We can go deep if these 3 things happen

[OkaForPrez]

There are 12 pre-tournament cut lines that tend to indicate a National Champion:

1. 4 Seed or Better (Ha!)
2. Ken Pom top 25
3. Top 25 Adj 0 KP
4. Top 40 Adj D KP
5. 3 PT % > 35%
6. Top 90 in Offensive Rebounding %
7. Opp Two pt % < 42%
8. Opp Free Throw Rate <31%
9. Front Court Player averaging >12 PPG
10. 4 Players in Double Figures
11. Head Coach has been to a sweet 16
12. Win RS or Conference Title

Gonzaga fits 11 of these this year.
Illinois and Virginia 10.
Michigan, Houston 9.

We can't do anything about our seed, conference tournament or head coach having not been there before.

We do well on the KP and defensive/rebounding metrics, so where do we fall short?

1. We don't shoot the three well enough.
   1. We're at 33.6% on the season, below the 35% cut line.
   2. The solution here of course is we need Super Tyler to catch fire. Whoever did that super sayain Kevin Ollie back in '14 needs to get on a Tyler Polley version stat.
2. We foul too dang much
   1. 36.9% FT Rate for our opponents vs. the 31% cut line.
   2. We're better than we were early in the season but we still haven't found the sweet spot between our aggressive defense and fouling. We need the Dre's, Zay's and Adama's to keep our opponents off the stripe. In Adama's case that's doubly important because...
3. We don't have a frontcourt player averaging 12 PPG or more
   1. Adama avg. 7.5 PPG this season, but he's put up 16, 10, 14 and 13 in his last four games. He's blossoming into that player that all NC teams seem to have. Could he be this year's X factor Daniels?

Fix those three things and we look the part of a title contender. Get hot shooting, watch the fouls, feed the big fella.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Good analysis. I like the stat line selection.

Numbers 2 and 3 we seem to have improved as the year went on. Our style of play results in more fouls. I think we will be alright even if we foul a bit more than the average team. In terms of front court play, Adama was not getting as much PT back in January, even without foul trouble. You are spot on in highlighting the last four games. I expect more of the same Saturday.

Which brings us to 3P shooting. The x-factor in my opinion. Bouknight and Cole will get their looks. Tyrese doesn't have to take any outside shots and can be effective in the slasher/rebounder role. The sweetest thing in the world is watching a Tyler Polley 3 go through the net. If he shoots 40%, I think we will make a run.

 

[HuskyBoi]

This year's Daniels is Tyrese. We need him on offense to make any run. Even just 10 points a game will go a long way

 

[Huskybass]

Adama avg. 7.5 PPG this season, but he's put up 16, 10, 14 and 13 in his last four games. He's blossoming into that player that all NC teams seem to have. Could he be this year's X factor Daniels?

Great post. Point 3 is pretty much moot now. Sanogo is absolutely a worthy big man. Great to be able to say that for a freshman.

Simply put, I think we need 5 things to make a deep run:

Bouk has to be Bouk;
Polley has to step up and be an assassin;
D like I know we can;
Control the boards reasonably well;
Hit free throughs at a high rate

That's a lot to ask, but each one is fairly reasonable.

 

[ZenConn]

This year's Daniels is Tyrese. We need him on offense to make any run. Even just 10 points a game will go a long way

More like a mini Daniels. Daniels was skilled and a very good shooter. He was a matchup nightmare because of his height and length during the tournament that teams couldn't really match up against until playing against Adrian Payne of Michigan State.

Martin doesn't create any matchup problems at this point either with his size or his skill. His value at this point will need to come off of incredible energy and hustle. His body language also needs to be better when things aren't going well.

 

[Huskyfan4evr]

Thank you for the analysis. I think with the way we play defense fouls will happen. I think we need to find a way to be in the 75ppg to make a run. I always look at Bouk/Cole they need to produce around 35 points. Sanogo/Whaley 20. That's leaves the rest to produce 20. Its going to be hard to keep some of the higher seeds to below 70. 3 point shooting will be a key as well as making our foul shots. Rebound like we can.

 

[HuskyBoi]

More like a mini Daniels. Daniels was skilled and a very good shooter. He was a matchup nightmare because of his height and length during the tournament that teams couldn't really match up against until playing against Adrian Payne of Michigan State.

Martin doesn't create any matchup problems at this point either with his size or his skill. His value at this point will need to come off of incredible energy and hustle. His body language also needs to be better when things aren't going well.

Oh for sure. Two very different players on offense. In terms of impact, Tyrese needs to match Daniels.

 

[Huskybass]

More like a mini Daniels. Daniels was skilled and a very good shooter. He was a matchup nightmare because of his height and length during the tournament that teams couldn't really match up against until playing against Adrian Payne of Michigan State.

Martin doesn't create any matchup problems at this point either with his size or his skill. His value at this point will need to come off of incredible energy and hustle. His body language also needs to be better when things aren't going well.

Martin's resolve reminds me of Bazz though. Nobody wants it more.

 

[Hurleyman216]

If Martin and Polley combined can give us 18-20 ppg and Cole and Sanogo play like they have been the past month we will be tough to beat.

 

[connVA]

Great post. Point 3 is pretty much moot now. Sanogo is absolutely a worthy big man. Great to be able to say that for a freshman.

Simply put, I think we need 5 things to make a deep run:

Bouk has to be Bouk;
Polley has to step up and be an assassin;
D like I know we can;
Control the boards reasonably well;
Hit free throughs at a high rate

That's a lot to ask, but each one is fairly reasonable.

Also need Cole to have his A-game. Bouknight pulls a disappearing act (offensively) for 10-15 min of every game and we need Cole to step in. Even if Bouknight isn't doing anything offensively, he's still a fantastic decoy (as evidenced by the Marquette injury game).

 

[CTMike]

And Carlton needs to play 40 minutes. Scoreboard.

 

[the Q]

I think 4 is too high. Needs to be closer to 20z