OT: Way Too Early Mid-Major Top-24*

[freescooter]

The other thing is when you look at the tournament, there are a bunch of upsets most years but they aren’t really upsets based on ability. They are based on perception. Just so you don’t throw it up, yes, there are in fact some real upsets, UMBC over Virginia types, but often they are equal or better teams beating teams that they would be expected to beat if it was based on a Comparison of talent. Loyola when it made its final four run was a really good basketball team. It was as good, or at least very close to the teams it beat. Had it been in the NEWBIE instead of DePaul it would have :a. Been a higher seed and b. Been favored against At least a couple of the 2nd tier majors they beat. Just to show how bogus it all is, a worse Loyola squad got a better seed last year based not on play but on its 2018 performance. Many of the supposed mid-major upsets are based on rep, not ability. That’s why I think leagues should be limited to 4-5 bids. There are other really good teams that get left out so mediocre “majors” can get extra slots they really don’t deserve. If you finish 8th in the Big 10 I really don’t care what a computer says. It doesn’t pass the smell test.
So bottom line is I don’t much care what your league is. Good teams and very good teams exist at most levels And mediocre and bad ones do too. Classifying a team as a major or mid major or low major based on what league you are in is just crazy.

You see the same thing in football, but in a different way. A 4 star kid who signs with UConn will be downgraded to 3 while a 3 star who signs at Michigan is suddenly 4 stars. An undefeated Central Florida is ranked 8 behind 5 “P5” teams most of whom have worse records.

 

[Get a Job]

The other thing is when you look at the tournament, there are a bunch of upsets most years but they aren’t really upsets based on ability. They are based on perception. Just so you don’t throw it up, yes, there are in fact some real upsets, UMBC over Virginia types, but often they are equal or better teams beating teams that they would be expected to beat if it was based on a Comparison of talent. Loyola when it made its final four run was a really good basketball team. It was as good, or at least very close to the teams it beat. Had it been in the NEWBIE instead of DePaul it would have :a. Been a higher seed and b. Been favored against At least a couple of the 2nd tier majors they beat. Just to show how bogus it all is, a worse Loyola squad got a better seed last year based not on play but on its 2018 performance. Many of the supposed mid-major upsets are based on rep, not ability. That’s why I think leagues should be limited to 4-5 bids. There are other really good teams that get left out so mediocre “majors” can get extra slots they really don’t deserve. If you finish 8th in the Big 10 I really don’t care what a computer says. It doesn’t pass the smell test.
So bottom line is I don’t much care what your league is. Good teams and very good teams exist at most levels And mediocre and bad ones do too. Classifying a team as a major or mid major or low major based on what league you are in is just crazy.

You see the same thing in football, but in a different way. A 4 star kid who signs with UConn will be downgraded to 3 while a 3 star who signs at Michigan is suddenly 4 stars. An undefeated Central Florida is ranked 8 behind 5 “P5” teams most of whom have worse records.

I was always under the impression that the term "mid-major" was only applicable to conferences, not teams. In other words, a team can be from a mid-major conference, but can't be a mid-major team. I realize that teams are often referred to as "mid-majors," but I always took that to be shorthand for "a team from a mid-major conference."

Anyway, my point is that I think you may be raving like a lunatic without stopping to think about what the words about which you are ranting mean.

 

[MU in MKE]

@Hey Adrien! , I like your list. I was curious how it compared to one of the metrics sites. I like T-Rank in the off season, so I compared how each team ranked compared to the original list. One reason I like T-rank is because he's pretty up to date on roster moves. I think this list shows how difficult it can be to pin down teams at the mid-major level.

There's a few big swings in there, and the metrics are punishing Ohio nearly as much as your list did. On the other end, Iona is absolutely hammered in the metrics.

https://www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=mid&state=All&year=2022&sort=

Original Rank	Mid-Maj T-Rank	Full T-Rank
1. St. Bonaventure - Atlantic 10	1​	20​
2. Nevada - Mountain West	11​	65​
3. Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley	4​	36​
4. Colorado State - Mountain West	7​	46​
5. BYU - West Coast	3​	34​
6. Richmond - Atlantic 10	6​	43​
7. Iona - MAAC	19​	102​
8. Belmont - Ohio Valley	13​	72​
9. UAB - Conference USA.	10​	62​
10. Saint Louis - Atlantic 10.	12​	68​
11. New Mexico State- WAC	20​	107​
12. Murray State - Ohio Valley	14​	81​
13. Drake - Missouri Valley	8​	57​
14. Louisiana - Sun Belt.	24​	157​
15. San Diego State - Mountain West	2​	31​
16. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley.	16​	83​
17. South Dakota State - Summit.	21​	126​
18. Buffalo - MAC.	15​	82​
19. Louisiana Tech - Conference USA	18​	99​
20. Missouri State - Missouri Valley	17​	84​
21. Morehead State - Ohio Valley	22​	128​
22. Saint Mary's - West Coast	5​	37​
23. Oral Roberts - Summit.	23​	156​
24. Ohio- MAC.	9​	60​

 

[Hey Adrien!]

@Hey Adrien! , I like your list. I was curious how it compared to one of the metrics sites. I like T-Rank in the off season, so I compared how each team ranked compared to the original list. One reason I like T-rank is because he's pretty up to date on roster moves. I think this list shows how difficult it can be to pin down teams at the mid-major level.

There's a few big swings in there, and the metrics are punishing Ohio nearly as much as your list did. On the other end, Iona is absolutely hammered in the metrics.

https://www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=mid&state=All&year=2022&sort=

Original Rank	Mid-Maj T-Rank	Full T-Rank
1. St. Bonaventure - Atlantic 10	1​	20​
2. Nevada - Mountain West	11​	65​
3. Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley	4​	36​
4. Colorado State - Mountain West	7​	46​
5. BYU - West Coast	3​	34​
6. Richmond - Atlantic 10	6​	43​
7. Iona - MAAC	19​	102​
8. Belmont - Ohio Valley	13​	72​
9. UAB - Conference USA.	10​	62​
10. Saint Louis - Atlantic 10.	12​	68​
11. New Mexico State- WAC	20​	107​
12. Murray State - Ohio Valley	14​	81​
13. Drake - Missouri Valley	8​	57​
14. Louisiana - Sun Belt.	24​	157​
15. San Diego State - Mountain West	2​	31​
16. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley.	16​	83​
17. South Dakota State - Summit.	21​	126​
18. Buffalo - MAC.	15​	82​
19. Louisiana Tech - Conference USA	18​	99​
20. Missouri State - Missouri Valley	17​	84​
21. Morehead State - Ohio Valley	22​	128​
22. Saint Mary's - West Coast	5​	37​
23. Oral Roberts - Summit.	23​	156​
24. Ohio- MAC.	9​	60​

Nice work.

My projection is directly from the Busting Brackets site, so I can't take credit for the list.

I'm curious which teams on your source will rank ahead of the teams from the Busting Brackets rank.

Some examples:

• Grand Canyon - WAC: Junior point guard Javon Blacksher is their stud (12p, 5.4a), they return five rotation players, they have an excellent five-man transfer class led by Aidan Igiehon, Taeshon Cherry and Holland Woods and they've had two straight top-60 freshman classes.
• Vermont - American East: Four seniors returns for their extra year, making a total of NINE seniors in their rotation. Likely an all-senior starting lineup. Ryan Davis is their stud (18.5p, 6.3r) and their only rotation player leaving was Stef Smith to St. John's.
• Southern Utah - Big Sky: The team was 20-4 last season and the team basically returns their entire team including their top-four scorers, all of which average 12 ppg+. Their two opt-in extra year guys average a combined 26.4 ppg and their stud is former Illinois wing Tevian Jones (16.9 ppg).