Week 3 Gambling

[Jerry1714]

Looking at Duke +9, Bowling Green +3, Tenn +28, UK +14.

Already locked in Bama -7

 

[whaler11]

I feel like I've been burned by Duke a million times in that spot. I can't quit betting on them.

I haven't had much time yet but tonight TCU -3 as long as it doesn't tick over that number.

 

[UConn07]

http://ghandination.blogspot.com/2013/09/college-football-picks-week-3.html

 

[john2153]

Lot of dogs barking this week:

Bowling Green +3
Ohio +8
Colorado +8
Boston College +13.5
Rice -6
Auburn -6
Arizona St -5

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

If I wasn't a UConn fan....that MD -6 looks awful good.

I like Texas A&M as an 8 pt dog.

 

[sportsart]

If I wasn't a UConn fan....that MD -6 looks awful good.

I like Texas A&M as an 8 pt dog.

So gamblers brought the -7 or -8 spread to -6? What do they know that we don't know?

 

[whaler11]

I still see 7 for Maryland with my guy. I'm really surprised there are 6s popping up.

 

[Durks07]

If I wasn't a UConn fan....that MD -6 looks awful good.

The line opened at MD -7 and was bet down to -6. Even more interesting, 78% of the tickets (number of bets) are on MD. This means that even though only 22% of the bets are on Uconn, they are for more money total than the MD bets.

Call me a dreamer, but I like Uconn in this spot. MD is overvalued (probably at this point anyway). They beat two weak opponents and haven't been "exposed" yet. The public bettors are looking at Uconn and seeing the loss to an FCS team and reacting simply to that. However, MD played worse competition (according to the Sagarin ratings) than Uconn:

Uconn (84): lost to Towson (87)
Maryland (53): beat FIU (154) and ODU (142)

The ratings don't suggest Maryland is a great team either. As a point of reference, North Dakota State is rated ahead of Maryland (ND St. is ranked as the 50th best team in CFB).

I'm picking Uconn (despite my fear that the coaches have lost the team, they won't play well, and fail to make adjustments). I'm going to ride a few trends and game-specific conditions:

1) Uconn is at home in a night game against the hated Randy Edsall. Even if the coaches have lost the players, they are motivated for this game. More so, the fans are motivated. FHCRE is one of the most vilified human beings on this board, and the stadium will get loud. It will be the only game where we hate the opponent as much, if not more, than the current coaches. There is real meaning to this game for the fans, and the atmosphere will reflect it (I hope).

2) Betting Trends probably favor Uconn here: Uconn is 4-1 ATS in last five games following a double-digit loss at home, 3-1-1 in the last five against the ACC, 7-3 against their last ten opponents with a winning record, and finally, 39-18-1 in the last 58 games following a straight-up loss. The overall takeaway: Uconn responds (in Vegas-world at least) following a poor performance. There are negative trends as well, such as going 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, but with the environment specific to this game, I don’t think those trends are as predictive.



Good luck to my fellow degenerates!

 

[whaler11]

The issue in backing UConn is there is a chance they can't cover the receivers at all and get torched. Over 7 I'd consider them. No way at 6.

 

[whaler11]

UConn trends that include Edsall are worthless. He was a gambling gold mine. Predictable. Trying to predict P's teams is nearly impossible.

 

[Durks07]

The issue in backing UConn is there is a chance they can't cover the receivers at all and get torched. Over 7 I'd consider them. No way at 6.

I can't fault you there. To be honest, I won't be surprised by any result in this game. I wish I got the line earlier, but I think the line is probably correct now. Hypothetically speaking, if MD and UConn swapped schedules, Uconn (assuming they don't do Uconn things) is 2-0, and MD is 1-0 after struggling to get through the game. Uconn probably opens -3 or -3.5 for Saturday's game. At +6, there is less value, but remembering that one of the few games Uconn won last year was against MD on the road, I expect a similar motivation coupled with a hostile environment to have an impact. Also, just worth noting: there is still pressure on Randy to perform. His job isn't safe, and losing to Uconn turns the heat up higher on him, especially with WVU and the ACC slate still to come. Lose here, and a winning record is not certain. A 6-6 record after the past two disaster seasons might cost Randy his job. He knows it too.

When the fans are into the game, Rentscheler becomes a tough environment to play in, and I expect the overall trend to continue (the overall malaise aside for one week at least).

 

[Durks07]

UConn trends that include Edsall are worthless. He was a gambling gold mine. Predictable. Trying to predict P's teams is nearly impossible.

I can solve the riddle: Predict ineptitude and cash in! There have to be odds somewhere on who the first coach to be fired is. Hmm....

 

[Dooley]

This from a guy who would be in the red after last week (1-3), but I like:

BC +14 @ USC
@Cal +15 tOSU
@Nebraska -3 UCLA
@Texas A&M +8.5 Bama

 

[whaler11]

Wk 1 boise
Wk 2 florida
Wk 3 boston college

 

[john2153]

That reverse line movement definitely favors Uconn and all the forums I have read are predicting a blowout, so I definitely like us from that point of view. And if there is 1 game all year where the players are really going to be motivated, it's this one.

But I still can't get past the fact Towson whipped us all over the field and on both lines. I think we will play better but I don't know if I can take Uconn at +6. Gun to my head I'd go MD by 10-14 but really wouldn't be surprised by anything.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I know what whaler is saying about BC, but this will probably be the last time Lane Kiffin ever gives 2 touchdowns. I have to take the points.

 

[Kgun7]

I like wisconsin and UCF ... then again, what the hell do i know ...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Went against Oregon once. I won't take a big spread against them again, because it is meaningless. Don't pick against the Ducks unless you think they are going to lose outright.

My picks:

BC +14
Wake -2.5
UCF +5
Oregon State +3
South Alabama +7.5
UTEP -4

 

[whaler11]

I'm up a decent amount YTD. Here's my attempt to give it back:
Rutgers u 52
Wvu o58
Mich o 59.5
Duke o57
Ore o 73.5
UConn o 47.5
Neb o 71.5
ASU o 55.5
Bama u 61

Ecu +8.5
Maryland -7
Neb -3
USC -13.5
ISU +2
Memphis +9.5
Vandy +14.5
Cal +15.5
Purdue +19.5
Fordham +21

 

[Dooley]

I agree with the UCONN/MD over 47.5. I'm getting pretty nervous thinking bout Hank Hughes' sit-back D against their skill positions. I hope our O comes ready to play tonight.

 

[Srqhusky]

Calling it tennessee with the points

 

[Srqhusky]

Calling it tennessee with the points

And biston college.

 

[Jerry1714]

Uconn is down to 4.5

 

[john2153]

Now down to Maryland -4 on the offshore site I frequent.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I never bet for or against my own team. It is taking every ounce of self-control to stick to that rule.