DobbsRover2
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Back in mid December after UConn had a nice little party at South Bend, Geno made this pronouncement:
“Going back to all the games that we have played against Notre Dame, every time we have outrebounded them and shot more free throws than them, we’ve won the game.”
Seems reasonable. Get to the FT line and win the battle of the boards, and UConn will win against the Irish, a team that usually gets a lot of FTAs as happened last year when they shot the 17th most FTAs, about 200 more than UConn. And as Geno stated it, if both conditions are met, UConn wins. If only one is met, all bets are off, and perhaps UConn can win if either one or even neither is met, but if they do both occur, the Huskies win.
The question also is, how far back is Geno going? If he's just thinking about the last two years, he's unquestionably right about the two games, both UConn wins in April. In 2013 UConn went 7-15 on FTs and had 54 rebounds to the Irish's 8-10 and 31 rebounds. In 2014 UConn went 14-21 and had 52 rebounds to the Irish's 9-11 and 34 rebounds. In the first game UConn was outscored from the line, and in neither did they shoot well there, but the damage was contained at the line and UConn crushed on the boards.
But over the last five years, 14 games split 7-7 between two teams who have clawed away at each other, does the same truth hold? Well, not quite, and we don't need to go back far for the exception to the rule. The overall breakdown in the 7 wins and 7 losses is:
Wins: Led in both categories - 3, Led in FTAs but trailed in rebounds - 2, Led in FTAS and tied in rebounds - 1, Trailed in FTAs and tied in rebounds - 1. In the first of these wins back in 2011, UConn went an incredible 26-27 at the line.
Losses: Trailed in both - 4, Trailed in FTAs and tied in rebounds - 1, Trailed in FTAs and led in rebounds - 1, Led in both categories - 1. Getting only 27 rebounds in the 2011 FF is a real stand-out stat.
The exception to the Geno ND Theorem was the 2013 BET game where UConn went 9-11 at the line and had 36 rebounds while ND was at 6-6 and 33 in a 61-59 loss that turned for the Huskies on 4 more TOs, 0-5 on 3s, and 1 less basket overall even though UConn had a better FG%.
The averages for the wins and losses shows especially the importance of rebounding for UConn and FTs for the Irish in either team winning.
Huskies' Wins: UConn 14.9 - 19.1 FTs and 43.6 rebs. ND: 12.7 - 16.7 and 37.4.
Huskies' Losses: UConn 10.3 - 14.7 FTs and 39.1 rebs. ND: 17.1 - 22.4 and 42.0.
So Geno was right in general if not in every case, and he's seen his team outshoot the Irish a couple times and lose but also pick up 6 more TOs like in this year's game and still win easily. Sometimes focusing on a few key factors to control may be the key to winning the big game.
“Going back to all the games that we have played against Notre Dame, every time we have outrebounded them and shot more free throws than them, we’ve won the game.”
Seems reasonable. Get to the FT line and win the battle of the boards, and UConn will win against the Irish, a team that usually gets a lot of FTAs as happened last year when they shot the 17th most FTAs, about 200 more than UConn. And as Geno stated it, if both conditions are met, UConn wins. If only one is met, all bets are off, and perhaps UConn can win if either one or even neither is met, but if they do both occur, the Huskies win.
The question also is, how far back is Geno going? If he's just thinking about the last two years, he's unquestionably right about the two games, both UConn wins in April. In 2013 UConn went 7-15 on FTs and had 54 rebounds to the Irish's 8-10 and 31 rebounds. In 2014 UConn went 14-21 and had 52 rebounds to the Irish's 9-11 and 34 rebounds. In the first game UConn was outscored from the line, and in neither did they shoot well there, but the damage was contained at the line and UConn crushed on the boards.
But over the last five years, 14 games split 7-7 between two teams who have clawed away at each other, does the same truth hold? Well, not quite, and we don't need to go back far for the exception to the rule. The overall breakdown in the 7 wins and 7 losses is:
Wins: Led in both categories - 3, Led in FTAs but trailed in rebounds - 2, Led in FTAS and tied in rebounds - 1, Trailed in FTAs and tied in rebounds - 1. In the first of these wins back in 2011, UConn went an incredible 26-27 at the line.
Losses: Trailed in both - 4, Trailed in FTAs and tied in rebounds - 1, Trailed in FTAs and led in rebounds - 1, Led in both categories - 1. Getting only 27 rebounds in the 2011 FF is a real stand-out stat.
The exception to the Geno ND Theorem was the 2013 BET game where UConn went 9-11 at the line and had 36 rebounds while ND was at 6-6 and 33 in a 61-59 loss that turned for the Huskies on 4 more TOs, 0-5 on 3s, and 1 less basket overall even though UConn had a better FG%.
The averages for the wins and losses shows especially the importance of rebounding for UConn and FTs for the Irish in either team winning.
Huskies' Wins: UConn 14.9 - 19.1 FTs and 43.6 rebs. ND: 12.7 - 16.7 and 37.4.
Huskies' Losses: UConn 10.3 - 14.7 FTs and 39.1 rebs. ND: 17.1 - 22.4 and 42.0.
So Geno was right in general if not in every case, and he's seen his team outshoot the Irish a couple times and lose but also pick up 6 more TOs like in this year's game and still win easily. Sometimes focusing on a few key factors to control may be the key to winning the big game.
