Way too early bracketology now has Oregon State #1

[newfrontier]

I can hear it now....but OSU struggled against lowly Liberty so Charlie Creme is wrong...

What's the bracket impact after Oregon, Baylor lose on same day?

Louisville beating No. 1 Oregon and South Carolina knocking off No. 2 Baylor could have far-reaching impact. Here's what it all could mean in March.

www.espn.com

 

[LoTrader]

I can hear it now....but OSU struggled against lowly Liberty so Charlie Creme is wrong...

What's the bracket impact after Oregon, Baylor lose on same day?

Louisville beating No. 1 Oregon and South Carolina knocking off No. 2 Baylor could have far-reaching impact. Here's what it all could mean in March.

www.espn.com

In another post, I mentioned that I have UCONN & OSU #7 and #8 in my Boneyard Poll, because UCONN & OSU have beaten the teams they should have beaten, but neither has been tested by a top 10 team. Until you put your team against a top 10, I don't see how you can be a top 5 team.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I normally like Creme but his claims don't even match the metrics. Massey has the Beavers with the 31st best SOS, which is worse than Louisville, UConn, Baylor, Oregon, Stanford, Mississippi St, and South Carolina (i.e., all the teams he ranks ahead of them primarily on the basis of playing a tougher schedule). The Beavers have also at times looked just as bad as any of those teams in their low moments, if not worse, and against trifling opposition. So I truly don't get it.

As of now (i.e., with Carrington and Dodson out for Stanford and Cox out for Baylor), I'd lean toward something like Louisville, UConn, Stanford (with any of those three arguable #1s), then Oregon State, Oregon, South Carolina, Baylor, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, and then a huge cliff before Maryland. With Carrington, Dodson, and Cox back in the lineups, I'd move Stanford to #1 and Baylor to #4 behind UConn.

Yes, UConn hasn't played anyone amazing yet, but Geno has earned the benefit of the doubt in a way I won't give Rueck until I see Oregon State beat an elite team. I really like Oregon State, and they have the pieces to make a final four run if things break right, but put it this way: if someone forced me to put $100 on a game held today between UConn and Oregon State on a neutral court, there's no way I'd put my money on the Beavs.

 

[newfrontier]

I normally like Creme but his claims don't even match the metrics. Massey has the Beavers with the 31st best SOS, which is worse than Louisville, UConn, Baylor, Oregon, Stanford, Mississippi St, and South Carolina (i.e., all the teams he ranks ahead of them primarily on the basis of playing a tougher schedule). The Beavers have also at times looked just as bad as any of those teams in their low moments, if not worse, and against trifling opposition. So I truly don't get it.

As of now (i.e., with Carrington and Dodson out for Stanford and Cox out for Baylor), I'd lean toward something like Louisville, UConn, Stanford (with any of those three arguable #1s), then Oregon State, Oregon, South Carolina, Baylor, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, and then a huge cliff before Maryland. With Carrington, Dodson, and Cox back in the lineups, I'd move Stanford to #1 and Baylor to #4 behind UConn.

Yes, UConn hasn't played anyone amazing yet, but Geno has earned the benefit of the doubt in a way I won't give Rueck until I see Oregon State beat an elite team. Put it this way: if someone forced me to put $100 on a game held today between UConn and Oregon State on a neutral court, there's no way I'd put my money on the Beavs.

SOS #3 versus #31? Realtime has Oregon State with the #3 SOS (and number 1 RPI) as of this Sunday morning.

RealTimeRPI.com Women's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet

RealTimeRPI.com: RPI, RPI Rankings, college basketball rpi, Real Time NCAA College Basketball and Sports Ratings - the most accurate independent analysis of the NCAA college basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI)

realtimerpi.com

 

[bennyskid]

Again, remember that Creme is predicting the COMMITTEE DECISION, not making a statement about the team quality. So it's almost a no-brainer - OSU is undefeated, with some quality wins, and #1 RPI right now.

 

[LoTrader]

Define "real time RPI" - as of now, the site doesn't even include the result of the Stanford/Mississippi State game. Also, RPI is a notoriously bad indicator early in the season (and IMHO it's bad year round) - one of Oregon State's opponents, Pacific, has an RPI rank of 23, and it treats Oregon State's home win against them as a "$$" excellent win. For context, for example, Stanford's home win against Gonzaga is only rated "$". Plus, if we're going on RPI, Missouri State should be ranked #2, per RPI...

I agree that Oregon State would get the #1 seed in the Portland region if the committee were seeding today, but that doesn't mean they need to be #1 overall.


No brainer? All the same factors apply to Stanford, except they beat a much better team than anyone OSU did, with two of their starters out, and I suspect once the RPI updates to include that result the disparity will be pretty narrow.

Don't forget, OSU is playing without Taya Corosdale, equivalent or more of Stanford playing without Carrington, and, OSU just got Kat Tudor back, which was huge missing piece. BTW, the only OSU victory that wasn't a quality victory was yesterday's game vs Liberty. But, OSU came out in 2nd half, and finished off Liberty. Why you give UCONN the benefit of the doubt vs Oregon State makes little sense to me. But that is what this forum is all about, and, I don't give either the benefit of doubt until they play a top 10 team.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Let me dissect:

Don't forget, OSU is playing without Taya Corosdale, equivalent or more of Stanford playing without Carrington,

Unfortunately, Corosdale is out for the season, so she's irrelevant in terms of projecting for NCAA Tournament purposes. And with respect, she is in no way, shape, or form the equivalent of Stanford playing without Carrington. Carrington was essentially tied for Stanford's second leading scorer last season (behind since-departed All-American Alanna Smith), while Corosdale was Oregon State's 7th. Carrington is on every relevant pre-season watch list - Corosdale was nowhere to be found. Carrington can take over games - she put down 33 at Tennessee last season - while Corosdale's all time best game was 14 against Washington.

OSU just got Kat Tudor back, which was huge missing piece.

The same could be true for Stanford's Nadia Fingall, who was named Tournament MVP. They tore their ACLs literally the same weekend, if memory serves (I remember because there was also another (Utah?) player who tore her ACL that same weekend it was so much bad news for the PAC-12 all at once.)

Why you give UCONN the benefit of the doubt vs Oregon State makes little sense to me.

Because the coach leading UConn has made twelve straight final fours and the one leading Oregon State has made one final four ever. All else equal, the burden of proof is on the relative up-and-comer.

 

[newfrontier]

If I didn't know better, me thinks Oregon State's no. 1 overall seed has gotten a little under someone's skin.

 

[Plebe]

If I didn't know better, me thinks Oregon State's no. 1 overall seed has gotten a little under someone's skin.

If I didn't know better, methinks someone is hypersensitive to critical opposition.

 

[TheFarmFan]

If I didn't know better, me thinks Oregon State's no. 1 overall seed has gotten a little under someone's skin.

No skin to get under here. I deeply admire Rueck and all he's accomplished, think Pivec is a criminally underrated stud (despite her turning Stanford down), and am among other things a native Oregonian, so I have absolutely nothing against the idea that OSU could rise in the ranks to no. 1 -- they just need to deserve it, which I don't think, as of now, they do.

 

[newfrontier]

No skin to get under here. I deeply admire Rueck and all he's accomplished, think Pivec is a criminally underrated stud (despite her turning Stanford down), and am among other things a native Oregonian, so I have absolutely nothing against the idea that OSU could rise in the ranks to no. 1 -- they just need to deserve it, which I don't think, as of now, they do.

That's fine. I don't think Oregon State is worthy of a top regional seed yet, let alone the overall No. 1 seed.

 

[Plebe]

Some weird arguments have been put forward but ultimately I can't get past the sheer absurdity of bracketology so early in the season.

I love geeking out on this stuff but not until the halfway point of the season, roughly mid-January.

 

[newfrontier]

Some weird arguments have been put forward but ultimately I can't get past the sheer absurdity of bracketology so early in the season.

I love geeking out on this stuff but not until the halfway point of the season, roughly mid-January.

I think the "sheer absurdity" may be mostly why it's being discussed at all

 

[LoTrader]

Let me dissect:


Unfortunately, Corosdale is out for the season, so she's irrelevant in terms of projecting for NCAA Tournament purposes. And with respect, she is in no way, shape, or form the equivalent of Stanford playing without Carrington. Carrington was essentially tied for Stanford's second leading scorer last season (behind since-departed All-American Alanna Smith), while Corosdale was Oregon State's 7th. Carrington is on every relevant pre-season watch list - Corosdale was nowhere to be found. Carrington can take over games - she put down 33 at Tennessee last season - while Corosdale's all time best game was 14 against Washington.


The same could be true for Stanford's Nadia Fingall, who was named Tournament MVP. They tore their ACLs literally the same weekend, if memory serves (I remember because there was also another (Utah?) player who tore her ACL that same weekend it was so much bad news for the PAC-12 all at once.)


Because the coach leading UConn has made twelve straight final fours and the one leading Oregon State has made one final four ever. All else equal, the burden of proof is on the relative up-and-comer.

Taya Corosdale's scoring is not what is missed. It was her rebounding, passing, and defense as a mobile 6' 3" stud. You don't start at Oregon State as a freshman unless you are a stud. Taya & Pivec were the best players on OSU in the last 2 x NCAA tournaments. Again, I don't agree with Charlie Creme's bracket, and, rarely like any of what he projects. Putting out NCAA Brackets now is absurd.

 

[domerduck]

The most important thing is who gets to go to Portland. I already got my tix so hoping for Ducks but fine with Beavers since I live in Corvallis. Don't want Stanford and boy will that affect attendance. Last year Portland had the best regional attendance given the Ducks were there.

 

[biobioprof]

I think the "sheer absurdity" may be mostly why it's being discussed at all

Indeed. Writing that Oregon and Baylor are still likely to get back to 1 seeds by March doesn't make good clickbait.

 

[SimpleDawg]

Interesting...this is my ranking. (just my opinion, nothing more)

1. Stanford
2. Louisville
3. South Carolina
4. Oregon State
5. UConn
6. Baylor
7. Oregon
8. Texas A&M/Florida State winner
9. Indiana
10. Mississippi State

 

[Figurehead]

So we have a thread here with Oregon State, UConn, Stanford and other? fans arguing over a basketball pundits opinion 5 games or so into the season. I want Charlie Creme to give me the winning state lottery numbers for next Friday so I can win and Lear jet to each game in person. Kind silly when you take a step back and look at all. As someone said go 6-0 in the last games of the season and that tells the story.

Did you know next years football playoff projections are already out there as well.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Did you know next years football playoff projections are already out there as well.

Ha. Pick any 4 of Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Georgia, Ohio St., Oklahoma...am I missing anybody? Pretty much the same every year.

 

[stwainfan]

Ha. Pick any 4 of Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Georgia, Ohio St., Oklahoma...am I missing anybody? Pretty much the same every year.

Alabama won't be in the playoffs this year.

 

[Plebe]

Alabama won't be in the playoffs this year.

Well at least they were in contention, which is more than can be said for Tennessee.

 

[stwainfan]

Well at least they were in contention, which is more than can be said for Tennessee.

Alabama has zero wins. This year against ranked teams. At least Tennessee finished stong. Wining five in a row, and six of seven.

 

[Carnac]

Interesting...this is my ranking. (just my opinion, nothing more)

1. Stanford
2. Louisville
3. South Carolina
4. Oregon State
5. UConn
6. Baylor
7. Oregon
8. Texas A&M/Florida State winner
9. Indiana
10. Mississippi State

If these 10 teams were to play a 9 game round robin tournament over the next two weeks on a neutral court, which team(s) would finish with most wins?

 

[bennyskid]

If these 10 teams were to play a 9 game round robin tournament over the next two weeks on a neutral court, which team(s) would finish with most wins?

That's a question for a different thread, isn't it? "Bracketology" isn't about "who is the best?" It's about "who would the committee pick?" He only looks at player situations if he feels that the committee would - e.g. the committee typically discounts losses incurred when a key player is out. He doesn't look at margin-of-victory at all. He looks at W-L vs Top 25/Top 50/Top 100. He looks at momentum. And mainly he looks at RPI.

And right now, OSU is #1 in RPI. Who is #2? Missouri State. OSU also has wins against #6 DePaul and #22 Pacific. Stanford's best win at the moment is Gonzaga - #61! UConn at least has #14 Ohio State in the ledger.

Right this moment, it really is a no-brainer. If the season ended today, the committee would take OSU #1 with hardly a debate. No reasonable person would claim that this makes OSU the best team in the country. It just means that right now, OSU has an edge on all the other contenders aiming for that #1 seed.

 

[Figurehead]

Somehow I think someone else here (not me, but of a Stanford leaning) will be saving this post come March.