Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 4833747, member: 12088"] Oooh, I love "[B]hypothocizing[/B]"! I'm right there with you on this speculation. Maybe I begin by comparing UConn's chances to tOSU's last year. They looked great early on, then went into a swoon when Sheldon was out, and finally made a run to the Elite 8, but could go no further. Their style of play is different, of course, but the path looks similar, and by the end they were running that press playing 5 for most of the game -- talk about conditioning! Then they ran into VPI and one little, high energy pg was enough to upend their chances. I know, others on VPI played well, but it was really about Aamoore almost single-handedly defeating the press. So assuming we run the regular season table except for SC -- remember this means beating ND, too -- and head to the tournament with only 4 losses. That's a respectable record, though the team's weak spots will be apparent to the seeding committee. Last season, Dorka and Aaliyah were playing like gang-busters and Lou was heroic if a bit hobbled, and we'd just gotten a rusty, still recovering Azzi back and opposing teams worried about when she'd find her form and explode. What we didn't have was enough guard depth and Azzi never quite turned the corner in her comeback. If Azzi had comeback to her early season form -- if an incipient ACL injury wasn't lurking in her knee -- I think we'd have had as good a chance as Iowa to take the title, if not better. Will only 4 losses be enough for the committee to give us a #1 seed? I don't think so unless others have tanked their seasons. I expect UCLA to dominate the PAC12 with Stanford Colorado and Utah trailing them. SC is a lock for a #1 seed. The committee wasn't willing to give LSU a #1 seed last season and if SC pounds them in conference play, they probably won't this season either. That means the other two #1 seeds could go to someone from the ACC, Big10 or the Big 12. So, Iowa, Indiana, Texas, NC St, VPI. Any or all of these teams could take a couple more losses. In fact, I half expect it for Iowa, Texas and NC St. But even if NC St takes 3 or 4 losses in conference play, they still beat us, so I think we lose that comparison. Same for Texas. And it's always possible that Stanford could get the last #1 seed before us even if they take 3 losses in conference. A decisive win over ND would help us out a lot in such a comparison. And once we get to the tournament, what is possible? This season UConn is [B]deep[/B] at guard and thin in the front court, so almost a reverse situation to last year. Geno always says you win titles with post play, but I'm not sure he's always right about that. Last season, the post-dominant teams lost and guard play took the title. I think we could conceivably beat SC -- once. But I don't see us doing it twice, And UCLA can be beaten, too. But I just don't see us making a title run if we have to face too many of these big-post teams in March. It's too high a hill to climb for our freshman, especially if Paige and Aaliyah wear themselves out in getting us there. If, on the other hand, SC and UCLA fall in upsets before we have to play them, we could well beat any other team in the country. I don't put anything past Paige's combination of grit and magic. Besides, that's how LSU won it last season. But the more likely scenario is that SC plays UCLA or some other 'big' team for the title. [/QUOTE]

Verification: First name of men's bb coach

Forum statistics

Threads: 164,444

Messages: 4,396,576

Members: 10,209

Latest member: gemini*trvl