Votes

[nelsonmuntz]

FSU's decline was because Bobby Bowden retired, then kept coaching for 8 more years. If they didn't choke a few weeks ago against NC State, FSU would be slotted in the national championship game right now, and this is a down year for the ACC. VTech will be back, and between them and Clemson, that is all the competition that FSU really wants. Look at KState, bashing its brains in every week against a brutal schedule and is still going to be on the outside looking in for the National Championship game.

Louisville is 28-26 in Big East play since joining. UConn is 23-31. Louisville is better, but we are not talking a huge difference, and if you take off the Petrino years which were over 5 years ago, Louisville is 17-23 while UConn is 20-20. So the argument that Louisville is a "football school" is based on one year with a coach that is probably going to be in the SEC next year.

As for the ACC getting gutted, that depends on the Big 10. I don't see anyone saying no to the Big 10, but if the Big 10 really wanted to expand to 16, they are just as likely to get Texas as an ACC team. The Big 12 makes a little more money, but remains unstable with big inequalities internally. It is worth noting that while FSU and Clemson clearly had talks with the Big 12, Texas also approached the ACC. VTech is rumored to have declined a SEC invitation already. Who knows.

 

[upstater]

The "football" schools of the ACC will be furious if Lville is passed over. Just the way it is......

FYI - Lville had an inside track to the Big 12 when it looked like the ACC schools were all solid because of the ND addition. Now that a charter member is ejecting, the Big 12 feels FSU & Clemson are available again. Let's be honest, the SEC and the Big 12 (maybe even the Big 10) are eyeing additional ACC schools. The ACC is most likely going to be gutted. Why should Uconn bother considering a move at this moment.....it is likely that the leftovers of the ACC & the Big East will merger into a stud basketball conference anyway.

Louisville is not a football school.

Look at their record.

 

[gars44]

The Big 12 has turned down FSU and Clemson already.

Never heard that. Source?

 

[MattMang23]

If I were to guess, the camp for us: Wake, Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt, UVA, and three of them can't vote.

Against: Clemson, FSU, BC, Miami.

Swing: NCSU, VTech, GTech.

I have BC in the against us category because although Gene is gone, Leahy remains, and he hates us (at least as much as a catholic priest is allowed to hate something). They may be persuaded if it is us and there is a clear alternative and they needed to choose between the two, but if it's just us in a vacuum I think they are against.

Shalalalalalala hates us too so I wouldn't count on Miami.

As for the swing, I'm inclined to think VTech can be swung after having a chat with UVA. NCSU may be swung much in the same manner, but with their desire to become a bigger football name I could see them wanting the perceived football school in Louisville. GTech probably doesn't give a crap because they're busy working the phones trying to orchestrate their own exit.

What's more: I think we need a 75% vote anyway, not simple majority. We have our work cut out for us.

 

[Doggie Style]

"It's a sandwich, and we're all gonna have to take a bite!"

~ Full Metal Jacket

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Never heard that. Source?

There were rumors of discussions, which were then confirmed by the Chairman of the FSU BoT publicly saying the schools should explore joining the Big 12. Then everything stopped. I guess is it possible FSU and Clemson walked away. Doesn't seem like it though, does it?

 

[businesslawyer]

UConn's biggest risk is that the ACC sits on 13 football schools. I think, as do most analysts looking at the situation, that Louisville is not under serious consideration at this point.

This. The one vote, as I said last night, is ESPN's. ESPN needs to get its in state development partner off its backs, and ESPN now needs to kill off the Big East in hoops once and for all. UConn staying with Catholics leaves an east coast competitor to the ACC. Not because UConn has such a better program than LV, but because of geography.

If the ACC replaces MD, it will be with us. I would be surprised if the XII doesn't go back to XII, most likely with LV and BYU. And then we should stay with five majors for the forseeable future, leading eventually to an 8 team play off with five automatic bids.

 

[Richmondhsky]

If I were to guess, the camp for us: Wake, Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt, UVA, and three of them can't vote.

Against: Clemson, FSU, BC, Miami.

Swing: NCSU, VTech, GTech.

I have BC in the against us category because although Gene is gone, Leahy remains, and he hates us (at least as much as a catholic priest is allowed to hate something). They may be persuaded if it is us and there is a clear alternative and they needed to choose between the two, but if it's just us in a vacuum I think they are against.

Shalalalalalala hates us too so I wouldn't count on Miami.

As for the swing, I'm inclined to think VTech can be swung after having a chat with UVA. NCSU may be swung much in the same manner, but with their desire to become a bigger football name I could see them wanting the perceived football school in Louisville. GTech probably doesn't give a crap because they're busy working the phones trying to orchestrate their own exit.

What's more: I think we need a 75% vote anyway, not simple majority. We have our work cut out for us.

VTech would not vote against us...everyone I know is incredibly supportive of UCONN in the ACC. Same holds true for UVA. Agree on the Miami, FSU, Clemson.
Hope this comes true!

 

[businesslawyer]

The "football" schools of the ACC will be furious if Lville is passed over. Just the way it is......

FYI - Lville had an inside track to the Big 12 when it looked like the ACC schools were all solid because of the ND addition. Now that a charter member is ejecting, the Big 12 feels FSU & Clemson are available again. Let's be honest, the SEC and the Big 12 (maybe even the Big 10) are eyeing additional ACC schools. The ACC is most likely going to be gutted. Why should Uconn bother considering a move at this moment.....it is likely that the leftovers of the ACC & the Big East will merger into a stud basketball conference anyway.

The thought that Clemson and FSU would cough up $50 large that they wouldn't cough up last week because Maryland left the conference and is replaced by UConn is patently absurd. That change has no effect whatsoever on the strength of the ACC as a football conference.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If I were to guess, the camp for us: Wake, Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt, UVA, and three of them can't vote.

Against: Clemson, FSU, BC, Miami.

Swing: NCSU, VTech, GTech.

I have BC in the against us category because although Gene is gone, Leahy remains, and he hates us (at least as much as a catholic priest is allowed to hate something). They may be persuaded if it is us and there is a clear alternative and they needed to choose between the two, but if it's just us in a vacuum I think they are against.

Shalalalalalala hates us too so I wouldn't count on Miami.

As for the swing, I'm inclined to think VTech can be swung after having a chat with UVA. NCSU may be swung much in the same manner, but with their desire to become a bigger football name I could see them wanting the perceived football school in Louisville. GTech probably doesn't give a crap because they're busy working the phones trying to orchestrate their own exit.

What's more: I think we need a 75% vote anyway, not simple majority. We have our work cut out for us.

Try this another way. The only way Louisville joins the ACC is if something catastrophic happens to the league, like 5 schools leave or something. There is a block of at least half the league that will NEVER vote for Louisville to join if unless it is for their survival.

Everyone is ignoring markets too. If the ACC wants to recut their ESPN deal again, they have to show that they are bringing in a decent market. Louisville is small and poor, and split with U of Kentucky. Connecticut is a medium sized market that is rich and UConn dominates.

The ACC's realistic choices are add UConn or sit tight at 13, which probably means a reduction from ESPN.

 

[businesslawyer]

ND will not have a vote at all. They will have an opinion but they are not close to being in the conference yet as a full member. Same with Pitt and Cuse. I am sure all 3 will be on a call but when the secret ballot takes place, they will not be in the room.

And don't write off FSU. This weekend they can jump about 4 places in the poll if they beat FL. And Clemson, much like WVU, needs to recruit some defensive players. If they do that, they are a top 5-10 team. Both those teams have SEC speed where it counts on offense.

If speed counts more on offense, why has WVU lost five straight? Or does the losing streak not matter because they are scoring a lot while losing every week?

 

[TRest]

Too lazy to google it, but I'm pretty sure Pitt and Cuse were allowed to vote ND in and sign off on the $50mil buyout. If so, should be 2-3 more votes in our favor.

 

[ZooCougar]

If speed counts more on offense, why has WVU lost five straight? Or does the losing streak not matter because they are scoring a lot while losing every week?

I don't think he said speed counts more. He said they had SEC speed where it counts on offense.

WVU loses games now because their offense can't score more points than their defense allows.

 

[businesslawyer]

Try this another way. The only way Louisville joins the ACC is if something catastrophic happens to the league, like 5 schools leave or something. There is a block of at least half the league that will NEVER vote for Louisville to join if unless it is for their survival.

Everyone is ignoring markets too. If the ACC wants to recut their ESPN deal again, they have to show that they are bringing in a decent market. Louisville is small and poor, and split with U of Kentucky. Connecticut is a medium sized market that is rich and UConn dominates.

The ACC's realistic choices are add UConn or sit tight at 13, which probably means a reduction from ESPN.

New York, New York, New York. The Big Ten, with a NE corridor trio of Rutgers, Penn State and Maryland now wants to compete for northeastern basketball viewers as well. Adding UConn to Syracuse in the metro New York area helps keep them out, and makes the ACC the dominant hoops conference in NYC.

 

[ZooCougar]

New York, New York, New York. The Big Ten, with a NE corridor trio of Rutgers, Penn State and Maryland now wants to compete for northeastern basketball viewers as well. Adding UConn to Syracuse in the metro New York area helps keep them out, and makes the ACC the dominant hoops conference in NYC.

Ding!

 

[nelsonmuntz]

FSU and Clemson's choices are limited. The Big 10 will not add them because of academics and general reputation. The SEC will NEVER add either school. The Big 12 has probably already turned them down, although might reconsider if Texas is not too busy talking to the Big 10 or Pac 12 about joining those leagues.

FSU and Clemson had their chance to leave, and it didn't happen for whatever reason. If adding a football school is so important, their choices are Louisville, Cincinnati and UConn, and only Cincinnati of the 3 has shown itself to be a really solid football program across coaches. I don't see a lot of "Cincinnati to the ACC" rumors, do you? La Tech would join, what do you think the odds of that happening are?

UConn is the only choice. The real risk here is that there is a block of schools that decide they would rather hurt themselves than let UConn in the league. That doesn't happen very often in business, but it is possible.

 

[MattMang23]

VTech would not vote against us...everyone I know is incredibly supportive of UCONN in the ACC. Same holds true for UVA. Agree on the Miami, FSU, Clemson.
Hope this comes true!

Good, I am glad to hear of the support down there. I hope their administration agrees with their fans as well.

 

[junglehusky]

If upstater's sources in Miami are to be believed, Shalala / Miami are not necessarily an automatic "no" vote against UConn.

 

[upstater]

If upstater's sources in Miami are to be believed, Shalala / Miami are not necessarily an automatic "no" vote against UConn.

Uh, I thought I was pretty clear I was joking. not only smily faces, but I think I wrote something like: "Every second the pressure is building to add UConn. They are deathly afraid we'll go to the B10. The people in Shalala's office are frantic right now."

Was that not silly enough?

 

[ZooCougar]

If upstater's sources in Miami are to be believed, Shalala / Miami are not necessarily an automatic "no" vote against UConn.

Agreed. I also think that BC might change their tune.

 

[junglehusky]

Uh, I thought I was pretty clear I was joking. not only smily faces, but I think I wrote something like: "Every second the pressure is building to add UConn. They are deathly afraid we'll go to the B10. The people in Shalala's office are frantic right now."

Was that not silly enough?

well now I feel like an @! At least you nipped it in the bud unlike the guy who heard somebody say something they thought the heard on the radio

 

[Jimdish255]

Rutgers is really going to miss losing in the BE Tourney in MSG. Now they can lose in Chicago. And why do I get the feeling that Miami and FSU really don't want to come up here in Nov/Dec to play football in the cold? I just get the feeling we represent a threat to a lot of AD's who are concerned our emergence into a premier BB school will be replicated to some extent within the conference. That could be a good thing for everyone involved. What is their beef? That we're good in almost all sports?

 

[MattMang23]

Try this another way. The only way Louisville joins the ACC is if something catastrophic happens to the league, like 5 schools leave or something. There is a block of at least half the league that will NEVER vote for Louisville to join if unless it is for their survival.

Everyone is ignoring markets too. If the ACC wants to recut their ESPN deal again, they have to show that they are bringing in a decent market. Louisville is small and poor, and split with U of Kentucky. Connecticut is a medium sized market that is rich and UConn dominates.

The ACC's realistic choices are add UConn or sit tight at 13, which probably means a reduction from ESPN.

I sincerely hope you are accurate, Nelson. Your theory seems spot on, but I will never be comfortable until it goes down officially.

 

[Dooley]

I can't help but think that the ACC already played its "academics and basketball" card when they added Syracuse and UConn Pitt. I'm going to guess that FSU, Clemson, VT, Miami, and other "football" schools pitched a fit and will make sure that the next realignment will include a football school (unless everyone feels confident that they can convince Notre Dame to go all-in...yup, here we go again!). If that's the case, Louisville is a more attractive football addition: better coaches, bigger stadium, better recruiting, more success, etc. We couldn't have picked a worse time to have the two most uninspired years of football since our upgrade to D-1.

 

[RS9999X]

Louisville is #12 if the BIG-12 can land FSU or BYU. LU ratings are huge locally. I don't have the warm and fuzzies when wealthy alumni are driving this bus.

Sent from my Lumia 920 via Windows 8. Now bite me Apple Droids.