portrayal of the bet taker as some oleaginous high school dropout wearing a hound's tooth sports jacket and a diamond pinkie ring. More likely, today's bookmaker has graduated college with a degree in race and sports book management, has a working knowledge of mathematics and statistics and boasts significant people skills. He'll have to understand risk management, how to limit liability, how to recognize "steam," identify "beards" and "line-jumpers," and how to "book to faces." He'll know the difference between Theoretical Hold Percentage (THP) and Practical Hold Percentage (PHP), teaser percentages, and how and when to employ the "Ladder Principle."

What's more, raw numbers, such as those offered by Jeff Sagarin and Massey do not assess motivation or public perception, key factors used by the bookmaker in establishing a viable line.

My point was simply to introduce anyone interested to Sagarin if they weren't already aware of him. I'm well aware much more than raw ratings go into Vegas lines, but for lightly bet events the opening lines often closely mirror Sagarin where available, as they do here.

 

[Zorro]

I find it interesting that the o/u on the UConn game is 159 while on the other semi it is 136.

 

[Golden Husky]

My point was simply to introduce anyone interested to Sagarin if they weren't already aware of him. I'm well aware much more than raw ratings go into Vegas lines, but for lightly bet events the opening lines often closely mirror Sagarin where available, as they do here.

Fair enough.

 

[JavaMan]

Looks like Kia scored the 1st point without even stepping on the court.

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[VaConnFan11]

[QUOTE="I don't know where JavaMan got his lines but they're probably not from a Nevada bookmaker. That doesn't mean they're invalid but, if you live in the United States, you're prohibited from wagering through that site.[/QUOTE]

The lines are from s p o r t b e t.com. The line opened at UConn -9 and has now been bet up to UConn -13.

You do realize that thousands, if not millions of Americans still have active off-shore wagering accounts.

 

[Golden Husky]

[QUOTE="I don't know where JavaMan got his lines but they're probably not from a Nevada bookmaker. That doesn't mean they're invalid but, if you live in the United States, you're prohibited from wagering through that site.

The lines are from s p o r t b e t.com. The line opened at UConn -9 and has now been bet up to UConn -13.

You do realize that thousands, if not millions of Americans still have active off-shore wagering accounts.[/QUOTE]

Sure, and the likelihood of the Feds tracking your computer activity, breaking down your door and hauling you off to jail is minimal (we hope) but it is illegal. The Amateur and Professional Sports Protection Act of 1992, banning sports gambling in all but four states, Oregon, Montana, Nevada and Delaware, made that happen. The US Supreme Court will hear an appeal from New Jersey, this year.

The most reliable wagering emporiums, including the UK's "Big Three" of Ladbrokes, the William Hill Agency (called "Hills") and Coral, do not accept betting from Americans. Most other UK books, including Paddy Power, Betfair and Pinnacle, have adopted the same policy.

 

[VaConnFan11]

If I read the law correctly (28 U.S. Code Chapter 178 - PROFESSIONAL AND AMATEUR SPORTS PROTECTION), the person taking the bet in the one at risk. I did not see any mention of the person making the bet.

I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I could be wrong.

 

[RowdyFan]

I don't seem to find Vegas points on these games, but I didn't look very hard. But maybe there's so little betting action because: it's a women's sport/ there is the men's that is drawing so much attention/ people can't get out of path dependency: because UConn has won so often it will certainly win again.

Looking at 538, they give Louisville a 54% chance of beating MissState. Wow, I would have put that the other way.

And I really think giving UConn an 89% chance of beating ND is overly generous. I'd say more like 70-75%. ND played UConn very, very tough last time at Storrs (and even with Lou and Gabby out for much of the game, Z and Meg stepped up so big time that I don't consider the injuries a factor).

2018 March Madness Predictions

Good morning! The Day has UCONN by 12 over ND ...Under/Over is 136 and MISS ST by 2 over LOUISVILLE... Under/ Over is 155

 

[Golden Husky]

If I read the law correctly (28 U.S. Code Chapter 178 - PROFESSIONAL AND AMATEUR SPORTS PROTECTION), the person taking the bet in the one at risk. I did not see any mention of the person making the bet.

I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I could be wrong.

The bettor's risk, when dealing with less established and unregulated venues is not having any recourse if he doesn't get paid. For people with a Jones for gambling, that would be a fate even worse than incarceration. In prison, at least you can bet cigarettes.

C'mon, VaConn, shell out the extra bucks for the Marriot.

 

[Golden Husky]

Good morning! The Day has UCONN by 12 over ND ...Under/Over is 136 and MISS ST by 2 over LOUISVILLE... Under/ Over is 155

Talked to an international bookmaker I know: He said he opened UConn at -12 and hasn't had to move the line, which indicates equal or near equal action on each side. So, given that the sharps usually bet early, unless there's a bunch of late action, 12 looks like a good number.

He opened the total at 159 and, based on a bit more "over" action, has moved it to 159.5. Typically, because gamblers like to parlay the favorite with the "over," a move on the over often is accompanied by a boost on the favorite but that hasn't been the case here...yet.

 

[scubadog]

[QUOTE="I don't know where JavaMan got his lines but they're probably not from a Nevada bookmaker. That doesn't mean they're invalid but, if you live in the United States, you're prohibited from wagering through that site.

The lines are from s p o r t b e t.com. The line opened at UConn -9 and has now been bet up to UConn -13.

You do realize that thousands, if not millions of Americans still have active off-shore wagering accounts.[/QUOTE]
Go to Sports Interaction. Spread is now Miss. St by 2.5 , UConn gone up to 14 pt. favorites

 

[Golden Husky]

The lines are from s p o r t b e t.com. The line opened at UConn -9 and has now been bet up to UConn -13.

You do realize that thousands, if not millions of Americans still have active off-shore wagering accounts.

Go to Sports Interaction. Spread is now Miss. St by 2.5 , UConn gone up to 14 pt. favorites[/QUOTE]

Have you registered with Sports Interaction? If you try to register, and you live in America, you'll get this:

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If our system has wrongly identified you as being located outside of Canada, please feel free to register some identification documents here to have our Security team review the decision.

 

[VaConnFan11]

You can use bovada.