Villanova Post Game Thread

[RuffRuff]

Yup, season was always going to come down to how good the sophomores and Liam can be.

It’s starting to round into that more and more. But last night drawing up the last two plays for Diarra and Karaban kind of shows we are still working on coming to grips with that.

Diarra and Karaban are elite level role players for this team. But we have to let these young guys take over (Liam already has done so).

IDK, part of this just may be Hurley wanting his vets/leaders to be the guy in that spot as part of his honor system and where his confidence level is.

As we saw, refs tend to have a favorable whistle for those kinda guys too. If AK made those free throws this would be a different conversation.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I apologize to the board.

At some point when I was touting him years ago I made a prediction that he could go his career without missing 2 foul shots in a row. Ouch, In a clutch situation. My comment was a jinx and I own it. Bad Ricker. Bad Ricker.

I have a sneaky feeling that come March Alex will be in a similar situation and will nail his FTs. Feels fitting.

 

[Deleted at users request]

IDK, part of this just may be Hurley wanting his vets/leaders to be the guy in that spot as part of his honor system and where his confidence level is.

As we saw, refs tend to have a favorable whistle for those kinda guys too. If AK made those free throws this would be a different conversation.

Possibly. But in three straight possessions those guys struggled to get great looks. Karaban got blocked twice and the call was a total bailout call if we’re being honest.

It would’ve been lucky in the first place. That just shouldn’t be their game and it’s setting them up for failure to ask that of them.

 

[RuffRuff]

Look at those feet move! That is d my friends, that’s how you do it.

 

[PAHusky]

Yeah… he’s the best 3 and D guy in the country. He’s great if you have those expectations for him. If you expect him to be the best player and All-American though you’ll be disappointed. And it’ll be nobody’s fault but your own.

Neither his shot this year nor his defense especially warrants calling him the best 3 and D guy in the country this year

 

[PAHusky]

I blame Diarra for the ending. He was open for 3 off the inbound with about 12-15 seconds left and he passed it. Should've taken the shot- he probably would have made it.

Way too much time on the clock and Diarra is an ok to not great shooter - I don't blame him running some offense. With hindsight it seems questionable but at the time was intelligent

 

[Mike Honcho]

Stewart’s minutes are reduced because he’s playing behind Liam, Alex and our two centers. Ross is not taking his positional minutes.

We are struggling to come up with good options for the 1 and 2.

If Ball or Aidan can demonstrate they can play defense at the level Cam did last season Ross’s minutes will come down significantly. If not we have to hope Ross figures things out.

As to why Hurley talks up Ross more you’ll have to ask him. My guess is he recognizes that Ross needs more encouragement than Stewart. But that treatment is no reason for this forum to dump on Ross.

Based on what we saw last season, there was no indication Ross was going to be a contributor in year 2. Obviously Hurley feels differently given what Ross is producing in practice and thinks a light bulb is going to go off this season, but right now I think people are feeling fairly vindicated in their assessment and are waiting to be proven wrong.

 

[QDOG5]

Tough loss last night. Most of the chat has been about our offense which is actually very good (Evan Miya ranks us 4th in the country). It's our D that is bad (Miya 84th). We should discuss this more. Diarra is an excellent defender. JStew had his best D game last night. But, as someone posted above, Solo may give up more points on D than he scores on O. He consistently gets beat off the dribble and when he is off ball he ball watches and misses his box out assignments. You could be sitting on the bench and give an upfake and JRoss will leave his feet. Samson, excellent shot blocker and high hedger but takes himself out of games with silly fouls. Mahaney always seems like he's the mouse in the house. I'm sure Dan Hurley is aware and coaching them up but until the D improves we are susceptible to losses like Nova happening again.

 

[Deleted at users request]

Neither his shot this year nor his defense especially warrants calling him the best 3 and D guy in the country this year

We aren’t asking him to be that this year. He’s asked to do a lot more.

If there was one thing he could’ve improved on to be the guy we wanted him to be it would’ve been his post game. It’s a place on the floor where his IQ could excel without him having to be a great athlete.

 

[superjohn]

We’re running out of options with upside. Diarra and Reed are already playing better than anyone could have reasonably expected. Samson is who he is. So if Alex cant go to another level than who are we pinning our hopes on? Certainly not Mahaney or Ross. Nowell doesn’t play. So that leaves Ball and/or Stew.

We haven't even scratched the surface with how good Reed can be. We're badly underutilizing him. Solo is getting better each game. Stewart hasn't gotten much of a chance but he clearly has game and upside. Nowell had a shoulder injury, we don't know if that's why he hasn't played in a while up until last night. Top 35 recruit, he clearly has more upside than we've seen. Hurley admitted to using Mahaney wrong up until the game against Providence. He had 15 against Providence and zip last night. I think there's upside there now that I expect Hurley to use him in his proper roll.

The biggest problem is we aren't using Tarris nearly enough. He's an unstoppable force down low.

 

[PAHusky]

We aren’t asking him to be that this year. He’s asked to do a lot more.

If there was one thing he could’ve improved on to be the guy we wanted him to be it would’ve been his post game. It’s a place on the floor where his IQ could excel without him having to be a great athlete.

Right but you just called him the best 3 and D guy in the country. He's not this year, by a long shot. I think you mean he's the best glue guy in the country, which is true, and we're asking a Robin to be a Batman

 

[Mike Honcho]

I wish our guys would stop trying to draw offensive fouls at away games during crunch time. Refs are going to call a blocking foul or swallow the whistle.

This is an interesting take after we did exactly that -- drew an offensive foul with 3 seconds left on the clock and our best FT shooter on the line with a chance to win the game.

 

[Mike Honcho]

I actually disagree.

NBA teams would use him in his intended role as a super-glue-guy.

The square-peg-round-hole issues he's encountering now is because some people are under the misconception that the next step for an elite glue guy is to become a go-to scorer, when they're actually completely different roles. It's like expecting an elite 1st baseman to go step in and play catcher.

Not only this, but it's a mentality. A lot of NBA guys are forced into being glue guys after being the man every step of their development. It's unnatural and forces a level of humility they're unaccustomed to. Kids like Andre and Alex don't have that problem... they're team-first low-ego guys who will do all of the little things to win.

 

[Umami Zen]

This is an interesting take after we did exactly that -- drew an offensive foul with 3 seconds left on the clock and our best FT shooter on the line with a chance to win the game.

How many FTs did we have for the game?

 

[PAHusky]

• the problem with AK on the offensive end is that he can't beat anyone with decent footspeed off the dribble and has no midrange game, so he's reduced to straight line drives at the rim or increasingly deep 3's when he's asked to create. He needs to recognize he's best as a complimentary option again this year. Offense needs to be built around others
• who are those others? I guess Solo, Diarra and Stewart until Liam comes back, though I'm not sure why we don't use Reed more frequently. He had some impressive finishes in the first half and then....nothing ran through him
• encouraged by Solo's drives/passing in the second half. His on ball defense is getting....a little better? Still gets lost off ball
• I'm actually impressed Diarra didn't shoot that. I really feel like the most underrated thing about Diarra is that he's figured out exactly who he is as a player and has played within himself much more because of it
• Stewart needs to start. I think the kid needs pressure/spotlight/starting spot to get it going, give it to him
• the Ross experiment needs to end. He's a defense first guy who can't play defense. He has some strong defenders on this board who insist we keep giving him time to develop but this isn't the year for that. Hope he puts it together next year
• Nowell looked appropriately timid but think he'll be fine
• we should probably as a board collectively can the neptune jokes when we, you know, lose games to neptune's team
• this team just seems like it has a hard ceiling, which isn't something we were used to the last few years

 

[Mike Honcho]

How many FTs did we have for the game?

4.

Listen, you can argue with the end result all you want, but pretty sure this game isn't the right datapoint to build your argument around. Lol

 

[Umami Zen]

4.

Listen, you can argue with the end result all you want, but pretty sure this game isn't the right datapoint to build your argument around. Lol

It's the game I was referring to in my post LOL

Edit: For clarification my comment in OP was re: us on defense-Not on offense.

 

[Deleted at users request]

Right but you just called him the best 3 and D guy in the country. He's not this year, by a long shot. I think you mean he's the best glue guy in the country, which is true, and we're asking a Robin to be a Batman

Yeah I mean typically and ideally. You’re right he’s not that right now. And we’re on the same page with the general assessment.

 

[boog204]

The +/- is a TEAM thing. He just happened to be on the floor then. Could have been worse without him.

I get that +/- can be a strange stat, and yes it is team based, but it is consistent. Stew has legit been a minus in every game against a high D1 opponent. He's -52 in the 11 games against real opponents.

A game like last night, where he scored 14 and played 30 minutes, and he still was -6. The TEAM aspect starts to go out the window a bit when other members of the team have consistently better +/-. When I brought this up last week someone immediately said that it was because Stew tends to be on the court w/ Aidan. Aidan is a positive +/- for the year. I honestly don't get it and don't know what to do with it. I think if we brought out a stat that Jayden or Aidan were crazy negative for the year (Ross is) people would immediately say that that is a clear indication. But with Stew, it's not. And he has far and away the worst +/- on the team.

 

[ctchamps]

Ross has not looked good, he was lost a few times on O and D, and he’s not playing confidently or consistently.

He’s not the major reason we lost of course, but him filling in for an important piece and somewhat regressing, rather than “stepping up” is worthy of discussion.

Ross is clearly showing talent and skill set to be excited about, but everything I see is simple as a kid not being fully confident and ready yet. He’s a bit all over rather than just playing.

Definitely worthy of discussion.

That first drive of his resulting in a turnover was a mess. But his second drive to the basket wasn't. I think it's a shame people who are so annoyed with his play can't isolate what he did there. He was quick, decisive and under control until the very end.

He constantly falls for the up fake. Solo still does but to a much lesser extent than earlier in the season. How many minutes has Solo played before he didn't fall for it every time? How much shade was thrown Solo's way because of it? Thankfully Solo's shooting negates some of the bad defense and now people are moderating their statements regarding the things he needs to develop.

What I notice is Solo has gotten better at identifying where his player is on the court and following the action on defense ready to get a rebound or help out on an opposing team's pick and roll. That's one thing Ross figured out from the start. Not many people have observed that.

 

[RuffRuff]

We haven't even scratched the surface with how good Reed can be. We're badly underutilizing him. Solo is getting better each game. Stewart hasn't gotten much of a chance but he clearly has game and upside. Nowell had a shoulder injury, we don't know if that's why he hasn't played in a while up until last night. Top 35 recruit, he clearly has more upside than we've seen. Hurley admitted to using Mahaney wrong up until the game against Providence. He had 15 against Providence and zip last night. I think there's upside there now that I expect Hurley to use him in his proper roll.

The biggest problem is we aren't using Tarris nearly enough. He's an unstoppable force down low.

And if we ever want to close the gap on the constant free throw shooting disparity, he's how we do it. That said, our offense isn't the issue, at all.

 

[UCan3]

Good call. That was not a foul in the second drive to the basket.

I think at the end of a game, if you going to call that play, than the player selected to run it has to have a history of finishing with contact - foul calls are hard to come by in the last few seconds.

Alex isn’t tall enough to impose his will like this on a drive to the hoop at the end of game play. Tarris maybe?


He isn’t quick enough to blow by somebody. Diarra maybe?



If the coaches called this play, then it’s on them.

Also, the way Solo was shooting I would have looked for him and gotten the bigs near the hoop.

 

[HooperScooper]

I have a sneaky feeling that come March Alex will be in a similar situation and will nail his FTs. Feels fitting.

Feels like the RJ Cole situation a few years ago. Remember the game against Creighton he missed 2 free throws that would have sealed the game and then Creighton came down and scored sending the game to OT where they eventually won? He took it pretty hard and said it would never happen again. And it didn't. I'm assuming this is how Karaban will deal with it also.

 

[freescooter]

I think this team is very good but not great. It has been player close games against some pretty average competition and it finally came back to bite them. But I think it is not totally unexpected, especially when a key guy is missing. Teams need to adjust when a major piece of the lineup goes down and it is not unusual for that to take a couple of games. Last year we lost to Seton Hall when Clingan went down. And that was an experienced team. This one is much less experienced. You need to figure out who takes the shot, or makes the play the injured guy typically made. It often takes a few games to re-establish the approach. With luck they right the ship at Georgetown and Liam is back shortly.

 

[navery12]

I get that +/- can be a strange stat, and yes it is team based, but it is consistent. Stew has legit been a minus in every game against a high D1 opponent. He's -52 in the 11 games against real opponents.

A game like last night, where he scored 14 and played 30 minutes, and he still was -6. The TEAM aspect starts to go out the window a bit when other members of the team have consistently better +/-. When I brought this up last week someone immediately said that it was because Stew tends to be on the court w/ Aidan. Aidan is a positive +/- for the year. I honestly don't get it and don't know what to do with it. I think if we brought out a stat that Jayden or Aidan were crazy negative for the year (Ross is) people would immediately say that that is a clear indication. But with Stew, it's not. And he has far and away the worst +/- on the team.

And that's why making these broad conclusions based on simple plus minus is not smart, and is why it's generally considered one of the worst basketball stats to use. Especially as you expand it over a full season, there's so many lineup and possession factors that get missed.

If you look at the advanced stats that try to weed out the noise in plus minus like BPM, you do see that Stewart is above both Ross and Mahaney

 

[AllHusky]

We’re running out of options with upside. Diarra and Reed are already playing better than anyone could have reasonably expected. Samson is who he is. So if Alex cant go to another level than who are we pinning our hopes on? Certainly not Mahaney or Ross. Nowell doesn’t play. So that leaves Ball and/or Stew.

While Liam is out, I'd sit Ross, push Nowell until he shows that he can or cannot make a contribution now, continue to use Stewart at least 20 minutes, probably 25 min/game. Mahaney @ PG if Nowell can't cut it spelling Hassan, and if he can, spelling Ball only. I'm ambivalent/confused by the 5 tandem. I lean towards Reed starting and getting 20-25 with Sam off the bench for 15-20. Some of our metrics guys show Samsons value statistically, while I just think Reed gives us more via eyeballs and gut. That leaves Ball, Hassan and Alex, who have established their value and usage, though Ball is still evolving rapidly(+). Hope Liam is back to clicking on all cylinders by end of February. So a rotation of 8-9
Starters: Reed, Alex, McNeeley, Ball Diarra
Subs Johnson(15-20), Stewart 18-22 for McNeeley/AK, Mahaney/Nowell(??) as much as needed to spell Diarra/Ball

BE Champs finals, Deep run NCAA

Skys the limit

 

[storrsroars]

And that's why making these broad conclusions based on simple plus minus is not smart, and is why it's generally considered one of the worst basketball stats to use. Especially as you expand it over a full season, there's so many lineup and possession factors that get missed.

If you look at the advanced stats that try to weed out the noise in plus minus like BPM, you do see that Stewart is above both Ross and Mahaney

View attachment 106121

And even that seems odd, at least to my memory. SJ better on D than Reed? AK better on offense than Liam?

About the only thing that looks like solid data is how Jaylin stacks up comparatively.

I will note that I don't have the depth of knowledge of hoops advanced metrics that I do for baseball, so I could be missing nuance.

 

[storrsroars]

While Liam is out, I'd sit Ross, push Nowell until he shows that he can or cannot make a contribution now, continue to use Stewart at least 20 minutes, probably 25 min/game. Mahaney @ PG if Nowell can't cut it spelling Hassan, and if he can, spelling Ball only. I'm ambivalent/confused by the 5 tandem. I lean towards Reed starting and getting 20-25 with Sam off the bench for 15-20. Some of our metrics guys show Samsons value statistically, while I just think Reed gives us more via eyeballs and gut. That leaves Ball, Hassan and Alex, who have established their value and usage, though Ball is still evolving rapidly(+). Hope Liam is back to clicking on all cylinders by end of February. So a rotation of 8-9
Starters: Reed, Alex, McNeeley, Ball Diarra
Subs Johnson(15-20), Stewart 18-22 for McNeeley/AK, Mahaney/Nowell(??) as much as needed to spell Diarra/Ball

BE Champs finals, Deep run NCAA

Skys the limit

Hass isn't going to sit for long spells. If Nowell can't deliver, I'd consider using Ball as primary ballhandler keeping AM off ball for offense.

Castle was hardly ever the guy bringing the ball upcourt last year. That was Newton, Hass, sometimes Cam. But Castle was doing it for almost all his minutes last night vs the Bucks. I think Ball could handle it in short spurts. AM leaves me concerned (like committing a back and forth).

 

[ctchamps]

And that's why making these broad conclusions based on simple plus minus is not smart, and is why it's generally considered one of the worst basketball stats to use. Especially as you expand it over a full season, there's so many lineup and possession factors that get missed.

If you look at the advanced stats that try to weed out the noise in plus minus like BPM, you do see that Stewart is above both Ross and Mahaney

View attachment 106121

And Samson’s ahead of everyone.

In what world does Solo have a better DBPM than Liam?

 

[Gurleyman]

No. Game was lost when Dan Hurley brain spasmed and put AM and JR when we had just taken the lead and had all the momentum with about 7 min to go and within 2 awful possessions we were immediately down 2. That was one of the worst lineups we’ve thrown out on the floor in the last 4 years.

Coupled with totally ignoring Reed and Stewart in the 2nd half which were considerable advantages we had.

THEN the awful sequence at the end just to seal the worst coached game of the last three years.

For gods sake, it was Kyle Neptune on the other bench. Nova was just waiting to fold.

We were down 4 when he went to Ross and Mahaney together - and that was the lineup got us the lead up 2. Mahaney checked in when we were down 47-40 after Stewart picked up his third - when it makes sense to get him a blow so he doesn’t get a tired fourth and we have him available to guard Dixon down the stretch. He hadn’t come out in the second half yet and he was playing heavier minutes than he was used to.

Ross came in down 53-49 for Diarra, moving Mahaney to the point. We scored on our next three possessions, which was really Ball going off more than anything (two Ball threes - assisted by Mahaney - and a Reed layup assisted by Ball) to go ahead 57-55. Then Nova took the lead back 59-57 after Ross had his shot blocked - when he drove instead of passing to a wide open Ball off a curl and we went back to our starters then.

Playing Mahaney and Ross together in theory makes sense. You lose some offense putting Ross in, and Mahaney gives you a little more scoring punch to balance it. But Ross wasn’t great on D and Mahaney wasn’t great on O yesterday.