What are the point spreads or odds on Friday's Games?

[bags27]

I don't seem to find Vegas points on these games, but I didn't look very hard. But maybe there's so little betting action because: it's a women's sport/ there is the men's that is drawing so much attention/ people can't get out of path dependency: because UConn has won so often it will certainly win again.

Looking at 538, they give Louisville a 54% chance of beating MissState. Wow, I would have put that the other way.

And I really think giving UConn an 89% chance of beating ND is overly generous. I'd say more like 70-75%. ND played UConn very, very tough last time at Storrs (and even with Lou and Gabby out for much of the game, Z and Meg stepped up so big time that I don't consider the injuries a factor).

2018 March Madness Predictions

 

[oldude]

I see point spreads for all of the men’s games, but nothing for the women. Either there isn’t enough action for bookies to set a line for WBB, or it’s just too hard to do for women’s games.

 

[warbler1055]

I do not always agree with 538. The time I agreed with them on the Oregon-ND game, Oregon lost. But this time I probably will be wrong again, but I think Louisville will blow out MSST. I watched the MSST-SC SEC championship game and just thought that MSST was slow and sloppy with ball handling. Again, I will very disappointed if UConn does not beat ND by at least 15 points. Don't get me wrong, MM is a great coach and ND is an excellent team and they played us close this season.

 

[JavaMan]

As of 11:50 am, Wednesday, Mar. 28

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[BostonCanuck]

I usually take Vegas odds with a grain of salt. Any kind of betting line is really designed to attract the maximum amount of wagers in conjunction with maximizing house take, rather than reflecting the true odds or points-spread of victory.

Personally, I feel like 538 has is about right, at an 89% chance of victory for the Huskies. I think UConn should and would win this game eight plus times out of ten.

 

[BostonCanuck]

As of 11:50 am, Wednesday, Mar. 28

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Nice! I'd bet the Louisville side of that line in a heartbeat!

 

[bags27]

As of 11:50 am, Wednesday, Mar. 28

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Thanks, JavaMan: you are really the supreme master of internet and social media research!

 

[HoopsHoppy]

For what it’s worth, Massey has UConn with an 83% chance of winning and sets the final score at 85-75.

 

[DefenseBB]

Thanks, JavaMan: you are really the supreme master of internet and social media research!

Woe down there nelly! For argument's sake, I think both @HuskyNan and @RockyMTblue2 are in the same stratosphere of internet and social media skills. for all we know is @JavaMan could be a degenerate gambling man, I mean look at that mug shot...yikes, I get we don't want to cross him but...

I jest of course as I appreciate Java, but I would also add we have many members who find and post interesting and diverse articles @Sluconn Husky @vowelguy and @Wbbfan1 who finds all the pre and post game pressers!

Thanks to all of you for enlightening us!

 

[bags27]

Woe down there nelly! For argument's sake, I think both @HuskyNan and @RockyMTblue2 are in the same stratosphere of internet and social media skills. for all we know is @JavaMan could be a degenerate gambling man, I mean look at that mug shot...yikes, I get we don't want to cross him but...

I jest of course as I appreciate Java, but I would also add we have many members who find and post interesting and diverse articles @Sluconn Husky @vowelguy and @Wbbfan1 who finds all the pre and post game pressers!

Thanks to all of you for enlightening us!

Okay, let me rephrase:
Thanks, JavaMan: you are really a supreme master of internet and social media research!

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Woe down there nelly! For argument's sake, I think both @HuskyNan and @RockyMTblue2 are in the same stratosphere of internet and social media skills. for all we know is @JavaMan could be a degenerate gambling man, I mean look at that mug shot...yikes, I get we don't want to cross him but...

I jest of course as I appreciate Java, but I would also add we have many members who find and post interesting and diverse articles @Sluconn Husky @vowelguy and @Wbbfan1 who finds all the pre and post game pressers!

Thanks to all of you for enlightening us!

Everyone is being so helpful lately, I'm more or less taking the week off, to the great pleasure of many I'm sure. Real reason: flu has me pretty flat.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I don't seem to find Vegas points on these games, but I didn't look very hard. But maybe there's so little betting action because: it's a women's sport/ there is the men's that is drawing so much attention/ people can't get out of path dependency: because UConn has won so often it will certainly win again.

Looking at 538, they give Louisville a 54% chance of beating MissState. Wow, I would have put that the other way.

And I really think giving UConn an 89% chance of beating ND is overly generous. I'd say more like 70-75%. ND played UConn very, very tough last time at Storrs (and even with Lou and Gabby out for much of the game, Z and Meg stepped up so big time that I don't consider the injuries a factor).

2018 March Madness Predictions

That last game was pretty freaky; hard to know what to do with it. First 5 minutes may just be the brawl of the century.

 

[DefenseBB]

That last game was pretty freaky; hard to know what to do with it. First 5 minutes may just be the brawl of the century.

I wonder if anyone has the insight on the Ionescu/Mabry scuffle as we saw Sabrina "bump" into Mabry and then the flop onto the floor that caused Jackie Young to land on top of Marina resulting in her head hitting the floor. I didn't record the game as I am sure there were multiple points of chippyness by Marina (it's in her nature) and I recall a couple earlier in the game. Does anyone have the game recorded or recall how that mess got started?

Marina plays with an "edge" and has many traits similar to Muffet with a "chip on the shoulder" aspect that makes her tick and be super successful, though, at times it is not becoming. I recall her an KLS getting into it a few times.

 

[bags27]

I wonder if anyone has the insight on the Ionescu/Mabry scuffle as we saw Sabrina "bump" into Mabry and then the flop onto the floor that caused Jackie Young to land on top of Marina resulting in her head hitting the floor. I didn't record the game as I am sure there were multiple points of chippyness by Marina (it's in her nature) and I recall a couple earlier in the game. Does anyone have the game recorded or recall how that mess got started?

Marina plays with an "edge" and has many traits similar to Muffet with a "chip on the shoulder" aspect that makes her tick and be super successful, though, at times it is not becoming. I recall her an KLS getting into it a few times.

I think Kia dissed her pretty effectively.

 

[nyfanofwbb]

I wonder if anyone has the insight on the Ionescu/Mabry scuffle as we saw Sabrina "bump" into Mabry and then the flop onto the floor that caused Jackie Young to land on top of Marina resulting in her head hitting the floor. I didn't record the game as I am sure there were multiple points of chippyness by Marina (it's in her nature) and I recall a couple earlier in the game. Does anyone have the game recorded or recall how that mess got started?

Marina plays with an "edge" and has many traits similar to Muffet with a "chip on the shoulder" aspect that makes her tick and be super successful, though, at times it is not becoming. I recall her an KLS getting into it a few times.

It wasn't an intentional bump, one of those caught her as she ran by her. Marina flopped for the foul (which she didn't get) and fell back over Young. The ref's reviewed it and nothing became of it.

 

[nyfanofwbb]

I think Kia dissed her pretty effectively.

You can watch the replay on the ESPN watch App if you're in the tri-state area.

 

[Golden Husky]

For what it’s worth, Massey has UConn with an 83% chance of winning and sets the final score at 85-75.

Not worth much. Analytics aren't the same as pointspreads which have a sole purpose of generating an equal or near-equal amount of wagering on each side. The pointspread is not an indication of what bookmakers believe will be the final margin. In fact, having a game "land" on the pointspread usually means a book gets "sided" or, worse, "middled" on the game.

Nevada sports books are in business to make money so bookmakers are reticent to post lines on things where their knowledge is suspect...such as women's college basketball. International bookmakers, especially those located in the UK--actually, for tax purposes, most of them have their legal residence in Gibraltar--are far more enterprising and willing to accept wagers not just on sports but on just about anything, including the names given to newborn Royals, what color hat the Queen will wear at a given event, whether there will be recorded snowfall in a number of capital cities on Christmas day, election results, et al.

I don't know where JavaMan got his lines but they're probably not from a Nevada bookmaker. That doesn't mean they're invalid but, if you live in the United States, you're prohibited from wagering through that site.

 

[Los24]

I do not always agree with 538. The time I agreed with them on the Oregon-ND game, Oregon lost. But this time I probably will be wrong again, but I think Louisville will blow out MSST. I watched the MSST-SC SEC championship game and just thought that MSST was slow and sloppy with ball handling. Again, I will very disappointed if UConn does not beat ND by at least 15 points. Don't get me wrong, MM is a great coach and ND is an excellent team and they played us close this season.

I will only be disappointed if they lose. No style points this time of year. Win and move on! I also would not discount the experience, grit and talent of both ND players and Muffet.

If UConn is on its game I think it can turn into a 20 point win, but I can see it within single digits late if we are off our game and ND is hot.

 

[JavaMan]

...for all we know is @JavaMan could be a degenerate gambling man, I mean look at that mug shot...yikes, I get we don't want to cross him but...

That was just so insensitive! It's true that I didn't glam-up for my avatar photo ...but I could have.

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[IWearShoes]

I do not always agree with 538. The time I agreed with them on the Oregon-ND game, Oregon lost. But this time I probably will be wrong again, but I think Louisville will blow out MSST. I watched the MSST-SC SEC championship game and just thought that MSST was slow and sloppy with ball handling. Again, I will very disappointed if UConn does not beat ND by at least 15 points. Don't get me wrong, MM is a great coach and ND is an excellent team and they played us close this season.

I would encourage you to increase your sample size to more than MSU's worst game of the season and see if you come away more impressed. They are a pretty solid ball handling team. 3rd fewest TO's per game in D1.

 

[IWearShoes]

As of 11:50 am, Wednesday, Mar. 28

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If you're interested in the most likely source of these lines, bookmakers use Sagarin's Predictor rating extensively this deep into a season. Just subtract the lower team's rating from the higher and voila, instant point spread. ND may be getting a point or two because of proximity to Columbus...

Women's College Basketball 2017-2018 Div I games only through games of 2018 March 23 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.75] [ 2.72] [ 2.86] [ 2.86]
1 Connecticut = 114.88 34 0 78.07( 37) 11 0 | 14 0 | 114.84 1 | 114.93 1 | 114.70 1
2 Baylor = 106.87 33 2 79.82( 18) 9 2 | 15 2 | 107.15 2 | 106.52 2 | 103.05 4
3 Mississippi St. = 102.43 35 1 78.22( 34) 10 1 | 15 1 | 102.33 3 | 102.57 3 | 102.91 5
4 Notre Dame = 101.15 31 3 83.38( 1) 10 3 | 20 3 | 100.85 4 | 101.58 4 | 104.29 3
5 Louisville = 100.24 35 2 80.62( 12) 9 2 | 18 2 | 99.74 5 | 101.03 5 | 106.62 2
6 Oregon = 99.24 32 4 80.71( 10) 9 4 | 15 4 | 99.12 6 | 99.22 6 | 100.78 7
7 Texas = 97.29 28 7 81.99( 5) 7 6 | 12 7 | 97.34 7 | 97.43 7 | 95.27 10
8 UCLA = 95.40 27 7 83.22( 4) 5 7 | 14 7 | 95.15 8 | 95.89 8 | 97.27 8
9 South Carolina = 93.45 28 6 79.85( 17) 5 5 | 11 6 | 92.99 12 | 93.80 9 | 100.82 6
10 Oregon St. = 93.33 26 7 79.75( 20) 6 6 | 9 7 | 93.09 10 | 93.38 10 | 96.86 9

My sketchy forum skills make this a jumbled mess, but I made the ratings red. Here's the link...

The Jeff Sagarin/CBN Women's College Basketball Ratings | RPIRatings.com

Notice the accuracy of the Top 10. All of the Elite Eight are here and the other two were in the Sweet Sixteen.

 

[DefenseBB]

It wasn't an intentional bump, one of those caught her as she ran by her. Marina flopped for the foul (which she didn't get) and fell back over Young. The ref's reviewed it and nothing became of it.

Umm, I am not so sure of that. I definitely saw some bumping going on earlier between the two that wasn't called and Sabrina has pretty good body control when going through the lane that leaving for the other end, she could have turned just a wee bit to truly avoid her. I don't fault Sabrina as that "bumping" is definitely part of Mabry's game. It was the right call to make and let them play on but the shenanigans on the sideline with Mabry pointing to her bruised head on her flog was slightly irritating...Just play the damn game...

 

[Golden Husky]

That was just so insensitive! It's true that I didn't glam-up for my avatar photo ...but I could have.

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Like Uncle Leo (yes, another Seinfeld reference) the man is an Adonis.

 

[Vowelguy]

As of 11:50 am, Wednesday, Mar. 28

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Whoa, an over/under of 159 !

 

[Golden Husky]

If you're interested in the most likely source of these line, bookmakers use Sagarin's Predictor rating extensively this deep into a season. Just subtract the lower team's rating from the higher and voila, instant point spread. ND may be getting a point or two because of proximity to Columbus...

Women's College Basketball 2017-2018 Div I games only through games of 2018 March 23 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.75] [ 2.72] [ 2.86] [ 2.86]
1 Connecticut = 114.88 34 0 78.07( 37) 11 0 | 14 0 | 114.84 1 | 114.93 1 | 114.70 1
2 Baylor = 106.87 33 2 79.82( 18) 9 2 | 15 2 | 107.15 2 | 106.52 2 | 103.05 4
3 Mississippi St. = 102.43 35 1 78.22( 34) 10 1 | 15 1 | 102.33 3 | 102.57 3 | 102.91 5
4 Notre Dame = 101.15 31 3 83.38( 1) 10 3 | 20 3 | 100.85 4 | 101.58 4 | 104.29 3
5 Louisville = 100.24 35 2 80.62( 12) 9 2 | 18 2 | 99.74 5 | 101.03 5 | 106.62 2
6 Oregon = 99.24 32 4 80.71( 10) 9 4 | 15 4 | 99.12 6 | 99.22 6 | 100.78 7
7 Texas = 97.29 28 7 81.99( 5) 7 6 | 12 7 | 97.34 7 | 97.43 7 | 95.27 10
8 UCLA = 95.40 27 7 83.22( 4) 5 7 | 14 7 | 95.15 8 | 95.89 8 | 97.27 8
9 South Carolina = 93.45 28 6 79.85( 17) 5 5 | 11 6 | 92.99 12 | 93.80 9 | 100.82 6
10 Oregon St. = 93.33 26 7 79.75( 20) 6 6 | 9 7 | 93.09 10 | 93.38 10 | 96.86 9

My sketchy forum skills make this a jumbled mess, but I made the ratings red. Here's the link...

The Jeff Sagarin/CBN Women's College Basketball Ratings | RPIRatings.com

Notice the accuracy of the Top 10. All of the Elite Eight are here and the other two were in the Sweet Sixteen.

It's a lot easier to post a line when you don't actually have to accept wagers on your analysis. Guys with pocket protectors would soil their linens if a wiseguy wanted to bet a big nickel with them on their numbers.

Bookmakers do use power ratings but pointspreads are both art and science.

The modern day bookmaker is a far cry from the pejorative portrayal of the bet taker as some oleaginous high school dropout wearing a hound's tooth sports jacket and a diamond pinkie ring. More likely, today's bookmaker has graduated college with a degree in race and sports book management, has a working knowledge of mathematics and statistics and boasts significant people skills. He'll have to understand risk management, how to limit liability, how to recognize "steam," identify "beards" and "line-jumpers," and how to "book to faces." He'll know the difference between Theoretical Hold Percentage (THP) and Practical Hold Percentage (PHP), teaser percentages, and how and when to employ the "Ladder Principle."

What's more, raw numbers, such as those offered by Jeff Sagarin and Massey do not assess motivation or public perception, key factors used by the bookmaker in establishing a viable line.