WAB (2/26) | The Boneyard

WAB (2/26)

BFieldHusky

BFieldHusky

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1. Michigan 10.3
2. Duke 10.1
3. Arizona 9.8
4. UConn 8.7
5. Purdue 7.1
6. Nebraska 6.7
7. Houston 6.7
8. Gonzaga 6.6
9. Iowa St. 6.5
10. Florida 6.5
11. Illinois 6.5

Couple of notes:

-UConn is closer to #3 Arizona than #5 Purdue is to them. Starting to put a little separation there.

-We control our own destiny again. Just keep winning. Things will happen to the teams below us.

-I think Iowa St and Purdue are the biggest threats to catching us. Purdue has Michigan St at home tonight. Iowa St has Texas Tech at home this weekend, and then has to travel to Arizona on Monday. Houston, if it wins out, could get back into the mix.
 
WAB? VCU is the current bubble team ~45th NET.

We will get little WAB credit for beating Seton Hall at home or Marquette in Milwaukee as VCU would have decent chances to beat both.

Last night was a huge WAB climb as VCU would not be expected to beat St. Johns.

Of course WAB doesn’t care that we won by 32 or 1.
 
If we win out but lose in the BET Championship game, we have the final 1 seed. The other teams can't catch us unless they win their conference tournaments.
 
auror said:
We should probably be rooting pretty hard for Michigan in the Big 10 tourny, Arizona in the Big 12 tourny, and literally anyone to beat Florida.
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And for Michigan to beat Illinois, and AZ to beat ISU in reg season.
 
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Tyler2Rings said:
Even if Florida wins out I don't think they would put them ahead of us with 6 losses including the H2H
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We'd have to lose multiple X.

I think Illinois has a better chance to get a 1, over Purdue, given they have a home game against UM. That game, to me, is one of the more intriguing of the year given the matchup of Illinois with it's non athletic size and strong guard play, and UM with it's athletic size and lack of guard play.
 
Tyler2Rings said:
Even if Florida wins out I don't think they would put them ahead of us with 6 losses including the H2H
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In this hypothetical I replied to where we lose in the BET final, It would end up being like 9-3 in Q1 for us and 14-5 for them, us with a Q3 loss and them with better predictive metrics.

The head to head helps, but the sheer volume of wins might give the edge to them.
 
Lafayette said:
We will get little WAB credit for beating Seton Hall at home or Marquette in Milwaukee as VCU would have decent chances to beat both.
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Yup, not much there to gain. If they beat Seton Hall they get 0.24 points. If they beat Marquette they get 0.47. So unless the 3 teams ahead of UConn lose some games it's impossible to catch them. And they'll have much better chances for bigger points. Of course if UConn loses to Seton Hall and/or Marquette that will be a big hit to WAB.
 
HooperScooper said:
Yup, not much there to gain. If they beat Seton Hall they get 0.24 points. If they beat Marquette they get 0.47. So unless the 3 teams ahead of UConn lose some games it's impossible to catch them. And they'll have much better chances for bigger points. Of course if UConn loses to Seton Hall and/or Marquette that will be a big hit to WAB.
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We’re also acting as if WAB is everything here.
 
RuffRuff said:
We’re also acting as if WAB is everything here.
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Seems to be if not the the most important metric then one of the most important the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses. At least that's what all these articles keep telling us. Oh but I forgot, you don't read any of them. ADHD and all. 😉
 
auror said:
We should probably be rooting pretty hard for Michigan in the Big 10 tourny, Arizona in the Big 12 tourny, and literally anyone to beat Florida.
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Florida's resume is not that impressive. They are playing great, but the SEC is not last year's SEC. There is a sizable gap between our best wins and their best wins. Their best win away from home is at Vanderbilt. That's it. No other ranked wins away from home. Meanwhile, we have 5 ranked wins away from home. AND we have the H2H. Florida is not getting a 1-seed over us unless we lose to Marquette and then get bounced by like Providence on Thursday of the BET.
 
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HooperScooper said:
Seems to be if not the the most important metric then one of the most important the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses. At least that's what all these articles keep telling us. Oh but I forgot, you don't read any of them. ADHD and all. 😉
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It's THE most important for selection at the bubble.

It seems to be pretty important at the top with #1 seeds, but so are the predictive metrics. Probably roughly equal. We just saw them slot Iowa State at 4 and us at 5 in the bracket reveal when Iowa State was 8th and we were 4th in WAB. This was because we were like 12th in the predictives and they were a lot higher.

WAB has a pretty good correlation with the full bracket seeding, but when the predictive metrics are a lot higher than the resume, often they will bump up the seedlines to make it more "fair" to the teams that have to play a "better" team.
 
aburks41 said:
Florida's resume is not that impressive. They are playing great, but the SEC is not last year's SEC. There is a sizable gap between our best wins and their best wins. Their best win away from home is at Vanderbilt. That's it. No other ranked wins away from home. Meanwhile, we have 5 ranked wins away from home. AND we have the H2H. Florida is not getting a 1-seed over us unless we lose to Marquette and then get bounced by like Providence on Thursday of the BET.
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BFieldHusky said:
Have you read the articles yet Ruff?
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Listened to the pod with Norlander. I know it's a powerful metric. We're thinking too hard about this one given there are still many games to be played before we can confidently break this out.

Yes on Florida - they are highly advantaged by being in a league that has a good middle and bottom, but very light at the top.
 
RuffRuff said:
Listened to the pod with Norlander. I know it's a powerful metric. We're thinking too hard about this one given there are still many games to be played before we can confidently break this out.
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Agreed. Just win and the Huskies will be fine.
 
Assuming we win out... how many would Duke have to lose for us to grab the 1 seed in the East region (DC)?
 
auror said:
In this hypothetical I replied to where we lose in the BET final, It would end up being like 9-3 in Q1 for us and 14-5 for them, us with a Q3 loss and them with better predictive metrics.

The head to head helps, but the sheer volume of wins might give the edge to them.
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They have 0 wins against a top 3 seed. That will definitely hurt their case
 
.-.
BFieldHusky said:
1. Michigan 10.3
2. Duke 10.1
3. Arizona 9.8
4. UConn 8.7
5. Purdue 7.1
6. Nebraska 6.7
7. Houston 6.7
8. Gonzaga 6.6
9. Iowa St. 6.5
10. Florida 6.5
11. Illinois 6.5

Couple of notes:

-UConn is closer to #3 Arizona than #5 Purdue is to them. Starting to put a little separation there.

-We control our own destiny again. Just keep winning. Things will happen to the teams below us.

-I think Iowa St and Purdue are the biggest threats to catching us. Purdue has Michigan St at home tonight. Iowa St has Texas Tech at home this weekend, and then has to travel to Arizona on Monday. Houston, if it wins out, could get back into the mix.
Expand ...
Purdue losing tonight at home to Michigan St. was big. I think its down to UConn and Iowa St for the last 1 seed, with Houston/Florida/Illinois lurking if the front runners lose and they win out.
 
I think Seton Hall is going to come to Storrs with their hair on fire. This is going to be their season thinking a W will get them back in the conversation.
 
.-.
UConnTrumbull said:
They can also go beat St John’s. Crazy concept I know.
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Not quite the same.

That’s 3 games from now. Seton Hall will know if their path is BE tourney win or NIT by then.

UConn will only have 1 game left to play by the time Johnnies tip off for their first of 3.
 
JungleLobo said:
Not quite the same.

That’s 3 games from now. Seton Hall will know if their path is BE tourney win or NIT by then.

UConn will only have 1 game left to play by the time Johnnies tip off for their first of 3.
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I know. I’m just kinda joking how everyone treats us as their Super Bowl. But no one ever gets worked up about blowing a big lead to St. John’s at MSG and having a chance to sweep them. Nope! Beating UConn is all they think about.

And call it homerism or whatever you want. It’s harder to win a regular season championship when you are everyone’s Super Bowl. St. John’s gets the benefit of no one caring much if they beat them or not. Especially the in-game fan support when we are on the road. Weird how UConn is always a sell out when we travel lol
 
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