Villanova Post Game Thread

[RuffRuff]

We haven't even scratched the surface with how good Reed can be. We're badly underutilizing him. Solo is getting better each game. Stewart hasn't gotten much of a chance but he clearly has game and upside. Nowell had a shoulder injury, we don't know if that's why he hasn't played in a while up until last night. Top 35 recruit, he clearly has more upside than we've seen. Hurley admitted to using Mahaney wrong up until the game against Providence. He had 15 against Providence and zip last night. I think there's upside there now that I expect Hurley to use him in his proper roll.

The biggest problem is we aren't using Tarris nearly enough. He's an unstoppable force down low.

And if we ever want to close the gap on the constant free throw shooting disparity, he's how we do it. That said, our offense isn't the issue, at all.

 

[UCan3]

Good call. That was not a foul in the second drive to the basket.

I think at the end of a game, if you going to call that play, than the player selected to run it has to have a history of finishing with contact - foul calls are hard to come by in the last few seconds.

Alex isn’t tall enough to impose his will like this on a drive to the hoop at the end of game play. Tarris maybe?


He isn’t quick enough to blow by somebody. Diarra maybe?



If the coaches called this play, then it’s on them.

Also, the way Solo was shooting I would have looked for him and gotten the bigs near the hoop.

 

[HooperScooper]

I have a sneaky feeling that come March Alex will be in a similar situation and will nail his FTs. Feels fitting.

Feels like the RJ Cole situation a few years ago. Remember the game against Creighton he missed 2 free throws that would have sealed the game and then Creighton came down and scored sending the game to OT where they eventually won? He took it pretty hard and said it would never happen again. And it didn't. I'm assuming this is how Karaban will deal with it also.

 

[freescooter]

I think this team is very good but not great. It has been player close games against some pretty average competition and it finally came back to bite them. But I think it is not totally unexpected, especially when a key guy is missing. Teams need to adjust when a major piece of the lineup goes down and it is not unusual for that to take a couple of games. Last year we lost to Seton Hall when Clingan went down. And that was an experienced team. This one is much less experienced. You need to figure out who takes the shot, or makes the play the injured guy typically made. It often takes a few games to re-establish the approach. With luck they right the ship at Georgetown and Liam is back shortly.

 

[navery12]

I get that +/- can be a strange stat, and yes it is team based, but it is consistent. Stew has legit been a minus in every game against a high D1 opponent. He's -52 in the 11 games against real opponents.

A game like last night, where he scored 14 and played 30 minutes, and he still was -6. The TEAM aspect starts to go out the window a bit when other members of the team have consistently better +/-. When I brought this up last week someone immediately said that it was because Stew tends to be on the court w/ Aidan. Aidan is a positive +/- for the year. I honestly don't get it and don't know what to do with it. I think if we brought out a stat that Jayden or Aidan were crazy negative for the year (Ross is) people would immediately say that that is a clear indication. But with Stew, it's not. And he has far and away the worst +/- on the team.

And that's why making these broad conclusions based on simple plus minus is not smart, and is why it's generally considered one of the worst basketball stats to use. Especially as you expand it over a full season, there's so many lineup and possession factors that get missed.

If you look at the advanced stats that try to weed out the noise in plus minus like BPM, you do see that Stewart is above both Ross and Mahaney

 

[AllHusky]

We’re running out of options with upside. Diarra and Reed are already playing better than anyone could have reasonably expected. Samson is who he is. So if Alex cant go to another level than who are we pinning our hopes on? Certainly not Mahaney or Ross. Nowell doesn’t play. So that leaves Ball and/or Stew.

While Liam is out, I'd sit Ross, push Nowell until he shows that he can or cannot make a contribution now, continue to use Stewart at least 20 minutes, probably 25 min/game. Mahaney @ PG if Nowell can't cut it spelling Hassan, and if he can, spelling Ball only. I'm ambivalent/confused by the 5 tandem. I lean towards Reed starting and getting 20-25 with Sam off the bench for 15-20. Some of our metrics guys show Samsons value statistically, while I just think Reed gives us more via eyeballs and gut. That leaves Ball, Hassan and Alex, who have established their value and usage, though Ball is still evolving rapidly(+). Hope Liam is back to clicking on all cylinders by end of February. So a rotation of 8-9
Starters: Reed, Alex, McNeeley, Ball Diarra
Subs Johnson(15-20), Stewart 18-22 for McNeeley/AK, Mahaney/Nowell(??) as much as needed to spell Diarra/Ball

BE Champs finals, Deep run NCAA

Skys the limit

 

[storrsroars]

And that's why making these broad conclusions based on simple plus minus is not smart, and is why it's generally considered one of the worst basketball stats to use. Especially as you expand it over a full season, there's so many lineup and possession factors that get missed.

If you look at the advanced stats that try to weed out the noise in plus minus like BPM, you do see that Stewart is above both Ross and Mahaney

View attachment 106121

And even that seems odd, at least to my memory. Samson Johnson better on D than Reed? AK better on offense than Liam?

About the only thing that looks like solid data is how Jaylin stacks up comparatively.

I will note that I don't have the depth of knowledge of hoops advanced metrics that I do for baseball, so I could be missing nuance.

 

[storrsroars]

While Liam is out, I'd sit Ross, push Nowell until he shows that he can or cannot make a contribution now, continue to use Stewart at least 20 minutes, probably 25 min/game. Mahaney @ PG if Nowell can't cut it spelling Hassan, and if he can, spelling Ball only. I'm ambivalent/confused by the 5 tandem. I lean towards Reed starting and getting 20-25 with Sam off the bench for 15-20. Some of our metrics guys show Samsons value statistically, while I just think Reed gives us more via eyeballs and gut. That leaves Ball, Hassan and Alex, who have established their value and usage, though Ball is still evolving rapidly(+). Hope Liam is back to clicking on all cylinders by end of February. So a rotation of 8-9
Starters: Reed, Alex, McNeeley, Ball Diarra
Subs Johnson(15-20), Stewart 18-22 for McNeeley/AK, Mahaney/Nowell(??) as much as needed to spell Diarra/Ball

BE Champs finals, Deep run NCAA

Skys the limit

Hass isn't going to sit for long spells. If Nowell can't deliver, I'd consider using Ball as primary ballhandler keeping AM off ball for offense.

Castle was hardly ever the guy bringing the ball upcourt last year. That was Newton, Hass, sometimes Cam. But Castle was doing it for almost all his minutes last night vs the Bucks. I think Ball could handle it in short spurts. AM leaves me concerned (like committing a back and forth).

 

[ctchamps]

And that's why making these broad conclusions based on simple plus minus is not smart, and is why it's generally considered one of the worst basketball stats to use. Especially as you expand it over a full season, there's so many lineup and possession factors that get missed.

If you look at the advanced stats that try to weed out the noise in plus minus like BPM, you do see that Stewart is above both Ross and Mahaney

View attachment 106121

And Samson’s ahead of everyone.

In what world does Solo have a better DBPM than Liam?

 

[Gurleyman]

No. Game was lost when Dan Hurley brain spasmed and put AM and JR when we had just taken the lead and had all the momentum with about 7 min to go and within 2 awful possessions we were immediately down 2. That was one of the worst lineups we’ve thrown out on the floor in the last 4 years.

Coupled with totally ignoring Reed and Stewart in the 2nd half which were considerable advantages we had.

THEN the awful sequence at the end just to seal the worst coached game of the last three years.

For gods sake, it was Kyle Neptune on the other bench. Nova was just waiting to fold.

We were down 4 when he went to Ross and Mahaney together - and that was the lineup got us the lead up 2. Mahaney checked in when we were down 47-40 after Stewart picked up his third - when it makes sense to get him a blow so he doesn’t get a tired fourth and we have him available to guard Dixon down the stretch. He hadn’t come out in the second half yet and he was playing heavier minutes than he was used to.

Ross came in down 53-49 for Diarra, moving Mahaney to the point. We scored on our next three possessions, which was really Ball going off more than anything (two Ball threes - assisted by Mahaney - and a Reed layup assisted by Ball) to go ahead 57-55. Then Nova took the lead back 59-57 after Ross had his shot blocked - when he drove instead of passing to a wide open Ball off a curl and we went back to our starters then.

Playing Mahaney and Ross together in theory makes sense. You lose some offense putting Ross in, and Mahaney gives you a little more scoring punch to balance it. But Ross wasn’t great on D and Mahaney wasn’t great on O yesterday.

 

[RuffRuff]

We were down 4 when he went to Ross and Mahaney together - and that was the lineup got us the lead up 2. Mahaney checked in when we were down 47-40 after Stewart picked up his third - when it makes sense to get him a blow so he doesn’t get a tired fourth and we have him available to guard Dixon down the stretch. He hadn’t come out in the second half yet and he was playing heavier minutes than he was used to.

Ross came in down 53-49 for Diarra, moving Mahaney to the point. We scored on our next three possessions, which was really Ball going off more than anything (two Ball threes - assisted by Mahaney - and a Reed layup assisted by Ball) to go ahead 57-55. Then Nova took the lead back 59-57 after Ross had his shot blocked - when he drove instead of passing to a wide open Ball off a curl and we went back to our starters then.

Playing Mahaney and Ross together in theory makes sense. You lose some offense putting Ross in, and Mahaney gives you a little more scoring punch to balance it. But Ross wasn’t great on D and Mahaney wasn’t great on O yesterday.

Wonder twins activate!

 

[Hunt for 7]

Saw that last night - crazy stat. Heard some say he bricked his free throws, not bricks. He back rimmed both, which would suggest a bit amped up/nerves. Live and learn.

When a missed free throw comes off the rim almost back to the foul line back rim or not come on man that is a brick. He had no arc on the ball the first one would have landed almost past the third man on right side of the lane if Solo had not stepped in and grabbed it, the second one landed outside the lane almost all the way back to the foul line.

These were not what would be called soft touch misses. When a free throw comes off the rim faster than it was shot that is almost the definition of clank/brick. When you have arc on the ball and it hits the back of the rim physics almost dictates that the ball bounces more straight up not right back at the shooter.

They were both line drives with no chance. And I also understand that Alex really does not usually put much arc on his free throws. Which makes for a smaller margin for error. And when other variables like pressure or just knowing you had a bad game and want to really help the team are part of the equation you can use a larger margin for error.

But you know who really cares a miss is a miss but don’t sugar coat it they were bad misses for a player like Alex. This is not a shot at Alex he is a 80+ % free throw shooter so usually the ball clears the front rim on its way down and he makes 8.2 out of ten.

 

[uconnfan68]

I get that +/- can be a strange stat, and yes it is team based, but it is consistent. Stew has legit been a minus in every game against a high D1 opponent. He's -52 in the 11 games against real opponents.

A game like last night, where he scored 14 and played 30 minutes, and he still was -6. The TEAM aspect starts to go out the window a bit when other members of the team have consistently better +/-. When I brought this up last week someone immediately said that it was because Stew tends to be on the court w/ Aidan. Aidan is a positive +/- for the year. I honestly don't get it and don't know what to do with it. I think if we brought out a stat that Jayden or Aidan were crazy negative for the year (Ross is) people would immediately say that that is a clear indication. But with Stew, it's not. And he has far and away the worst +/- on the team.

All I saw was Stew as the only person we had that could play Dixon 1-1. And he played great on offense too.

 

[dennismenace]

Blair was not a 3pt threat. Completely different game.

Dixon reminds me of Hopkins. Three level scorer and toughness. All-Opponent worthy.

 

[dennismenace]

When a missed free throw comes off the rim almost back to the foul line back rim or not come on man that is a brick. He had no arc on the ball the first one would have landed almost past the third man on right side of the lane if Solo had not stepped in and grabbed it, the second one landed outside the lane almost all the way back to the foul line.

These were not what would be called soft touch misses. When a free throw comes off the rim faster than it was shot that is almost the definition of clank/brick. When you have arc on the ball and it hits the back of the rim physics almost dictates that the ball bounces more straight up not right back at the shooter.

They were both line drives with no chance. And I also understand that Alex really does not usually put much arc on his free throws. Which makes for a smaller margin for error. And when other variables like pressure or just knowing you had a bad game and want to really help the team are part of the equation you can use a larger margin for error.

But you know who really cares a miss is a miss but don’t sugar coat it they were bad misses for a player like Alex. This is not a shot at Alex he is a 80+ % free throw shooter so usually the ball clears the front rim on its way down and he makes 8.2 out of ten.

Besides asking him to do things that may be beyond his capabilities or talents maybe he might play a little better if he wasn't also playing in the high 30's minutes every game. Physical and emotional (team leader/"coach on the floor" etc) demands eventually show up. Maybe he was a little burned out by the end of the game. It's lonely being at the top. Confident he will rebound but Dan Hurley needs to keep an open mind.

 

[jibsey]

I think this team is very good but not great. It has been player close games against some pretty average competition and it finally came back to bite them. But I think it is not totally unexpected, especially when a key guy is missing. Teams need to adjust when a major piece of the lineup goes down and it is not unusual for that to take a couple of games. Last year we lost to Seton Hall when Clingan went down. And that was an experienced team. This one is much less experienced. You need to figure out who takes the shot, or makes the play the injured guy typically made. It often takes a few games to re-establish the approach. With luck they right the ship at Georgetown and Liam is back shortly.

Our next five games I would take 3-2, hoping we have Liam for Marquette. Last 2 years we had Newton driving to the rim to take the shot and Alex does not have the speed or athleticism to hang in the air for that. So the question becomes who can do that with Liam out? Hass but he’s small so no, it’s not Solo. Stew could be the answer with his size and good touch on shots. He is a scorer.

 

[RuffRuff]

He addresses Mr Hot B@lls!

 

[Zissou]

Dixon reminds me of Hopkins. Three level scorer and toughness. All-Opponent worthy.

Dixon has often been a post island playing against bigger centers in prior years.

I credit Dixon for demanding more big support playing WITH him, so he is more matched to a 4. Demanding this as a condition of his return.

Boakye and Parker combining for over 30 minutes allows Dixon to thrive.

MMCN (much maligned coach Neptune) deserves some praise here as well.

 

[boog204]

All I saw was Stew as the only person we had that could play Dixon 1-1. And he played great on offense too.

I agree! Thought it was Stew's best game as a Husky on both sides of the ball. I just have no idea why his +/- stats seem to always indicate otherwise.

 

[boog204]

And that's why making these broad conclusions based on simple plus minus is not smart, and is why it's generally considered one of the worst basketball stats to use. Especially as you expand it over a full season, there's so many lineup and possession factors that get missed.

If you look at the advanced stats that try to weed out the noise in plus minus like BPM, you do see that Stewart is above both Ross and Mahaney

View attachment 106121

Thx for the advanced stats... Issue I have with the BPM is that they are purely box score based. As such, Samson looks like our most productive player. We all know he's not. Then you look at McNeeley's #'s and he looks like he's not as valuable as he is. And I think we all know at this point that he's our best player. And the defensive stuff, too. Ball is in the positive defensively, meaning he is an average defender. He gets a steal a game so it skews the reality a little bit.

I 100% agree that any +/- stat in basketball cannot be fully depended on. I just find it peculiar that Stew is always in the negative regardless of if he's starting and playing minutes with Hass, AK or coming off the bench with Ross and Aidan.

 

[Umami Zen]

Dixon has often been a post island playing against bigger centers in prior years.

I credit Dixon for demanding more big support playing WITH him, so he is more matched to a 4. Demanding this as a condition of his return.

Boakye and Parker combining for over 30 minutes allows Dixon to thrive.

MMCN (much maligned coach Neptune) deserves some praise here as well.

Expecting you guys to take down Slick Rick

 

[gsmooth]

Dixon has often been a post island playing against bigger centers in prior years.

I credit Dixon for demanding more big support playing WITH him, so he is more matched to a 4. Demanding this as a condition of his return.

Boakye and Parker combining for over 30 minutes allows Dixon to thrive.

MMCN (much maligned coach Neptune) deserves some praise here as well.

Dixon is a beast, a high scoring beast that is tough to defend. Him shooting 3s the way he does shows his growth. Remember this guy was having brawls in the post with Sanogo two years ago. Dixon vs Sanogo was the perfect example of unstoppable force vs immovable object.

MMCN deserves credit for the #10 offense in the country according to KenPom. The biggest challenge against Nova now is how to stop their offense.

 

[6Nattys4Us]

+/- is simply the score change while the player is on the floor.

So right off the jump if the other team gets the ball and flashes a quick 3, all 5 UConn players would be -3. If no lineup changes happen and we get a layup all 5 jump from -3 to -1.

The problem is when someone comes in off the bench, say Ross, and has zero to do with a play but the other team scores, Ross is -2 as of then.

+/- is patently poor if switches happen just before the other team shoots 2 free throws. You are on the floor with the score changing by 2 so you are -2 without doing anything.