Week 11 Top 25 Games Jan 24-29 (plus a few others) | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Week 11 Top 25 Games Jan 24-29 (plus a few others)

In a match up with WAC implications, Cal Baptist looks to avenge their only loss of the month and are currently leading SFA.

The Lancers got off to a very slow start this season but in a tribute to both coaching and cohesion they've really pulled it together and are picking off the teams ahead of them in the standings. After defeating the Antelopes earlier this month it appears that Cal Baptist will also take down Stephen F Austin putting Cal Baptist in second place one game behind SUU, setting up a big showdown on February 28th in Cedar City.

The Lancers laid 48 on their opponent in the first half and with over half the third quarter gone have hit 11 of 18 threes.
 
A few really big games today, games that will sort out who's who, so to speak:

Duke-FSU and ND-NC St in the ACC -- this is the main chance for FSU and NC St to prove they belong in "the conversation."

and in the Pac 12, UCLA-Utah -- they're ranked closely (8-9 in the AP) but each one of them holds the promise to something higher.
 
tOSU suddenly in free fall w/ 3 straight losses. Purdue with a couple big wins recently.
 
And NC State gets a big win against Notre Dame. This ACC race could get interesting down the back stretch.
 
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triaddukefan said:
I've said before, this years team is not last years team. No way in heck are we fading like last year. For starters, we play tenacious defense. Looking at the massey numbers, last year we finished 45 in terms of defense. We are currently at 2. This years team is deeper, tougher, and every one is locked in and on the same page in terms of how Lawson wants to play. Coach alluded some of that in her most recent radio show.

We have 9 regular season games left. I expect us to go to Greensboro with a 22-7 record at worst, 24-5 at best. I think winning one game in the tournament will clinch us as a host in the NCAA's.

I repeat. THIS TEAM IS NOT GONNA GO IN THE TANK.

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nwhoopfan said:
tOSU suddenly in free fall w/ 3 straight losses. Purdue with a couple big wins recently.
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Just checking their schedule, what looked like a decent OOC with TN ranked 5 and Louisville ranked 18 and then Oregon ranked 18 no longer looks so special with all three out of the rankings now. It leaves them with only one win against a currently ranked team - Michigan at #13.
 
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Former UConn scholie offer finalist Paulina Paris having a huge game for North Carolina today. She has six 3's and 20 points with 5 steals.
 
At this point in the season, the 20+ games point, the polls mean nothing and it's all about NET. Right now, even most of today's losers are still likely on the top 4 lines of the S curve. Arizona and UCLA fell out of the top 25, but they can probably still manage a #7 or #8 seed
 
Does Utah move up to a 2 seed and Oregon move up from a 7 seed to a 6 seed? Oregon’s Net before today was a 14, but Charlie had them as a 7 seed on Friday.
 
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dabears17 said:
Does Utah move up to a 2 seed and Oregon move up from a 7 seed to a 6 seed? Oregon’s Net before today was a 14, but Charlie had them as a 7 seed on Friday.
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Why do the computers love Oregon so much every year? They are 5-5 in conference, they are mediocre. 2 years ago I couldn't figure out why all the formulas had them ranked so high as they kept losing to every good team they played. It's weird.
 
nwhoopfan said:
Why do the computers love Oregon so much every year? They are 5-5 in conference, they are mediocre. 2 years ago I couldn't figure out why all the formulas had them ranked so high as they kept losing to every good team they played. It's weird.
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Net ranking is only one of 14 factors the committee takes into account when seeding teams. That is why Charlie is seeding Oregon as a 7 seed even though the Net has them ranked 14.

 
I think it’s more complicated than just a bunch of factors. NET is the primary factor, but it is a crude instrument early in the season because of the way it calculates SoS. But late in the season it becomes much more precise. For example, LSU has a high NET ranking that is probably not an accurate measure of how good they are as a team. By the end of February, however, NET rankings will give a better picture of team quality.

Charlie departs from NET now because it isn’t accurate enough yet. So he supplements it with “eye test” judgments. Even so, he still has LSU as a #2 seed which strikes me as too high. When the committee makes its final decisions, they are not required to follow NET exclusively. But this tool will be accurate enough that it won’t be as necessary to supplement it as it is now. Also, the main motivation for looking beyond NET is because geographic considerations (like not placing too many teams from one conference in the same region or sub-region) will require it.
 
nwhoopfan said:
Why do the computers love Oregon so much every year? They are 5-5 in conference, they are mediocre. 2 years ago I couldn't figure out why all the formulas had them ranked so high as they kept losing to every good team they played. It's weird.
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I second your question. They have only won two games against Quad one teams. They have lost 6 games. That gives them a dismal minus four Quad one record. They do not deserve to be ranked.

By contrast, Columbia U has 5 wins against Quad One teams and only 3 losses. For a plus 2 quad 1 record. They are not top 25 in any ranking
 
If I wanted to be sarcastic, I would say the Net is giving Oregon sympathy points for not hanging a banner for finishing #1 in the Massey in 2020;).

AP had Oregon unranked last week, coaches had them ranked 23rd, but this morning the Net still has Oregon ranked 14th and Massey has them ranked 20th. Charlie had them a 7 seed last Friday. Some folks still like RPI, which moved Oregon up from 35 to 34 after their loss yesterday.

Though RealTimeRPI has Oregon at 34 and Warren Nolan’s calculation of RPI has them at 43, so what is the real RPI?

Some folks claim the Big East is just as strong as the PAC12 this year, but the Net has the PAC ranked 1 and the Big East is 6th according to Nolan.

Someone claimed yesterday the polls mean nothing and it’s all about Net now. I’m just trying to point out Net is probably the starting point the committee uses as a first sort, but the other 13 factors they use are needed to have more accurate seedings. A system that treats a win against the 29th ranked team the same as one against the 3rd ranked team is imperfect.
 
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dabears17 said:
Someone claimed yesterday the polls mean nothing and it’s all about Net now. I’m just trying to point out Net is probably the starting point the committee uses as a first sort, but the other 13 factors they use are needed to have more accurate seedlings. A system that treats a win against the 29th ranked team the same as one against the 3rd ranked team is imperfect.
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That was me, and I share your doubts about NET, and your sense of the need for other factors. It is imperfect. But it is the primary tool they use, as I read the “rule book.” You could call that “the starting point,” but if the committee departs too far from it, they risk being accused of partiality.

On the other hand, they have to depart from it, not because it’s imperfect, but because the seedings are not simply about rankings. They have to avoid matching conference opponents against each other too soon, and avoid geographic problems. I think — just guessing here — this is their primary reason for introducing other measures, including the dreaded “eye test.”

Also, imperfect as NET seems now, it will seem less so at the end of February. LSU will have found a spot somewhat more plausible and closer to reality in the NET by then.

Last season, the committee had UConn as a #2 seed in the Hartford region. This was a compromise (lower seed, home region) between their likely suspicion that we were better than appearances up to that moment, and the more real accomplishments of a team like NC St. Events showed this to be a reasonable compromise. A sign of it is how much complaining about it there was on all sides afterwards.
 
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UConn was definitely a problem for the committee last year. Everyone knew UConn was likely a #1 seed, but Paige hadn’t played enough to know how much she would contribute. This year UConn’s record compared to other teams should get then the #2 or #3 #1 seed.

Though, there is analysis that in the NBA the home court advantage is 2.16 to 4.25 points. Does UConn make it to the Final Four last year if they play NC State in Spokane or Wichita?
 
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