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Villanova Scouting Report
- Thread starter Hey Adrien!
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I really like a small ball lineup out there when Clingan is on the bench for this. Think Alex guarding Dixon would make a lot of sense, as he is much more in the Hopkins realm of large 4 than a back to the basket 5 at this point. I worry about Samson fouling too much, as Dixon is a really savvy player.
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Dixon was tough for Adama. He'll push Alex underneath every time time down the floor.
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Dixon would bully Alex. With Clingan back, Johnson will NOT have long stretches where he has to soften his defense because of fouls. Like virtually every aspect of UConn basketball, Clingan's return will have a very positive effect on Johnson's ability to be more aggressive.
Considering we're coming off a big game, it's still early in the season, and Nova isn't the top team in the league... this game is actually surprisingly huge for conference title aspirations
Winning this one would give us a 2 game lead over everyone except Seton Hall, who may or may not come back to Earth. Beating tier 1-2 teams on the road also gives you a projected record advantage over other teams and presumably it's easier to win this one than at Marq or Creighton.
Winning this one would give us a 2 game lead over everyone except Seton Hall, who may or may not come back to Earth. Beating tier 1-2 teams on the road also gives you a projected record advantage over other teams and presumably it's easier to win this one than at Marq or Creighton.
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Eric Dixon has been their most consistent piece on offense, especially with Moore missing time, but he's always had games where he goes missing. He dropped 6 vs UCLA and then the very next game had 32 (on 21 shots) vs Creighton. He's a tough matchup for us since he's got 30-35 lbs on Karaban and Johnson, and he's pretty good with his back to the basket. If we have Clingan guarding him, he's a 36% 3-point shooter on decent volume.
I think the key will be to make sure he's not getting anything easy, he's not super big or strong but he gets a pretty good amount of offensive boards and is a really good finisher near the hoop. We actually did pretty well against him last year, so hopefully Hurley has something figured out
I think the key will be to make sure he's not getting anything easy, he's not super big or strong but he gets a pretty good amount of offensive boards and is a really good finisher near the hoop. We actually did pretty well against him last year, so hopefully Hurley has something figured out
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Not that it matters because DC being back means we'll see less small-ball, but he will have to guard AK on the perimeter as well.
We (the boneyard) keep projecting the demise of the small lineup, and the player that takes it apart when we're on defense, but we're a + with that lineup for the season, and such a major mismatch on offense that it doesn't matter if we get beat a few times down low.
Every coach that has played us has lamented how difficult it is to guard 5 skilled players on the court with that much shooting.
We've shown that we can win 68-60, and 88-80. Either one is the same in the record books.
No one plays through the post more than a few times per game (except for us), and no one really takes advantage of mismatches. Teams run their offense pretty much all the time, no matter the matchups.
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Plus we have Hall for our last home game. Even if they don't regress we're in a good spot if it comes down to that game
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Neptune or no Neptune, I hate playing Villanova. Feels like it'll be a battle. Great pic of Cam by the way in the post above mine. He's a lunatic.
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Strange stats. If I read this right, they're unbelievable at FT shooting but can't get to the line enough, they're mediocre at 3 point shooting but bomb away, and Dixon gets the most attempts on offense and is incredibly inefficient.
Either I didn't understand the original post, or Neptune badly needs someone on his staff who understands analytics.
Either I didn't understand the original post, or Neptune badly needs someone on his staff who understands analytics.
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All I know is that Nova team is going to be coming off a BRUTAL week of practice after letting Marquette go 30/40 from 2.
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TheShot1990
Foot stays on gas
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1) Play with the exact same intensity you did for Creighton
2) Ignore the bad refs
3) If you find yourselves with a big lead with 5 minutes to go, start your play at 14 seconds on the shot clock, not 9. Then play tenacious defense - no layups and no uncontested 3s.
I'll see you on the beach.
2) Ignore the bad refs
3) If you find yourselves with a big lead with 5 minutes to go, start your play at 14 seconds on the shot clock, not 9. Then play tenacious defense - no layups and no uncontested 3s.
I'll see you on the beach.
huskyharry
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Dixon is a beast!
'Nova is always tough at home.
'Nova has struggled against zone defense (contributed to loses at home to St. Johns as well as St. Joes, Penn and Drexel)...not sure if Coach Hurley will take advantage of this,
Big East refs tend to strongly favor more muscular players in getting the foul calls, so we are doomed, clearly DOOMED!
You got it all right except that Dixon actually is efficient. He's got a similar offensive rating at the same usage as Newton.
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354th nationally is really good? I guess if it's not adjusted for competition and stats from all 350 or so schools count, but is being the 350th best offensive player in the country outstanding for a team that wants to be around in the second weekend?
Anyway, not that I didn't know it, I proved that the analytics guy that Nepture needs is not a business lawyer.
Right, not adjusted for anything and included all 4,000+ D1 players. 354 is 93rd percentile, which is good on it's own. But we know at higher usages it tends to suppress players efficiency. So we can use a stat that does adjust for both usage and competition... Voila PORPAGATU!.
Long story short he's 10th in adjusted efficiency in the Big East. Spencer is 1st, Karaban is 4th, and Newton is 9th.
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Very well explained. And ranking it within a conference gives it some meaning. Ranking players in the MAAC versus those in the Big East by statistics -- not so much.
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Dixon worries me as a pick and pop threat who can catch and shoot before Clingan is able to get up there. This happened last year but Hurley/Clingan actually adjusted well mid game to have him not drop as much so he’s in better position
Moore should be able to rip Newton/Cam/Karaban to shreds, but any of those guys should be able to do the same to him. Good to have Clingan protecting the paint too
Expecting a win but road games are never easy!
Moore should be able to rip Newton/Cam/Karaban to shreds, but any of those guys should be able to do the same to him. Good to have Clingan protecting the paint too
Expecting a win but road games are never easy!
HuskyHawk
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Thank you for the superb write-up as always. I’ll have to DVR this one unfortunately. Have to attend a party in western Mass that I’ve dodged for several years thanks to convenient snow storms.
HuskyHawk
The triumphant return of the Blues Brothers.
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Like Kalkbrenner this is one of those matchups where Johnson’s ability to stay with a big on the perimeter is really helpful. Between them they can wear him down.
Should be an interesting matchup, one we can’t take to the bank as a W.
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I'll be honest, I can't figure this Villanova team out. After losing six straight (not going to count the DePaul win), they've now won four of their last five.
Over the last five, sophomore guard Brendan Hausen had had the best stretch of his career. Here are the averages across that span:
13.6 points, 3.6 three-pointers, 53 3P%, 57.1 2P% in 21 mpg
Personally, I find Hausen's recent play as the #1 factor why Villanova has improved over the last two weeks.
To refresh everyone's memory, here's the box from last matchup:
Clingan is healthier and methinks Castle will have a much better game. More minutes of Castle = better defensive 2P% and more turnovers caused.
Over the last five, sophomore guard Brendan Hausen had had the best stretch of his career. Here are the averages across that span:
13.6 points, 3.6 three-pointers, 53 3P%, 57.1 2P% in 21 mpg
Personally, I find Hausen's recent play as the #1 factor why Villanova has improved over the last two weeks.
To refresh everyone's memory, here's the box from last matchup:
Clingan is healthier and methinks Castle will have a much better game. More minutes of Castle = better defensive 2P% and more turnovers caused.
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I haven't seen any Villanova except our game...but they have some wacky loses in the Philly games, And they lost to St Johns twice. Yet they beat UNC, Creightonm, Tex Tech & Memphis. Is it an effort thing? Or just not very good coaching?
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FfldCntyFan
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Why can't both be true?
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I still have nightmares about Kerry Kittles.
The coaching is certainly a bit of an issue. They play 5-out but don't really take advantage of the spacing. They occasionally post up their guards like the old Nova teams, but they're not as good at it, especially since Justin Moore has been banged up. They often just hoist semi-contested 3s instead of getting cuts to the hoop.
This is an illustrative chart. They're taking the "right shots", but you can see how much of an outlier their efficiency is on the chart. They're not getting the shots the right way and they're forcing them. The other option is that their talent is bad, but we know in a vacuum they have good talent. So yeah scheme/coaching.
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huskyharry
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Tough, physical team, they are playing very well of late as Adrian mentioned. Hopefully, they are mentally over the funk from last game.
I would be very happy to see us stay healthy and squeak out a win.
Big East refs tend to strongly favor more muscular players in getting the foul calls, so we are doomed, clearly DOOMED!
I would be very happy to see us stay healthy and squeak out a win.
Big East refs tend to strongly favor more muscular players in getting the foul calls, so we are doomed, clearly DOOMED!
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