We are NOT an 8 seed | Page 3 | The Boneyard

We are NOT an 8 seed

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The math used by the bracket experts appears to broken. Probably not enough games for it to work well. More specifically, not enough out of conference games.

The math based bracket experts say we are an 8 seed. Maybe a 7.

The opinion based experts are starting to rate us as 7, 6 and sometimes 5. I kinda feel like the only reason they are not consistently discussing us as a 4 and a 5 is they cannot get past the math that still says we are an 8.

I'm very curious how this tournament shakes out. Could be epic fail by the prediction experts.
 
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HuskyHawk

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Recent bias is not supposed to be considered, nor is how they looked without bouk.

I want to be a 6. I read that the Bottom half of the bracket is statistically more likely to have a longer Cinderella run since they avoid that killer one seed the longest

Yes it is. In seeding, not in the in vs not in decision. There is a long history of considering both in seeding.
 
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I think the biggest issue with seeding UConn is that the team on paper and what we have seen on the floor is significantly better than what the resume supports. Hoping for that 6 seed though.
 

nelsonmuntz

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One thing that would have helped our resume is more wins. One way to get more wins is to play more games.
 
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Did you think we were going to out score them by 27 again and win by 50? Yeah they outscored us by 11 but also hit a bunch of circus threes and we clearly let up. Despite their scoring we kept it in the 20-24 point range until the last like minute
There is a chasm between +27 and -11. I don't like to see a team let up THAT much. If you do that against a better team, you lose. Excellence is a habit. If you don't want to do it against a good team, don't do it against a crappy team
 
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Just like last year before the shutdown Hurley has the team firing on all cylinders at the right time.
Looking forward to seeing what this team can do tournament time.
I remember another Uconn team being looked at as a bubble team prior to to the big East tournament in recent history.
 
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Here’s one interesting way to look at this. The book I use currently has 14 teams with better odds to win the championship than us, and we are tied with 4 other schools with the same odds. That means that puts us at a 4-5 seed for the tournament. I think that’s about right especially if we win the BET.
 

Dream Jobbed 2.0

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There is a chasm between +27 and -11. I don't like to see a team let up THAT much. If you do that against a better team, you lose. Excellence is a habit. If you don't want to do it against a good team, don't do it against a crappy team
They had a 2 And-1s and a traditional 3 in the last minute to outscore us 9-2 in that stretch with all our starters out. It really wasn’t as bad as you think.
 

pepband99

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One thing that would have helped our resume is more wins. One way to get more wins is to play more games.

Maybe the Westchester Knicks were available?
 
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There is a chasm between +27 and -11. I don't like to see a team let up THAT much. If you do that against a better team, you lose. Excellence is a habit. If you don't want to do it against a good team, don't do it against a crappy team
Actually, if you go +27 and -11 against any team you win 100% of the time. It's pretty simple math
 

g_smith

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Yes. We were. The first and only.

There was 1 8 seed before us and 1 six seed before us. And both were in the 1980s in the first 4 years of the seedings.

That's rare. To win a title, you want to be a 1-3 seed, as they've won 31 of the 35 post expansion titles.

And most impressively, to win it as a 7 seed, we had to beat the 1, 2, 3 seeds to make it to the final.

but one could argue we deserved better than a 7 seed because the AAC got shafted by the selection committee. With the same season the BE we were likely a 3 or 4.
 
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Actually, if you go +27 and -11 against any team you win 100% of the time. It's pretty simple math
What is also pretty simple is that this team is not going +27 and -11 against Baylor or pretty much any team in the top half of the tournament. But you already knew that was what I was saying, didn't you? You just wanted to be a...you know.

So, yeah, against a good team it will be more like +1 and -37. Against a decent team, it could be +18 and -20.
 
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No chance we get above an 8, because we didn’t add games against Fairfield or QU late in the year. What a missed opportunity.
wizard of oz scarecrow GIF


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And most impressively, to win it as a 7 seed, we had to beat the 1, 2, 3 seeds to make it to the final.

but one could argue we deserved better than a 7 seed because the AAC got shafted by the selection committee. With the same season the BE we were likely a 3 or 4.
The AAC was absolutely undervalued that year. The committee didn't know what to do with a conference that had 5 good to very good teams at the top (Louisville, Cincy, UConn, Memphis, SMU) and 5 abominable teams at the bottom (Rutgers, Houston, USF, UCF, Temple).

The KenPom that year went:

1. Louisville
15. UConn
27. Cincy
31. SMU
36. Memphis

All these schools were lower than they would normally be (other than Louisville, of course) because of what follows:

132. Houston
150. Temple
155. UCF
170. Rutgers
191. South Florida

The committee got Cincy's seed mostly right and they did what Cincy always does. Louisville was underseeded by 2 seed-lines. Same with UConn. Memphis was mostly right. And SMU should have made it.

But not often is there that big a chasm between top and bottom in a conference.
 
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This. We lost the 2nd half 58 to 47. We gave up 82 Georgetown. Playing like that, we can be a quick out.
If you're up 27 and maintain a 20+ point lead into the final 3 minutes, I feel pretty okay.

Georgetown went 6-6 from 3 to start the second half. Many of them were not great, clean looks.

Nothing about the second half concerned me because the game was over with about 5 minutes to go in the first half. Hurley can and should disagree for motivational purposes, but the game was never in doubt so as fans it's not that big of a deal.
 

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